1681. English court celebrates the first living birth of a child of a Habsburg Duchess of York, a girl, christened Lady Isabel of York, with her uncle Leopold I, Duke of Gloucester and Queen Catherine standing godparends. That birth did not affect Gloucester's position in succession line, however it caused other repercussions.
The relations with France were steadily cooling since 1677, when the Austrian match for Duke of York was finally decided on, though warming a bit with birth of Earl of Wigmore, thus making sure that the future King of Britain is going to have French blood in his veins/French wife. However, Marie Louise had no proselyting streak, despite her uncle's hopes, and both Duke of Cambridge and his son remained Anglicans.
The main consequences from this for Gloucester were related to his mother losing the custody over Abbe d'Orleans to her elder half-sister. However, the Duchesse de Nemours was childless, and in any case, barring open warfare between England and France (which Charles' seesaw policy was unlikely to result in), Gloucester was the closest male heir of Longueville estates after death of his mentally ill uncle. That meant that he was to become a sovereign prince of Neuchatel one day, even if his chances for crown of England were minimal.

Meanwhile, the eyes of all Europe were on Spain, where the Queen, Mary of Modena (who married to Spain according to her mother's wishes soon after English suit failed), managed to get pregnant. While the pregnancy resulted in miscarriage of "horribly deformed" fetus on the fifth month of pregnancy, it showed that Carlos II can potentially sire the child, and if he somehow manages to produce a healthy offspring, the best laid plans of French king would be doomed.

Meanwhile, Anne of York finally travels to Kaiserslautern as the bride of her second cousin; and another growth of Stuart family is expected in 1682, with Duchess of Gloucester getting pregnant with her second child. While Charles of Gloucester adored his firstborn, Lady Anne of Gloucester, he hoped for a little prince to secure his bloodline.

The financial situation of his family changed for the better, with Hudson Bay Company finally giving first solid profits. Gloucester's stepfather tried to introduce him to trade intricacies (along with other hobbies); however, while Charles was no dull person, he failed to completely share Rupert's hobbies. For once, he had some aversion to the naval affairs, easily getting seasick (unlike Cambridge, who took a lot after his admiral father), and he also disliked chemistry (smell of many reagents causing him to cough violently). However, the prince was rather skilled mathematician and military engineer, seeming to inherit also some Conde strategic gifts from his mother - which he, unfortunately, was to show sooner rather than later.
 
With no Modena - she was very influential on James and her son - would James even be in a position to be removed by Parliament? Would they work around him and thus be held to generate the first true Prime Minister?
Maybe. Or maybe his son/son-in-law would act as mediators (which is likely); also, foreign political situation will lack War of Augsburg League/War of Palatine Succession, though I think Louis would find a way to make mess in Germany (in Duchess of Cumberland there was a Cologne crisis).

Why not wed her to Tuscany similar to A&D? Patch things up between the Estes and the Medici and maybe get a couple heirs thrown into the bargain?
In A&D the situation is specific in that France had already married a legit princess to Spain (+ Marie Therese de France survived), so Maria Beatrice could be freely used for Italian matches. Here Mlle de Valois is too young for Spanish match, so Duchess Laura's actual desires to see Mary as a Spanish consort get French support.
 
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