Global Oil Market with Expansionist US?

The US is currently the leading oil producer in the world (and some day, I’m going to have to find the discussions I had on this very forum from a decade or more ago where people were tell me that was crazy).

Cribbing some #s from wikipedia:
1) USA 11.7mil bpd
7) Canada 3.6mil bpd
11) Venezuela 2.2mil bpd
12) Mexico 2.2mil bpd
(Caveat: it looks like oil production in Venezuela peaked near 3.5mil bpd)

So, lets assume an expansionist US directly controls the territory of those other three countries. Rather, lets just assume a country with similar property rights and economic system to the US does (private mineral rights being protected in the US is a large cause of its current oil boom). We’ll assume this happened within the 19th century, as well. So when oil became truly the world’s fuel, these borders are fairly set.

That gives you a country producing about 20-21mil bpd, about 1/4 of current world production and about 2/3 of all of OPEC’s production (slightly skewed as in this scenario, a major member of OPEC has been annexed). Thats also assuming not much higher production - reasonable in Canada, but Mexican production would likely be a bit higher and Venezuelan would almost definitely be far higher.

So, in a world where an alt-US controls this much of the world’s oil supply, what are the impacts on the world’s economy and geopolitics?
 
The price of oil will likely be lower and more stable since OPEC (if it even exists) will have significantly less market share. The US also has a lot less reason to involve themselves in the Middle East and unlimited interest in Latin America.
 
The price of oil will likely be lower and more stable since OPEC (if it even exists) will have significantly less market share. The US also has a lot less reason to involve themselves in the Middle East and unlimited interest in Latin America.

I’m inclined to think there would be no OPEC, or it would largely be toothless, and never imagined as anything but toothless. Similar to <insert trade association here> that has conferences and keeps players in a given industry in touch, but doesn’t really act as a cartel.

I think this US is likely to be even more geopolitically active than ours, but in a much ‘softer’ way, using the energy market as their big stick whenever possible.

I’d expect the Middle East would be a bit more ‘middle of the road’ in terms of wealth, which might make it more stable, apart from any destablization from interest from the super powers.

I wonder what changes might come in alt-world wars or alt-cold wars. Hard to say, given butterflies, and the POD doesn’t change too much in the grand scheme (its not like Canada was thinking of siding with the Soviets at any point).
 
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