Giuliani wins the 2008 GOP nomination

Let's assume that, instead of following his foolish "win the big states" strategy, Giuliani focuses on Iowa and New Hampshire instead, and goes on to win the Republican nomination. No scandals tarnish his image during the Republican primary. The Democratic primary is largely unaffected - Obama still wins after a long, drawn-out fight against Hillary. How would this affect the Presidential race? Who would have been Giuliani's most likely running mate? Would the social conservatives have defected to a third party, as they threatened to do?
 
Here's the problem: Giuliani did focus on New Hampshire originally. He actually did spend several million dollars there. The problem was, the more he campaigned, the more his polls dropped. The more voters saw of him, the less they liked him. I think the same would have happened in the General Election had he made it that far.

He would have been doing far worse than McCain is doing FWIW.
 
He seems to target the same crowd as McCain, moderater Republicans with terror fear, so the removal of McCain is the key. Have McCain get into problem over McCain-Feingold would do, I see no reason why moderate republicans would oppose free speach.
 
As a partisan Democrat, I was cheering on Giullani. I saw him as the weakest Republican candidate. I think his views on abortion would have inspired a credible third party social conservative candidate, maybe Huckabee. His arrogance would have been another problem. I read an article in the New York Times, that described how he traveled through New Hampshire by motorcade and his audience were told to stay in their seats, so that he could get to his next speech. Certainly a man who lets the media tell his wife the marriage is over is arrogant. I remember in the memo that got leaked to the press, his aides were worried that if the Yankees got to the World Series, the boss would want to leave the campaign trail and go to the games. I can see the Obama ad now. Narrator: Who will be there to answer the 7:30 PM phone call. Then tag line I am sorry President Giullani can´t come to the phone he is at the game. Of course there is the complication of his three wives extra marital affairs and alienated children. My dream G.O.P. ticket Giullani Palin!
 
Giuliani would had a very difficult time in Iowa because he strikes little rapport with farmers, students and factory workers who do not share the big city interests. After all, Des Moines is not viewed as a terrorist target.

The early voting states (IA, NH, SC) act to weed out the dark horses, or in the case of Iowa, breathe an extra month of life into long shot candidates like Mike Huckabee.

South Carolina is likewise not Giuliani territory.
 
As a caucus, Iowa attracts the core activists, As a social liberal Giulliani turns off most of this group. That is why he, for a time, thought about starting in New Hampshire, His arrogance did himm in there.
 
The problem with this is that it is pure ASB. Gulliani would never get the Republican nomination. Never ever ever. He's too associated with New York/the East Coast, too 'elite'-seeming, too socially liberal, and he has a Nelson Rockefeller-style record in his personal life. He is absolutely anathema to the Republican base in almost every sense, and he's not hugely convincing even with independent voters.

Combine that with the fact that the first primary states are socially conservative, (to various degrees) rural or sparsely populated, and the simple fact that they are primaries (higher 'base' turnout) and Gulliani is simply never going to get any traction under any circumstances. Even if you removed McCain from history, you would probably simply end up with Huckabee (or a moderate who runs in the place of McCain - Romney? Tom Ridge?) as the nominee.

If we do ASB him into the top slot, then I can't see how he would be anything other than a weaker candidate than McCain. The base stays at home, Obama gets his vote out and takes enough independents/undecideds to win comfortably.

The simple fact is, Gulliani is about fifty years too late as a Republican Presidential candidate.
 
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Anaxagoras

Banned
I think his views on abortion would have inspired a credible third party social conservative candidate, maybe Huckabee.

I think a very small number of social conservatives might have gone the third party route and supported the Constitution Party or something. But I wouldn't think more than 5% would do this. Of the rest, maybe a third would hold their nose and vote for Rudy, while the rest would simply stay home on Election Day.
 
The problem with this is that it is pure ASB.

This may be hyperbole, but clearly a Rudy candidacy (or presidency) is fully consistent with the basic laws of nature.

I agree with others, however, that a Giuliani victory in the Republican primary process is very unlikely (but then who would have imagined that brood of right-wing vipers choosing McCain either). If he did become the Republican candidate, it would almost ensure a Democratic victory in the general election as many right-wingers would defect or not vote - even if he chose the Alaska beauty queen as his VP. Giuliani was the classic one-issue candidate ("Vote for me because I was Mayor of New York when the terrorists attacked, and I really, really want to kill all terrorists"). Other than that, he comes across to lots of basic rural red state republicans (and "reagan democrats") as an elitist New York City boy who is both incredibly offensive in his personal life and way too liberal on social/religious issues. Considering the makeup of Republican Party activists (those who vote in primaries and caucus), it is had to understand why anyone considered him the odds-on favorite before than campaign began.
 
Dear Anaxagora:

In a closely divided country such as the early 21st century U.S. the defection of 5% of a party,s core vote will sink any candidate. Come to think of it how often could a candidate survive that?

P.S. I think in addition to the third party votersm you would have a big chunk of the Social Conservatives staying home.
 

Jasen777

Donor
As others have pointed out, the nomination process was always going to be an uphill battle for Giuliani. He did his focus on the big states strategy because it was his only shot - he wasn't going to win Iowa or New Hampshire or South Carolina anyway.
 
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