Gott enough to win?

William Gott was to take over the British Eighth Army before El Alamein but died in a plane crash before he could assume command. Had the man landed safely, what impact if any does this have on Libya and Egypt in 1942? Do the consequences have any significance for other theaters?

For more information: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/William_Gott
 
Usual take is Gott was nearing exhaustion, after over a year in the 8th Army. A second opinion is he did not have the extreme changes in mind for 8th Army, that Monty brought. ie: Return the artllery to centralized command/decentralized execution doctrine of the 1940 campaign; Stop the fragmentation of the divisions into scattered poorly coordinated brigades; Stop rushing tank battalions and companies about the battlefield, "Rat Racing" & use them with combined arms tactics as the 1st Army was training with in in the UK.
 

Deleted member 1487

William Gott was to take over the British Eighth Army before El Alamein but died in a plane crash before he could assume command. Had the man landed safely, what impact if any does this have on Libya and Egypt in 1942? Do the consequences have any significance for other theaters?

For more information: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/William_Gott
For starters he was assassinated by the Germans, who had access to British communications; just like Admiral Yamamoto he was shot down using SigInt intel. So you'd have to change something with that, like his plane getting lost so he wasn't in place to be intercepted and shot down.

Likely Gott would be removed for a major failure on the horizon, but not before really screwing the pooch. The real question of this POD is does he screw up this battle:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Alam_el_Halfa
That could be a fateful defeat and unravels the British position in Egypt, which might derail the Torch landings if the Brits end up begging for US reinforcement of the Middle East. Given that Auchinleck had a number of contingency fall back plans in the event the Axis armor broke through, which it did during the Alam el Haifa Battle, then it is likely the El Alamein position unravels and falls apart if/when the exhausted Gott panics and breaks out the contingency plans already in place, as the battle is happening very shortly after arriving. Monty, say what you will about him, decided to destroy the contingency plans and stand and fight even at the risk of being encircled; he had the will to fight to the bitter end, which I don't think Gott did, having been defeated at Gazala with just such a breakthrough flanking move as happened at Alam el Haifa. IMHO it is more likely than not that Gott loses his nerve and falls back from a situation he could win, thus compromising the 8th army and losing Alexandria, plus a lot of 8th army.
 
Gott was appointed after First El Alamein, you know the one where the Axis drive on Egypt was stopped
So whatever butterflies take to the air, they don't involve time running backwards
 
For starters he was assassinated by the Germans, who had access to British communications; just like Admiral Yamamoto he was shot down using SigInt intel...
Are you sure about the communications intercept? I've seen at least one suggestion, if you're referring to the Cairo US military attaché leak, that it had been identified and plugged at the end of June, more than a month before Gott's final promotion and death: https://www.cia.gov/library/center-...ence/kent-csi/vol3no4/html/v03i4a06p_0001.htm (See 'The Propagandists Blow the Source' section)
 
Given that Auchinleck had a number of contingency fall back plans in the event the Axis armor broke through, which it did during the Alam el Haifa Battle, then it is likely the El Alamein position unravels and falls apart if/when the exhausted Gott panics and breaks out the contingency plans already in place, as the battle is happening very shortly after arriving.

Auchinleck did plan to fight the battle in a completely different way. At the time the El Alamein position was not a complete line, and the German armour effectively went around the flank rather than breaking through. Auchinleck wanted to fight a 'modern mobile defensive battle' - front-line units would have been thinned out, kept their transport and on command moved to one of up to 3 alternative positions. It seems to have relied on good communications and judgement by 8th Army commanders, which had been absent up to that point. NZ Official History online is good about the details.

The other question is whether Gott would be able to 'grip' 8th Army and improve its morale - Montgomery for all his faults made it believe in itself.
 

Deleted member 1487

Are you sure about the communications intercept? I've seen at least one suggestion, if you're referring to the Cairo US military attaché leak, that it had been identified and plugged at the end of June, more than a month before Gott's final promotion and death: https://www.cia.gov/library/center-...ence/kent-csi/vol3no4/html/v03i4a06p_0001.htm (See 'The Propagandists Blow the Source' section)
https://www.amazon.co.uk/d/cka/Strafer-Desert-General-Life-Killing-Lieutenant-Gott/1781590907
It wasn't the only source of intel apparently.

Also that CIA link is suspect in accuracy: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bonner_Fellers

Gott was appointed after First El Alamein, you know the one where the Axis drive on Egypt was stopped
So whatever butterflies take to the air, they don't involve time running backwards
The initial thrust into Egypt was halted at El Alamein in July, but Rommel attacked against in August, which, potentially but for Monty, would have turned the line of the 8th army and drove them back into Alexandria or led to the fall of the city and cutting off of much of the army itself without the steady hand of a confident commander like Monty. Gott was not a steady commander.
 
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The Germans were running out of fuel even as the battle of alam el halfa was developing, and the situation was only getting worse. Let's say Gott pulls back to the outskirts of Alexandria - does Rommel have enough fuel to drive the Panzer divisions and the mass of Italian infantry to the new front line, let alone fight another battle there as well? And say the British retreat from there as well (sucks for the Fleet), how does Rommel then move on to Cairo? That's another 200 km he needs to traverse...

Assuming that no 'Act of God' allows Rommel to take Egypt, I think there's a good chance the British come out better overall, as Gott wouldn't be as cautious when pursuing Rommel, meaning the Panzerarmee Afrika never makes it to Tunisia, shortening the Allied timetable significantly.
 

Deleted member 1487

The Germans were running out of fuel even as the battle of alam el halfa was developing, and the situation was only getting worse. Let's say Gott pulls back to the outskirts of Alexandria - does Rommel have enough fuel to drive the Panzer divisions and the mass of Italian infantry to the new front line, let alone fight another battle there as well? And say the British retreat from there as well (sucks for the Fleet), how does Rommel then move on to Cairo? That's another 200 km he needs to traverse...

Assuming that no 'Act of God' allows Rommel to take Egypt, I think there's a good chance the British come out better overall, as Gott wouldn't be as cautious when pursuing Rommel, meaning the Panzerarmee Afrika never makes it to Tunisia, shortening the Allied timetable significantly.
If the Brits pull back they will leave a fair bit of fuel and supplies plus equipment, while Alexandria was a huge supply depot. Rommel had enough fuel on hand pre-battle to get to Alexandria, but bogging down and being forced to fight a maneuver battle drained that to the point that with the loss of a fuel tanker Rommel lost faith in winning and having enough fuel to continue on. Why wouldn't Gott be overcautious in his exhaustion?
 
If the Brits pull back they will leave a fair bit of fuel and supplies plus equipment, while Alexandria was a huge supply depot. Rommel had enough fuel on hand pre-battle to get to Alexandria, but bogging down and being forced to fight a maneuver battle drained that to the point that with the loss of a fuel tanker Rommel lost faith in winning and having enough fuel to continue on.
Even if Gott panics and pulls back, that would have still forced Rommel to fight some sort of battle to get to that point. Plus, relying on the enemy not managing to blow up their fuel depot is a strategy that rarely works.


Why wouldn't Gott be overcautious in his exhaustion?
Wasn't Gott constantly characterized as 'aggressive' ?
 

Deleted member 1487

Even if Gott panics and pulls back, that would have still forced Rommel to fight some sort of battle to get to that point. Plus, relying on the enemy not managing to blow up their fuel depot is a strategy that rarely works.
Literally every battle in North Africa that had the Germans advancing resulted in substantial captures of material, supplies, and fuel. In 1942 alone the Gazala/Tobruk victory enabled Rommel to have the supplies to advance, while Mersa Matruh yielded enough fuel to get to El Alamein without stopping for supplies. It is more likely than not that fuel would be captured in substantial amounts, because every time the Brits retreated they didn't blow up all or even most of their stocks in time. What was Gott's/Auchinleck's plan to fight a battle on the way to Alexandria? As it was it seems that Gott was exhausted and lost his nerve, so it is unlikely to go well for him on the retreat, especially without the reforms that Monty instituted.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/William_Gott
However, a number of factors, including a personal interview with Gott on 5 August (during which Gott had revealed that he had "...tried most of his ideas on the Boche. We want someone with new ideas and plenty of confidence in them."[22]), led Brooke to conclude that Gott was tired and had temporarily lost his drive having been in the desert since the start of the war.[23] He also felt that Gott needed more experience before taking an army command.[22]
Likely being inexperienced with that level of command would not have boded well for conduct of battle against Rommel, as the fighting would start mere weeks after taking command.

Wasn't Gott constantly characterized as 'aggressive' ?
Not after Gazala due to his exhaustion and loss in confidence in his own abilities. Repeated defeat had sapped his morale. Also his 'aggressiveness' largely resulted in disaster due to the tactical methods he clung to; he himself said he had run out of ideas and new blood was needed to try something else, but took the job on Churchill's order.
 
Even the Wikipedia article you linked to on 'Bonner Fellers' says he switched codes on June 29th, ending that leak.
Edit:
Wikipedia said:
...Fellers switched codes on June 29, ending the leaks.[11]...

I don't have the Nash book or anything else he's written; how reliable does he seem to be as a historian?
 
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Deleted member 1487

Even the Wikipedia article you linked to on 'Bonner Fellers' says he switched codes on June 29th, ending that leak.
Edit:

I don't have the Nash book or anything else he's written; how reliable does he seem to be as a historian?
I'm not disputing THAT part of it, just the part the German radio gave up the source. That was a cover for ULTRA info that shut down Fellers.
I don't know about Nash as a historian honestly, I just know he's written a lot on WW1 and WW2.
 
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