Gladiator I & II - proposed timeline

There's apparently going to be a Gladiator II movie

https://www.thesun.co.uk/tvandshowbiz/7647115/gladiator-sequel-russell-crowe-revealed/

set 20-25 years after the original and centered around Commodus nephew Lucius. Now, the original movie made rather enormous changes compared to our timeline and I imagine the POD fallout from the events in the first movie would be even more monumental, which I have tried to explore. To this effect, and for reference, I will post first a historical timeline of the reigns of Marcus Aurelius and Commodus. Then the next post will discuss the PODs in Gladiator and those that can be inferred in its back story. Finally, I will post a proposed alternate timeline for the period 161-200 AD, when we could infer that the new movie will be set.
 
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Historical timeline

161 AD Marcus Aurelius and Lucius Verus succeed Antonius Pius as Emperors. War with Parthia

162 AD Chatti and Chauci invade Raetia

164 AD Lucilla and Lucius Verus married.

165 AD Chatti and Chauci defeated, the Antonine plague spreads from the legions fighting the Parthians

167 AD Marcomanni and confederates cross the Danube and inflict a crushing defeat on Romans in the Battle of Carnutum* in the opening of the 1st Marcomanni war. Aquileia is besieged and a roman relieving army defeated. Vandals and Sarmatians invade Dacia.

168 AD Marcus Aurelius and Lucius Verus lead an army against Aqueila, forcing the Marcomanni confederation to retreat.

169 AD Marcus Aurelius and Lucius Verus campaign against the Marcomanni. The plague claims co-Emperor Lucius Verus, husband of Lucilla before abating. Lucilla remarried to Pompeianus.

171 AD The Marcomanni and Quadi are expelled from Roman territory.

173 AD Marcomanni defeated.

174 AD Quadi defeated. End of the first Marcomanni war.

175 AD Marcus Aurelius campaigns against the Iazyges, but has to break it off after Avidius Cassius revolts, possibly incited by Faustina. He is murdered by one of his centurions.

176 AD The Emperor, with his empress in tow, leads an army east to restore order. Faustina dies in Cappadocia.

177 AD Commodus is proclaimed co-Emperor, the Marcomanni and Quadi revolt again sparking the 2nd Marcomanni war.

180 AD Marcus Aurelius dies from the plague while fighting the Marcomanni in Bohemia. The war is still unresolved but leaning towards Rome. This allows Commodus to strike a quick peace and return home.

182 AD Commodus foils plot by Lucilla. She is exiled to Capri to be dispatched at a later date, but her husband Tiberius Claudius Pompeianus is spared as he was not involved.

193 AD Commodus murdered after an increasingly bizarre reign involving thousands of appearances on the arena.

*The date of the Battle of Carnutum and subsequent siege of Aquileia is somewhat controversial, as it is conventionally given as 170 AD. But I agree with those who claim that it makes more sense that it happened before the Emperors march on Aquileia, which otherwise makes very little sense.
 
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Problems with the original Gladiator movie set to begin in 180 AD.

The opening text tells us this, and this was also the historical year of death of Marcus Aurelius. However there are some problems and inconsistencies, which it would be more fun to attribute to one or several independent PODs than to Hollywood disregard for historical veracity. To wit:

Marcus Aurelius has fought and expanded the Empire “for 25 years”. His first war (against Parthia) was the very year of his ascension in 161 AD, 29 years before 180 AD. 25 years could be a sweeping statement though.

The first Marcomanni war ended with the defeat of the Quadi in 174 AD but the Marcomanni were still undefeated in the 2nd Marcomanni war at the time of the Emperor’s death in 180 AD. In the movie the barbarians are defeated with the Emperor still alive. This would mean either that the movie opens in 174 AD OR that the Romans win an earlier victory in this timeline OR that the film opens AFTER the historical death of Marcus Auerelius.

Commodus is not co-emperor to Marcus Aurelius. He was made so in 177 AD. This also points toward either an earlier start (174 AD) or an alternate timeline in which this has not happened.

The decisive evidence for this being an alternate timeline, however is Lucillas son with former co-emperor Lucius Verus, who is alive. The historical Lucius Aurelius Verus died an infant, long before the reign of Commodus. Additionally, young Lucius is “nearly 8 years old”. He should have been born no later than 170 AD, since Lucius Verus, his father, historically died in 169 AD in the Antonine plague. At any time after 177 AD he would be older than 8 years. In 180 AD, any son of Lucius Verus would be no less than 10 years old.

In the movie Lucilla is an unmarried widow and ex-lover of Maximus. Maximus tells her he mourned her husband, and comments that she now has a son, implying she did not have one last time they met. Historically, she was betrothed to Lucius Verus at the age of 11-13 and married to him two years later in 164 AD. Widowed in 169 AD, she re-married Cladius Pompeianus in the same year and bore him a son in 170 AD, who does not appear in the movie. Historically Pompeianus commanded the Legions in the Marcomanni wars, whereas Maximus does in the move. Pompeianus lived to 193 AD. It would appear in the movie her marriage to Pompeianus never happened, again supporting the idea that her husband Lucius Verus lived for several years longer in this timeline.

The Antonine Plague (which as mentioned had claimed the life of co-Emperor Lucius Verus, husband of Lucilla in 169 AD) broke out again in 177 AD, was rampant by 180 AD and was widely blamed for killing the Emperor. In the movie, a plague is just springing up “in the Greek quarter” of Rome and is not mentioned otherwise. After Commodus murder of Marcus Aurelius, no attempt to attribute his death to the plague is made.

On the other hand, Marcus Aurelius’ wife Faustina does not appear and is not mentioned. She died in 176 AD. This is consistent with events taking place in 180 AD or later and not in 174 AD.

So is Commodus age. In 180 AD, he would have been 19 years old, whereas Joaquin Phoenix was around 25 years when he played the role. However, at any earlier likely date (like 174 AD) he is far too young, compared to the apparent age of Commodus in the movie (like 12-13 years).

Conclusion: Either

  1. the events of Gladiator take place earlier than 180 AD, the most likely year being 174 AD with the final defeat of the Quadi. This is 23 years after Marcus Aurelius becoming emperor, but again, “25 years” could have been a sweeping statement. This however directly contradicts the opening text which places the start of the action in 180 AD and also weighing heavily against this hypothesis are the fact that Commodus is a grown man and the absence of even mentions of Empress Faustina.

  2. There have been substantial divergencies from our timeline already at the start of the film. If so, clearly Lucius Verus lived longer than in OTL, perhaps because there was no Antonine plague, or it was milder than in OTL and the boy Lucius is a second son, born in 172-173 AD after the first Lucius died young. Because of suffering less or not at all from the plague which historically decimated the army, the Romans are able to defeat the Marcomanni and end the second Marcomanni war earlier than in OTL. Also, Marcus Aurelius has not seen fit to make his son co-emperor three years earlier, indicating that co-Emperor Lucius Verus was still alive at that time. Obviously, Marcus Aurelius has realized his son is "not a moral man" since (which historically he never did). A recent death for co-Emperor Lucius Verus also is consistent with the dialouge between Maximus and Lucilla, whereas a death 11 years prior is not.
The most obvious POD, which explains all divergences between movie timeline and historical timeline is no or much milder Antonine plague.
 
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Proposed timeline for Gladiator and aftermath up to the second film. Deviations from our timeline in fat.

165 AD Antonine plague breaks out but is much less deadly than our timeline, killing only one in ten of the afflicted.

165 AD A young Centurion of the army fighting in Parthia, Decimus Meridius Maximus*, catches the plague, but survives.

166-169 AD Maximus and Lucilla have an extramarital relationship

167-168 AD Germanic invasion of Pannonia, Illyricum and northern Italy, disaster of Carnutum and siege of Aquileia. Claudius Pompeianus dies in battle.

169 AD Lucius Aurelius Verus, 1st son of Lucius Verus and Lucilla is born, but dies very young.

173 AD Lucius Aurelius Verus, 2nd son of Lucius Verus and Lucilla is born.

174 AD 1st Marcomanni war ends.

175 AD Campaign against the Iazyges is aborted after the revolt of Avidius Cassius, although it is quickly put down with decisive support by Clodius Albinus.

176 AD Faustina dies in Cappadocia.

177 AD Second Marcomanni war begins. No second outbreak of the Antonine Plague.

178 AD co-Emperor Lucius Verus dies in battle against the Marcomanni. Having become wise to Commodus low character, the Emperor reverses his plan to name him co-emperor to replace Lucius Verus.

*Maximus real trinomen could not possibly have been "Maximus Decimus Meridius", because Decimus is clearly a praenomen (originally for a tenth son!) and makes no sense as the name of a gens, whereas "Meridius" could be the name of a fictional gens Meridia.
If his name had really been "Maximus Decimus Meridius", only his friends and superiors who wanted to emphasize their superiority would call him "Maximus". All others would call him "Meridius". So I call Hollywood bungling, and refer to our hero as Decimus Meridius Maximus, Decimus to his friends.

180 AD Events of movie Gladiator, major deviations from historical:

With no plague to kill him or his army Marcus Aurelius lives long enough to defeat the Marcomanni. He is then murdered by his son Commodus.

Commodus only demands token submission of the Marcomanni and withdraws from Bohemia to celebrate his triumph and organise 150 days of games.

Another outbreak of the Antonine plague begins in Rome’s Greek quarter.

Emperor Commodus dies in his first appearance in the arena, killed by the gladiator Maximus. Maximus tasks the senate with “restoring the Republic”*.

*this has to be understood as "restoring the primacy of the Senate" as in the mind of every Roman, Rome remained a Republic until the day Odoacer proclaimed himself King of Italy in 476 AD.

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Aftermath of the movie

180-181 AD Senator Gracchus tries to reassert the power of the Senate over the Republic and abolish the Principate, but despite support from the commander of the Rhine Legions Clodius Albinus, there is little enthusiasm for the idea in the army. In the end, Gracchus and Lucilla decide to proclaim young Lucius, son of Emperor Lucius Verus and grandson of Marcus Auerelius as new Emperor with Lucilla as regent until his adulthood. With the Praetorian prefect Quintus and the Rhine legions behind them, the senate agrees to appoint Lucius emperor, but the interregnum and failed attempt at Republican restoration fatally weakens Lucius’s claim.

181 AD Publius Helvius Pertinax is proclaimed Emperor by the Danube Legions and marches on Rome. So does Clodius Albinus with the Rhine Legions, allegedly to support the claim of young Lucius Verus. In fact, Albinus intends to become the power behind the throne and displace Lucilla and Grachhus.

182 AD Civil war. The armies of Albinus and Pertinax battle each other in northen Italy. Albinus wins the battle of Placentia, killing Pertinax. With the legions destroying each other in Italy, barbarians invade Gaul, Raetia, Pannonia, Dacia and Moesia in massive numbers. The Parthians are only waiting for Roman troops to be withdrawn to Europe to attack as well.

In Rome, his troops proclaim Albinus co-emperor with young Lucius II. The senate acquiesce given the critical military situation. Albinus divorces his wife and marries Lucilla to reinforce his claim.

182-188 AD Albinus campaigns with the legions in Gaul, while his subordinate Septimus Severus leads the armies in the Balkans and Moesia. In the end the barbarians are expelled from Roman territory, although not without extensive devastation.

188-191 AD Albinus and Severus campaign extensively beyond the Rhine and Danube in order to press home the roman advantage and gain a long respite from the Barbarian threat for the weakened Empire. No permanent conquests are made.

191 AD Lucius Verus II reaches adulthood at the age of 18. Despite his young age, he already shows some backbone, but with Albinus in firm control of the army and with markedly good relations with the senate, which he treats with respect in the best traditions of the principate, Verus has little leverage.

195 AD Septimus Severus arranges the murder of Albinus and Lucilla and proclaims himself Emperor. Lucius escapes and goes into hiding.

200 AD Lucius, who has joined the army under false name, has risen to centurion when some event leads him to become a gladiator in the arena.
 
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This looks like fun. Are you planning to do any more, or just set out where the setup for the sequel might go? Your TL seems totally reasonable to me, though you might have Senator Gracchus get on a little bit better - not that I think he would, I think your interpretation fairly realistic, but it might make a better movie if Lucius had had a "golden age" before the civil war.
 
This looks like fun. Are you planning to do any more, or just set out where the setup for the sequel might go? Your TL seems totally reasonable to me, though you might have Senator Gracchus get on a little bit better - not that I think he would, I think your interpretation fairly realistic, but it might make a better movie if Lucius had had a "golden age" before the civil war.

Nah, merely creating some reasonable and mildly interesting setup for the second movie. Regarding Lucius ”Golden Age”, the Republican restoration is always going to fail, and cause civil war sooner rather than later. Also, it’s the only way Lucius is going to be emperor, as a second best option after the failure of Marcus Aurelius’ unrealistic plan to ”restore the Republic”.

I guess I could have made Albinus more sympathetic, kind of an overly harsh but fundamentaly decent father figure to Lucius, whom he sees as his successor. That would give us our golden age.
 
Nah, merely creating some reasonable and mildly interesting setup for the second movie. Regarding Lucius ”Golden Age”, the Republican restoration is always going to fail, and cause civil war sooner rather than later. Also, it’s the only way Lucius is going to be emperor, as a second best option after the failure of Marcus Aurelius’ unrealistic plan to ”restore the Republic”.

I guess I could have made Albinus more sympathetic, kind of an overly harsh but fundamentaly decent father figure to Lucius, whom he sees as his successor. That would give us our golden age.
I'm curious why was the Republican restoration always going to fail?
 
I'm curious why was the Republican restoration always going to fail?

Because the institution of Emperor was at this time seen as entirely legitimate and beneficial. Rome had enjoyed nearly a century of good emperors. The view would probably have been that an Emperor was needed to make the Republic work and to keep the army in check. Of really bad Emperors, there had been only Nero and Caligula up until then, and they had been a good while back. But most importantly, I doubt the professional army would have accepted to be commanded by the senate. It would immediately have raised any number of candidates to fill the vacuum.
 
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