Gore wins in 2000, what happens to libertarians in the Republican Party?

In OTL it took eight years of GWB to give "small l" libertarianism a boost within the Republican Party. This was helped along by the candidacy of Representative Ron Paul which was a rallying point for those new libertarians. In the past two presidential cycles he has done better as a candidate than anyone believed a libertarian could do in the primaries.

But my question is what if Gore had won? Would we see that same faction emerge within the Republican party? Paul was supposedly on the fence about running in 2007 and 2008, so it's possible that he wouldn't be the libertarian candidate in 2004 or 2008 in an ATL. On the other hand, Gary Johnson would be a more formidible candidate in 2004 as he was just coming off a very successful governorship that ended in 2002. And there might be others as well.

Or would there even be that impulse in the party without the malgovernance of the Bush years? I have a difficult time imagining there being that discontent with the Republican establishment if it hadn't so bungled everything for eight years. So maybe it never develops at all?

What does everyone else think?
 
Gary Johnson galvanizes libertarian Republicans with his 2004 presidential bid.

Do you think so? Why?

I'm not convinced that there's enough dissatisfaction with the establishment to make Johnson or Paul popular in 2004. Maybe if the Congressional Republicans really screwed something up or were seen as capitulating to President Gore, then there could be a libertarian surge in the party?
 
It depends on 9/11

I think the big question is "does 9/11 happen under Gore's watch?" If it does, I think 2004 will see a return of the hawkish, pro-military faction of the Republican party. if we have 9/11 I think Gore would lose and lose badly in 2004 to such a candidate. Although I would imagine McCain emerging as the 2004 presidential candidate in this scenario, you can't count out a more conservative candidate (possibly with military experience) coming from nowhere to capture the nomination. This could galvanize the Lib-Rep's in 2008 and 2012, particularly those who strongly oppose foreign intervention.
If 9/11 is thwarted, I think then we have one of two scenarios. The Rep's nominate a moderate, yet charismatic, candidate who defeats Gore. This could, depending on his fiscal policies, spur Lib-Rep's in 2008 and 2012 on a more fiscal platform, which could in turn become allied with the TEA Party movement, which might alienate some of the social libertarian Republicans like Gary Johnson. However, if the Republicans nominate a staunchly conservative candidate who ultimately is "too far to the right" of mainstream America and loses to Gore in '04, I think the Lib-Rep's become less likely to emerge as distinct factions of the party. 16 years of Democratic rule will bring all the Republicans in line in that instance.
 
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