Geronimo : What if Osama Bin Laden was killed prior to 9/11?
- Thread starter Iwanh
- Start date
Making a guess I think that photo is of a young Emperor Haile Salese of Ethiopia.
What? Will in this TL Ethiopia return to monarchy? Or get balkanized? What happened in 2005 in OTL in Ethiopia?
That’s the young king of Afghanistan, who in OTL was proposed by the Bonn Convention as a restored leader of post-Taliban Afghanistan, maybe in this timeline that happens?
I probably should've said "Lieberman only looks like as bad as he does because of everything that happened afterwards." I don't think he was an especially good running mate but I don't think he was catastrophic. There was excitement following the announcement, strong fundraising, and he helped out with Jewish communities in Florida. I agree that Jeanne Shaheen would've probably been a better running mate. I haven't seen enough videos of her to know whether she would be a good attack dog or hype person but she would've generated more excitement.
I'm referring to Joe Lieberman's subsequent political career. Joe Lieberman looks like a bad running mate choice for the Democratic ticket in 2000 because of his horribly failed President run in 2004, because he lost his Senate primary in 2006 but then ran as an independent against the urgings of his party, he endorsed a Republican in 2008 and spoke at the RNC, and despite the fact that he once strongly opposed the filibuster (co-sponsoring an amendment to kill it in 1995 with Tom Harkin) he used it to eliminate the public option in 2009... And look, let's just put aside personal politics for a second. At the end of the day, when a candidate chooses a running mate, it's the first choice they're making as a potential President. They're choosing a potential successor and a partner in government. Given everything that followed, it's hard to imagine anyone who voted for Gore would've been satisfied with anything that Lieberman had to offer.
Part 56: Return of the King
Part LVI
Return of the King
King Zahir Shah of Afghanistan (reigned 1933 - 1973)
After 33 years of exile, Mohammad Zahir Shah returned to his native land. The 90-year-old former king, stepped off the plane at Kabul’s refurbished airport where Northern Alliance soldiers and decades-old flags stood in the breeze. His ancient frame carried the hopes of many, as he walked down the stairs and onto the dusty red carpet, symbolically carrying the dream for a long and lasting peace in Afghanistan.
Removed from power in 1973 by his cousin in a staged coup d’état; today a large crowd of admirers stood and applauded him, greeted by the senior leadership of the new powers that be in the Afghan capital, including Ahmed Shah Massoud the so-called 'lion of Panjshir' both men in close competition for the most beloved Afghan.
Eyes were welling up. The faces of cheering Afghans many too young to remember his rule, lined the rubble-strewn streets. What motivated their adulation? Perhaps, because he represented a final physical link to a time before the wars that had left countless dead and destitute. And now a symbol of the future ahead.
''He was overwhelmed, you could see it in his face,'' said Rina Amir, one of the hundreds of Afghans who greeted the king at the airport. ''He said he was coming home to be with his people, to bring them peace.''
Zahir’s spokesman read a statement on his behalf ‘'After 33 years, I have landed on my soil and homeland; imagine how I feel,'' the statement read. ''I have seen the mountains of Afghanistan and my people and my friends. There is no prosperity for me but to serve my people as best I can.''.
(Left to Right) prep for Zahir's arrival, celebrating Afghans, Zahir steps off the plane
His arrival served to puncture the ballooning tension in the country, as more and more gathered from far and near for the upcoming grand council, the Loya Jirga, differing in ethnic and religious backgrounds. Both the Taliban and Alliance were coming together in the possible pursuit of peace and a new order. Despite a cease-fire that had been in place since July, it hadn’t stopped other factions and tribes from taking up arms against each other and the unresolved future of the nation left room for future conflict.
The delegates gathered with the future of a country at stake on November 11th, the most important members in attendance were Massoud the military leader of the Northern Alliance the forces responsible for the bulk of the recent fighting and who currently held control of Kabul, their faction consisted of prominent ethnic Tajiks, though there were Pashtuns and other groups involved.
King Zahir though mostly there in spirit, held a decent spread of support for a monarchical restoration, and then there were the other warlords, Dostum the Uzbek and Mohaqiq the Hazara, the official President of the Alliance Rabbani, Ismael Khan from the westernmost Herat province, Abdul Haq the most prominent Pashtun Warlord, each angling for a less centralized state with power distributed more to the provinces (and preferably themselves), Also in attendance was the representative of the Taliban; foreign minister Hasan Akhund a close associate of Mullah Omar. Officially the Taliban were not in attendance as delegates, following a strict doctrine that rejected the Taliban’s association with representative government. Still, they were there to ensure that their demands were respected to preclude any successful peace accord. Also present were various representatives of foreign governments, exiles, and international groups with their own demands and desires from the meeting.
(Top, Left to Right) Ahmed Massoud, King Zahir, Dostum and Mohaqiq
(Bottom, Left to Right) President Rabbani, Iksmael Khan, Abdul Khan, and Akhund
Item number one for the delegates was a peace deal, after years of factional conflict, the leaders of every group wanted a permanent cessation of hostilities, decades of blood had been shed and it was past time to settle the matter in Afghanistan, but each side had its prerequisites. The Northern Alliance viewed themselves as the victors and saw the Taliban as their thoroughly whipped enemy, other warlords were anxious to push the Taliban out entirely and extract the loot and vengeance from their lands. Foreign powers required that any peace with the Taliban include the total expulsion of foreign fighters and their disarmament, the Taliban wanted the swift withdrawal of anti-terror coalition forces from the country and amnesty for its followers and leaders.
Item two concerned what the new Afghanistan would look like, Massoud backed a representative Islamic democracy and he hoped that the Taliban might even join in, to prove that the new government was fully legitimized by the people. He backed a more centralized Afghanistan, with a President, national assembly, and a national army that would guarantee Afghanistan’s independence from meddlesome superpowers though with deference to Afghanistan’s provinces regarding taxation and cultural laws. Massoud played coy, but it was clear from his allies that this kind of Afghanistan would inevitably lead him, the Tajik warrior, to the forefront, as the new leader of this newly united Afghanistan.[1]
The prospect of a Tajik-led Afghanistan was not promising to Masoud’s more independent-minded allies, who wanted more than anything to rule their provinces and tribes totally undisturbed by anyone in Kabul be they Taliban or Northern Alliance proposing a federalized Afghanistan, with strong regional autonomy, they pointed to the history of attempted centralization in Afghanistan and the subsequent civil wars that followed, but Massoud believed the opposite that a divided Afghanistan would inevitably devolve into factionalism and civil war.
Then the Taliban (supported by Pakistan) demanded that their remaining territory remain their own, uninfringed by any new government, insisting on the right of refusal to partake in any representative democracy and that religious law could not be infringed in their territory. This strident position produced angst both from Massoud who hoped for a united government, foreign governments who viewed the Taliban as a direct threat, and opposition Pashtun forces who still sought to overthrow the Taliban in the south.
The third and final item was who the next leader of Afghanistan would be, the obvious option was Massoud, the freedom fighter who had forged an alliance with former enemies, had successfully courted global support, and contributed greatly to the collapse of the Taliban’s control outside its southern strongholds. He had been preparing himself for a transition toward civilian rule, careful to present himself to his foreign backers as an erudite, calm, intelligent, moderate, Afghan; best equipped to command the support of the public and put the country on the path of stability.
Leader of the Northern Alliance Ahmed Massoud
But he was not the ideal choice, an ethnic Tajik, it was feared his appointment could provoke hostility amongst the Pashtun that made up 42% of the country, especially if his vision of a newly centralized Afghanistan came to be. Pakistan was especially opposed to Massoud; Massoud had a consistent history of loudly accusing Afghanistan’s neighbor of openly meddling in their affairs and directly aiding the Taliban regime and suspecting the Pakistani intelligence agency of coordinating several failed attempts against his life.
But apart from Massoud, there were few others with a significant body of support for the role. Within the Northern Alliance, there was Rabbani, the official/interim President of Afghanistan who had been quick to shack up in the Presidential palace and though more acceptable to Pakistan he was still a Tajik and totally loathed by the Taliban.
The Northern Alliance had some Pashtuns in its ranks, the brothers Qadeer and Haq who liberated Nangahar with U.S. aid, Abdul Wardak a prominent army colonel but none of them were prepared or had enough support for leadership over the country and others like Hamid Karzai were busy trying to fuel their own southern revolts regardless of the ceasefire.
There was only one real competitor, the former King Zahir, despite his advanced age he had a base of support that matched Massoud, and an estimated 60% of the country favored his return, spread out across the whole Afghan population, harkening back to an era of nonintrusive leadership, his support was considerably strong among Pashtun, and it seemed likely the King would play some role in the new government.
A full restoration of the monarchy was unlikely, Masoud’s allies were in no rush to totally abandon their vision of the country, but a constitutional monarchy as Afghanistan briefly experienced in Zahir's latter years could be possible. He was preferable to the Taliban over a dominant Northern Alliance government, foreign countries also leaned in favor of Zahir as many viewed him as a more neutral force that could preside over a necessary period of reconciliation.
There were other longshot candidates Ahmed Gaiali, leader of a large number of refugees in Pakistan and backed by the Islamists as a preferred candidate, and Sirat an Uzbek exiled scholar who could lead a neutral government as a Zahir substitute but both quickly deferred to the king.
The Jirga offered an opportunity for a new Afghanistan but as the days went by it became more and more clear that the ideological, ethnic, and religious divides that had created the civil war in the country could not be brushed away with ceremony alone and international observers feared that despite the delegates best intentions fighting could resume again between the groups, or factionalism could become the de facto solution, with each warlord severing their own chunk from the country for as long as that could last.
Delegates at the Loya Jirga
An impasse needed to be breached between the Massoud backers, Zahir supporters, and the Taliban, for the sake of any successful future Afghan government. The international community stepped in, Massoud made frequent assertations that when he negotiated with the Taliban he had to speak first with Pakistan and he suggested that the anti-terror coalition (The United States, Russia, United Kingdom, and Australia) representatives do the same.
Following the Taliban’s ceasefire, their reliance on Pakistan had never been more blatant, they were weaker than ever before, local tribes and councils were rejecting their demands, troops were fleeing the field or wholesale abandoning the country, the bulk of its most hardened soldiers were captured or casualties, the moral in the ranks only nadired when according to reports the Taliban’s leader Mullah Omar had ceased to provide military orders, suggesting that Taliban warriors defend their homes over frontline warfare, seen as a tacit endorsement of desertion. Their army was severely depleted and facing near-daily tribal revolts, their forces maintained only by the lifeline of Pakistan’s shipments of weapons, cash, ‘advisors’ and volunteers had propped them up through the last year.
But across that border, President Musharaff seized the opportunity to negotiate. Musharraf walked a fine line as the President of Pakistan granting tentative support to anti-terror coalition strikes against specific groups in Afghanistan but had drawn that line at regime change, now that the line had been crossed he pushed the Taliban to accept the ceasefire. Now he suggested a power-sharing agreement, rejecting a Massoud-led Afghanistan seeing him and the Tajiks as stooges of India and he pressed for what he called a ‘round table government’ that included a ‘moderate Taliban presence in the new government’ as part of a transitional body before a permanent government took its place. “This must be a government of all Afghans,” The Pakistani President said “King Zahir Shah, political leaders, moderate Taliban leaders, elements from the Northern Alliance, tribal elders, Afghans living outside their country, all must play a role in this regard.”
The other powers assessed Musharraf’s remarks. The Western powers were largely opposed to an Afghan government that included Taliban members and rejected the idea of a ‘moderate Taliban’ PM Blair called it ‘fanciful thinking’ and Putin had blunter warnings ‘those who propose negotiating with the Mullah’s are negotiating with murderers who should be swept away’.
The United States, President Edwards, and Secretary of State George Mitchell were open to a negotiated settlement with a broad government with the sticking points that a future Afghanistan needed to disarm the Taliban forces, expel foreign volunteers and terrorists, acknowledge basic human rights, and be democratic. “These goals will ensure the long-term safety of the United States, and the world and secure a stabilized Afghanistan,” said the President, asked if he would consider Taliban officials having a role in government as Musharraf suggested he left the door slightly open “That would be up to the delegates, but we want to make sure these talks are successful, to do as much as we can to aid this process”.
(Clockwise from top left ) President Musharraf, President Edwards, President Putin, and Prime Minister Blair
The Jirga was tense and the international coalition, alongside UN envoys, kept urging the delegates to come to some form of agreement, fearing that without a settlement, the warlords would permanently go their separate ways. The Northern Alliance also suffered internal divisions, acting President Rabbani threatened to take his ball and go home if he were not reinstated President, but Russia leaned on him to continue, the U.S., U.N., and Afghanistan’s neighboring nations made it clear that economic aid and relief would need a stable government to properly flow.
Inside the grand white tents of Kabul, delegates bickered, argued, ridiculed, criticized, fought, and scoffed until finally after over 15 days of back-to-back negotiations, the outline of the new Afghan Government and the basis of peace was laid out, a Constitutional Republic led by a King.
The choice of the delegates and factions ultimately was between Massoud and Zahir but Masood’s appointment was consistently repulsed by Pakistan, the Taliban, prominent Pashtuns, and exile communities, leaving Zahir the only leader with comparable support as the default option. The monarchy would remain abolished, Zahir would rule as President and head of state, and in return, Massoud would be selected as the nation’s Prime Minister and head of government.
(Left ) Prime Minister Massoud and (Right) President Zahir
Massoud viewed the agreement as acceptable, especially considering the extreme age of the King and as the agreed new plans for the new Afghan government's structure were being laid out. Massoud would be the head of a new 'National Assembly' to be made up of elected representatives, provincial delegates, and presidential nominees, to balance the powers of the nation. A proviso cabinet of mixed ethnicities and backgrounds was also unveiled, where the Northern Alliance took the key offices of defense and policing. No official Taliban members were offered posts but several Pashtun exiles and leaders with relations with the group were, alongside a half dozen technocrats and exiled professionals, Massoud also agreed to a foreign troop drawdown where the coalition would be replaced with a U.N. peacekeeping mission.
The Taliban delegates agreed with caveats, the country would be non-partisan, enabling the Taliban to back candidates without directly joining parties or politicking. A general amnesty and prisoner exchange would be arranged. Respect for Islamic law and a timeline for the departure of foreign forces, in exchange the Taliban would agree to expel foreign forces, turn over arms caches, and cooperate. With a handshake, it was agreed.
''This is a new era for Afghanistan,'' Mr. Brahimi the UN representative told the tribal chiefs. ''Everyone realizes at long last that the long night of conflict is coming to an end. I think the people of Afghanistan are going to finally put the conflict behind them and start rebuilding the country.''
The settlement was a compromise, an imperfect settlement but an imperfect settlement that gave the Afghans a say in their future for the first time since Soviet forces invaded in 1979. There were unresolved issues, many were hesitant to believe the Taliban who would remain in control of nearly a third of the country would stay true to their word and truly commit to a democratic Afghanistan, little was said about the various warlords who had encamped themselves in provincial capitals and it possibly cemented some of their power, and there were already some who declared the process and deal, illegitimate.
Publicly there was one major warlord opposed to the peace deal, Gulbuddin Hekmatyar was one of the many exiles who returned to Afghanistan as the tide of war turned, but he joined it with a different goal, a radical Islamist former Afghani PM before the Taleban came to power, Hekmatyar was a bitter opponent of Massoud and the Northern Alliance who held him personally responsible for much of the civil wars worst destruction. Hekmatyar called the new government a “puppet of our committed enemies” and issued a fatwa against the government supported by some Taliban members and in the east of the country pamphlets circulated with sporadic incidents of rocket attacks.
However, the one man who had strangely little to say about the agreement was the leader of the Taliban, Mullah Omar. After their reversal of fortunes, the Taliban movement had been fraying and it was uncertain if the movement would survive, Omar was dejected, commanders were dispatching their own orders, and though he remained committed to the fight to the general meetings of his senior councilors and faith leaders, one on one with his advisors, his mind did backflips. He spoke in circles, of ending the fight, continuing the war, leaving the country, disbanding the movement, or pursuing a guerrilla campaign. In one notable exchange when Omar was asked about the Jirga deal, he supposedly said ‘Sign it or don’t, protect yourselves, just don’t ask me anymore’, Omar had practically abdicated all responsibility to his subordinates who were just as torn over the deal as he was.[2]
Omar remained the spiritual head of the Taliban movement but according to most, his role in the Taliban was greatly reduced, his followers divided, mostly complied with the deal, content to return to their families, rule their provinces and enjoy amnesty. This included most of Omar’s senior deputies but it was a different story for the commanders, their fighters, and several clerics, who rejected any government backed by infidels “Everywhere that infidels come, on that pure soil, they cannot stay. It is necessary that they face with defeat. Do not support or help them.” Said one cleric and the renowned bloody commander Dadullah declared Jihad, vowing that he would not stop until "Reds, Jews and Christians, all the foreign crusaders are expelled from Afghanistan.”, as for the foreign fighters and terrorists loyalties were similarly divided and it remained to be seen how effectively the expulsion order would be enforced.
(Left to Right) dissident Warlord Hekmatyar, Taliban leader Omar, Taliban commander Dadullah
But for the moment, with a deal in hand and an interim government established, a former King at its President side by side with the former warlord turned Prime Minister, the country looked forward. The new President spoke, wishing the country “peace, peace, peace evermore” and Massoud pledged that “the Afghans will see an end to the rule by the bullet”. But it was also clear the enormity of the tasks that lay ahead of the new government. It needed to tend relationships between its own factions, the King and Prime Minister, the exiles and warlords, the Taliban and the technocrats, the insurgents and tribals their neighbors, and the international community all before elections could take place in over a year, and a constitution be fully drafted.
Scarred by over a quarter century of conflict, many Afghans celebrated the news that the country was taking its first steps back to a representative government, where their people's fate was in their hands. But it was yet to be seen, with so many old wounds if the Kalashnikov and fatigues could be left behind permanently.
(Top) swearing in of PM Massoud by the President
(Bottom) Flag of the new Afghan transitional government
[1] Massoud has been mythologized into oblivion, we can't be sure of his actual vision for a post-Taliban Afghanistan but I have extracted from his speeches and writings. He was a dedicated fighter and I find it really unlikely he would return to his metaphorical plow and would want to lead a new Afghanistan primarily to unify the country and end factional and tribal infighting that he saw as the reason other countries kept meddling with Afghanistan
[2] This is basically what OTL Omar did, there is little evidence that post-invasion he had a direct role in the guerilla war and he may have been willing to disband the movement if reassured of his own safety, separate Taliban leaders did at times offer power-sharing agreements but when it comes to the Taliban you should always consider they are being totally disingenuous. Time will tell ITTL.
Return of the King
King Zahir Shah of Afghanistan (reigned 1933 - 1973)
After 33 years of exile, Mohammad Zahir Shah returned to his native land. The 90-year-old former king, stepped off the plane at Kabul’s refurbished airport where Northern Alliance soldiers and decades-old flags stood in the breeze. His ancient frame carried the hopes of many, as he walked down the stairs and onto the dusty red carpet, symbolically carrying the dream for a long and lasting peace in Afghanistan.
Removed from power in 1973 by his cousin in a staged coup d’état; today a large crowd of admirers stood and applauded him, greeted by the senior leadership of the new powers that be in the Afghan capital, including Ahmed Shah Massoud the so-called 'lion of Panjshir' both men in close competition for the most beloved Afghan.
Eyes were welling up. The faces of cheering Afghans many too young to remember his rule, lined the rubble-strewn streets. What motivated their adulation? Perhaps, because he represented a final physical link to a time before the wars that had left countless dead and destitute. And now a symbol of the future ahead.
''He was overwhelmed, you could see it in his face,'' said Rina Amir, one of the hundreds of Afghans who greeted the king at the airport. ''He said he was coming home to be with his people, to bring them peace.''
Zahir’s spokesman read a statement on his behalf ‘'After 33 years, I have landed on my soil and homeland; imagine how I feel,'' the statement read. ''I have seen the mountains of Afghanistan and my people and my friends. There is no prosperity for me but to serve my people as best I can.''.
(Left to Right) prep for Zahir's arrival, celebrating Afghans, Zahir steps off the plane
His arrival served to puncture the ballooning tension in the country, as more and more gathered from far and near for the upcoming grand council, the Loya Jirga, differing in ethnic and religious backgrounds. Both the Taliban and Alliance were coming together in the possible pursuit of peace and a new order. Despite a cease-fire that had been in place since July, it hadn’t stopped other factions and tribes from taking up arms against each other and the unresolved future of the nation left room for future conflict.
The delegates gathered with the future of a country at stake on November 11th, the most important members in attendance were Massoud the military leader of the Northern Alliance the forces responsible for the bulk of the recent fighting and who currently held control of Kabul, their faction consisted of prominent ethnic Tajiks, though there were Pashtuns and other groups involved.
King Zahir though mostly there in spirit, held a decent spread of support for a monarchical restoration, and then there were the other warlords, Dostum the Uzbek and Mohaqiq the Hazara, the official President of the Alliance Rabbani, Ismael Khan from the westernmost Herat province, Abdul Haq the most prominent Pashtun Warlord, each angling for a less centralized state with power distributed more to the provinces (and preferably themselves), Also in attendance was the representative of the Taliban; foreign minister Hasan Akhund a close associate of Mullah Omar. Officially the Taliban were not in attendance as delegates, following a strict doctrine that rejected the Taliban’s association with representative government. Still, they were there to ensure that their demands were respected to preclude any successful peace accord. Also present were various representatives of foreign governments, exiles, and international groups with their own demands and desires from the meeting.
(Top, Left to Right) Ahmed Massoud, King Zahir, Dostum and Mohaqiq
(Bottom, Left to Right) President Rabbani, Iksmael Khan, Abdul Khan, and Akhund
Item number one for the delegates was a peace deal, after years of factional conflict, the leaders of every group wanted a permanent cessation of hostilities, decades of blood had been shed and it was past time to settle the matter in Afghanistan, but each side had its prerequisites. The Northern Alliance viewed themselves as the victors and saw the Taliban as their thoroughly whipped enemy, other warlords were anxious to push the Taliban out entirely and extract the loot and vengeance from their lands. Foreign powers required that any peace with the Taliban include the total expulsion of foreign fighters and their disarmament, the Taliban wanted the swift withdrawal of anti-terror coalition forces from the country and amnesty for its followers and leaders.
Item two concerned what the new Afghanistan would look like, Massoud backed a representative Islamic democracy and he hoped that the Taliban might even join in, to prove that the new government was fully legitimized by the people. He backed a more centralized Afghanistan, with a President, national assembly, and a national army that would guarantee Afghanistan’s independence from meddlesome superpowers though with deference to Afghanistan’s provinces regarding taxation and cultural laws. Massoud played coy, but it was clear from his allies that this kind of Afghanistan would inevitably lead him, the Tajik warrior, to the forefront, as the new leader of this newly united Afghanistan.[1]
The prospect of a Tajik-led Afghanistan was not promising to Masoud’s more independent-minded allies, who wanted more than anything to rule their provinces and tribes totally undisturbed by anyone in Kabul be they Taliban or Northern Alliance proposing a federalized Afghanistan, with strong regional autonomy, they pointed to the history of attempted centralization in Afghanistan and the subsequent civil wars that followed, but Massoud believed the opposite that a divided Afghanistan would inevitably devolve into factionalism and civil war.
Then the Taliban (supported by Pakistan) demanded that their remaining territory remain their own, uninfringed by any new government, insisting on the right of refusal to partake in any representative democracy and that religious law could not be infringed in their territory. This strident position produced angst both from Massoud who hoped for a united government, foreign governments who viewed the Taliban as a direct threat, and opposition Pashtun forces who still sought to overthrow the Taliban in the south.
The third and final item was who the next leader of Afghanistan would be, the obvious option was Massoud, the freedom fighter who had forged an alliance with former enemies, had successfully courted global support, and contributed greatly to the collapse of the Taliban’s control outside its southern strongholds. He had been preparing himself for a transition toward civilian rule, careful to present himself to his foreign backers as an erudite, calm, intelligent, moderate, Afghan; best equipped to command the support of the public and put the country on the path of stability.
Leader of the Northern Alliance Ahmed Massoud
But he was not the ideal choice, an ethnic Tajik, it was feared his appointment could provoke hostility amongst the Pashtun that made up 42% of the country, especially if his vision of a newly centralized Afghanistan came to be. Pakistan was especially opposed to Massoud; Massoud had a consistent history of loudly accusing Afghanistan’s neighbor of openly meddling in their affairs and directly aiding the Taliban regime and suspecting the Pakistani intelligence agency of coordinating several failed attempts against his life.
But apart from Massoud, there were few others with a significant body of support for the role. Within the Northern Alliance, there was Rabbani, the official/interim President of Afghanistan who had been quick to shack up in the Presidential palace and though more acceptable to Pakistan he was still a Tajik and totally loathed by the Taliban.
The Northern Alliance had some Pashtuns in its ranks, the brothers Qadeer and Haq who liberated Nangahar with U.S. aid, Abdul Wardak a prominent army colonel but none of them were prepared or had enough support for leadership over the country and others like Hamid Karzai were busy trying to fuel their own southern revolts regardless of the ceasefire.
There was only one real competitor, the former King Zahir, despite his advanced age he had a base of support that matched Massoud, and an estimated 60% of the country favored his return, spread out across the whole Afghan population, harkening back to an era of nonintrusive leadership, his support was considerably strong among Pashtun, and it seemed likely the King would play some role in the new government.
A full restoration of the monarchy was unlikely, Masoud’s allies were in no rush to totally abandon their vision of the country, but a constitutional monarchy as Afghanistan briefly experienced in Zahir's latter years could be possible. He was preferable to the Taliban over a dominant Northern Alliance government, foreign countries also leaned in favor of Zahir as many viewed him as a more neutral force that could preside over a necessary period of reconciliation.
There were other longshot candidates Ahmed Gaiali, leader of a large number of refugees in Pakistan and backed by the Islamists as a preferred candidate, and Sirat an Uzbek exiled scholar who could lead a neutral government as a Zahir substitute but both quickly deferred to the king.
The Jirga offered an opportunity for a new Afghanistan but as the days went by it became more and more clear that the ideological, ethnic, and religious divides that had created the civil war in the country could not be brushed away with ceremony alone and international observers feared that despite the delegates best intentions fighting could resume again between the groups, or factionalism could become the de facto solution, with each warlord severing their own chunk from the country for as long as that could last.
Delegates at the Loya Jirga
An impasse needed to be breached between the Massoud backers, Zahir supporters, and the Taliban, for the sake of any successful future Afghan government. The international community stepped in, Massoud made frequent assertations that when he negotiated with the Taliban he had to speak first with Pakistan and he suggested that the anti-terror coalition (The United States, Russia, United Kingdom, and Australia) representatives do the same.
Following the Taliban’s ceasefire, their reliance on Pakistan had never been more blatant, they were weaker than ever before, local tribes and councils were rejecting their demands, troops were fleeing the field or wholesale abandoning the country, the bulk of its most hardened soldiers were captured or casualties, the moral in the ranks only nadired when according to reports the Taliban’s leader Mullah Omar had ceased to provide military orders, suggesting that Taliban warriors defend their homes over frontline warfare, seen as a tacit endorsement of desertion. Their army was severely depleted and facing near-daily tribal revolts, their forces maintained only by the lifeline of Pakistan’s shipments of weapons, cash, ‘advisors’ and volunteers had propped them up through the last year.
But across that border, President Musharaff seized the opportunity to negotiate. Musharraf walked a fine line as the President of Pakistan granting tentative support to anti-terror coalition strikes against specific groups in Afghanistan but had drawn that line at regime change, now that the line had been crossed he pushed the Taliban to accept the ceasefire. Now he suggested a power-sharing agreement, rejecting a Massoud-led Afghanistan seeing him and the Tajiks as stooges of India and he pressed for what he called a ‘round table government’ that included a ‘moderate Taliban presence in the new government’ as part of a transitional body before a permanent government took its place. “This must be a government of all Afghans,” The Pakistani President said “King Zahir Shah, political leaders, moderate Taliban leaders, elements from the Northern Alliance, tribal elders, Afghans living outside their country, all must play a role in this regard.”
The other powers assessed Musharraf’s remarks. The Western powers were largely opposed to an Afghan government that included Taliban members and rejected the idea of a ‘moderate Taliban’ PM Blair called it ‘fanciful thinking’ and Putin had blunter warnings ‘those who propose negotiating with the Mullah’s are negotiating with murderers who should be swept away’.
The United States, President Edwards, and Secretary of State George Mitchell were open to a negotiated settlement with a broad government with the sticking points that a future Afghanistan needed to disarm the Taliban forces, expel foreign volunteers and terrorists, acknowledge basic human rights, and be democratic. “These goals will ensure the long-term safety of the United States, and the world and secure a stabilized Afghanistan,” said the President, asked if he would consider Taliban officials having a role in government as Musharraf suggested he left the door slightly open “That would be up to the delegates, but we want to make sure these talks are successful, to do as much as we can to aid this process”.
(Clockwise from top left ) President Musharraf, President Edwards, President Putin, and Prime Minister Blair
The Jirga was tense and the international coalition, alongside UN envoys, kept urging the delegates to come to some form of agreement, fearing that without a settlement, the warlords would permanently go their separate ways. The Northern Alliance also suffered internal divisions, acting President Rabbani threatened to take his ball and go home if he were not reinstated President, but Russia leaned on him to continue, the U.S., U.N., and Afghanistan’s neighboring nations made it clear that economic aid and relief would need a stable government to properly flow.
Inside the grand white tents of Kabul, delegates bickered, argued, ridiculed, criticized, fought, and scoffed until finally after over 15 days of back-to-back negotiations, the outline of the new Afghan Government and the basis of peace was laid out, a Constitutional Republic led by a King.
The choice of the delegates and factions ultimately was between Massoud and Zahir but Masood’s appointment was consistently repulsed by Pakistan, the Taliban, prominent Pashtuns, and exile communities, leaving Zahir the only leader with comparable support as the default option. The monarchy would remain abolished, Zahir would rule as President and head of state, and in return, Massoud would be selected as the nation’s Prime Minister and head of government.
(Left ) Prime Minister Massoud and (Right) President Zahir
Massoud viewed the agreement as acceptable, especially considering the extreme age of the King and as the agreed new plans for the new Afghan government's structure were being laid out. Massoud would be the head of a new 'National Assembly' to be made up of elected representatives, provincial delegates, and presidential nominees, to balance the powers of the nation. A proviso cabinet of mixed ethnicities and backgrounds was also unveiled, where the Northern Alliance took the key offices of defense and policing. No official Taliban members were offered posts but several Pashtun exiles and leaders with relations with the group were, alongside a half dozen technocrats and exiled professionals, Massoud also agreed to a foreign troop drawdown where the coalition would be replaced with a U.N. peacekeeping mission.
The Taliban delegates agreed with caveats, the country would be non-partisan, enabling the Taliban to back candidates without directly joining parties or politicking. A general amnesty and prisoner exchange would be arranged. Respect for Islamic law and a timeline for the departure of foreign forces, in exchange the Taliban would agree to expel foreign forces, turn over arms caches, and cooperate. With a handshake, it was agreed.
''This is a new era for Afghanistan,'' Mr. Brahimi the UN representative told the tribal chiefs. ''Everyone realizes at long last that the long night of conflict is coming to an end. I think the people of Afghanistan are going to finally put the conflict behind them and start rebuilding the country.''
The settlement was a compromise, an imperfect settlement but an imperfect settlement that gave the Afghans a say in their future for the first time since Soviet forces invaded in 1979. There were unresolved issues, many were hesitant to believe the Taliban who would remain in control of nearly a third of the country would stay true to their word and truly commit to a democratic Afghanistan, little was said about the various warlords who had encamped themselves in provincial capitals and it possibly cemented some of their power, and there were already some who declared the process and deal, illegitimate.
Publicly there was one major warlord opposed to the peace deal, Gulbuddin Hekmatyar was one of the many exiles who returned to Afghanistan as the tide of war turned, but he joined it with a different goal, a radical Islamist former Afghani PM before the Taleban came to power, Hekmatyar was a bitter opponent of Massoud and the Northern Alliance who held him personally responsible for much of the civil wars worst destruction. Hekmatyar called the new government a “puppet of our committed enemies” and issued a fatwa against the government supported by some Taliban members and in the east of the country pamphlets circulated with sporadic incidents of rocket attacks.
However, the one man who had strangely little to say about the agreement was the leader of the Taliban, Mullah Omar. After their reversal of fortunes, the Taliban movement had been fraying and it was uncertain if the movement would survive, Omar was dejected, commanders were dispatching their own orders, and though he remained committed to the fight to the general meetings of his senior councilors and faith leaders, one on one with his advisors, his mind did backflips. He spoke in circles, of ending the fight, continuing the war, leaving the country, disbanding the movement, or pursuing a guerrilla campaign. In one notable exchange when Omar was asked about the Jirga deal, he supposedly said ‘Sign it or don’t, protect yourselves, just don’t ask me anymore’, Omar had practically abdicated all responsibility to his subordinates who were just as torn over the deal as he was.[2]
Omar remained the spiritual head of the Taliban movement but according to most, his role in the Taliban was greatly reduced, his followers divided, mostly complied with the deal, content to return to their families, rule their provinces and enjoy amnesty. This included most of Omar’s senior deputies but it was a different story for the commanders, their fighters, and several clerics, who rejected any government backed by infidels “Everywhere that infidels come, on that pure soil, they cannot stay. It is necessary that they face with defeat. Do not support or help them.” Said one cleric and the renowned bloody commander Dadullah declared Jihad, vowing that he would not stop until "Reds, Jews and Christians, all the foreign crusaders are expelled from Afghanistan.”, as for the foreign fighters and terrorists loyalties were similarly divided and it remained to be seen how effectively the expulsion order would be enforced.
(Left to Right) dissident Warlord Hekmatyar, Taliban leader Omar, Taliban commander Dadullah
But for the moment, with a deal in hand and an interim government established, a former King at its President side by side with the former warlord turned Prime Minister, the country looked forward. The new President spoke, wishing the country “peace, peace, peace evermore” and Massoud pledged that “the Afghans will see an end to the rule by the bullet”. But it was also clear the enormity of the tasks that lay ahead of the new government. It needed to tend relationships between its own factions, the King and Prime Minister, the exiles and warlords, the Taliban and the technocrats, the insurgents and tribals their neighbors, and the international community all before elections could take place in over a year, and a constitution be fully drafted.
Scarred by over a quarter century of conflict, many Afghans celebrated the news that the country was taking its first steps back to a representative government, where their people's fate was in their hands. But it was yet to be seen, with so many old wounds if the Kalashnikov and fatigues could be left behind permanently.
(Top) swearing in of PM Massoud by the President
(Bottom) Flag of the new Afghan transitional government
[1] Massoud has been mythologized into oblivion, we can't be sure of his actual vision for a post-Taliban Afghanistan but I have extracted from his speeches and writings. He was a dedicated fighter and I find it really unlikely he would return to his metaphorical plow and would want to lead a new Afghanistan primarily to unify the country and end factional and tribal infighting that he saw as the reason other countries kept meddling with Afghanistan
[2] This is basically what OTL Omar did, there is little evidence that post-invasion he had a direct role in the guerilla war and he may have been willing to disband the movement if reassured of his own safety, separate Taliban leaders did at times offer power-sharing agreements but when it comes to the Taliban you should always consider they are being totally disingenuous. Time will tell ITTL.
Wow, just wow, glory to Afghanistan, I hope in TTL 2023, Afghanistan would be a democratic, stable, prosperity and good security state.
OTL, al qaeda destroyed the Afghanistan thoroughly, started from the Sep 9 2001...
OTL, al qaeda destroyed the Afghanistan thoroughly, started from the Sep 9 2001...
I see Afghanistan's pulling a Bulgaria ITTL: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Simeon_Saxe-Coburg-Gotha
some suggestions :
1. Make Jackie Chan's Nosebleed come true
2. Make more movies which not only OTL unrealized project but make by your own, like Something Crooked or The last bridge
3. Hoping that I can see world trade center again, in pop culture
4. Fate of YouTube
5. You've done a magnificent work
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I'd like to see some pre-production notes on the development of the MCU.
I honestly can't think of any suggestions, Iwanh. However, I do wish you good luck with the pop culture update.
I forget if there has been the dot-com bubble yet? Plus the rise of social media networks and such.
The dot-com bubble already popped back in early 2000. We've got up to 2005 in the timeline so far and assuming social media sites like Facebook, Twitter and Myspace still come into existence, they'd still be just entering the mainstream by this point.
Though American culture would be pretty dominant, i would like to see some Culture changes in the rest of the world (Eurovision, bollywood , etc.)