Getting WWI to start a few years later

Onyx

Banned
In few years later, I only mean 1915, 1916, 1917, WWI and Post-WWI years

But is it possible to get WWI to start after 1914?
 
One PoD: Franz Ferdinand's driver doesn't make a wrong turn.

The powder keg is still there, but it lacks OTL's spark.
 

Germaniac

Donor
More time allows even more industrial development in Russia. Maybe with a rebuilt Black Sea fleet the Russians attempt to push the Ottomans again and the Russo-Turkish war of 1915 (or 1917 whenever the next Russian dreadnought is finished) erupts into a world war when the French announce support for Russia and mobilizes, followed by Germany condemning French mobilization, followed by Austrian Mobilization. Britain will likely stay out unless the French get thoroughly thrashed and the Italians might actually stay out for their own good.
 
More time allows even more industrial development in Russia. Maybe with a rebuilt Black Sea fleet the Russians attempt to push the Ottomans again and the Russo-Turkish war of 1915 (or 1917 whenever the next Russian dreadnought is finished) erupts into a world war when the French announce support for Russia and mobilizes, followed by Germany condemning French mobilization, followed by Austrian Mobilization. Britain will likely stay out unless the French get thoroughly thrashed and the Italians might actually stay out for their own good.

In this scenario, Italy would be likely to join with the CPs. They stand to gain colonies in Africa, plus Nice, Savoy and Corsica.
 

Onyx

Banned
Well I like the way in which the war starts a year later, but what about the US?

Also do you think I can get the war started by 1916?
 
Where do we go from there?

As Germaniac mentions, the most important change is that Russia gets another year (or two, or three, or...) of modernization. The Germans were afraid of Russia's growing rail network, which is one of the reasons the war starts in OTL when it did. The Schlieffen Plan hits France first because Germany assumes that Russia will take time to mobilize. But railways will make Russian mobilization faster.

A later WWI may even remove the Schlieffen Plan altogether as German military commanders come up with a new contingency plan to deal with a faster Russia. How soon that would happen or what kind of plan it might be I don't know.

The entry of the U.S. depends on the specifics of the war. A long war against Britain led to unrestricted submarine warfare, which is OTL's primary motivator for U.S. entry. Best way to keep the U.S. neutral is to either keep Britain neutral (difficult but not impossible,) and/or keep it a much more limited war than OTL's drawn-out bloodbath.
 
Britain is still coming in if the Von Schlieffen plan is used, or the German navy goes anywhere near the channel. All the reasons for them to intervene are still there, they just need an "incident" to sell it to the public. The Germans would have to walk very soft to keep them out. And even then they would be supplying the French and Russians
 
A later WWI may even remove the Schlieffen Plan altogether as German military commanders come up with a new contingency plan to deal with a faster Russia. How soon that would happen or what kind of plan it might be I don't know.

Agreed! The sclieffen plan was deemed to not work before the war anyways but considering there was nothing else on the table they used it. About another plan, Im not sure but what if Russia has a Bolshevik style revolution in 19-- (enter war year) causing them to lose the ability to fight for good or at least for Germany to implement a schlieffen style capture of Paris then swing around to take or defend the east?
 

Germaniac

Donor
One big thing that people don't realize about Russia is that the extra year or two could be the deciding time. Russia was actually quite effective when sound military minds were at the helm and could very likely be pushing into Germany instead of the other way around.

The Russians were not defeated by the Germans, they were defeated by their own inability to get grain and arms to a front in 700 miles away from the largest manufacturing region of the nation. The Russians were, at the time of the starting bell, in the process of building a series of rail connections which would connect the caucuses with the Ukraine with Moscow and finally to Warsaw. This would alleviate huge logistical concerns which the Russians had. By having troops well supplied and ready we could perhaps see Russian troops capturing Konigsburg before the Germans can respond.

Not only militarily but it would help the populace as well. A little known fact was that Russia was actually producing more grain during the war than they could use, HUGE stores of it were just piling up in the Ukraine, while the populations of Moscow and Petrograd (filled to the brim with fleeing peasants) starved. Without effective transit the grain couldn't reach the people and in all likelihood much if not most of the Revolutionaries loose their starving base of supports.

In terms of the Ottomans, The Russians could puncture a whole right through the Bosporus with their newly reconstructed fleet. The Germans will not be able to send the Breslau and the Goeben, as the British Queen Elizabeth class are completed while likely only the Bayern will be completed on the German side. The Germans would be decisively outnumbered and will likely not see a Jutland battle because now Germany is also worrying about the Russians who can pose a threat to the Germans in the Baltic.
 
In terms of British politics if WWI breaks out after 1915, there would have been a general election sometime in 1915, which based on the results of by-elections up to July 1914, would be won by the Conservatives and Andrew Bonar Law would become Prime Minister.

So would Bonar Law form a coalition government with the Liberals and Labour sometime during the war, as Asquith did with the Conservatives and Labour in 1915 in OTL? There would be plenty of interesting butterflies in British politics: If there is no Asquith/Lloyd George split, that would have consequences for the Liberal Party. Also Austen Chamberlain might become Prime Minister in 1921, if Bonar Law had resigned because of ill-health.

The Government of Ireland Act 1914, which gave Ireland (excluding six north-eastern counties) Home Rule, would have been enacted in August 1914. So probably there would not have been the equivalent of the 1916 Easter Rising.
 
Would the extra time give the chance for someone who realizes the true lethality of the machine gun to gain some influence in one of the armies of the main powers? Such a change in strategic and tactical doctrine could turn the war from bloody stalemate into a decisive victory for the side that had the tactical foresight.
 

yourworstnightmare

Banned
Donor
Hmm, yeah if Franz Ferdinand had survived, the war would probably start a few years later. We'd at least have France and Russia versus Germany and Austria- Hungary. Italy would probably stay out, unless the Central Powers are beaten badly. Since Germany would probably follow the Schlieffen plan and invade Belgium, we'd probably see British intervention too.
 
In terms of British politics if WWI breaks out after 1915, there would have been a general election sometime in 1915, which based on the results of by-elections up to July 1914, would be won by the Conservatives and Andrew Bonar Law would become Prime Minister.

So would Bonar Law form a coalition government with the Liberals and Labour sometime during the war, as Asquith did with the Conservatives and Labour in 1915 in OTL? There would be plenty of interesting butterflies in British politics: If there is no Asquith/Lloyd George split, that would have consequences for the Liberal Party. Also Austen Chamberlain might become Prime Minister in 1921, if Bonar Law had resigned because of ill-health.

The Government of Ireland Act 1914, which gave Ireland (excluding six north-eastern counties) Home Rule, would have been enacted in August 1914. So probably there would not have been the equivalent of the 1916 Easter Rising.

The Liberal split not happening would be huge - with a united Liberal party post war there would be less need for the progressive middle to flee to the developing Labour party in search of a viable force to oppose the Tories. We could even be in that weird place of having a viable three party Westminster system!
 
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