Drive 'em from our soil!
Agree. What's really at issue IMO is when Grant takes command. Does he prevent Brandy Station? It was defeat there OTL which provoked Stuart into his stupid "ride around the Federals" & kept him out of Gettysburg. Of course, even with Grant present, had Lee shown a trifle more sense, he'd have pushed his lead elements (Reynolds? can't recall offhand) to be on the hill enfilading Cemetery Ridge by nightfall the first day (they almost were OTL), & it wouldn't have made a damn bit of difference who commanded the Federals; they'd have had to pull back. I see no reason the breaks should all go to the Federals, & if we've changed enough to have Grant as GinC, fair's fair giving Lee a nudge. So, the Feds pull back.
That said, the question becomes, "What does Grant do next?" This is one for a real ACW buff (which I am not, sorry to say). Where would Grant have been able to stand? And does that give him the ability to produce a defeat Lee psychologically can't recover from? It's usually presumed a Confederate victory here means the South survives. (I like the Gingrich et al. approach, where it means a fatal meatgrinder that brings Lee to his senses, better.)
LOL.
I do like how this reads, as far as I've gotten...
Actually, as far as a Gettysburg that results in a Southern victory, I still agree completely with Newt Gingrich, I, omigod, I aaaagh...* Oh, OK, Where was I? Thank God for Tums. As the good Speaker said, Lee could win the battle, but not the war. In Gingrich's books, politics take over and Lee is tasked with "restoring" Maryland to the Confederacy and even taking Washington!
The South had to strip the entire nation of its reserves, creating a "Fourth Corps" under General Beauregard. I hardly need tell you what happens in the end. The circumstances at Gettysburg simply did not allow for an overwhelming war ending victory for the Confederacy. No matter how successful Lee could have been, there were too many Union troops out of his grasp.
Checkout the events prior ITTL. Not only my own writing, but the setup in the discussions by Paul V McNutt and the other contributors. A crushing victory at Shiloh for the North. Grant takes Corinth. Grant uses his "Third" strategy FIRST to take Vicksburg. The Mississippi is restored to Union control nearly a full year sooner. Thanks to Bragg's chicanery, the Confederate Army is intact and/or reconstituted. But it is Sherman, following his own Chattanooga victory, who is building up a base while trying to deal with a frustrating Nathan Bedford Forrest. Yes, no Chickamauga (yet?)
ITTL, Grant arrived on June 15th, a very important date. Brandy station had occurred on Jun 9th, so the humiliated Stuart is already raring to go. But IOTL, Stuart was given his orders and departed on June 22nd. Ever since, historians have argued what the nature of his orders were. But there IS general agreement on this: Lee did NOT order Stuart to go on a "ride around the enemy" as he had done twice before, and Stuart never expected to find himself running THROUGH the enemy army, instead of around it.
There were two Corps commanders in the AoNV who thought highly of General Grant. Stuart wasn't one of them. There is no evidence he didn't think any less of Grant (He could hardly have ignored Grant's record), but his concern would have been only the AotP's cavalry. He was looking for revenge, for redemption. The AotP's cavalry arm was, after starting out as a laughing stock, becoming a very potent force indeed. It could honestly be said that the elan of the AotP's infantry was lost at Fredericksburg and picked up by the cavalry at Brandy Station.
As far as Lee showing more sense, this was a man who suffered an undiagnosed heart attack during the spring. He belonged in a cardiac ICU, on aspirin and nitroglycerin, at the very least. He did not belong in the field, leading an army. As my earlier posts related, Lee, after Chancellorsville, was suffering the same "Victory Disease" as Imperial Japan in the early days of WWII. There was just no way to convince him that he, and his army, wasn't invincible. All he had to do was show his troops and their colors and any enemy would simply break and run away... The lessons learned from such arrogance are often too painful to behold. But Lee would not listen to the advice of caution. Arrogant men never do.
Neither Grant nor Lee had control over the First Day, it was a conflict of at most divisional and Corps commanders. As far as Ewell's (Second) Corps? This was the first major battle Ewell ever fought as a Corps commander. During that day, he effectively destroyed XI Corps and helped roll them and I Corps up onto the high ground south of Gettysburg. It was his intent to take Culp's Hill with Johnson's Division, but unfortunately for him Johnson only arrived just after dark. One hour earlier, and Gettysburg becomes a moderate Southern victory and the AotP falls back to the Pipe Creek Line (Ironically a much stronger position). Ewell holds a special place in the history of Gettysburg. He is the only Southern subordinate commander to say anything like this: "It took a lot of mistakes to cause Gettysburg, and I made most of them."
Culp's Hill was the strongest defended portion of the whole battlefield, literally the barb of the fishhook. When Lee went there for a staff meeting, Ewell, two of his divisional commanders (Early and Rodes, Johnson was scouting the hill at that moment) and Third Corps Commander A.P. Hill all were insistent they couldn't take the two hills (Cemetery Hill was a salient into Third Corps) unless the enemy drew forces away to their left flank.
Lee simply did not have enough command/control over his forces. His staff was far too small for their responsibilities. Lee left it to Ewell's judgement. Jackson would have done it. Ewell was no Jackson. Worse, he seemed to follow his subordinate, Early, rather than the other way around. In fairness, it has to be said, since when did the Yankees act with extreme alacrity, and the Rebels take their time? No wonder General Trimble was so upset. The idea that it would be the YANKEES who would "head 'em off at the pass"
must have been very perplexing for Lee.
Hey General Lee, I've got your answer for you:
The enemy, for the very first time, is fighting for THEIR homes