Go South, Young Man...

[Grimm Reaper]

Seward surely had better relations with and more trust from southern politicians than did Lincoln, who they recognized as considering even Stephen Douglas too extreme for his tastes.

There must also have been a certain grudge Douglas felt when asked to drop out in favor of a unity candidate for the Democrats, the feeling that Lincoln had outwitted him in 1858 and ruined his shot at the presidency. Possibly if he was less personally involved he might have agreed as Breckenridge and Bell and his own runnng mate did.



David, but the US navy effectively doubled in size, and much more in fire power in the last few years before the ACW, ironically due to the southern support for the fleet. Add in ships already under construction plus a continued expansion at half the rate 1852-1860 and you've got a US fleet with not 40 ships, 50% new, but @55 ships and 65% are new. Also over the next eight years at least one or two ironclads was bound to be built, if only as a test bed.

Practically everyone was trying ironclads in the 1860s and I can't see the British and French each with entire squadrons and the US not trying the concept out.

 

[robertp6165]

Well, I think the changes are likely to involve 1) the diplomatic consequences of having Lincoln as POTCS and Seward as POTUS and 2) the military consequences of both having Jefferson Davis as Confederate General and of Lincoln's differing manner of meddling with his generals.

In #1, I mean not just diplomacy vis-a-vis Europe but also the manner in which the war actually begins. Lincoln OTL as POTUS was quite careful to ensure the South was cast as the aggressor. If he takes the same tack as POTCS, the war starts with a different tone. That tone is likely to have the greatest repurcussions in the border states of Kentucky, Maryland, and Missouri. If Lincoln can win either of the former two to the Confederate cause, their war will go far better. Such impulses are likely to exacerbated by having Seward be POTUS, since Seward may be much more aggressive than Lincoln in regards to firing the first shots of the war and towards the political balancing act of the border states. The actual diplomatic effects will be very important, but they'll likely hinge on later events. My first guess is that Lincoln might not attempt to use cotton as leverage with Britain and France (though he might easily fall into that trap).

In #2, I'm much less certain. For one, having Jefferson Davis as a General (and not just a General, but one who knows he could have been President) drastically changes the calculus of assessing the first moves of the Confederate Army. Seward will also impact the North's first moves. I doubt the first efforts to invade the South are much more successful, but Seward might embrace tying abolitionism into the Union war effort much earlier (say as the result of some advance by Fremont). This is bound to have some effects.

Overall, though, the weight of men and industry possessed by the North will tell in a long enough conflict. But of course so too will the North's lack of a will to prosecute the conflict from the start. I could well see Seward precipitating a stronger reaction from the Copperheads; perhaps even an attempt to impeach him during the war, say after the 1862 midterm elections.

Interesting idea, nonetheless.

Good analysis. I am not sure about Seward being impeached, but otherwise, very much along the lines of my own thoughts.

 

[robertp6165]

(i feel jumped, maybe i was a bit hasty/rude, i took this as another CSA wins thread..but it isn't..sorry guys)

Back on topic- I think we have tho remember, that a Lincoln in the South isn't going to be the same type of Lincoln we know. It is a wholly different atmosphere. And if he is president, we will probably suffer from the same things that (many) OTL Southern Politicians did.

That's of course, very possible.

(But i will say, he will probabaly handle the poltical end far more astutly...And i think he will but heads (just as much or mroe then Jeff Davis, if that is possible) with Govners and whatnot?

Also possible. Of course, he could end up being more heavy handed. The OTL Lincoln quite often just had people arrested and thrown into Old Capitol Prison...such as most of the Maryland Legislature at one point...when they didn't tow the line. It might be entertaining to see that happen to people like Joe Brown or Zebulon Vance if they got to be too much of an impediment to the prosecution of the war.

 

[Zyzzyva]

Also possible. Of course, he could end up being more heavy handed. The OTL Lincoln quite often just had people arrested and thrown into Old Capitol Prison...such as most of the Maryland Legislature at one point...when they didn't tow the line. It might be entertaining to see that happen to people like Joe Brown or Zebulon Vance if they got to be too much of an impediment to the prosecution of the war.

"States' Rights? What's this states' rights crap? We declared independance so that I could be king."

- CSA President Abraham Lincoln, after ordering the arrest of NC Governor Zebulon Vance

 

[robertp6165]

While I often disagree with robertp6165's assessment of OTL Lincoln, Free Soilers and many other issues pertaining to the ACW and its lead-up, I strongly agree with him that the move to Mississippi would lead to a completely different Lincoln than we have had historically. If they move in 1816 as suggested Lincoln will be only 7 years old at the time. This is hardly an age in which his moral and political feelings can be said to already be set in stone.

Lincoln easily become a supporter of slavery, especially if he can internally rationalize it by saying that the slaves are better off in bondage where at least they are civilized and Christianized, though Lincoln was never a strong christian and was called an atheist by some contemporaries. As a slave master he would almost certainly be the type that was fair and even paid his slaves for their labor. I could see him using his own slaves offers to fight for the CSA as illustrative of the way the entire institution of slavery. Once in politics he would almost certainly support the Mexican-American War, the acquisition of Texas and if possible Cuba.

Good ideas.

With Lincoln as president Davis would almost certainly become the top general of the CSA. This would diminish Lee's role but as Davis would be just as aggressive and wasteful of the limited resources the outcome in the East would probably be similar.

Not sure at all about this, on either count. Davis may end up on the initial list of full Generals, along with Lee, but in all likelihood does not end up at the top (Davis will have been somewhat of a political rival within Mississippi, plus there will be officers coming over from the U.S. Army, such as Lee, Beauregard, the two Johnstons, and Samuel Cooper who will far outrank Jefferson Davis, who was only a Lt. Colonel of Volunteers in the Mexican War, and a civilian when the Civil War breaks out). Indeed, I doubt that Davis will even consider that he deserves such a high post. More likely, given his military background, he ends up initially as a Brigadier, like his fellow Mexican War hero and friend, Braxton Bragg.

As to whether he would have been more aggressive than Lee, that is doubtful too. Davis's own preferred strategy during the war was passive defense. He only switched to a more aggressive mode because of the influence of Lee and because he saw Joe Johnston losing territory and not making any apparent effort to defend it.

Lincoln was a better diplomat and he almost certain would have been able to elicit more aid from Europe, but it would have to include direct intervention to make a difference. The Trent Affair would almost certainly be butterflied away as it was a comedy of error's on the Union's part, but Seward was abrasive enough to still do something to piss off the Brits.

Indeed, if it had been left up to Seward, the response to the Trent Affair might well have been more aggressive. Seward, remember, had an idea about a foreign war being the way to reunite the country. IIRC he wanted to send a much more strongly worded reply back to the Brits but was overruled by Lincoln.

As commander in chief Seward would not be too bad, he had experience, connections and wasn't a moron, but he had a way of being a bit of a prick. If he kept Winfield Scott as overall commander longer and McClellan in a logistical role and off the field he does have a pool of talented generals at least as good as that possessed by the Confederates (Lyons, Kearny, Thomas, Sheridan, Sherman, Reynolds, Hancock and Buford to name but a few). He may raise a few more hackles in the Midwest, but despite what Herr Frage thinks, the Constitution does allow him to bend the rules a bit during insurrections so he would be tolerated by the majority for the duration of the war.

Also probably true.

So barring direct intervention by the Europeans, I think the war plays out with a Northern victory in about the same amount of time, maybe less if Scott stays on and a few of the Union's better generals survive a bit longer than in OTL. The after math may be a bit messier with the Radical Republicans having a larger say in the White House, but if the defeated Lincoln remains conciliatory he may be a great boon in healing the national wounds caused by the conflict. Conversely, as the Confederacy collapses Lincoln's dark bouts of depression may get the best of him and he might just eat a bullet come April 1865.

Regardless its a fascinating POD to think about.

Benjamin

Also some interesting thoughts. Thank you!

 

[robertp6165]

"States' Rights? What's this states' rights crap? We declared independance so that I could be king."

- CSA President Abraham Lincoln, after ordering the arrest of NC Governor Zebulon Vance

LOL. Yes, as I said, it could be entertaining.

 

[robertp6165]

But in the end, Lincoln will be a very different person. In fact, so many butterflies here might mean that he never gets his passion for learning and law that he did in OTL, particularly if he becomes a plantation owner. But, he might too; it could go either way.

Plantation owners, contrary to what some may believe, were generally well educated and well-read. I tend to think the desire to learn comes not from one's culture, but from one's level of intelligence. If you have a keen mind, as Lincoln did, you want to learn and grow. So the idea that Lincoln would lose his passion for learning just because he's living in a Southern milieu just doesn't hold up.

And the OP states that Lincoln studies and sets himself up as a lawyer BEFORE becoming a plantation owner. This is actually how a lot of Southern political figures got started...Alex Stephens and Robert Toombs, to state a couple of examples. These men both initially earned their wealth through the practice of law, then later went into plantation agriculture. Lincoln will be following this path.

 

[Herr Frage]

The problem with Lincoln acting with the same assertiveness as OTL is that many Southerners may come to fear they are fighting for a tyrant. Many Northerners felt that way about Linlon but he was protected partially because he was duly elected and the USA had at that [point never turned on a president.

Rebels may not be so inclined to pit up with him.

 

[robertp6165]

Looks like you've done it again old chap,This thread seems right for some healthy discussion and debate. An interesting scenario I might at, with Lincoln as a Southern Hero, but I was thinking with him and Lee in control over the CSA's Political and Military futures might allow them to support Clebourne plan of using Black Slaves in the military? But If you went that rought It would really just be a tweaking of ur Black and the Gray tl...

That could happen. I would think that, like Jefferson Davis, a slaveholding Lincoln would be a relatively enlightened slaveholder. Davis educated his slaves and allowed them to run their own affairs via a democratic system. I can see Lincoln doing much the same, if not moreso...especially if, as some posters suppose, he is a "reluctant slaveholder." And, he tended to be somewhat (well, a lot) more flexible in his thinking than Davis in OTL, so if that holds true in the ATL, he might well find a way to make it happen earlier than Davis did.

Hmm, the question is could Seward get his War with France and Spain, and would that be enough to unite the country?

I think he could get the war going if he wanted, especially when the Franco-Spanish intervention in Mexico takes place. But as to it reuniting the country, I think he was dreaming there. Won't happen.

 

[robertp6165]

The problem with Lincoln acting with the same assertiveness as OTL is that many Southerners may come to fear they are fighting for a tyrant. Many Northerners felt that way about Linlon but he was protected partially because he was duly elected and the USA had at that [point never turned on a president.

Rebels may not be so inclined to pit up with him.

I agree with that. It could end up very messy if he did. But nevertheless it's entertaining to think about.

 

[robertp6165]

Lincoln's mother came from Virginia so perhaps she was more tolerant of slavery. In OTL she died when Lincoln was nine years old (she drank some bad milk). In TTL she would not drink the bad milk (because the POD is 2 years before she had access to said milk) and would likely live longer and may have influenced Lincoln to be more accepting of slavery.

Another good idea.

 

[David S Poepoe]

David, but the US navy effectively doubled in size, and much more in fire power in the last few years before the ACW, ironically due to the southern support for the fleet. Add in ships already under construction plus a continued expansion at half the rate 1852-1860 and you've got a US fleet with not 40 ships, 50% new, but @55 ships and 65% are new. Also over the next eight years at least one or two ironclads was bound to be built, if only as a test bed.

Practically everyone was trying ironclads in the 1860s and I can't see the British and French each with entire squadrons and the US not trying the concept out.

I can not recall the ship numbers from two volume work The Old Steam Navy, but your numbers appear right when we exclude all ACW construction. I'm definitely not sure about the ironclads and strongly doubt that any would be built at least until the 1870s and the war scare with Spain. The US Navy of the time - and for too long after - was predominately that of a 'cruising' navy. Should a 'one off' ship be laid down it would be fairly similar to USS New Ironsides. Ericsson, along his monitor, will remain estranged from the Navy.

 

[AirshipArmada]

Two stray thoughts about this Lincoln:

In OTL Lincoln was a Captain of a militia during the Black Hawk Wars. In TTL he would probably not have this military exposure and may have been a bit more hands-off when POTCS during the Civil War.

In OTL Lincoln participated in one duel (using sabers, not guns). Dueling was more common in the South, so it is likely that he is involved in a couple more. This would help his popularity amongst the Southerners. And, heck, a dueling scar wouldn't make him any uglier.

 

[robertp6165]

Two stray thoughts about this Lincoln:

In OTL Lincoln was a Captain of a militia during the Black Hawk Wars. In TTL he would probably not have this military exposure and may have been a bit more hands-off when POTCS during the Civil War.

On the other hand, the ATL version of Lincoln has probably served in the Mexican War, which the OTL Lincoln didn't.

In OTL Lincoln participated in one duel (using sabers, not guns). Dueling was more common in the South, so it is likely that he is involved in a couple more. This would help his popularity amongst the Southerners. And, heck, a dueling scar wouldn't make him any uglier.

LOL That's the truth, and nothing but.

 

[Herr Frage]

I am getting a parallel of that famous picture of LIncoln in a the chair only with an eyepatych and accompanying scar, holdsing a sheathed saber and wearing a gray uniform.

Curse my raccoon like ability to draw!

 

[violadog]

Indeed, if it had been left up to Seward, the response to the Trent Affair might well have been more aggressive. Seward, remember, had an idea about a foreign war being the way to reunite the country. IIRC he wanted to send a much more strongly worded reply back to the Brits but was overruled by Lincoln.

Um, I seem to recall somewhere that it in OTL during the Trent Affair Lincoln and Seward were in agreement that the North could only handle "One war at a time", or possibly that it was Seward pushing Lincoln to avoid war with Britian. Therefore it seems like that Seward and his Secretary of State(CF Adams? So Illinoisan, or god help us Salmon Chase?) would work to prevent the crisis from boiling over into a war, anyway, just my two cents.

 

[robertp6165]

Um, I seem to recall somewhere that it in OTL during the Trent Affair Lincoln and Seward were in agreement that the North could only handle "One war at a time", or possibly that it was Seward pushing Lincoln to avoid war with Britian. Therefore it seems like that Seward and his Secretary of State(CF Adams? So Illinoisan, or god help us Salmon Chase?) would work to prevent the crisis from boiling over into a war, anyway, just my two cents.

You've actually got it backwards. It was Lincoln who restrained Seward. From here...

By the time U. S. Secretary of State William Seward received the note, France had declared its support for Britain in the matter, even if it meant war with the United States. In Canada, nationalistic leader John MacDonald mobilized militia across the southern frontier. Seward was willing to go to war over the matter, but Lincoln cautioned him "One war at time."

 

[violadog]

You've actually got it backwards. It was Lincoln who restrained Seward. From here...

Ah, thanks. I guess that's what you get for posting things at one in morning I wonder though if someone in Seward's cabinet won't have exerted the same influence on him that Lincoln did?

 

[Historico]

Was there any chance of this becoming a full fledged Timeline Robert...I know youve got a pretty thorough list on your hand but I do think you got a good launch point going.

 

[jmberry]

You know, to make things really interesting you could have the Davis family move to Ohio or Wisconsin instead of Mississippi. Thus, when war breaks out, we have a Jefferson Davis as the Union president and an Abraham Lincoln as the Confederate President .