Trying to get additional Allied naval forces into the Med via Suez is not easy.
At the time of construction it was only 8 m deep. Was that a limitation on the size of war ships going through? PoW draught: 10,5 m.
How deep was it in 1939/40?
There are numerous differences between Crete and Malta:
IIRC not a single German arrived on Crete by sea during the battle. And many drowned on the way.
Indeed, meaning that the statement "First, how do you explain the inability of the RN to defend Crete IOTL?" is self-evidently wrong. As I recall there were two invasion convoys - one was intercepted and the other forced to return to Greece. The RN did successfully defend Crete from amphibious attack, and then performed evacuations, both in the face of Axis air supremacy. In fact, I think some of the naval losses sustained occurred after the ships had run out of AA ammunition - certainly the reports indicate that ships survived long enough to use almost all of their ammunition.
Malta is certainly capturable in 1940-early 1941, but not, I feel, in a timeline that closely resembles OTL - with an unprepared Italy unwilling to be seen having to ask for German assistance, with the limited effectiveness of Italian level bombers and with an Italian fleet damaged at Taranto and thoroughly outclassed at night. Changing that requires changing Italy in the 1930s, and that may have all sorts of butterflies, such as those related to Austria, the Stresa Front and Italy's foreign relations.
ground forces will land before the RN gets in place (and will land with heavy weapons including artillery and tanks)
In 1940? Against Malta? Where? How?
- no specialized landing crafts,
- few if any suitable areas for beaching, anyway,
- ports to be demolished as the defenders' last-resort defense.
There are numerous differences between Crete and Malta:
Dude, Denmark borders with Germany, a land border.
As to Norway, the Royal Navy was pretty efficient in defending Narvik up there. The Germans were going to lose that battle, being pushed into internment in Sweden. The reason why the thing didn't end that way, was the Battle of France.
The opposite would show a better understanding:
they wanted to carry out landing operations when they could. When they could not, they wanted not.
Why not? The Regia Aeronautica's standard tactics is bombing from altitude by level bombers - largely unsuccessful.
The Germans may deploy Stukas to Sicily. But these will be B Stukas, not the Ds that sank british warships in 1941. Compare the two versions and you'll see that they are really two different aircraft, not to mention the lack of anti-naval training in 1940.
The Royal Navy only has to carry out a couple of fleet raids to wreck the attempt on Malta. People seem to assume that once there are a handful of paratroopers there, the battle is over and the Axis won't need to send in supplies in the old-fashioned way.
Germans managed to land units in Denmark and Norway. Same methods.
This is also an ATL with a POD, so they might have different equipment. Basic landing craft are not that hard to manufacture. Nothing revolutionary about he design that goes back to WW1. Small draft, short range, can load with cargo nets from mothership.
Also, a lot of the men arrive by air.
You seem not to understand BB armor and what a mission kill is.
Now airplanes cause huge issues. If we start getting 2000 pound or larger AP hits, we just start losing battleships.
So all that happens in you scenario is the UK is trading cruisers and capital ships for a few planes, bombs, and fuel. A huge German win. So this is why it is pretty clear that when the attack on Malta begins, the RN will be the better part of a week away, and the Germans can get ashore.
In 1940? Against Malta? Where? How?
- no specialized landing crafts,
- few if any suitable areas for beaching, anyway,
- ports to be demolished as the defenders' last-resort defense.
Germans managed to land units in Denmark and Norway. Same methods. This is also an ATL with a POD, so they might have different equipment. Basic landing craft are not that hard to manufacture. Nothing revolutionary about he design that goes back to WW1. Small draft, short range, can load with cargo nets from mothership. Also, a lot of the men arrive by air.
No. The Danes were not opposing the landings. The Norwegians did, and you might take note they sunk a cruiser, but were unprepared to fight. Nothing like that on Malta.
Then you'd need to elaborate on that. The Italians build them and the British don't notice? The Germans build them, the British don't notice, and the Germans ship them to the med somehow? Also, what mothership? Those need to be built or adapted, too.
Yes, that's another problem. On Crete they had several airfields distant from each other, and plenty of open, suitable countryside that the British and Greeks couldn't garrison to drop paratroops. On Malta there's a shortage of both (the airfields are, basically, two) and a thicker concentration of men. The German paratroopers need time unopposed to gather their guns from their cannisters.
As to the lots of men arriving by air, you might specify how many. You are aware that the 7. Fliegerdivision and the 22. Luftlande are understrength at this time, after the heavy losses in Holland? 1,200 of their men are POWs in Britain, not to mention KIAs and WIAs.
The state of Malta's defences was poor, verging on non-existent. This stemmed from a pre-war conclusion that the island was indefensible and should not be defended.[11] The Italian and British surface fleets were evenly matched in the region, but the Italians had a significant numerical advantage in submarines and aircraft. The British, in particular the Admiralty, suffered from having to cover the Suez Canal, with the Mediterranean Fleet under Admiral Andrew Cunningham and Gibraltar with Force H under Vice-Admiral James Somerville.[11] In October 1939, the Mediterranean Fleet was moved east to Egypt, practically stripping the island of its naval protection. Just the monitor Terror and a few British submarines were left to defend the island from the sea. When the Maltese government questioned the British rationale, they were told that the island could be defended just as adequately from Alexandria as from Malta's Grand Harbour. This was not true, and the Maltese suspected Britain's commitment to defending the island was not as strong as it could have been.[15]
Only six obsolete Gloster Sea Gladiator biplanes were stationed on the island, with another six in crates, when on 10 June 1940, Mussolini declared war on the United Kingdom and France.[11]
In the afternoon, another 38 bombers escorted by 12 fighters raided the capital. The raids were designed to affect the morale of the population rather than inflict damage to dockyards and installations. A total of eight raids were flown on that first day. The bombing did not cause much damage and most of the casualties suffered were civilian. No interception of the raiders was made because there was no RAF force ready to meet them.[24] No RAF airfield on Malta was operational at that time. One at Luqa, was near to completion.[5]
By the start of July, the Gladiators had been reinforced by Hawker Hurricanes and the defences organised into No. 261 Squadron RAF in August. Twelve were delivered by HMS Argus in August, the first of several batches ferried to the island by the carrier. A further attempt to fly 12 Hurricanes into Malta on 17 November, led by a FAA Blackburn Skua, (Operation White) ended in disaster with the loss of eight Hurricanes; they took off too far west of the island and ran out of fuel, and several pilots were lost.[27] A further two Hurricanes crashed, with one of the pilots rescued by a Short Sunderland flying boat.[28] The arrival of more fighters was welcome. After just eight weeks, the original force of Hurricane units were grounded owing to a lack of spare parts.[29]
snip
The air war began in Malta with token strength of six antiquated Gladiator fighters. A force of Hurricane’s was flown in and this constituted No.412 Flight. In late-1940 RAF Wellingtons (five squadrons) were based
on the island and were the only offensive capability Malta possessed. In January 1941, however, all these were destroyed on the ground in a series of intense air attacks. Meantime, Hurricane fighters were constantly ferried to the island to replace losses and to increase the number fighters on Malta. In all, 361 Hurricanes were ferried towards Malta since August 1940 of which 303 reached the island, and of which 150 went on to North Africa. May 1941 brought the total force of Hurricanes to 50 aircraft.
Malta defences at outbreak of war: 34 heavy and 8 light AA guns (instead of approved scale of 112 and 60). One radar set, and four fighters, obsolete Gladiators (soon only 3).
British 1st Submarine Flotilla of 12 boats divided between Malta and Alexandria loses 3 Malta-based subs in first week.
September 1940
HMS Valiant, (battleship), Coventry and Calcutta (anti-aircraft cruisers) accompanying three merchantmen arrive at Grand Harbour with army and air force personnel and stores, 8 x 3.7 inch anti-aircraft guns, predictors, height finders, replacement anti-aircraft gun barrels, 100 Bren light machine guns and 10,000 rounds of Bofors ammunition. 40,000 tonnes supplies in total.
1. Stukas of the B variant (available in 1940) can't carry 2000-pound bombs. Besides, 1100-lb AP bombs are in short supply for them. Besides, the number of pilots seriously trained for ship-hunting is small. The aircraft that scored good hits with that kind of payload in early 1941 is the Ju 87D. So you have Bs which can hit, probably, a battleship, but not with the kind of payload you want.
2. The Regia Aeronautica bombs from altitude with level bombers. They also usually drop high numbers of small bombs. The SM 79, for instance, again couldn't carry any single bomb heavier than 1,100 lbs, even though it could carry two of them. But anyway they consistently failed to achieve any hits. There's a reason if they began using torpedoes - but later, not in 1940. So even in the rare occurrence that the SM 81s pack bigger bombs, they will not score a hit with them.
So you may wish for a 2,000-pound hit on a British battleship in the Med in 1940. You just won't get one. Aircraft that have the accuracy lack the payload, and aircraft that have the payload (mostly in theory rather than in practice) lack the accuracy.
That was the point. I thought I didn't need to spell it out this wordily.
Have a cursory look at a general history of the war in the Med. You will learn that the British were not all that afraid to come repeatedly within shore bombardment distance from the Italian coast. They didn't trade cruisers and capital ships for those bombardments.
The D Stukas were a nasty surprise for the Royal Navy, yes, in 1941, for some of the reasons you mention. Even so, missions along the Italian coasts continued.
Sure the British aren't going to park battleships in Malta. That would be akin to the Germans parking them in Brest. But the landing operation against Malta isn't going to come as a surprise to the British, nor is it going to last one day and be over at sunset. The British will come out to play, the Luftwaffe and Regia Marina can cause some damage if lucky, but there will be a real fleet action. In that case my money is on the Royal Navy.
Now you use the world repeatedly, which I take to be more than twice. But you are missing the point. To defend Malta, it can't be repeatedly, it must be CONTINUOUSLY for several months. If the RN takes the forces in the Med and tries to maintain a continuous fleet at Malta, it will be sunk or in dry dock. After this happens, the Axis takes Malta. If it holds in Egypt, the battle will be over before it arrives. Either case means Malta falls in 1940 or early 1941.
It will not be over in 1 day, but the Germans will have a firm beachhead by sunset. And the fate of Malta will be sealed. Since Crete only last a few weeks, the Malta land battle could basically be over by the time the RN arrives on day 4 or 5.
I went through the type of damage expected to be done by various types of bombs. The Germans had more planes and can drop 2000 lb bomb from level bombers, though most damage is likely to be done by dive bombers and fighter bombers carry smaller bombs.