Grant KIA\POW during the Raid on Camp Johnston\Battle of Belmont?

ReconGuy02

ReconGuy02

As some of you know, Battle of Belmont was a raid by Grant's Cairo Brigade on Confederate entrenchments and a Johnston Camp on November, 7th 1861.
There was a moment after camp burning by Federal troops, when Grant didn't realise 7th Iowa Skirmishers already left the crossroads immediately in the aftermath of camp capture and boarded on ships. As a result, Grant rode straight into advancing Confederate lines, was shot at, but managed to escape to the landing untouched. However, at the moment, entiriety of Cairo Brigade already boarded up, and ships began sailing off the bank. Grant then rode his horse and managed to perform almost impossible gallop over gangplank of one of ships and ultimately became the last man to board upon the expedition ships.

My question, is simple as it is. What if Grant is shot during the retreat confusion or is captured by CSA militiamen after himself failing to gallop over the water between bank and ship?
Assuming he isn't exchanged later if he becomes POW.

How this would influence Western Theater in 1862-1863?
Anyone willing to contribute?
 
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GuildedAgeNostalgia

Fort Donelson and Henry still fall to a different commander, although it's probably a slower campaign.

Buell will still force Johnston out of Kentucky and Northern Tennessee.

The Confederates probably still launch a invasion of Tennessee in Spring of 1862, but idk if it happens at Shiloh or not.

Vicksburg won't fall in 1863, but Port Hudson still will so we'll see Vicksburg probably fall in 1864.

Meade depending on butterflies still remains in de facto and de jure control of the Army of the Potomac.

When Buell is eventually replaced, Rosecrans will probably retain command of the Army of the Cumberland for the entirety of the war. If not Thomas or Burnside gets it.
 
ReconGuy02

ReconGuy02

GuildedAgeNostalgia said:
Fort Donelson and Henry still fall to a different commander, although it's probably a slower campaign.

Buell will still force Johnston out of Kentucky and Northern Tennessee.

The Confederates probably still launch a invasion of Tennessee in Spring of 1862, but idk if it happens at Shiloh or not.

Vicksburg won't fall in 1863, but Port Hudson still will so we'll see Vicksburg probably fall in 1864.

Meade depending on butterflies still remains in de facto and de jure control of the Army of the Potomac.

When Buell is eventually replaced, Rosecrans will probably retain command of the Army of the Cumberland for the entirety of the war. If not Thomas or Burnside gets it.
Click to expand...
I am mostly interested in a battle which would be analogue to OTL Shiloh. If it still happens, and Johnston is not killed, it's entirely possible that with Buell in charge of the AotC, it doesn't end in a CSA defeat and confederates may be sucessful enough on this theater to prevent Vicksburg falling until late 1864 or even early 1865.
 
Arnold d.c

Arnold d.c

With Grant out of the picture, the Union command at Cairo automatically goes to John A. McClernand. McClernand's ascension will probably bring a lot of command conflict in what will become the Army of the Tennessee, perhaps removing that Union army's greatest strength of command unity. When the U.S. forces in Cairo and Paducah are united to form the first, there will be a conflict over who's in command. The two top contenders for command are John McClernand and Charles F. Smith. McClernand has seniority and political backing unlike C.F. Smith, but Halleck would definitely try to sideline him in favor of the old regular. It is interesting to note that one of the few times Halleck actively helped Grant was to ensure that McClernand would not have an independent command during the Vicksburg Campaign despite Lincoln's authorization. Simply put, if Halleck disliked Grant, he despised McClernand.

On the other hand, if C.F. Smith is chosen, then he has two division commanders that will be working to remove him. Lew Wallace was not a friend of C.F. Smith. After an issue related to regulations, Lew Wallace felt slighted and conspired to have C.F. Smith removed.

For the Fort Henry-Donelson campaign, I think it will still go ahead. C.F. Smith's personal reconnaissance of Fort Henry was what revealed the Confederate weakness at Fort Henry and stiffened Halleck's will to authorize the expedition. Both McClernand and C.F. Smith urged and agreed with Grant's move to Fort Donelson so I still see the Fort Donelson being besieged. There's a possibility the Fort Donelson could breakout but given the combined incompetence of S.B. Buckner, Floyd and Pillow, I don't rate it likely.

The push to Corinth will be interesting. A Confederate counterattack is guaranteed to happen but where will it fall? Historically, Grant was responsible for bringing the entire army to Pittsburg Landing from the much safer Savannah, but C.F. Smith was responsible for pushing Lew Wallace's and W.T. Sherman's Divisions to Crump's Landing and Pittsburg Landing while commanding in Grant's absence. Hypothetically, the Confederate attack could find two isolated divisions to destroy rather than the entire Army of the Tennessee. While not absolutely devastating, it would be very embarrassing for the Union, morale lifting for the Confederates and there will be a lot of finger pointing.

As for Vicksburg, I don't think Vicksburg will fall unless the Confederates commit an incredible blunder such as say removing all of Pemberton's remaining cavalry and pulling the bulk of his infantry to Tennessee. Grant's final campaign for Vicksburg went completely against conventional wisdom of the time. All of his generals, ironically with McClernand as the only exception, opposed the maneuver, arguing it was a suicide mission. Without the southern approach, the Union approach is limited to operating in the bayou or taking the path of Grant's first Vicksburg campaign. The first is unlikely to succeed and the second could succeed but only if the Confederates blunder in somehow failing to interdict the long Union line of communication. This locks the Army of the Tennessee in the Mississippi, which could have serious implications for the Atlanta Campaign.
 
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