Gran Columbia holds together

What would happen if Gran Columbia, the empire that Simon Bolivar created, had managed to remain one country? Would the union be able to expand across South America, integrating huge territories like the USA was able to expand across North America? How plausible it this?
 
Gran Colombia included Colombia, Panama, Venezuela, Ecuador, and claimed portions of what are now in Peru, Brazil, and Guyana along with some claims to islands claimed by other countries at various time periods. A very diverse country that came together because of Simon Bolivar. Peru, and Bolivia also owe their independence to him. Possible if you do a POD that changes some aspects of Bolivar's personality, perhaps make him more like G. Washington, you might get those two countries to join in a confederation or "personal union".

Problem I see with butterflies of a unified Gran Colombia is- how does this affect their boundary disputes with UK; how does this influence European interference on debt (in OTL Germany et al occupied ports of Venezuela to collect the tariffs on imports and pay themselves back); most importantly- can it stand up to Roosevelt and how does this affect the Panama Canal?
 
It might be that they would be less interested in the border disputes as the pre-requisite for Gran Columbia perputua would be an elite who could work together and avoid the regionalism card. That would likely boost internal trade and thus growth meaning external distractions and the pursuit of new sources of loot become less important.

On the idea of the Pacific-Atlantic Canal having a reasonably strong neutral power to protect and administer it might lessen great power rivalries over the issue meaning it might get built more quickly. How much of the revenues accrued to GC would likely depend on how much of the capital (plus maybe know-how) for the project had to be raised abroad. Still you would expect GC to secure a reasonably good cut.
 
Gran Colombia might have sustained itself had it been able to exist as more than just the dream of Bolivar. But that is itself unlikely and it would only ever be the territories it specifically controlled.
 
Gran Colombia included Colombia, Panama, Venezuela, Ecuador, and claimed portions of what are now in Peru, Brazil, and Guyana along with some claims to islands claimed by other countries at various time periods. A very diverse country that came together because of Simon Bolivar. Peru, and Bolivia also owe their independence to him. Possible if you do a POD that changes some aspects of Bolivar's personality, perhaps make him more like G. Washington, you might get those two countries to join in a confederation or "personal union".

Problem I see with butterflies of a unified Gran Colombia is- how does this affect their boundary disputes with UK; how does this influence European interference on debt (in OTL Germany et al occupied ports of Venezuela to collect the tariffs on imports and pay themselves back); most importantly- can it stand up to Roosevelt and how does this affect the Panama Canal?

I can't help but say that defining the importance of a united viceroyalty of new Grenada solely by its impact on historical events in Europe is more than a little insultingly Eurocentric.
 
It might be that they would be less interested in the border disputes as the pre-requisite for Gran Columbia perputua would be an elite who could work together and avoid the regionalism card. That would likely boost internal trade and thus growth meaning external distractions and the pursuit of new sources of loot become less important.

On the idea of the Pacific-Atlantic Canal having a reasonably strong neutral power to protect and administer it might lessen great power rivalries over the issue meaning it might get built more quickly. How much of the revenues accrued to GC would likely depend on how much of the capital (plus maybe know-how) for the project had to be raised abroad. Still you would expect GC to secure a reasonably good cut.

Actually I'd argue the opposite. The elite were always the only people supporting Gran Colombia as a construct. You need a popular involvement and support for Gran Colombia that goes beyond the extreme top of society who can easily start agitating for independence when they don't get their way.
 
Actually I'd argue the opposite. The elite were always the only people supporting Gran Colombia as a construct. You need a popular involvement and support for Gran Colombia that goes beyond the extreme top of society who can easily start agitating for independence when they don't get their way.

Well, one of the main reasons Gran Colombia broke up was because the elites were fighting between themselves. Should Gran Colombia be centered in Bogota or Caracas? Should they adopt federalism or centralism? Those were issues that provoked great separation between the young nation. Most of the people didn't have any national identity, that would develop latter, instead they had strong regional identities that made even more hard any attempt of union. Though mestizos and natives obviously supported the independence, the leaders of it were criollos, the elites. After the independence, there were few social changes and the low classes were expected to only do their job and don't question the leaders. If the criollos reach and agreement and with some luck, Gran Colombia can stand togheter until a national identity is developed thus securing its existence.

By the way, El Speculador, I just happen to be making a timeline about a Gran Colombia that stands togheter. You migh find it interesting.
 

Deleted member 67076

This depends on what type of government is in charge and what policies they would do.

You could get the first industrializing country in South America and a great power in the making by 1870... or a schizophrenic, unstable mess of a government like OTL Colombia.

Expansion across South America? Aside from Guyana I can't think of any reason why the Colombians would want to.

They could get the OTL Dominican Republic, as the government there in 1822 actually petitioned for annexation with Colombia as a department.
 
Not particularly plausible. If Gran Columbia holds together, odds are pretty high it'll end up being comparable to the 19th century what the Democratic Republic of the Congo was/is to the late 20th (maybe slightly better, but regardless). It'll largely be an unstable mess somehow holding itself together. If it incorporates any more territory, than that's just that many more issues to deal with. It will most certainly have to contend with Peru over the border issues that Ecuador inherited OTL, as well as whatever happens with the Panama Canal region.

As noted above, the Dominican Republic is the only territory I see Gran Columbia expanding to include, and they'll have to go defeat both Haiti and significant elements within the Dominican Republic itself. And from my cursory knowledge of Dominican politics in the 19th century, it probably won't stay within Gran Columbia without a fight either.

The potential results of that could mean that Gran Columbia is forced to become a naval power, so if anything like Latin American dreadnought race happens and "Spanish Haiti" still hasn't split away, I'd expect Gran Columbia to take part in it. Could have interesting regional ramifications.
 
Well, one of the main reasons Gran Colombia broke up was because the elites were fighting between themselves. Should Gran Colombia be centered in Bogota or Caracas? Should they adopt federalism or centralism? Those were issues that provoked great separation between the young nation. Most of the people didn't have any national identity, that would develop latter, instead they had strong regional identities that made even more hard any attempt of union. Though mestizos and natives obviously supported the independence, the leaders of it were criollos, the elites. After the independence, there were few social changes and the low classes were expected to only do their job and don't question the leaders. If the criollos reach and agreement and with some luck, Gran Colombia can stand togheter until a national identity is developed thus securing its existence.

By the way, El Speculador, I just happen to be making a timeline about a Gran Colombia that stands togheter. You migh find it interesting.

That lack of change though is precisely what I'd blame for Gran Colombias collapse. No one cared about it besides elites. Most of whom, also didn't far about it beyond what they could get out of it. Gran Colombia needed to become a nation through the commitment of Mestizos alongside Criollos. Otherwise it's not a worthwhile nation. Just a project ultimately doomed to failure.
 
Not particularly plausible. If Gran Columbia holds together, odds are pretty high it'll end up being comparable to the 19th century what the Democratic Republic of the Congo was/is to the late 20th (maybe slightly better, but regardless). It'll largely be an unstable mess somehow holding itself together. If it incorporates any more territory, than that's just that many more issues to deal with. It will most certainly have to contend with Peru over the border issues that Ecuador inherited OTL, as well as whatever happens with the Panama Canal region.

As noted above, the Dominican Republic is the only territory I see Gran Columbia expanding to include, and they'll have to go defeat both Haiti and significant elements within the Dominican Republic itself. And from my cursory knowledge of Dominican politics in the 19th century, it probably won't stay within Gran Columbia without a fight either.

The potential results of that could mean that Gran Columbia is forced to become a naval power, so if anything like Latin American dreadnought race happens and "Spanish Haiti" still hasn't split away, I'd expect Gran Columbia to take part in it. Could have interesting regional ramifications.

What you're describing in the first pragraph is essentially what happened in every Latin Americans country for the first fifty years of their history. That was the height of Caudillo republics dominated by cliques of rural landlords.
 
What you're describing in the first pragraph is essentially what happened in every Latin Americans country for the first fifty years of their history. That was the height of Caudillo republics dominated by cliques of rural landlords.

That's definitely true, but Colombia was one of the worst cases of those caudillo republics, along with Argentina and Mexico and of course Central America. Only (Gran) Colombia and Central America permanently fragmented over those issues too, although Argentina might count too.
 

Deleted member 67076

Not particularly plausible. If Gran Columbia holds together, odds are pretty high it'll end up being comparable to the 19th century what the Democratic Republic of the Congo was/is to the late 20th (maybe slightly better, but regardless). It'll largely be an unstable mess somehow holding itself together. If it incorporates any more territory, than that's just that many more issues to deal with. It will most certainly have to contend with Peru over the border issues that Ecuador inherited OTL, as well as whatever happens with the Panama Canal region.

As noted above, the Dominican Republic is the only territory I see Gran Columbia expanding to include, and they'll have to go defeat both Haiti and significant elements within the Dominican Republic itself. And from my cursory knowledge of Dominican politics in the 19th century, it probably won't stay within Gran Columbia without a fight either.

The potential results of that could mean that Gran Columbia is forced to become a naval power, so if anything like Latin American dreadnought race happens and "Spanish Haiti" still hasn't split away, I'd expect Gran Columbia to take part in it. Could have interesting regional ramifications.
Nah Dominican society at the time was very eager for confederation with Colombia due to being swept up in the nationalist wave against Spain. Colombia was seen as a essentially, "the future" and that "Santo Domingo should catch the wave". The only people really apathetic about it were the recently freed slaves (which were less than 10% of the population).

I do fear for seperatist tension if the War with Spain continues to drag on and Dominican resources are continually spent on a faraway and ceaseless war. If not, and Colombian money is in turn spent in Santo Domingo then the people would be ecstatic and loyal. Spain ignored them for centuries after all.

As for Haiti, well technically it was informally allied with Colombia and Colombia was the only country that formally recognized Haiti's existence. So, I don't know why they would attempt to jeapordize that relationship. Boyer was too smart for that.
 
I did find it interesting. I am assuming you referred to the TL in your signature. If not, I would like to see your other TL.:D

Thanks! Yeah, it's the one in my signature, and it's a wank but I try to keep it realistic. My only problem is that I'm very slow with my updates... they shall come! Anyway, if you have any suggestion or constructive critic, please post it in the TL's threat.

That lack of change though is precisely what I'd blame for Gran Colombias collapse. No one cared about it besides elites. Most of whom, also didn't far about it beyond what they could get out of it. Gran Colombia needed to become a nation through the commitment of Mestizos alongside Criollos. Otherwise it's not a worthwhile nation. Just a project ultimately doomed to failure.

You're right, but it the elites manage to work togheter, get support from the mestizos and natives (indigenas here), it might work. It would be neccesary to make them believe union is neccesary and more convenient than separation, and perhaps having a leader able to maintain the country united during its first years. If it does fine, the elites will support the project. Simon Bolivar was a great military commander, but a terrible civilian leader just like most of the leaders of the independence wars in Latin America. They didn't know how to rule democratically and maintain union in their countries, leading to disunited, dictatorial societies where the army was far too important, sadly shapping Latin American history for the next centuries (hello, caudillo of the week!). We can also blame the ineffecient Spanish colonial system for that.

That's definitely true, but Colombia was one of the worst cases of those caudillo republics, along with Argentina and Mexico and of course Central America. Only (Gran) Colombia and Central America permanently fragmented over those issues too, although Argentina might count too.

I guess you know about the United States of Central America then? Anyway, after some problems after the independence war were fixed in Argentina, it did fine during a good time, having a strong economy and commodities similar to those in France or Britain. Then World War I and the Great Depression hit and Argentinians fixed those problems the only way we Latin Americans know how... having a coup!

Nah Dominican society at the time was very eager for confederation with Colombia due to being swept up in the nationalist wave against Spain. Colombia was seen as a essentially, "the future" and that "Santo Domingo should catch the wave". The only people really apathetic about it were the recently freed slaves (which were less than 10% of the population).

I do fear for seperatist tension if the War with Spain continues to drag on and Dominican resources are continually spent on a faraway and ceaseless war. If not, and Colombian money is in turn spent in Santo Domingo then the people would be ecstatic and loyal. Spain ignored them for centuries after all.

As for Haiti, well technically it was informally allied with Colombia and Colombia was the only country that formally recognized Haiti's existence. So, I don't know why they would attempt to jeapordize that relationship. Boyer was too smart for that.

During the independence wars there was a wave of... well, it was not quite nationalism but rather something of shared fervor against Spain and enthusiasm for unions and federations. There were several, like the USCA, Gran Colombia, Las Provincias Unidas de Rio de la Plata, and latter Peru-Bolivia, but them all failed. If Santo Domingo joins Gran Colombia and the country does fine, the people there, catholic mestizos would eventually become as Colombian as the people in the mainland. If Gran Colombia breaks appart, it would probably be only one more succesor state with a pretty tricolor flag (of course, if Gran Colombia holds it for a significant time there can be interesting butterflies).

I think the best moment for Dominican to join is once the wars are almost over, however that brings a problem in that even when the last royalist strongholds had fallen, Spain continued attacking its lost colonies, screwing Mexico and provoking a war in South America for the Chincha Islands. If Dominican joins Gran Colombia, it would probably be the most attacked place, not only by Spain but by Haiti too. Spain recognizing Gran Colombia's independence is needed to keep Dominican intact. Dominican would be quite happy to have a competent government for a change, since there's no national identity there and they are mestizo and catholic too, they would come to see themselves as Colombians in no time.

Haiti... Haiti is an oddball that you can't really predict. Boyer would not attack its only ally in the world, but Haiti was quite divided and his successor may try to do it. If Colombia counter attacks (La República Contraataca) and annexes them or makes them a puppet, nobody would be able to say Colombia's the aggresor because they were technically only defending their land.
 

Deleted member 67076

I think the best moment for Dominican to join is once the wars are almost over, however that brings a problem in that even when the last royalist strongholds had fallen, Spain continued attacking its lost colonies, screwing Mexico and provoking a war in South America for the Chincha Islands. If Dominican joins Gran Colombia, it would probably be the most attacked place, not only by Spain but by Haiti too.

I don't think it would be that bad. Hispaniola is a sort of a bad target to hold on to that Spain has bigger targets to go after, and their near total disinterest in the colony. And depending on the time period/outcome of events the Dual States of Haiti staying divided for a bit longer or a Haiti that becomes dominated by the Southern Republic (like historically) means an orientation to Colombia since this means the trade blockade issued by France and America has a giant loophole, alongside pre existing ties of friendship.

Spain recognizing Gran Colombia's independence is needed to keep Dominican intact. Dominican would be quite happy to have a competent government for a change, since there's no national identity there and they are mestizo and catholic too, they would come to see themselves as Colombians in no time.
I agree, Spain recognizing Gran Colombia helps out everyone in general. And just having a Colombian naval base and a bit more investment in the region will cause enough benefits to satisfy everyone.

Haiti... Haiti is an oddball that you can't really predict. Boyer would not attack its only ally in the world, but Haiti was quite divided and his successor may try to do it. If Colombia counter attacks (La República Contraataca) and annexes them or makes them a puppet, nobody would be able to say Colombia's the aggresor because they were technically only defending their land.
I see your point but I think the commercial and diplomatic benefits would outweigh the cost of an expensive and isolating war just for the rest of the island.

Annexing Haiti is out of the question. That place would be absolute hell to hold and everyone would know this. If the French can't hold it, no one can.
 
I don't think it would be that bad. Hispaniola is a sort of a bad target to hold on to that Spain has bigger targets to go after, and their near total disinterest in the colony. And depending on the time period/outcome of events the Dual States of Haiti staying divided for a bit longer or a Haiti that becomes dominated by the Southern Republic (like historically) means an orientation to Colombia since this means the trade blockade issued by France and America has a giant loophole, alongside pre existing ties of friendship.


I agree, Spain recognizing Gran Colombia helps out everyone in general. And just having a Colombian naval base and a bit more investment in the region will cause enough benefits to satisfy everyone.


I see your point but I think the commercial and diplomatic benefits would outweigh the cost of an expensive and isolating war just for the rest of the island.

Annexing Haiti is out of the question. That place would be absolute hell to hold and everyone would know this. If the French can't hold it, no one can.

Yes, but Spain may still target the island because its so near Cuba. Bolivar had plans to invade Puerto Rico and Cuba, unlikely as they may be, he really wanted to carry them out but was stopped by Gran Colombia's dissolution. Mexico will probably still be the main target, so Hispaniola would be safe. Haiti... well, a Southern Victory beneficies everyone as that Haiti won't attack Colombia, being a close ally instead. France and America may be a little upset because Colombia is helping Haiti break their blockades, but it won't be so bad.

Yes, but Spain was quite stunborn and took several years before giving recognizement to its former colonies. Heck, it took another war with them for Spain to finally give up. Perhaps a decisive Colombian victory at sea makes Spain think it's a lost cause. The beneficies of having Dominican are great, because the Caribbean was a very profitable region at the time. Opening it to British investment, or even opening the port to the RN may help to industrialize the country, build good ties with the UK and creating a good navy.

Yes, any sane leader would be aware that attacking Haiti's only ally would be a terrible, terrible idea. But, weirder things have happened, and a dictator or president crazy enough to think it would work its possible. The best path for Haiti in a scenary like this is becoming a very close ally of Colombia and helping it whenever Haiti can. Finally, yeah, you're right, annexing Haiti is out of the question and just having it as a puppet or very close ally is the better path.
 
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