Grab The Bull By The Horns

1993. The year that the Maastricht Treaty was signed by British Prime Minister, John Major, much to the disapproval, surprisingly, from MPs serving in both main parties. Conservative backbenchers went against their own leader, stating his decisions were greatly out of touch, and that Britain would be better-suited to a more modern Prime Minister. In an attempt to rally the troops, Major called for a parliamentary vote of confidence, stating that his MPs would have to 'put up' or 'shut up'.

As we know, IOTL Major won this vote by a narrow margin, but what would have occurred had he failed to do so? Would we have seen a new Conservative leader? Would John Smith, the new leader of the Labour Party, been able to rise up in the face of his personal adversities in order to take his party out of the dark ages? And ultimately, with another global recession on the horizon, who would be able to Grab The Bull By The Horns and stake their claim as the man to lead Britain securely into the 21st century?

All of these questions, derived from one alternate answer: "No".
 
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BBC One

22nd July 1993

10:00am


Announcer: We bring you a BBC News special report, live from outside the Houses of Westminster, with Peter Sissons.

Sissons: This vote has been discussed for weeks, it was passed through on Wednesday, but finally, the time has come for Parliament to vote on whether, in light of the recent signing of the Maastricht Treaty, it still wants John Major to be its Prime Minister. The debate inside has been going on for approximately half an hour, Major appeared defiant, even in the midst of a possible defeat, reiterating his point throughout the last few months that it was time for Tory Eurosceptics to either "put up or shut up", as well as saying that it was time for Parliament to again decide whether this stalemate over Europe wages on, or is stopped, dead in its tracks. Only time will tell, as these next few minutes will be pivotal in deciding the political future of both the Conservative Party, and John Major. We now go to Peter Snow from the upper chamber of the House of Commons.

Snow: Thank you, Peter. Like you said just a minute ago, it is time for Parliament to vote on whether it wants John Major as Prime Minister, or whether another General Election should be called, not even a year after the Conservative Party won one of its largest ever majorities at the expense of the current MP for Islwyn, and former Labour leader, Neil Kinnock. These last few months have been hectic, with the Maastricht Rebels causing significant unrest within the Conservative party. MPs such as Iain Duncan Smith and Bill Cash have gained notoriety due to their Eurosceptic stance on the Treaty, and they managed to create enough disruption for John Major to directly challenge them. Of course, a vote of no confidence is not that simple, as if the Maastricht Rebels are successful, John Major will be forced to resign as Prime Minster, and as leader of the Conservative Party. All of this means that a lot is at stake as we begin this vote. We will return to the House of Commons as soon as the vote has been counted and verified.

(We witness the Speaker, Betty Boothroyd, ask the MPs the required question, which is: "That, in the opinion of this house, Her Majesty's Government should not deposit the Articles of Ratification of the Treaty of the European Union with the government of the Italian Republic until some time as it has given notification to the European Community that it intends to adopt the agreement attached to protocol on social policy." As seen in the method of division, MPs go to the left of the chamber of the House of Commons if they agree, or to the right if they disagree with the statement. After roughly five minutes of rigorous counting, the results are in.)

10:43am

Sissons: I am receiving news that the count from the confidence motion is through. We will now go back to Peter Snow.

Snow: The Speaker, Betty Boothroyd, is about to read the results of this confidence motion. From what I could see during the vote itself, it was too close to call simply from sight, initial reports from the House of Commons stated a small Conservative majority. How this vote is called could potentially forever alter the future of British politics.

(Boothroyd steps up)

Speaker: The vote has been counted and verified several times, and I can now inform you that in accordance with the European Committees Amendment Bill, the responses to the motion are as follows: Number of votes counted: 638 out of a possible 650 MPs. In favour of the motion, 318. Against the motion: 320. (Large cheers in the right of the chamber) The Government has been defeated on this motion, meaning that in the opinion of this House, it has a vote of no confidence.

Snow: There we have it, ladies and gentleman, the confirmation that Parliament has delivered a vote of no confidence to the motion regarding amendments to the social policy of the Maastricht Treaty, which will surely result in another General Election very soon, as well as the resignation of John Major as both Prime Minister and Leader of the Conservative Party.
 
The Daily Mail
23rd July 1993
Major Resigns
General Election & Tory Leadership Election expected to be called


Today, British politics was thrown into disarray as e Prime Minister, John Major, resigned after two and a half years in the post, stating that if "he no longer had his peers' support, he would have little hope with the British public".

Major's resignation followed Parliament's narrow vote of no confidence yesterday, in which 320 to 318 voted against the European Communities Amendsments Bill, a bill created by Major's signing of the Maastricht Treaty earlier this year.

In a personal statement, Major said: "It is with deep sadness that I resign from both my position as Prime Minister of the United Kingdom, and as Leader of the Conservative Party. Over the last two and a half years, I believe that I have done a good job as Prime Minister. The country is relatively financially secure, employment is still on the rise, and we are on the verge of an economic boom which will impact on Britain for many years to come. All of this allows me to take a step back, look at all the great things I have done as Prime Minister, and realise that it is time that I allow someone else to take my party and my country in a new direction."

At the moment, we are unaware when the subsequent Conservative Party leadership and British general elections will take place, although we have reason to believe that John Major's successor will be appointed within the next four weeks, to allow a lengthy election campaign. Four candidates have already put their names into the hat: Ken Clarke, the pro-Europe former Chancellor of the Exchequer, his recent successor, Michael Howard, John Redwood, the Eurosceptic Secretary of State for Wales, and the rank outsider, notable Maastricht Rebel, Rupert Allason, whose failure to take part in the vote of no confidence indirectly led to John Major's resignation. The odds are as follows:

Ladbrokes Odds For Next Tory Leader


John Redwood 3/1
Kenneth Clarke 7/2
Michael Howard 11/1
Rupert Allason 32/1
 
Leadership Election Announcement

Daily Mail
25th July 1993
Tories to do battle on September 1st


Election Date Announced As Infighting Worsens

Today, in the midst of another Tory slanging match, a date was finally set for the party's all-important leadership election.

September 1st is now the official date on which the four men deemed to have the best chance of winning the General Election and keeping the Tories under control will do battle. And what a battle it is shaping up to be, given that outsider Rupert Allason's odds were slashed today following a passionate tear-down of his opponents in his constituency of Torbay.

Allason commented that: "The other three [leadership candidates] have no backbone, they expect the party to reform itself without any help. I, on the other hand, am not 'out of touch' like Kenneth Clarke, am not a 'diligent crowd-pleaser' like John Redwood, and am not 'utterly incapable' like Michael Howard. If you want change, you want Rupert."

Politicians have heavily criticised the speech, with fellow candidate Michael Howard christening it 'the fascist ramblings of a Eurosceptic madman'. Ken Clarke, on the other hand, was more placid about the comment, saying that he hopes "Mr Allason is as effective a politician as he is a speech-maker." With such criticisms, you would expect the outsider to be firmly out of contention for the role. However, he has instead rose to 2nd favourite in the race behind fellow Eurosceptic, John Redmond, with Michael Howard dropping to bottom following his ill-fated response.

With such intensity present in this campaign, it is certainly going to be a tense few weeks at Tory HQ as the politicians make their votes on who should be the next Conservative leader, and possibly the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom.
 
Daily Mail
29th July 1993
Redwood Unclear On Europe Position


Given his traditionally Eurosceptic view on the Maastricht Treaty, you would expect John Redwood to be in favour of a Eurexit. However, the Tory leadership candidate today appeared in two minds about his standpoint on the issue.

In a question and answer session with students from Oxford University, Redwood spoke of the need for "a strong leader in charge of a strong Britain", and said that "the next leader has to be able to unite the Conservatives". But when questioned about his view on Europe, the favourite in the leadership race was far less certain.

Redwood said: "The general consensus within the Conservative Party is that the Maastricht Treaty should never have been signed. However, when you consider that Parliament signed the treaty, it quickly becomes clear that some 'rebels' are acting out, not being aware of the consequences. So, yes, I am not a fan of the concept of the European Union, but I may be able to work with it, given the chance."

Many have criticised Redwood for his sudden change in opinion, with fellow candidate Rupert Allason saying that "It comes to something when a fine and respectable man can't even make up his mind about an issue that is having an adverse effect on this country, we really need to consider whether John is the right man to lead this country." Others, including Kenneth Clarke have spoken out in support of Redwood, with the former Chancellor stating that "This man clearly understands that following the Maastricht Rebels will get him nowhere with the public."

With such conflicting views within the Conservative Party, and between the leadership nominees, next week's televised debate is sure to answer a lot of questions on whom the public should put their faith in.
 
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