Gordon Brown Premiership in 1997?

For my latest TL, I'm doing some research- what if Gordon Brown is elected Prime Minister in 1997, having become Labour leader a few years earlier (Blair either never stands, or is defeated). How does the country change? I'm assuming Brown isn't going to be able to achieve the messianic level of support Blair had, but it's very likely he'd get a solid majority of seventy or eighty seats. So what happens next?
 
I honest don't think he'll do too badly. I think we'll see slightly less neo liberalism on his part, given the lack of Blair and Mandelson as the embodiment of New Labour; having said that, don't expect too big a difference. Just look at what he did in OTL considering he allegedly had complete independence on economic policy.

Hi first summer seemed to show a guy who's good in a crisis and who does theoretically have the potential to be a half good leader.
 
I honest don't think he'll do too badly. I think we'll see slightly less neo liberalism on his part, given the lack of Blair and Mandelson as the embodiment of New Labour; having said that, don't expect too big a difference. Just look at what he did in OTL considering he allegedly had complete independence on economic policy.

Hi first summer seemed to show a guy who's good in a crisis and who does theoretically have the potential to be a half good leader.
Assuming Brown won, he probably wouldnt have run against Blair, meaning there is no split with Mandelson and Blair still would be a very important figure in a Brown government.
 

Thande

Donor
Brown gets to capitalise on the economic boom resulting from the deathbed policies of the last Tory government just as Blair did in OTL, but given Brown's own misplaced reputation as an economic wizard it probably works even better for him. The minor British cultural outpouring in the early Blair years probably doesn't happen. Expect an even more presidential style of government. Debatable what happens in 2001 (assuming that's when he calls the election; knowing Brown, more likely to be 2002): considering in this scenario Brown won with a smaller majority than Blair, that means a lot of senior and promising up-and-coming Tories who lost their seats in OTL won't have done, meaning the Tory party of 1997-2001 isn't so much of a headless chicken. Portillo might still be around, for one. Given that Brown was always strongly opposed to joining the euro (one of his few good points IMO) then we also won't see the Tory leader (Hague or not?) trying to build an entire campaign on defending the pound.

On balance I think Labour would probably win another term in 2001/2 by default, too many people will still be burned by the last Tory government (heck, that's an issue even today nearly a decade later). But whether their majority gets bigger or smaller is harder to say.
 
Given that Brown was always strongly opposed to joining the euro

Mandelson is and was hugely in favour, though. Which would be fun if there's no falling out between them ITTL.

I think people are underestimating the problems Brown is going to face. The people in the shadow cabinet and the 1997-2001 cabinet weren't Blair or Brown wanabees as they all are now, they were by and large independent politicians who in many cases despised Brown. They didn't all get on with Blair, but people utterly hated Brown - Mowlam, Cook; Prescott and Straw have always been lukewarm. Blair's charm and people skills got it all to work in OTL, but Brown is going to face fallings out left right and centre and I can certainly see Cook or Mowlam resigning before the end of the first term to much acclaim.

Brown is going to leave the Tories with a lot of ammunition whoever gets in on their side - he's Blair without the charisma and political dexterity, Smith without the moral compass and political drive, he's basically a very shit leader. He'll allienate the left of the party whilst not giving the rest the feeling of direction. (Blair never really knew what on earth he wanted to do in government, but he did at least have control over it and there was a feeling things were going somewhere, even if the destination was obscure.)

Oh and Charlie Wheelan will be TTLs Alastair Campbell. Another reason to suppose everything will go to pot sooner or later.
 
Last edited:

Thande

Donor
I think people are underestimating the problems Brown is going to face. The people in the shadow cabinet and the 1997-2001 cabinet weren't Blair or Brown wanabees as they all are now, they were by and large independent politicians who in many cases despised Brown. They didn't all get on with Blair, but people utterly hated Brown - Mowlam, Cook; Prescott and Straw have always been lukewarm. Blair's charm and people skills got it all to work in OTL, but Brown is going to face fallings out left right and centre and I can see Cook or Mowlam resigning before the end of the first term to much acclaim.

Good point, one tends to forget these things now that most of the Labour politicians with a mind of their own have been vaporised.

Here's another thing to ponder: could Brown have pulled off the Good Friday Agreement? And if not, what would the situation in Northern Ireland be today compared to OTL?
 
Probably not actually. Blair and Mowlam were the dream team in getting it hashed out and without the personalities involved in OTL there's a good reason to suppose it might not happen.

Needless to say, this wouldn't be a good thing for NI. I'm sure something would have been worked out eventually, but it would have been a longer road and things wouldn't be so far advanced as they are now.
 
Top