Get the Mongols further into Europe

Even if the mongols managed to stretch their conquests to Europe, and that’s a bigger if than what people might believe, nothing would really change. The Mongols usually left their vassals to their devices once proven trustworthy, so when their empire eventually collapses, because no matter what that’s inevitable, Poland and Hungary would break free like Rus did. In cultural terms, nothing would change either, the Mongols left little to no cultural impact whatsoever.

Let's start from the end. ;)

The Mongols, even if their OTL footprint in Europe had been quite small (most of the Tatars had been the same Turik nomads who had been there before the invasion), had a very serious impact on their Western neighbors. And that impact was clearly related to the Mongols.

To start with, administrative organization (breaking into the standard tactical units) of the Muscovite army had been based on the Mongolian and remained in place until mid-XVII. The same goes for the "easternization" of the Muscovite army in the terms of weaponry and even horses. While arguably the Russian princedoms would eventually join into the single state, in OTL impact of the GH on that process is undeniable and the same goes for Tsar's authority/early creation of the absolutist state. Besides questionable issue of the Russian obscenities, there was definite influence in the terms of the costumes and some words.

As far as Poland/Lithuania are involved, their "classic" warfare also was developed with quite certain enemy in mind and the famous winged hussars had been the most spectacular part of the answer.

BTW, in the pre-Mongolian times Russians, Poles and Lithuanian had been using the swords. Sabre is post-Mongolian "contribution".

Then, in the scheme that I proposed, the changes would go much further. If the Mongols are crushing the Guelphs in Italy, this means that Frederic II has a good chance to expand his power to the whole Italy, which may mean a surviving Hohenstaufen dynasty, potentially earlier unification of Italy, diminished power of the Papacy, no French conquest of the Naples, no eventual Aragonian rule in Sicily, etc.
 
Let's start from the end. ;)

The Mongols, even if their OTL footprint in Europe had been quite small (most of the Tatars had been the same Turik nomads who had been there before the invasion), had a very serious impact on their Western neighbors. And that impact was clearly related to the Mongols.

To start with, administrative organization (breaking into the standard tactical units) of the Muscovite army had been based on the Mongolian and remained in place until mid-XVII. The same goes for the "easternization" of the Muscovite army in the terms of weaponry and even horses. While arguably the Russian princedoms would eventually join into the single state, in OTL impact of the GH on that process is undeniable and the same goes for Tsar's authority/early creation of the absolutist state. Besides questionable issue of the Russian obscenities, there was definite influence in the terms of the costumes and some words.

As far as Poland/Lithuania are involved, their "classic" warfare also was developed with quite certain enemy in mind and the famous winged hussars had been the most spectacular part of the answer.

BTW, in the pre-Mongolian times Russians, Poles and Lithuanian had been using the swords. Sabre is post-Mongolian "contribution".

Then, in the scheme that I proposed, the changes would go much further. If the Mongols are crushing the Guelphs in Italy, this means that Frederic II has a good chance to expand his power to the whole Italy, which may mean a surviving Hohenstaufen dynasty, potentially earlier unification of Italy, diminished power of the Papacy, no French conquest of the Naples, no eventual Aragonian rule in Sicily, etc.


I didn’t know Mongolians had such an impact military wise, I admit I didn’t dwell much on that, but concerning the Tsar’s absolutism, that would have been there regardless, all Rus principalities, except for Novgorod, were absolutist, indeed, Vladimir I had as much power over his subjects as Ivan IV. And come on, Mongols in Italy? How? Italy has no vast plains and it’s crossed by the Appenines throughout it’s entire length. They wouldn’t be able to use the entirety of their cavalry, supply lines would be easily cut off since they don’t even have a fleet, they’d get stuck and die of the same illness that struck countless people in the Italian marshes, that’s how Attila’s third great invasion failed, not to say he was necessarily Mongolian, but there’s more than one parallel between Huns and Mongols.

It would only work is Frederick actually aligned himself with the Mongols and gave them support, but he was a rather smart ruler, and if there’s a golden rule any good ruler knew back in the day, was to never let in a force which you can’t get out later.
 
I didn’t know Mongolians had such an impact military wise, I admit I didn’t dwell much on that, but concerning the Tsar’s absolutism, that would have been there regardless, all Rus principalities, except for Novgorod, were absolutist, indeed, Vladimir I had as much power over his subjects as Ivan IV.

Russian principalities prior to the Mongols were pretty much the same as the medieval principalities elsewhere and power of the princes was not absolute. Strictly speaking power of Ivan IV was not absolute either: he could execute a subject but he could not order a person to serve under a less aristocratic person or even to sit lower than such a person at Tsar's table.

And come on, Mongols in Italy? How? Italy has no vast plains and it’s crossed by the Appenines throughout it’s entire length.

Terrible, isn't it? AFAIK, the Caucasus region is not better and Tibet Mountains are definitely worse.


They wouldn’t be able to use the entirety of their cavalry, supply lines would be easily cut off since they don’t even have a fleet, they’d get stuck and die of the same illness that struck countless people in the Italian marshes, that’s how Attila’s third great invasion failed, not to say he was necessarily Mongolian, but there’s more than one parallel between Huns and Mongols.

AFAIK, Lombardy is not all marshes, and with all these terrible obstacles medieval and early modern Italy was not conquered only by the people who did not want to get there. As for the rest, conversation was not about "entirety of their cavalry" but about 20 - 40,000, a number that would be big enough to deal with any opposition available in the XIII century, especially taking into account possibility to use Gibbelins against Guelps.

Parallels between the Mongols and Huns are limited to the fact that both had been horse riders. The Huns were exclusively the light mounted archers while the Mongols had both light and armored (both people and horses) cavalry AND also had highly-qualified siege specialists. Which means that, unlike the Huns, they could get engaged on equal terms in a hand-to-hand combat with any Western cavalry of that period.

What "supply lines" are you talking about I have no idea: the Mongols did not use XVIII century system of the magazines and lived by combination of the dried food they were carried with themselves and whatever they could loot from a countryside.


It would only work is Frederick actually aligned himself with the Mongols and gave them support, but he was a rather smart ruler, and if there’s a golden rule any good ruler knew back in the day, was to never let in a force which you can’t get out later.

I'm afraid that you are misreading the situation in Italy. Frederic was controlling the South (Sicily and Naples) and had some allies on the North but most of Lombardy had been siding with the Popes. He was interested in crushing the power of the cities of Lombardy while the Mongols would be interested in looting, which means that their interests are coinciding.

The Mongols would obviously not stay in Italy (just as they did not stay in Russia) but devastation of the Northern Italy would mean elimination of his enemies. In the case of the "unholy alliance" his forces would not even have to join the Mongols (of course, they may and the Mongols were always appreciating availability of the allies): they'd just have to wait until the Mongols are out and take control of the ruins and survivors. He would have to pay them some kind of "extortion money" for not going all the way South but that's it.
 
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