Hmm, I think Labour will win, but not by a huge majority. Will Brown screw up or not? Or shall I rephrase it: how much will Brown screw up?
I don't know whether he'd be kicked out as leader automatically; that would be the third change of leader in just four years, and the party has got to be cautious of upsetting the apple cart again. If Cameron plays his cards right, sacks George Osborne and puts either Davis or Hague in as Shadow Chancellor, he has a good chance of surviving.
If he doesn't make some radical changes, though, he will be pushed out. If either that happens, or he resigns, presumably David Davis is the frontrunner (again). Liam Fox will presumably be his main rival on the right, with maybe Gove or Osborne on the left, though I don't see either of them with a serious chance. Clarke and Rifkind are now definitely too "John Major-era" to stand. Hague might be persuaded to have another crack at it; a clear Thatcherite who supported Cameron could be compromise candidate.
I read an article in the Spectator back just before Brown became PM in which senior Conservatives pledged that they would continue backing Cameron and his agenda even if they lost the next election. Although he would probably have to show willing by making concessions such as throwing the unpopular Osbourne to the wolves.
I read an article in the Spectator back just before Brown became PM in which senior Conservatives pledged that they would continue backing Cameron and his agenda even if they lost the next election. Although he would probably have to show willing by making concessions such as throwing the unpopular Osbourne to the wolves.
What if Osborne still made his inheritance tax announcement and that still saw a poll boost? Osborne would then likely be credited with improving the result.
He strikes me as one of the most consistently underestimated politicians around at the moment. He has pulled things out of the hat again and again.
If he manages to 'sell' the Spending Review in two days' time, he'll remain one of the most unpleasant men ever to sit in Number 11 but admittedly will have to be applauded as a master of politicking and telling people what they want. I remain unconvinced.
The man who has spent a year warning of grim austerity - he has a funny way of telling people what they want to hear. Thande's comment above seems to have been the opposite reason for criticism to yours.
The austerity message was a gamble: sometimes there are points for honesty, sometimes you worry people. It was certainly better in the long-term to have warned of cuts before the election.
Quite why Osborne is unpleasant I have no idea. I might have thought an unpleasant occupant of the Treasury threw mobile phones around, bullied his colleagues and had his SPADs bully civil servants.
He did in 2010. I don't see why he wouldnt in 2007.Any news from Scotland or Wales? (I hope SNP or Plaid do well..) How about NI?
BTW, did David Tennant do any campaign adverts for Labour?
I understand where you're coming from with the minor parties, however I think you can't have a popular Liberal Democrat third party where protest votes will go and minor parties which are regularly used as protest votes.
This is especially true in Wyre Forest where the Liberal Democrats haven't been standing recently and supporting Health Concern until the last election, so I think you can't have the Lib Dems standing and have Health Concern win.
Also I'm interested in where you're having Nigel Farage stand (being a UKIP supporter myself). It won't be Buckingham seeing as he only chose that constituency due to the Speaker being there. However in this TL would he have stood in Bromley and Chislehurst? He stood there the year before in a by-election and got 8.1% of the vote, so it'd be a prime location due to awareness of UKIP and his own votes the year prior.
Ming Campbell, LDm 19,208 54.45%
Miles Briggs, Con 6,164 17.47%
Rod Campbell, SNP 3,669 10.40%
Mark Hood, Lab 3,582 10.15%
Green 1,673 4.74%
UKInd 593 1.68%
ScotSoc 381 1.08%
Gisela Stuart, Lab 12,228 34.55%
Deirdre Alden, Con 11,822 33.41%
Roger Harmer, LDm 7,195 20.33%
Green 2,592 7.32%
BNP 803 2.26%
UKInd 724 2.04%