Gingrich Defeated in 1990

Apparently Gingrich's reelection in 1990, in the aftermath of his upsetting the tax/spending cut compromise that year was relatively close, or at least considerably closer than his previous efforts had been. Historically, Gingrich was reelected, and four years later was a major force behind the Republican Party's takeover of the House, becoming Speaker. I know, we all know who Newt Gingrich is. Perhaps I'm exaggerating how close Gingrich's victory in 1990 actually was, but for the sake of argument, let's say Newt loses. What happens four years later, presuming Bush Sr. still loses to Bill Clinton in 1992? Without Newt Gingrich, do the Republicans still take control of the House? If so, who becomes Speaker in Newt's absence? Generally, what effect does Newt's removal from Congress in 1990 have on American politics in the years that follow?
 
I think without the Contract with America Republicans don't take the house. t There were a number of close races and the attention that Gingerich brought the Repulican cause was crucial. s So who would be the Republican front runner now?
 
I think without the Contract with America Republicans don't take the house. t There were a number of close races and the attention that Gingerich brought the Repulican cause was crucial. s So who would be the Republican front runner now?

How about Bob Walker (R-PA)? He was the deputy to Gingrich when the latter was House Minority Whip. Edward Madigan (R-IL) may also have decided to stay on in Congress if Gingrich lost his seat, rather than taking the position of Secretary of Agriculture. He may survive to lead the Republican Party into the 1994 elections, but I doubt it, given his health situation. So, Gingrich's replacements could be:

Edward Madigan (1990-1994)
Bob Walker (1994-?)
 
I think without the Contract with America Republicans don't take the house. t There were a number of close races and the attention that Gingerich brought the Repulican cause was crucial. s So who would be the Republican front runner now?

If the Republican's don't take the House, then Bill Clinton's initial period of unpopularity may last a little longer. After all, here Clinton doesn't have Newt Gingrich's Congress to contrast himself with. He isn't, for example, going to come out the victor in a government shutdown, for the very simple reason that there isn't going to be a shutdown. Clinton wasn't very popular in the period between 1993-1994. So, depending on how Clinton's conflict with the post 1994 congress helped his political recovery afterwards, this may have implications in 1996. Clinton benefits from a good economy, but if the view of Clinton from the first couple of years continues, Dole may well do better than he historically did, albeit he probably doesn't win given the economy.
 
The GOP would still have taken the House. Polling from the time indicated that the vast majority of Americans hadn't even heard of the Contract for America.

The thing is, 1993-1995 was the first period where Democrats had unified control since most conservative rural voters in the South (and Midwest) had been voting GOP for president. So beyond the normal midterm losses, there was a big swing against the party.
 
1994 was the realignment of the South at the Congressional level and the capturing of Ross Perot voters into the GOP. Assuming Clinton remains non-populist once in office there's no way to stave off GOP control of the House.

However a populist Clinton (which he was pre-office) could possibly grab enough Perot voters to keep control of the House. That would of course require him to tell the magical pixie fairies of the bond market and the DLC to drop dead. Although sensible policy in electoral terms at the least, it's unlikely Clinton would do so.

Further consequences of a Republican House run by someone other than bomb-thrower Gingrich (IIRC it was Dole who said there were two filing cabinets in Gingrich's office: crazy ideas & good ideas, with the crazy one ten times larger and Gingrich unable to distinguish between the two) are probably a much weaker Clinton White House.

The question then becomes: does Dole beat Clinton in '96? Does someone beat Dole and then Clinton to become the new Republican President?

There were a few strong candidates that didn't run after all (and not just Powell).
 
Further consequences of a Republican House run by someone other than bomb-thrower Gingrich (IIRC it was Dole who said there were two filing cabinets in Gingrich's office: crazy ideas & good ideas, with the crazy one ten times larger and Gingrich unable to distinguish between the two) are probably a much weaker Clinton White House.

The question then becomes: does Dole beat Clinton in '96? Does someone beat Dole and then Clinton to become the new Republican President?

There were a few strong candidates that didn't run after all (and not just Powell).

That's one of the central questions here. How much does Gingrich's defeat impact Bill Clinton's popularity, and to what extent can Clinton simply coast to reelection on the good economy?
 
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