GOP nominate Colin Powell in 2000. What does the Electoral Map look like?

2000 was a low-enthusiasm election, though not to the extent of 1996. The makeup of the electorate with a more exciting proposition is likely to move an even map in Powell's favor. Especially if he can pull 25% of the black vote (or more).

A right-wing 3rd party would shift it back some of the way. But the ability of such a candidate to capitalize on conservative disappointment would be blunted by the establishment sticking with their nominee, not to mention the minefield of race-related missteps such a candidate and its supporters are likely to make.

Considering Bush pushed to the middle and Gore pushed back, I doubt he'd do different here. But with a right-wing third-party candidate on the books, more liberal voters might feel comfortable abandoning Gore (personally I remember it being a soul-searching moment for a lot of people IOTL).

So I think Powell has a fair shot of a victory, but the map is harder to predict. By playing the margins it could be a landslide or fairly close, but I think it's his to lose.

As has been said, you have to probs my make him a widower, and also the likelihood of him winning the nomination is the real question to overcome.

If McCain doesn't run it will help. Also, if he picks W as his VP, then his chances will be a lot better
 
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Sarah Palin seemed pretty damn sane before she got on a live mic next to Joe Biden. But by the time the RNC could be like "we fucked up," she was already on the ticket and it was too late to replace her.

I think they'll always remember screwing up. Their last two running mates (Ryan, Pence) both seem like normal people (or Pence did at the time). I feel like they went out of they're way to do that. Imagine the nightmares a Trump-Christie or a Trump-Gingrich ticket would have caused!
 

Wallet

Banned
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This was the polls before George W. Bush DUI came out. Its easy to forget, but Dubya led almost the entire election and the October surprise made it a lot closer. If anything, a lot of people thought Bush was going to win the popular vote while Gore might win the electoral vote. I assume Powell does better than Bush because of no DUI. A few conservatives might stay home though, but there will be a lot of moderates/independents which voted for Gore will vote for Powell. Powell would win Oregon, New Mexico, Wisconsin, and Iowa. Gore won these states less then 1%. Lots of states were really close OTL.

I think Nader will do better. He will win more liberals since Gore will be even more centrist and moderate.

Its also possible that Powell also wins Michigan and Pennsylvania, it depends on the black vote. While I think the majority would still vote Democratic, the excitement of the first black president might swing a few towards the GOP. You need 4% to swing these two states, but I'm not a cultural expert so I'm not sure. Bill Clinton was still very popular with the black community and the 1990s did see serious economic growth for the black community that has never been seen before (or since).

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Honestly, I think the best results for the GOP would have been a Bush/Powell ticket with no DUI. With that, the GOP might win Minnesota and be close in other states.
 
If he didn't choose someone like Palin, he would have lost even worse.
Even if that's true, which I'm not about to believe, you would be admitting that BPs matter. So you're conceding thr point.

But then we are talking about the one VP choice that clearly mattered the most. Not a good benchmark for the question.
 
Even if that's true, which I'm not about to believe, you would be admitting that BPs matter. So you're conceding thr point.

But then we are talking about the one VP choice that clearly mattered the most. Not a good benchmark for the question.
I said many, not all. This was one of the few cases where it did matter.
 
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