Give me all the information and statistics I need to prove that Japan cannot win WWII

Ilúphatar

Ilúphatar

Before I begin, I must make it absolutely clear that I am very, very aware that a stupidly large number of 'How can Japan win' threads have been made in the past. However, this one is not asking whether there is any way in which Japan can defeat the Allies of WWII. Instead, it seeks to compile all necessary facts and data to conclusively prove that Japan cannot defeat the Allied Powers, 'period' (as I believe the American expression is).

To put it bluntly, I have a friend who is under the mistaken impression that a Japanese victory at Midway would lead to Japan defeating the United States. There are several (serious) problems with this theory, but his reasoning is something like: 'If Japan takes Midway, they can then take Hawaii, which means that they can blockade Panama with carriers and destroy the American industrial base on the West Coast'.

Yes, I realise how wrong he is.

Therefore, I humbly request all available statistics, figures, troops deployment/strength records, military-industrial capacity data, geographic factors and so on; that I might decisively prove my mistaken friend wrong without room for argument.

Direct relevance to the described scenario is desirable but not required of any input, given that he believes that the Allies as a collective would be unable to defeat Japan had they taken Midway.

Putting the source in there would be helpful, if possible.

Thanks in advance!
 

Moosemac

Iluvatar said:
Before I begin, I must make it absolutely clear that I am very, very aware that a stupidly large number of 'How can Japan win' threads have been made in the past. However, this one is not asking whether there is any way in which Japan can defeat the Allies of WWII. Instead, it seeks to compile all necessary facts and data to conclusively prove that Japan cannot defeat the Allied Powers, 'period' (as I believe the American expression is).

To put it bluntly, I have a friend who is under the mistaken impression that a Japanese victory at Midway would lead to Japan defeating the United States. There are several (serious) problems with this theory, but his reasoning is something like: 'If Japan takes Midway, they can then take Hawaii, which means that they can blockade Panama with carriers and destroy the American industrial base on the West Coast'.

Yes, I realise how wrong he is.

Therefore, I humbly request all available statistics, figures, troops deployment/strength records, military-industrial capacity data, geographic factors and so on; that I might decisively prove my mistaken friend wrong without room for argument.

Direct relevance to the described scenario is desirable but not required of any input, given that he believes that the Allies as a collective would be unable to defeat Japan had they taken Midway.

Putting the source in there would be helpful, if possible.

Thanks in advance!
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Could Japan have "won", if they decided to invade the USSR instead of the US?
 

WeissRaben

Moosemac said:
Is there anything you could change before that happens that would let the Japanese win that? Stalin killing the wrong commander?
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Stalin killing Zhukov helps for Khalkhin Gol itself, but the army wasn't really the best branch of the Japanese military, and it was mostly bogged down in China anyway.
 
Ilúphatar

Ilúphatar

Just going to stay, while I do find discussions of a Second Russo-Japanese War in 1939 fascinating, this thread is aimed towards collating data that proves Japan cannot win rather than discussing potential scenarios without direct reference to statistics. Sorry to be a bore.
 

naraic

Iluvatar said:
Just going to stay, while I do find discussions of a Second Russo-Japanese War in 1939 fascinating, this thread is aimed towards collating data that proves Japan cannot win rather than discussing potential scenarios without direct reference to statistics. Sorry to be a bore.
Click to expand...
Distance.

Japan can't take Hawaii

Let's say Japan takes Midway they are what 1300 miles from Hawaii.Japan could in theory hit Hawaii from Midway with long range planes. But America can put more planes on the Hawaian islands that Japan can on Midway. Japan still doesnt have a force that can hit Hawaii hard. Yes planes operating at the edge of their range can reach Hawaii from Midway but how many.

There's only so much room on Midway. Let's say Japan manage to operate 200 planes on Midway capable of hitting Hawaii (and that's a big number for the size of the island) and the entire of Kido Butai remains in the area hitting Hawaii with everything they have.

I would bet on America being able to put 10 times the planes on Hawaii as Japan could put in the area between Midway based planes and Kido Butai.

Link above shows American aircraft production compared to Japanese. America can keep feeding planes into a battle where they will have 10 on 1 advanatage and Japan will just kill off their pilots trying to maintain an air war from Kido Butai and Midway.

Therefore Japan can't project power against Hawaii, and therefore can't take it.

Even if they could they take Hawaii they couldn't take the West coach but that's a different story.
 

David Floyd

They don't have the available ground forces to take Hawaii, and even if they did, they wouldn't have enough transports to get them there all at once and supply them.
 

TRH

David Floyd said:
They don't have the available ground forces to take Hawaii, and even if they did, they wouldn't have enough transports to get them there all at once and supply them.
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It's 1300 miles from Midway to Hawaii. Even if the men and hardware were available, I imagine the distance would make it one of the hardest landings in history.
 

Griffon

Iluvatar said:
Before I begin, I must make it absolutely clear that I am very, very aware that a stupidly large number of 'How can Japan win' threads have been made in the past. However, this one is not asking whether there is any way in which Japan can defeat the Allies of WWII. Instead, it seeks to compile all necessary facts and data to conclusively prove that Japan cannot defeat the Allied Powers, 'period' (as I believe the American expression is).

To put it bluntly, I have a friend who is under the mistaken impression that a Japanese victory at Midway would lead to Japan defeating the United States. There are several (serious) problems with this theory, but his reasoning is something like: 'If Japan takes Midway, they can then take Hawaii, which means that they can blockade Panama with carriers and destroy the American industrial base on the West Coast'.

Yes, I realise how wrong he is.

Therefore, I humbly request all available statistics, figures, troops deployment/strength records, military-industrial capacity data, geographic factors and so on; that I might decisively prove my mistaken friend wrong without room for argument.

Direct relevance to the described scenario is desirable but not required of any input, given that he believes that the Allies as a collective would be unable to defeat Japan had they taken Midway.

Putting the source in there would be helpful, if possible.

Thanks in advance!
Click to expand...

It always depends, in part, on the definition of 'win.' Your friend's view that they can take HI, then project power over the Panama Canal that the US can't swat away, and that this destroys the US industrial base in the West, is all lunacy. Even the wackiest Japanese leaders didn't really think they could do any of that.

A few factors:
Distance: As others have noted, distance prevents them from projecting enough air, sea, and ground power to Hawaii to take it. Even if they somehow did, they'd be met by overwhelming US air and sea forces if they tried to approach the US coast. If they tried to block the Panama Canal, the US could cut off their ships (or make it a LONG sail) and could outgun them with land-based aircraft in Panama and elsewhere.

Production/Manpower/Supply: Even if they could somehow take HI, that's not going to mean they can suddenly produce vast new fleets of ships and planes, supply them with trained men, and get them to where they need them. The scenario your friend envision would entail heavy Japanese losses a long, long way from home. Even if they won some of those engagements, they'd be heavily wounded with no ability to resupply before they're hit repeatedly by new US forces. They'd soon have carriers with skeleton crews, virtually no aircraft, virtually no ammo, and no fuel floating around South and East of Hawaii.
 

Theoretical_TJ

You need a hellish Civil War in the USA to even make Hawaii a sustainable option and you need Japan to not be bogged down in China.

To get to Man in the High Castle levels of success, you need at least one pre-1900 POD
 

TRH

Lost Freeway said:
I thought "weaboo" only referred to anime fans.:p
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I think it's generally become a criticism of "Japan is Just Better" arguments. Seems like an intermediate step to deriving "Wehraboo". So, this, basically:

upload_2017-5-11_19-48-0.jpeg


I wanted to paste in one of the Gif versions, but the board has suddenly become very uncooperative to that.
 
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