good news for the Entente 98 years ago

In April 1915, Gallipoli falls and Allied troops capture Istanbul. The sultan surrenders. Also that month the US Congress declares war on Germany. The unrestricted came two years earlier. German Foreign Minister Von Jagow prepared for US coming into the war by telegraphing his Ambassador to Mexico and asking him to propose and alliance with Mexico and post war reward of territory lost in 1848. The Von Jagow telegram angered the vast majority of the US. So what happens next?
 
The main effects are:
-British troops tied up in the Orient are freed up and will be transferred to the Balkans.
-The opened Straits link Russia to its Allies. This might considerably help
-Bulgaria remains neutral; increasing Entente pressure on them, Romania and Greece to join the war and open a link to support Serbia. If Serbia cannot be subdued, Austria-Hungary will have a three-front-war for longer than they can take it
-Russian Army gets rid of the burden of the Kaukasus front, more focus on the main front; some farmers can be released back into civilian life
-the US will mobilize and start fielding an army during the course of 1916; that means: for the planned offensives of 1916, Britain and France can use heir manpower recklessly to grind the Germans down, assuming that if they don't manage, the US will finish the job in 1917
-blockade will tighten after US declaration of war, another malus for the CP

After these "good news", the CP don't stand a chance. Starting negotiations still in 1915 would be the wisest thing to do. The longer the war takes, the worse it gets. If the CP wait until they are beaten militarily, I assume that over the course of 1916 they will get to the breaking point. If revolution doesn't break out, their military will be crushed in the spring offensives of 1917 - at the VERY latest.
 

katchen

Banned
If the CPs start negotiations in 1915, Germany dosen't turn Lenin loose to destabilize Russia. The Tsar survives.
 

Germaniac

Donor
If the CPs start negotiations in 1915, Germany dosen't turn Lenin loose to destabilize Russia. The Tsar survives.

The Tsar was pretty much gone either way, but maybe the February Revolution may stick if Germany is going sour.
 
The Tsar was pretty much gone either way, but maybe the February Revolution may stick if Germany is going sour.

Errr....no. The Tsar (or his Allies) would have WON the war by 1916;which is easier on Russia then OTL, too. With the Army still intact, there might be some social unrest, but no revolution.

Also, I have wondered about the Balkans ITTL. One of the PODs say that Gallipoli works as imagined. Then we have a large Entente force in European Turkey, idling around. How about promising Bulgaria a good deal of exactly that part of Turkey in exchange for an entry on the Entente's side? Or would it be imaginable that the Entente simply invades Bulgaria from their Istanbul-base in order to link up with Serbia ASAP?
 
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In April 1915, Gallipoli falls and Allied troops capture Istanbul. The sultan surrenders. Also that month the US Congress declares war on Germany. The unrestricted came two years earlier. German Foreign Minister Von Jagow prepared for US coming into the war by telegraphing his Ambassador to Mexico and asking him to propose and alliance with Mexico and post war reward of territory lost in 1848. The Von Jagow telegram angered the vast majority of the US. So what happens next?

What triggers unrestricted submarine warfare and a proposal to Mexico two years earlier than in OTL? The former, I could sort of rationalize as a response to losing Gallipoli and Turkey leaving the war, but why would von Jagow risk pissing off the US when there was still considerable pro-German sentiment at the time (see, for example, the editorial columns of H. L. Mencken in the Baltimore Sunpapers of the day)? Seems to me he'd want to do everything to continue/ensure US neutrality rather than roll the dice on a possible distraction that might well wind up as a sinkhole for CP materiél and money.
 
Even without the US declaring war, its really bad new for the CP.

With the extra resources available, its quite possible the Russian revolution never happens, in which case by 1917 the CP are in real trouble, and A-H is quite possible already collapsing (or collapsed!).

It would seem quite feasable that in that case Germany would have resorted to unrestricted submarine warfare earlier (possibly immediately after Jutland, say), dragging the USA in in 1916.

I wonder what a Versailles with the Tsar and possibly no USA would have been like, if the CP collapse before the USA declares war?
 
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