Graceful French Exit from Colonialism?
- Thread starter Malta
- Start date
Algeria in 1925 only had a little over 6 million people while Metropolitan France had a population of 40.4 million.
Now, if we add the two together and subtract the Pied-Noirs, then Muslims would have only made-up at most 11.6% of the population.
13%. I did not mean 25% of the _total_, I meant of France...anyhoo, you're just being nitpicky. The important point to take away was that there were already a lot of Muslims in Algeria in 1925 and the numbers were growing _fast_.
Bruce
BlondieBC
Banned
If we don't assume a well behaved France, their are methods that reduce the population grown. Simple things like making Muslims second class citizens can reduce the amount of food and reduce the birth rate, and when combined with higher infant morality and/or lack of modern health care, it can have a noticeable effect on population gain rate. And making them second class citizens if they don't become "French" will result in both people switching to Christianity and radicalization of the remainder. Both reduce the number of Muslims. One can look up to Italy did in Libya with a basically flat population from 1915 to 1950. And then we can get into ethnic cleansing issues. Now to be fair, it is a lot easier to see an Italy that has less demographic losses due to WW1 POD keeping Libya than France on Algeria.
BlondieBC
Banned
But there are degrees of second class citizens, think more in terms of Libya under the Italians or West/Equitorial Africa under the French. While it could turn out many way if WW1 is skipped, it is likely that increase European migration to Algeria will mean expropriation of even more Muslim assets and less tolerant laws compared to OTL. This likely sets off more radical Muslim positions, which can easily lead to a feedback loop of rebellion and harsh repression measures such seen by the Italians in Libya. Without the losses in WW1 and the war fatigue, France likely takes as harsh a measure as required to suppress the Muslims and maintain control.
In WW1 among the powers fighting, only Japan won. But it started the process of making the Europeans too weak to control their colonies in the long term, so in many ways, the independence movements of the various colonies also won, even though it would be another 1-2 full generations before the independence was achieved.
Wolfpaw
Banned
You, sir, have already made my day and it is not even 10:30 a.m.
But yeah, given the French mindset of "The Great White Frenchman's Civilization is Best Civilization" (which would only be reinforced by no World War I, and which was OTL escalated by a socialist government post-WWII) I do not see them giving up the imperial ghost very easily. The best way to do it, I think, would be for France to have an "India Moment," like Britain did.
If France were to lose Algeria first, they may be more willing to let the other colonies go. As it went IOTL, every lost colony was another step towards an independent Algeria, which drove the French Right (and Left) increasingly bonkers. So if Algeria goes first, maybe we see the same, "Well, if the jewel is gone, what is there left to keep?" that overtook Britain after '48.
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Wolfpaw
Banned
I presume it'd stay under French control; the Germans were always more interested in Morocco or Equatorial Africa. I could see "4th Shore"-esque shenanigans happening. The various French milices will probably use it as a horrible proving ground where native communities are destroyed with The Latest Weapons to make room for pieds noir settlement.
I forsee many an empire-wank from you in the future. I see you already are hard at work at a "Germany Wins WWI" scenario...
Bruce
BlondieBC
Banned
Last colony France gives up. So it stays French 99% of ATL's. Italy was the only other real power that would really want it, and it is hard to get Italy to join the CP. And even if Italy is getting spoils from the war, they will want Tunisia more. You can write a TL where France loses Algeria in WW1, but it is real hard to write.
Yes, this is what the Germans would be interested in, along with regaining lost colonies. Tsingtao was very important to the Kaiser. And we also have to look at the Allied positions. The UK is undefeated at sea and so is Japan. I think Japan will block Tsingtao being given back, and the UK block Morocco. MittelAfrika is the likely solution since Belgium for the Congo makes sense. And Equitorial Africa will be a lot less valuable to France than Algeria, and France likely will make some colonial concessions in the peace deal.
BlondieBC
Banned
I forsee many an empire-wank from you in the future. I see you already are hard at work at a "Germany Wins WWI" scenario...
Bruce
I am not sure how many more TL I will write, much less Empire wank ones. Overall, WW1 ATL just reshuffle who owns what, unless you have Ethiopia fall or have some odd rebellion. In mine, I did wank Kamerun for various odd reasons, but I also gave South Africa independence, so there are fewer colonies than OTL.
As to empire wanks, they are actually very easy but there is only one good POD - No WW1/Short WW1. It was WW (to me WW1 and WW2 are the same war) that ended colonialism. In 1900 or Victoria last Jubilee if you look at the information available to them, you would assume the empire system which was 400 years old would last many more centuries. And they were right, if you can avert a general war. While the schemes now seem crazy to settle non-Africans in the Kenya/Uganda Highlands or that South Africa could be white run country indefinitely or Zionism, it made sense if you keep in mind their reality. Europe was not just growing in population each year, it was growning even after exporting a couple million whites each year. Each of these countries wanted to create friendly colonies that spoke their language such as the UK had with Canada. France wanted Algeria. Italy wanted Libya. German was doing SWA and was negotiating for an expansion into Angola. Russia had an empire, it just happened to be in central asia and the Far East. Japan had the same in Korea. The USA had a low population density, so it is a bit of an exception. So is A-H for internal reasons. The Hungarian portion was trying to export non Hungarians and those that resisted Magyarization; Austria had too many internal issues to be focused.
And when I looked at these plans as backgrounds for my TL, I concluded they would have worked. France has the hardest issue with Algeria mainly due to low birth rates going back to the Napoleonic wars. Italy is easy to project into majority Italian population in Libya. Germany is the same in SWA and Angola. Japan would have made Korea and Taiwan "Japanese". It is just simple math. Take 2 million extra whites leaving Europe from 1915 to 1965 for 100 million. Gross up for population growth, and we have 200-300 million extra whites somewhere outside of Europe. A lot of these colonies had under 10 million natives, sometimes a low as 1 million. One can't predict exactly which areas are white, but there are more white settler colonies and more South African type areas.
And this is only half of the reason. These whites will suppress the natives birth rate. There will be obvious reason like the massacres and ethnic cleansing that will happen. And there will be rebellions and harsh suppression of rebellions. But it will also be through suppression of birth rates due to resource competition. Many densely populated areas in Africa now (tea area of Cameroon, Uganda Highlands, Rwanda) were lightly populated often with a herding lifestyle. The whites will simply take the better land and thereby reduce the food available to support the native population. The additional Europeans in Europe will also eat a larger % of the world food supply. Low non-European population by 200 to 600 million.
For better or worse depending on ones perspective, the world without WW1 will be much whiter and will likely still have major colonial empires. North Africa excluding Egypt will be majority Christian. There will be several more area like South Africa IOTL that will be greater than 1/6 European descent. South Africa could be majority white. The Suez will be controlled by Europeans. The strategic ports of the British Empire are still British (Hong Kong, Singapore, and some others).
France fighton on from its colonies in 1940 could be the trick that prevents a disgraceful decolonisation of most parts of the French Empire.
If France fights on the dynamics will be hugely different in Indochina for a start and it will be clear to the French government that allowing independence of Viet-Nam in stages would be the best way to defend the colony against the Japanese.
In Algeria things would be helped by the granting of French citizenship no questions asked to any Muslim that volunteer to fight for France. In any case no Vichy means no repeal of the Cremieux Decree which basically said to the Muslims "what France gave she can retake" pushing moderates like Ferhat Abbas into the arms of the nationalists ...
If France fights on the dynamics will be hugely different in Indochina for a start and it will be clear to the French government that allowing independence of Viet-Nam in stages would be the best way to defend the colony against the Japanese.
In Algeria things would be helped by the granting of French citizenship no questions asked to any Muslim that volunteer to fight for France. In any case no Vichy means no repeal of the Cremieux Decree which basically said to the Muslims "what France gave she can retake" pushing moderates like Ferhat Abbas into the arms of the nationalists ...
Could Wolfpaw explain the machine gun part?
The machine gun made later imperialism possible. I distinctly remember a comment about, "We have got the Maxim Gun and they have not."
The machine gun made later imperialism possible. I distinctly remember a comment about, "We have got the Maxim Gun and they have not."
I believe he was talking about AK-47's. Easy to supply to rebels.
Flocculencio
Donor
Not precisely- by this time Indians were already starting to agitate for independence. It may take a little longer (by which I mean late 50s instead of early 40s) but India will still go and once India goes every other colonised people in the world has an example.
Wolfpaw
Banned
Indeed. The original quote was about AK-47s, but I didn't wanna be a pedant and correct a guy nice enough to (more or less accurately) quote me. But yeah, AK-47s are probably the most revolutionary firearm in history; they are cheap, easy to make, tremendously effective, and can take a tougher beating than most guns, making them excellent guerrilla weapons.
So to save the colony of Vietnam, the French grant it independence? What? The French (like all colonizers) knew exactly what would (and did) happen when a colony was granted independence by the Metropole; all of the other colonies will demand the same. This will just accelerate decolonization, if anything.
And the millions that don't volunteer anyways? What about them? All I see is that you've made some extra Harki collaborators to flee the place when the chips are down.
Every moderate was a nationalist at heart unless they had completely sold-out to France and its message of the White Man's Burden, to say nothing of its pseudo-science which classified North Africans as inherently criminal (something which was officially taught by the French Psychiatric College in Algiers until at least 1954).
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