Goeben Atlantic breakout

[Kantai Kessen]

According to Conway's 1906-21 the ranges of Goeben and Breslau (with full coal bunkers) were:

Goeben 4,120 nautical miles at 17 knots​

Breslau 5,820 nautical miles at 12 knots or 900 nautical miles at 25 knots.​

Port of Lisboa (Lisbon), Portugal to Port of Ponta Delgada, Portugal sea route and distance

Port of Lisboa (Lisbon), Portugal to Port of Ponta Delgada, Portugal sea route and distance.

ports.com

According to the above website it's 3,684 nautical miles from Pola to Wilhelmshaven via the English Channel. The journey would take 9.0 days at 17 knots including 8.1 days for the 3,301 nautical miles between Pola and Dover.

So I think Souchon has to leave Pola before Midnight on Sunday 26th July if he's to reach Wilhelmshaven before the British declaration of war. Except, the Germans didn't know that the British Government would declare war on 4th August 1914.

An extra light cruiser wouldn't go amiss either.

If Goeben and Breslau gets back in early August, do you:

(a) Think Heligoland Bight might be a bit better for the Germans with an extra CL potentially responding? Might sink Arethusa and kill Tyrwhitt, with big ramifications, or perhaps shoot up some RN Destroyers.
(b) Think Dogger Bank and Jutland will be impacted in a way more beneficial to the Germans?

Also, if Souchon gets back, what would he be doing? Historically he was made CO IV Battle Squadron but that was after coming back from the Ottomans about 1917, IIRC.

 

[Kantai Kessen]

The relative strengths at Heligoland were 5 battlecruisers, 8 light cruisers, 33 destroyers and 8 submarines for the RN versus 6 light cruisers, 19 torpedo boats and 12 minesweepers for the IGN. Cutting a couple of BCs or even all of them still doesn't tilt the balance in the German's favour. Anyway, Heligoland was a planned attack by the British, not an encounter battle. If they lose the BCs they either cancel it altogether or adjust the plan.

Read Castles of Steel. The British were in a bit of a pickle before Beatty turned up. This is not true. The Germans were doing fairly well until Lion and co showed up.

Although I agree that, if the BCs are pulled to chase Goeben, the plan will have to be altered significantly. Tyrwhitt and Keyes were insistent on, in fact, the support of the ENTIRE Grand Fleet during the operation (vetoed by Sturdee, who then reluctantly allowed 1st BCS and 1st LCS to be deployed). A delayed/cancelled op might have consequences.

 

[Deleted member 94680]

Read Castles of Steel. The British were in a bit of a pickle before Beatty turned up. This is not true. The Germans were doing fairly well until Lion and co showed up.

I’ve read Castles of Steel. The end result would imply the pickle wasn’t that big, although I agree that Beatty's BCs were the decisive factor.

Although I agree that, if the BCs are pulled to chase Goeben, the plan will have to be altered significantly. Tyrwhitt and Keyes were insistent on, in fact, the support of the ENTIRE Grand Fleet during the operation (vetoed by Sturdee, who then reluctantly allowed 1st BCS and 1st LCS to be deployed). A delayed/cancelled op might have consequences.

I imagine an immediate consequence would be continued IGN patrols? OTL after the 'disaster' of Heligoland, the Kaiser instituted the restrictions on the Navy's freedom of action. Absent 1BHB, he probably won't get involved.

It should be noted that Tyrwhitt and Keyes wanted a Light Cruiser Squadron as support to their plan of Destroyers and Submarines. It was Jellicoe that wanted to move the Grand Fleet south to aid the attack, but was reduced to Beatty's BCs. Maybe the original plan goes ahead? Maybe more Light Cruisers are added in the absence of otherwise committed BCs? Maybe, as you say, we have the "Sturdee Plan" instead of 2 BCs and some Armoured Crusiers?

 

[NOMISYRRUC]

Are you sure on this? Everything I have seen so far gave this range at 14 knots. If it is 17 most of my calculations are off.

I made a reado. Several reados in fact, because it read it incorrectly several times to make sure I had read it correctly and read it wrong each time.

You're 100% correct. Conway's 1906-21 does say 4,120 nautical miles at 14 knots. The ranges of the British battlecruisers from the same source were:

3,090 nautical miles at 10 knots Invincible class on 3,085 tons of coal and 710-725 tons of oil.​

6,330 nautical miles at 10 knots Indefatigable on 3,340 tons of coal and 870 tons of oil.​

6,330 nautical miles at 10 knots Australia and New Zealand on 3,170 tons of coal and 840 tons of oil.​

5,610 nautical miles at 10 knots Lion and Princess Royal on 3,500 tons of coal and 1,135 tons tons of oil.​

5,610 nautical miles at 10 knots Queen Mary on 3,600 tons of coal and 1,170 tons of oil.​

4,650 nautical miles at 10 knots Tiger on 2,450 tons of coal and 2,450 tons of oil.​

Reado noun informal (invented by NOMISYRRUC at 11:45 GMT on 26th March 2021) a reading error.

 

[NOMISYRRUC]

If Goeben and Breslau gets back in early August, do you:

(a) Think Heligoland Bight might be a bit better for the Germans with an extra CL potentially responding? Might sink Arethusa and kill Tyrwhitt, with big ramifications, or perhaps shoot up some RN Destroyers.
(b) Think Dogger Bank and Jutland will be impacted in a way more beneficial to the Germans?

I'm not going to comment on the Heligoland Bight and Dogger Bank because don't remember enough about them.

The difference that it makes to Jutland depends upon what the British do.

• Beatty might be wiped out before Even-Thomas arrives if the Grand Fleet was deployed as it was IOTL and the same signalling errors are made.
• However, the 3rd Battle Cruiser Squadron might not be sent to Scapa Flow for gunner practice if the Germans have an extra battle cruiser so Beatty might go into action with a 9:6 superiority instead of the 6:5 superiority that he had IOTL and the 6:6 parity that he would otherwise have ITTL.

Also, if Souchon gets back, what would he be doing? Historically he was made CO IV Battle Squadron but that was after coming back from the Ottomans about 1917, IIRC.

I haven't a clue.

 

[Kantai Kessen]

The difference that it makes to Jutland depends upon what the British do.

• Beatty might be wiped out before Even-Thomas arrives if the Grand Fleet was deployed as it was IOTL and the same signalling errors are made.
• However, the 3rd Battle Cruiser Squadron might not be sent to Scapa Flow for gunner practice if the Germans have an extra battle cruiser so Beatty might go into action with a 9:6 superiority instead of the 6:5 superiority that he had IOTL and the 6:6 parity that he would otherwise have ITTL.

I still think 3rd BCS would be sent up for gunnery training; they were in dire need of it, and Rosyth didn't have the facilities for large-calibre exercises. Besides, the British don't know until a couple of days before the event that the entire HSF is going to sortie into the Skagerrak. Up until then it would be business as usual. When it is found out it is too late and so I think the deployment would be as OTL.

Assuming, then, that Goeben joins in at Jutland, we have the potential following initial shooting line-up:
Lion vs Lützow
Princess Royal vs Derfflinger
Queen Mary vs Seydlitz
Tiger vs Moltke
New Zealand vs Goeben
Indefatigable vs Von der Tann

I can see this going very badly for the British if Indefatigable blows up as IOTL; given this is old Tann she is facing, I think that is likely. The Germans now have numerical superiority and, if they follow their RL fire doctrine, will probably rearrange as follows:

Lion vs Lützow, Derfflinger
Princess Royal vs Seydlitz
Queen Mary vs Moltke
Tiger vs Goeben
New Zealand vs Von der Tann

Goodbye Beatty, and then goodbye the rest?

 

[Cryhavoc101]

I still think 3rd BCS would be sent up for gunnery training; they were in dire need of it, and Rosyth didn't have the facilities for large-calibre exercises. Besides, the British don't know until a couple of days before the event that the entire HSF is going to sortie into the Skagerrak. Up until then it would be business as usual. When it is found out it is too late and so I think the deployment would be as OTL.

Assuming, then, that Goeben joins in at Jutland, we have the potential following initial shooting line-up:
Lion vs Lützow
Princess Royal vs Derfflinger
Queen Mary vs Seydlitz
Tiger vs Moltke
New Zealand vs Goeben
Indefatigable vs Von der Tann

I can see this going very badly for the British if Indefatigable blows up as IOTL; given this is old Tann she is facing, I think that is likely. The Germans now have numerical superiority and, if they follow their RL fire doctrine, will probably rearrange as follows:

Lion vs Lützow, Derfflinger
Princess Royal vs Seydlitz
Queen Mary vs Moltke
Tiger vs Goeben
New Zealand vs Von der Tann

Goodbye Beatty, and then goodbye the rest?

If matched like that then I suspect they would be less likely to run off without 5 BS in support in the first place

And if taking losses in the scenario you suggest they are not going to keep sailing in line to all get killed

 

[Kantai Kessen]

If matched like that then I suspect they would be less likely to run off without 5 BS in support in the first place

And if taking losses in the scenario you suggest they are not going to keep sailing in line to all get killed

Two words: David Beatty. IRL Beatty screwed up the deployment in the first place and failed to have 5th BS support his battlecruisers.

Now I am not a Beatty hater. Beatty was courageous, actually pretty smart and, when he wanted to be, efficient. But he was also aggressive to a fault, and, living in the tradition of Nelson, he will probably continue attacking until he dies on the Lion even as things start going south in the second scenario.

Also, if you try to fix the first factor, remember: Seymour.

 

[Cryhavoc101]

Two words: David Beatty. IRL Beatty screwed up the deployment in the first place and failed to have 5th BS support his battlecruisers.

Now I am not a Beatty hater. Beatty was courageous, actually pretty smart and, when he wanted to be, efficient. But he was also aggressive to a fault, and, living in the tradition of Nelson, he will probably continue attacking until he dies on the Lion even as things start going south in the second scenario.

Also, if you try to fix the first factor, remember: Seymour.

The British are quite capable of running when they had too

 

[I want to learn]

Jutland as we know it will almost certainly be butterflied away regardless of what happens but especially if Goeben makes it back to Germany. Sistership Moltke engaged in at least 4 actions between Goeben’s hypothetical time of arrival home and Jutland. I don’t even know if Dogger Bank would happen in a recognizable form because the disposition of Royal Navy battlecruisers will have been different for months by January 1915. Indefatigable presumably at that time since she wouldn’t have been guarding the Dardanelles if Goeben wasn’t holed up there. That makes Dogger Bank a 4 German battlecruiser vs 6 British battlecruiser action...unless Inflexible and Invincible are present, because if Goeben goes west (to meet her demise or otherwise) Troubridge doesn’t face court martial so Craddock might not feel as much pressure to do something crazy-brave...and even if he *does* he might have Defence present because IOTL she was retained to guard the Dardanelles too...so that butterflies Coronel and in turn the Falklands and it’s whole different WW1 at sea. Alt-Dogger Bank might be *nine* Royal Navy battlecruisers ganging up on just 4 German ones because all 6 the I class ships are there without the diversions caused by von Spee.

 

[Deleted member 2186]

Would Goeben survive a 1914 channel dash.

 

[I want to learn]

Would Goeben survive a 1914 channel dash.

I don’t think so, not unless it happens before the war. I’m pretty sure if there was anything the Royal Navy could handle by executing its existing war plans, it would be one (1) isolated raider in the English Channel. You might as well ask if the French battleship Jean Bart could pass through the Kiel Canal on the way home from St Petersburg after the declaration of war...hmm

By the way what if...nah.

 

[Cryhavoc101]

Jutland as we know it will almost certainly be butterflied away regardless of what happens but especially if Goeben makes it back to Germany. Sistership Moltke engaged in at least 4 actions between Goeben’s hypothetical time of arrival home and Jutland. I don’t even know if Dogger Bank would happen in a recognizable form because the disposition of Royal Navy battlecruisers will have been different for months by January 1915. Indefatigable presumably at that time since she wouldn’t have been guarding the Dardanelles if Goeben wasn’t holed up there. That makes Dogger Bank a 4 German battlecruiser vs 6 British battlecruiser action...unless Inflexible and Invincible are present, because if Goeben goes west (to meet her demise or otherwise) Troubridge doesn’t face court martial so Craddock might not feel as much pressure to do something crazy-brave...and even if he *does* he might have Defence present because IOTL she was retained to guard the Dardanelles too...so that butterflies Coronel and in turn the Falklands and it’s whole different WW1 at sea. Alt-Dogger Bank might be *nine* Royal Navy battlecruisers ganging up on just 4 German ones because all 6 the I class ships are there without the diversions caused by von Spee.

Defeats often teach more than victory's

In this example where Goeben is present does she take Blücher's place on the early raids?

And if so do the Germans still get the snot shot out of them at TTLs Dogger bank?

Not having to slow down for poor old Blücher might very well result in Beattys force 'not' intercepting them.

Blücher avoids being sunk (because she is not risked) but more importantly Seydlitz does not suffer the Magazine fire that nearly killed her which changed German ammunition handling practices into 1916 (for the better) and probably prevents the British battlecruiser squadrons taking away the incorrect lessons in that rate of fire was the problem (and not accuracy) and in order to increase it seriously compromise anti flash and ammunition handling practices.

Potential for plenty of unintended consequences!

 

[Peg Leg Pom]

I don't think Goeben has a hope in hell of reaching Germany, which is why she fled east rather than make the attempt. That said what happens when she's finally run down by British battlecruisers? She'll be sunk if she fights or forced to run to a neutral port and be interned. Now British I class Battlecruisers had a slight problem with blowing up when hit. Potentially so did German Battlecruisers before Dogger Bank. If one of the engaged BC's goes bang that's going to have an effect later on. Even better if there's a very near thing on one of the I's, like happened with the Germans at Dogger Bank, forcing a re examination of ammunition handling and storage. Something that would force Beatty to get his act together and prevent at least the losses at Jutland caused by flash.

 

[Bob in Pittsburgh]

I don’t think so, not unless it happens before the war. I’m pretty sure if there was anything the Royal Navy could handle by executing its existing war plans, it would be one (1) isolated raider in the English Channel

You would certainly think so. Then again the British had a plan to close the Channel in 1942 but the Channel Dash was a complete success. I think a lot would depend upon when and where the German ships were first spotted.

 

[dmg86]

But here the French coast is not controlled by Germany and the ship is not starting it's voyage from Brest.

 

[ArtosStark]

I was going through my old bookmarks and came across this discussion on the BC Forum which relates to this topic:

All the World's Battlecruisers-Capability of HSF BCs for longer cruises

One of the most repeated "truisms" of World War I popular naval history is that German capital ships, including the battlecruisers, were not designed

www.tapatalk.com

It details the difference in crewing arrangements between German and Allied navies during WW1. Basically the German Navy at the time accommodated a portion of even the peacetime compliment on shore during most deployments. They did not have adequate facilities on board to accommodate their entire wartime compliment for any length of time. Even with part if it deployed ashore in Wilhelmshaven the increase in wartime compliments led to significant drops in moral for the sailors over the course of the war. This would make using the Goeben as a commerce raider in the Atlantic even more problematic.

Specifically this post is probably worth copying here:

Goeben's peacetime deployment in the Med pretty much illustrates how impossible it would have been to deploy High Seas Fleet ships overseas for any extended period in wartime. Her only long stretch at sea was the 11 day transit from Kiel to Constantinople, and this included a stop at Wilhelmshaven and a three-day layover halfway across the Med. She spent most of her time anchored in the Turkish capital with much of her crew housed on shore, over 8 months. She also spent 2 months in dockyard hands at Pola. The rest of the time was spent making over 85 port visits, never staying at sea more than one or two nights in a row, and being able to resupply at will with coal and provisions waiting for her wherever she went, having been arranged for and purchased in advance by German agents in a dozen different countries. Not exactly something that could be done in wartime, where half the ports in the Med become hostile, and the other half were neutrals that would report your presence and kick you out after 24 hours, the only available friendly port being Pola, a trap easily bottled up by the Allies. That's why it was always the plan that she run to Constantinople when the war broke out- the only victory she could hope to achieve was a diplomatic one.

 

[Admiral Jellicoe]

If (and it is a big if) Goeben made it back home - perhaps by being recalled earlier I think it quite possible that she would not have been available until well into 1915 as the Germans would have had to give her a serious refit to sort out her dodgy engines. In many ways she probably wasn't good for much beyond what the Blucher could do and as such her presence may have been as much of a speed liability as the Blucher was. Just as possible for the Goeben to get left behind at Dogger if indeed her engines even got here there

Whilst I would not want to have been in an I class facing off against Goeben because of that desperately thin 6" belt I am not sure that the I's in the Med would have had the same propensity to blow up as those at Jutland as they would not have at that time introduced the battlecruiser fleet's slack ammunition handling as per Friedman et al's analysis. Also given what Artos Stark has observed above you might suggest that the longer Goeben is allowed to run, even if she can coal her crew will be in a worse state to fight