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Let's say that Gore wins in 2000. For the sake of argument, let's assume that 9-11 (or a similar event) still occurs. (I'm aware that it could arguably have been foiled, even if just through butterfly effects).

Let's further say that Gore still orders a US military intervention in Afghanistan, but that he does not launch the war in Iraq. (Again, I'm aware there is some debate about this issue.)

What would be the effects on global politics? Like many here I'm more up-to-date on European politics than other countries, so the ones that come to mind are the UK, France, and Germany.

In Germany, Schroeder's (narrow) SDP win in 2002 was credited in part to his opposition to the Iraq War. Would this be enough to elect Stoiber? And if so what becomes of Angela Merkel, still CDU chair but not chancellor?

In France, would there have been an effect on the 2002 election? Would Jospin have been able to defeat Le Pen and make the runoff? I'm more skeptical here, given that the spring of 2002 (before the push for the Iraq War really hit) was maybe too early for the Iraq War and US popularity to have much of an effect.

How about on British politics, though? The 2006 coup that forced Blair to pledge to step down by 2007 was partially instigated by his already low ratings over Iraq and the Lebanon War (and the leak of the "Yo, Blair!" audio).

Absent the plunge in Blair's popularity following Iraq, would Blair have been confident enough to remove Brown? Would he have been able to stay in office until 2008 or 2009? He almost certainly wins a larger majority in 2005, for one thing.

Thoughts? Any other global elections or political changes resulting from the absence of an anti-Bush effect?
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