Grab-bag of 1930s Asia what-ifs:

raharris1973

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Here is a grab-bag of PoDs for Asia in the 1930s.

I’ll concede these are actually limited to China and Japan what-ifs, mostly in political affairs.

Responses to the PoDs are requested, and additional ones, especially on other Asian countries, are invited.

Here we go:

1) Zhang Xueliang (aka the Young Marshal) and/or Chiang Kai-shek attempt to fully resist Japanese from beginning of Mukden incident in 1931 (resulting in full-scale war, then and there, or breakage or delay of Kwangtung Army unauthorized aggression)

2) Soviets counter-intervene in Manchuria against Japanese (outcome is lose, win, partition or settle for status quo ante-bellum) in 1931.

3) Chiang Kai-shek begins to support continuous open resistance against Japan from 1932 (during this year Japanese intentions to create a permanent separatist regime became clear, and Ma Chan-Shan put up episodic, and very popular anti-Japanese resistance)

4) Japanese Navy grabs Hainan island before 1937 (in OTL they did not grab it until 1939 or 1940, depending on which of my sources is accurate)

5) No Tanggu truce, May 1933

6) Japan does not retreat from Shanghai in 1932 or 1933

7) No He-Umezu agreement and accompanying Chinese concessions in June 1935 [results in a) less humiliation for China, without additional cost or b) immediate fullscale war in 1935.]

8) AHC/PC: Fullscale Japanese invasion of China prior to Long March

9) AHC/PC: Mao never needs to retreat from southern China

10) AHC/PC: Zhang Guotao becomes main Chinese Communist leader instead of Mao from mid-1930s on.

11) Japanese military factional coup or 1932, 1936 or another year succeeds in establishing new regime

12) AHC/PC: Japanese invasion of Outer Mongolia before July 1937

13) Japanese civil government reins in military adventurism and assassination, without coopting expansionist agenda, between 1931 and 1937.

14) AHC/PC: Japan picks a fight in a territory to the south of China within the 1930s (examples: attack on French Indochina, Thailand/Siam, Dutch East Indies or Portuguese, British or American colonies). Bonus points if they pick the fight with one, but not all.

15) Chiang Kai-shek politically finished, exiled or killed in political tensions at any point prior to fullscale war with Japan.

16) Sino-Japanese military cooperation against western interests in Asia (not necessarily involving shots fired in anger)

17) AHC/PC - No US silver purchase act in 1930s. Effects on Chinese, Japanese and global economy

18) AHC/PC: Communist take-over of national power in China during 1930s
 
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katchen

Banned
Or what if there is a Communist Soviet in Southwest Yunnan instead of Yenan so that Mao not only establishes a liberated zone for China, but Communists from Vietnam (including Ho Chi Minh), Laos, Cambodia, Siam, Burma and even India flock to this zone, starting Communist insurgencies during the 1930s all throughout continental Southeast Asia that are ready to contend with the Crown in Siam and the British and French elsewhere, as well as with Chiang Kai Shek after the Japanese are gone?
 
Here is a grab-bag of PoDs for Asia in the 1930s.

I’ll concede these are actually limited to China and Japan what-ifs, mostly in political affairs.

Responses to the PoDs are requested, and additional ones, especially on other Asian countries, are invited.

Here we go:


2) Soviets counter-intervene in Manchuria against Japanese (outcome is lose, win, partition or settle for status quo ante-bellum) in 1931.

4) Japanese Navy grabs Hainan island before 1937 (in OTL they did not grab it until 1939 or 1940, depending on which of my sources is accurate)


6) Japan does not retreat from Shanghai in 1932 or 1933

8) AHC/PC: Fullscale Japanese invasion of China prior to Long March

9) AHC/PC: Mao never needs to retreat from southern China

10) AHC/PC: Zhang Guotao becomes main Chinese Communist leader instead of Mao from mid-1930s on.

11) Japanese military factional coup or 1932, 1936 or another year succeeds in establishing new regime

12) AHC/PC: Japanese invasion of Outer Mongolia before July 1937

13) Japanese civil government reins in military adventurism and assassination, without coopting expansionist agenda, between 1931 and 1937.

14) AHC/PC: Japan picks a fight in a territory to the south of China within the 1930s (examples: attack on French Indochina, Thailand/Siam, Dutch East Indies or Portuguese, British or American colonies). Bonus points if they pick the fight with one, but not all.

15) Chiang Kai-shek politically finished, exiled or killed in political tensions at any point prior to fullscale war with Japan.

16) Sino-Japanese military cooperation against western interests in Asia (not necessarily involving shots fired in anger)

17) AHC/PC - No US silver purchase act in 1930s. Effects on Chinese, Japanese and global economy

18) AHC/PC: Communist take-over of national power in China during 1930s


Soviets intervene in Manchuria--Japan loses. Communists gain control of Manchuria and keep territories held before Long March.

Japanese Navy gains more leverage than Army because of latter's disastrous involvement in China and Manchuria. Alliance w/Germany and Italy becomes less likely.

Actions against western-held territories may depend on German success in Europe.
 

raharris1973

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the Yunnan option, is really interesting and creative

Or what if there is a Communist Soviet in Southwest Yunnan instead of Yenan so that Mao not only establishes a liberated zone for China, but Communists from Vietnam (including Ho Chi Minh), Laos, Cambodia, Siam, Burma and even India flock to this zone, starting Communist insurgencies during the 1930s all throughout continental Southeast Asia that are ready to contend with the Crown in Siam and the British and French elsewhere, as well as with Chiang Kai Shek after the Japanese are gone?

This is not a high-probability scenario, but something along these lines falls in the realm of possibility.

Long Marchers went through Yunnan, but to my knowledge never planned to stay there. Mao Zedong wanted to get physically closer to the USSR and Mongolia, and Zhang Guotao, while wanting to set up shop in the interior of Sichuan, had moving to Xinjiang as his back-up plan.

Also, an attempt to form the Soviet in the southwest leaves it more vulnerable to total annihilation. It creates an anti-communist community of interest between Britain, France, Siam and Chiang Kai-shek. If too successful in sparking insurgency, it may make the the British and French see Japan as a lesser evil.

It comes down to the question of whether there is an ATL version of the Xian incident. Local warlord troops of Yung lun in Yenan, or the Kwangsi faction (the latter being especially tough, and politically progressive actually) may still kidnap Chiang and force him into a United Front against Japan, but would be somewhat less likely than the northern warlords of OTL, because the Japanese are getting further from Japanese occupied northeast China rather than closer to it.

Assuming Chiang is forced into a United Front, the communists have further to go to reach Japanese occupied territory. Communist activity in Southeast Asia would stimulate local royal and colonial military buildups, but would also add to Japan's eventual excuse for invasion, and leaves communists in the catbird seat as anti-Japanese resisters.
Soviets intervene in Manchuria--Japan loses. Communists gain control of Manchuria and keep territories held before Long March.

Japanese Navy gains more leverage than Army because of latter's disastrous involvement in China and Manchuria. Alliance w/Germany and Italy becomes less likely.

Actions against western-held territories may depend on German success in Europe.


Interesting, so is this positing an early intervention or a late intervention.

I think Russia had crushing metallic superiority in 1939 (and had probably been even a little better, pre-purge in 1936) but I don't think they were all that built up in 1931 or 1932. On the other hand, overall Japanese forces in the field were far smaller in 1931-1932 than by the mid-1930s. It's all a tough call.

Had you ever scene this scenario, which posits a Soviet attack on the Japanese empire in the late 30s, followed by eventual (much, much later) Japanese intervention in Indonesia, (the "Merdeka War").

http://www.angelfire.com/gundam/japanese_empire/altjap/sjw.htm

http://www.angelfire.com/gundam/japanese_empire/altjap/merdeka.htm
 
I've got a question that I'd like to ask, if it's all right:

- How will Japan fare itself in World War Two if say, either the February 26 Incident or the May 15 incident had succeeded?
 
Responses to the PoDs are requested, and additional ones, especially on other Asian countries, are invited.

1) Zhang Zuolin and/or Chiang Kai-shek attempt to fully resist Japanese from beginning of Mukden incident in 1931 (resulting in full-scale war, then and there, or breakage or delay of Kwangtung Army unauthorized aggression)

Chang Tsolin (depending on the spelling in Roman Alphabet) historically did a fair bit to waste Japanese 'advisors' time and resist Japanese influence circa 1928, but he was never going to out right risk conflict with Imperial Japan as his position wasn't all that sercure and had the Chinese Republic seen him to be provoking or upsetting the status quo would have quickly found himself removed...or at least unsupported by the Chinese Republic, and thus the nationalists.

While he had strong support and position in Manchuria and North China, these were precisely the same areas that the Japanese were looking to gain influence, and without the backing of the Republic and the nationalists, then Imperial Japan culd very easily move against him publically and demard his replacement, or simply start a minor war where the Japanese would have dominated. Much like the Mukden Incident anyhow.

Remember that Chang was assinated and it was only his son, fearing a simmilar fate who ran to Kai-Shek and so in part ended what had been throughout the 1920s fairly good relations with the Republic of China.

Hence it's rather backwards, the Chinese aren't going to resist on their own, unless the Japanese do something first.

Probability level: Rather Low

2) Soviets counter-intervene in Manchuria against Japanese (outcome is lose, win, partition or settle for status quo ante-bellum) in 1931.
This isn't happening, preaty much full stop isn't happening. The Russian Civil War has only finished less 10 years ago, the Army has been stripped down circa 1927 IIRC to be reformed along new lines.

Basically there is no reason for Russia/Soviet Union to get involved in Manchuria. We have to remember that the Japanese had kick Russian arse back in the First Russo-Japanese War, and the entire area lacked infrastructure, or settlements or anything really worth fighting over. As far as the young communist regime is concerned this would be a pointless war fought far from Moscow, that would hardly likely be victorious and could threaten the stability of the regime, and its international prestige.

Read up on 5 Year plan for the Red Army.

Probability: Very Low

3) Chiang Kai-shek begins to support continuous open resistance against Japan from 1932 (during this year Japanese intentions to create a permanent separatist regime became clear, and Ma Chan-Shan put up episodic, and very popular anti-Japanese resistance)
It could happen, but Japans 'incidents' were hardly any worse than what the Chinese were doing amongst themselves in this era, and you would need to get the Kuomintang Government on board to back a counter-insurgency.

We have to remember that Kai-Shek only had recently come to power in the millitary aspect of the nationalist forces around 1927 IIRC and he had had forces fighting the musilm chinese in Gansu up until 1930. So had the Nationalist Army pressed for futher war, it may have been fairly distabilising.

We also have to remember that the Japanese invaison/occupation of Manchuria also had a fair amount of local support, not to mention that the Japanese army here was much better equipted then the nationalists and had a good number of boots on the ground.

Not only this many Chinese didn't even consider Manchurians to be true Chinese and there would have been less support from them as to why they were resisting the Japanese who may have been seen as doing the region a favour in setting up a Manchu State.

Probability: Fairly low

4) Japanese Navy grabs Hainan island before 1937 (in OTL they did not grab it until 1939 or 1940, depending on which of my sources is accurate)
Feb 1939 IIRC.

It would be difficult for such an act to happen pre-marco polo, unless it had happened during the First World War. However the Japanese would have little pretext to take the island, since it was not a Central Powers held locale (IIRC) and so a millitary operation here would have been viewed as open war and may have led to a much earlier conflict between the Kuomintang Government and Imperial Japan.


In such a case Imperial Japan would have been ostracised by much of the other great powers, even though in this era the very young KMT under Sun Tat Sen may have imploded quickly and the Japanese been able to force som large conssetions in China.

The butterflies here, would likely result in a much eariler deterioration of relations between the European Great powers and Imperial Japan which could have led to a seperate conflict fought at the end of the WW1 Period that sees the Imperial Japanese navy sunk, by the Etentent when the Japanese refuse to accept European demards.

Probability: High, but with total butterflies by time of 1937, more than improbable if between end of First World War and 1937

5) No Tanggu truce, May 1933
Japanese actions continue to move south into northern China, the nationalist army has significant issues with the Communists and Japanese, the Japanese likely back the communists to a small degree to small degree to aid in this and capture a 'buffer zone' as far as Ping-chou, before the nationalists cave, by which point the Communist Chinese and Japanese will have likely come to some 'agreement'.

This may butterfly away the war in China during WWII as Japan uses the communists as their 'favoured chinese faction' to restore a level of dominace enjoied during the 1920s.

Probability: I wouldn't speculate, but not high.

6) Japan does not retreat from Shanghai in 1932 or 1933
Can you elaborate on what you mean? Are you getting confused with the Chinese retreat?

7) No He-Umezu agreement and accompanying Chinese concessions in June 1935 [results in a) less humiliation for China, without additional cost or b) immediate fullscale war in 1935.]
No agreement, means no war in 1937 and no leaking of the document. It did a lot to increase tensions when the milliterists who were in power were doing everything to try and worsen relations to start a conflict.



I get bored commentating. Many little PODs that in themselves have many issues, don't know all off the top of my head, but for the vast part had their good reasons why these events happened as they did. Also some of these don't really have all that strong a repurcussion value, they are in essence, PODs that change the small scale, but not having a real big change in affairs, since the Japanese precipitated many of the more basic sentiments and motives. The Chinese on the otherhand were far more reactionary and couldn't realistically do things like oppose the Japanese. It would be a bit like what can Iran really do today, if the US really was pushing for heavy sanctions and war.



I will comment on the 2-2-6 Incident, since if it had been 'successful' (depending on what you mean by successful) it would have totally altered Imperial Japans path at this era and may have done much to cause a very delayed entry into WWII that would have likely been fighting with the Allies against the Chinese Nationalists as part of the Axis!!!!
 
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When I meant that the February 26 Incident being successful, as in what goals are they aiming for and how its completion will affect Japan?
 
When I meant that the February 26 Incident being successful, as in what goals are they aiming for and how its completion will affect Japan?

Well, how it ends determines what happens.

Even if not sucessful the outcome could have been very different to what it was. The butterflies of the attempted coup depend on the events that take place, not on the coup-ists or what their initial positions were.
 
So does this mean that Imperial Japan would be fighting alongside the Allies instead of the Axis? Or can they just pull a Franco and stay out of the war while sending a Blue Division into whichever side they want to be in.
 

raharris1973

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I meant Zhang Xueliang, the Young Marshal

... Not his father Zuolin, in the 1st pod. I goofed because I mixed up their names in pinyin. If the Young Marshal tries to resist with everything he's got in 1931, what happens? Does the higher commands in Dairen an tokyo disown the adventure, or back it up? What if in addition to the Young Marshal resisting Nanjing fully backs resistance too?
 
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