GOM RIP - Gladstone dies during the Midlothian Campaign

I was wondering what people think the butterflies would be of Gladstone never seeing a second ministry? He dies by chance, a fall or heart attack, I'm more interested what effect it would have on British politics from 1879 onwards.

IOTL Gladstone dominated Liberal and national politics well into the 1890s, ensuring a split with Joseph Chamberlain's unionist wing and a dedication to laissez-faire economics that left the Party divided until the 1909 People's Budget firmly placed the Liberals in the interventionist camp.

I was wondering people's thoughts on the POD?

I'd imagine the Liberals will still win the 1880 General Election, although with a reduced majority. Lord Hartington would become Prime Minister, as he was offered such before Gladstone IOTL, and Lord Granville, the Liberal leader in the Lords is far too much of a damp flannel to present decent opposition or alternative (Hartington refused No. 10 several times in the 1880s so probably wont be 100% keen). Notably Hartington was oppossed to Home Rule even before his brother was murdered in the Phoinex Park attacks, and if such an event where to take place ITTL it wouldn't improve matters. Despite this and his early leadership of the Liberal Unionists he was at odds with Chamberlain over Tariff Reform, however this didn't rear its head until the 1900s.

So ideas?
 
Jape

Very interesting possibilities. Often wondered about this myself. I think the two big points that come to mind you're already touched upon.

a) Without Gladstone pushing Home Rule the Liberals will have a lot more capital and time for other activities and hopefully make use of it. It would mean that Ireland might continue to be a problem but without Gladstone stirring it and raising Irish nationalist/imperialist aspirations it might stay fairly silent.

b) Coupled with the if Chamberlain stays in the Liberals and eventually gains power then you would have the Liberals more clearly as the party of reform and the move against laisse-faire would be quicker and more logical.

If you could get real social reform, especially in terms of proper industrial and educational policies then things could improve drastically for Britain at the start of the 20thC century.

The big impact might be if Chamberlain gained the top spot and managed an alliance with Germany which might butterfly WWI. Although this would be difficult with some of the forces at work.

Steve

I was wondering what people think the butterflies would be of Gladstone never seeing a second ministry? He dies by chance, a fall or heart attack, I'm more interested what effect it would have on British politics from 1879 onwards.

IOTL Gladstone dominated Liberal and national politics well into the 1890s, ensuring a split with Joseph Chamberlain's unionist wing and a dedication to laissez-faire economics that left the Party divided until the 1909 People's Budget firmly placed the Liberals in the interventionist camp.

I was wondering people's thoughts on the POD?

I'd imagine the Liberals will still win the 1880 General Election, although with a reduced majority. Lord Hartington would become Prime Minister, as he was offered such before Gladstone IOTL, and Lord Granville, the Liberal leader in the Lords is far too much of a damp flannel to present decent opposition or alternative (Hartington refused No. 10 several times in the 1880s so probably wont be 100% keen). Notably Hartington was oppossed to Home Rule even before his brother was murdered in the Phoinex Park attacks, and if such an event where to take place ITTL it wouldn't improve matters. Despite this and his early leadership of the Liberal Unionists he was at odds with Chamberlain over Tariff Reform, however this didn't rear its head until the 1900s.

So ideas?
 
I have to admit my knowledge of the pro-Home Rule faction in the Liberal Party is quite poor but does anyone know how strong it could be without Gladstone's tireless support?

I imagine the Unionist split might never happen, and if Chamberlain can gain control in the 1890s, things will get interesting. After all it was the Unionist split which allowed the Tories to return to government in the late Victorian period, with no such thing the Liberals could prove overwhelmingly dominant into the 20th century.

Be interesting to see where Irish nationalism goes without Gladstone, will Parnell's parliamentarians be sidelined by the militant IRB, reducing Home Rule to a fringe movement. Then again the likes of Chamberlain occassionally mentioned 'Home Rule for All' the constituent nations of the UK as an altenative - realistically the best you'll will probably be a dedicated Irish Office, removing power from Dublin Castle - if the Liberals can get an Irishmen to govern the Office all the better.

Still, I'll do some reading on Lord Hartington to see how his ministry could pan, he's interesting in that he was permanently the solid Liberal/Liberal Unionist choice for PM for twenty years and yet always refused to gamble seizing power - as such he's totally unknown to the modern world, something of a British analogue to Bryans in many ways.
 
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