Gordon Brown calls a snap General Election in 2007 - A Timeline

yourworstnightmare

Banned
Donor
Hmm, I think Labour will win, but not by a huge majority. Will Brown screw up or not? Or shall I rephrase it: how much will Brown screw up?
 
Nick Robinson - "Remember the Lib Dems' 'decapitation strategy' in 2005? Well, they did not adopt that strategy this time, but I'm hearing that Liam Fox, the Shadow Defense Secretary, may be in trouble in North Somerset."

David Dimbleby - "We can go now to Barking, where BNP leader Nick Griffin is challenging Margaret Hodge, the Labour MP."

Nick Griffin, BNP, 15,143 35.53%
Margaret Hodge, Lab 13,282 31.16%
Simon Marcus, Con 5,340 12.53%
Dominic Carman, LDm 4,749 11.14%
Green 2,462 5.77%
UK Independence Party 1,136 2.66%
Independent 452 1.06%
Workers Revolutionary Party 50 0.11%

Total votes - 42,614 Turnout - 56.52% (+6.4%)

BNP Majority - 1,861 - 4.37%
BNP Gain From Lab
Swing from Labour to BNP of 19.22%

David Dimbleby - "Well....this a very signifcant result. The British National Party, considered by many to be a racist organization, have won their first-ever seat in Parliament. Anthony King, make do you make of this?"

Anthony King - "Well, this is a very remarkable result, and many would say a disgraceful result. If the BNP continue to perform this well, it could set them up as a major challenger to the Labour Party in many working-class seats."

David Dimbleby - "I think that Jeremy now has Nick Griffin with him."

Jeremy Paxman - "Yes, I do indeed have the leader of the BNP, and the newly elected MP for Barking Nick Griffin with me. Mr Griffin, are you proud of having got rid of a Jewish MP?"

Nick Griffin - "What sort of nonsensical question is that? I wouldn't expect much better from you, but even by your standards that's low."

Jeremy Paxman - "Well, in 1997 you said “I am well aware that the orthodox opinion is that six million Jews were gassed and cremated or turned into lampshades. Orthodox opinion also once held that the earth is flat…I have reached the conclusion that the ‘extermination’ tale is a mixture of Allied wartime propaganda, extremely profitable lie, and latter day witch-hysteria.” After coming out with such blathering nonsense like that, surely you have no problem with ousting a Jewish MP, correct?"

Nick Griffin - "Look, my father served in the RAF during the Second World War. I am not a Nazi. I never have been."

Jeremy Paxman - "And yet you implied that the Holocaust was a hoax...."

Nick Griffin - "First of all, that's a quote of mine from ten years ago. Second, denying the Holocaust does not mean that one is a full-on Nazi."

Jeremy Paxman - "I never said it did. However, your party is also in favor of the re-nationalization of various British industries, the restoration of the death penalty, is opposed to any kind of rights for homosexuals, is in favor of making Britain a completely Christian nation. Please, don't be a lying fool. If you admitted to being a Nazi, which you are, your party would not even get 0.1% of the vote."

Nick Griffin - "Fine." *walks off*
 
Again, I must despair at the BNP getting such success in 2007 of all years. MPs expenses hasn't happened yet, the European Election successes haven't rejuvenated them, and Griffin never stood a chance in 2010 (he only got 6000 votes) with all those factors in their favour, so I really don't see where this success has come from. Hodge was a popular MP prior to expenses, a real threat from Griffin would see a rallying change and no doubt the same Hope Not Hate campaign that demolished the BNP around the country anyway.

I think that while this is an interesting premise, it would have been more realistic to go with a parliament set out like the polls estimated them to be before Conference Season 2007 (small Labour majority) and see how a legitimised and five years-to-go Brown government handles the upcoming economic crisis. That said, this is still interesting and even amusing at times - your Paxman/Griffin exchange had me chuckling. So don't worry, you haven't sunk to Cumbria-level 'this is what I want to happen in my head, now damn all the evidence against it being at all realistic, Enoch Powell is going to be Prime Minister in the 1980s' absurdity.
 

Thande

Donor
I don't know whether he'd be kicked out as leader automatically; that would be the third change of leader in just four years, and the party has got to be cautious of upsetting the apple cart again. If Cameron plays his cards right, sacks George Osborne and puts either Davis or Hague in as Shadow Chancellor, he has a good chance of surviving.

If he doesn't make some radical changes, though, he will be pushed out. If either that happens, or he resigns, presumably David Davis is the frontrunner (again). Liam Fox will presumably be his main rival on the right, with maybe Gove or Osborne on the left, though I don't see either of them with a serious chance. Clarke and Rifkind are now definitely too "John Major-era" to stand. Hague might be persuaded to have another crack at it; a clear Thatcherite who supported Cameron could be compromise candidate.

I read an article in the Spectator back just before Brown became PM in which senior Conservatives pledged that they would continue backing Cameron and his agenda even if they lost the next election. Although he would probably have to show willing by making concessions such as throwing the unpopular Osbourne to the wolves.
 
I read an article in the Spectator back just before Brown became PM in which senior Conservatives pledged that they would continue backing Cameron and his agenda even if they lost the next election. Although he would probably have to show willing by making concessions such as throwing the unpopular Osbourne to the wolves.

Yes, I can see that happening. Davis would probably become Shadow Chancellor and various other shakeups would be concessions to the Right of the party.
 
I read an article in the Spectator back just before Brown became PM in which senior Conservatives pledged that they would continue backing Cameron and his agenda even if they lost the next election. Although he would probably have to show willing by making concessions such as throwing the unpopular Osbourne to the wolves.

What if Osborne still made his inheritance tax announcement and that still saw a poll boost? Osborne would then likely be credited with improving the result.

He strikes me as one of the most consistently underestimated politicians around at the moment. He has pulled things out of the hat again and again.
 
What if Osborne still made his inheritance tax announcement and that still saw a poll boost? Osborne would then likely be credited with improving the result.

He strikes me as one of the most consistently underestimated politicians around at the moment. He has pulled things out of the hat again and again.

If he manages to 'sell' the Spending Review in two days' time, he'll remain one of the most unpleasant men ever to sit in Number 11 but admittedly will have to be applauded as a master of politicking and telling people what they want. I remain unconvinced.
 

Thande

Donor
Wasn't the loss of the Conservative poll lead prior to the 2010 election in OTL attributed to Osbourne speaking of the need for "swingeing cuts" with positive relish?
 
If he manages to 'sell' the Spending Review in two days' time, he'll remain one of the most unpleasant men ever to sit in Number 11 but admittedly will have to be applauded as a master of politicking and telling people what they want. I remain unconvinced.

The man who has spent a year warning of grim austerity - he has a funny way of telling people what they want to hear. Thande's comment above seems to have been the opposite reason for criticism to yours.

The austerity message was a gamble: sometimes there are points for honesty, sometimes you worry people. It was certainly better in the long-term to have warned of cuts before the election.

Quite why Osborne is unpleasant I have no idea. I might have thought an unpleasant occupant of the Treasury threw mobile phones around, bullied his colleagues and had his SPADs bully civil servants.
 
The man who has spent a year warning of grim austerity - he has a funny way of telling people what they want to hear. Thande's comment above seems to have been the opposite reason for criticism to yours.

The austerity message was a gamble: sometimes there are points for honesty, sometimes you worry people. It was certainly better in the long-term to have warned of cuts before the election.

Quite why Osborne is unpleasant I have no idea. I might have thought an unpleasant occupant of the Treasury threw mobile phones around, bullied his colleagues and had his SPADs bully civil servants.

His ideology is deeply unpleasant.

And you misunderstood my remark - read it again, I didn't say telling people what they wanted to hear, I said telling people what they want. In other words, he says 'you want austerity' and people clap their hands and bow their heads while he closes their hospitals, schools et cetera. And that's what I was speculating over - if he does manage to convince the public that this is what they want he will indeed be laudable as a Karl Rovian Machiavelli of politicking. If he fails - as Thande points out, as he has done before - such 'praise' will be misplaced.
 
Any news from Scotland or Wales? (I hope SNP or Plaid do well..) How about NI?
BTW, did David Tennant do any campaign adverts for Labour?
 
(Reviving this)

DD: "Let's look at the seat totals:

Labour - 96
Conservatives - 24
Liberal Democrats - 22
Others - 12

I think we can now go to Wyre Forest, where the imcumbent MP, Dr. Richard Taylor, is defending his seat."

Richard Taylor, KHHC 17448 - 38.57%
Mark Garnier, Con 11617 - 25.68%
Nigel Knowles, Lab 7662 - 16.94%
Green 2615 - 5.78%
Lib 2482 - 5.48%
Neville Farmer, LDm 2074 - 4.58%
UKInd 1047 - 2.31%
Lny 282 - 0.62%
Total 45227 60.08%
KHHC Majority 5831 12.89%

KHHC HOLD
 
I understand where you're coming from with the minor parties, however I think you can't have a popular Liberal Democrat third party where protest votes will go and minor parties which are regularly used as protest votes.

This is especially true in Wyre Forest where the Liberal Democrats haven't been standing recently and supporting Health Concern until the last election, so I think you can't have the Lib Dems standing and have Health Concern win.

Also I'm interested in where you're having Nigel Farage stand (being a UKIP supporter myself). It won't be Buckingham seeing as he only chose that constituency due to the Speaker being there. However in this TL would he have stood in Bromley and Chislehurst? He stood there the year before in a by-election and got 8.1% of the vote, so it'd be a prime location due to awareness of UKIP and his own votes the year prior.
 
I understand where you're coming from with the minor parties, however I think you can't have a popular Liberal Democrat third party where protest votes will go and minor parties which are regularly used as protest votes.

This is especially true in Wyre Forest where the Liberal Democrats haven't been standing recently and supporting Health Concern until the last election, so I think you can't have the Lib Dems standing and have Health Concern win.

Also I'm interested in where you're having Nigel Farage stand (being a UKIP supporter myself). It won't be Buckingham seeing as he only chose that constituency due to the Speaker being there. However in this TL would he have stood in Bromley and Chislehurst? He stood there the year before in a by-election and got 8.1% of the vote, so it'd be a prime location due to awareness of UKIP and his own votes the year prior.

Stay tuned. ;)
 
State of the parties at 3:00AM:

Labour - 118
Conservatives - 35
Liberal Democrats - 28
Others - 15

DD: Let's now take a trip to North East Fife, whiich is the seat of Ming Campbell.

Ming Campbell, LDm 19,208 54.45%
Miles Briggs, Con 6,164 17.47%
Rod Campbell, SNP 3,669 10.40%
Mark Hood, Lab 3,582 10.15%
Green 1,673 4.74%
UKInd 593 1.68%
ScotSoc 381 1.08%

LDm Majority 13044 36.98%
Swing from Conservative to Lib. Dem. of 2.19%


Liberal Democrat HOLD

DD: Now let's listen to what Mr. Campbell has to say:

[QUOTE]Thank you, thank you. My constituents, I feel so honoured that you have put your faith in me again. I want to thank my campaign workers, who have helped to deliver an increased majority for me tonight. I also want to of course thank the fellow candidates for the civilised and friendly campaign, and my dear family and friends. Looking at the result from a national viewpoint, it is clear that our party is going to make significant inroads. I feel that the voters of this great country have sent a message to the Westminster elites. They no longer want an old, tired, out of date two-party system.[/QUOTE]


DD: And now we can go to Birmingham Edgbaston, one of the most marginal seats in the country. The Tories will be very upset if they have not taken this.

Gisela Stuart, Lab 12,228 34.55%
Deirdre Alden, Con 11,822 33.41%
Roger Harmer, LDm 7,195 20.33%
Green 2,592 7.32%
BNP 803 2.26%
UKInd 724 2.04%

Lab Majority 406 1.15%
Swing from Labour to Conservative of 2.13%


Labour HOLD

DD: Well, well, well. Gisela Stuart has managed to hold on. What do you make of this Anthony?

AK: Well, I was half-expecting this actually. Gisela Stuart is a popular MP, and is centrist enough to attract voters who would otherwise have voted Conservative. Still, this is a major blow to the Tories' hopes.
 
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