Geronimo : What if Osama Bin Laden was killed prior to 9/11?
- Thread starter Iwanh
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There’s a reason he made Qusay his heir and stuck to his guns on it, let’s leave it at that
The main change ITTL is with less U.S. aid, terror and the economy are worse. Filipino politics is fascinating and complex so apologies for any obvious errors,
One difference here is there is no Operation Enduring Freedom - Philippines. IOTL, began in January 2002. Here, it may begin in January 2005 because there is still the Abu Sayaff and J.I. to deal with.
At least it won't be Poe who would have been convinced by the silver venom of the Marcoses, and his deputy would be far more discriminating towards that vile clan.
The stability and integrity of the Republic is now much more of a question mark ITTL, however; for all her faults - damning enough ti even personally see her as somewhat overrated in hindsight - she still consolidated the dedicated and unambiguous support of the military behind the government by effectively withstanding and even preempting coups.
The 2010 sure will be an interesting one, and I'm sure that - with everyone's perceptions of each others' integrity fractured across the board - also one that has so much opportunity for the Marcoses to bedevil their way in.
I would just hope that Legarda would be a strong president, but I somewhat doubt it.
And god, oh god; I wonder how the Strong Republic Nautical Highway will be planned at the nat'l level ITTL.
Perhaps - just perhaps - it will push Arroyo into the anti-Marcos camp come the 2010's, to much elation by the more technocratically-inclined people. She would have likely sought to vindicate her own name, becoming a Hillary Clintonesque figure, perhaps?
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It has my vote for a Turtledove award as well. This is a pretty good timeline. Where on the thread do users vote for these kind of things by the way?
There’ll be a formal Turtledove voting process next month for nominations and then votes
??? IOTL Kuchma planned the establishment of a parliamentary republic and the prime minister post for himself after 2004 election. This is his draft constitutional amendment https://w1.c1.rada.gov.ua/pls/zweb2/webproc4_1?pf3511=15881
To get better results, Yanukovych needs to scare swing voters less about "fascist Yushchenko" because that doesn't work outside of his core electorate. More economic populism and self-credit for the Kuchma's second term economic growth is needed.
The constitutional reform that IOTL was a compromise between Kuchma and the opposition will be ITTL because the opposition is interested in weakening President Yanukovych.
On my lunch break at work. I imagined Uday going around to different countries across the world that have poor relations with the US like North Korea and Venezuela in order to talk about how his father survived Bush's attempts to overthrow him. If the author's ok with it, I can made a side segment where he makes a speech about how America can be resisted.
Really interesting developments. Apart from continued military cooperation (especially the An-70 transport and the fourth Slava-class cruiser "Ukraina" transfer to Russia), I forsee two things in the short to medium term (one very likely and the other fifty-fifty):
1. continued economic integration with the East with the signing of the "Treaty of the Commission of the Customs Union" and the "Treaty of the Establishment of the integrated Customs Territory and Creation of the Customs Union" in 2007 together with Belarus, Russia and Kazakhstan. Closer military relations with China too (mainly radars and advanced jet engines);
2. joining the CSTO in around 2006 (like OTL Uzbekistan and maybe also in TTL if it didn't join directly in 2004 to safeguard itself against the Talibans) or at least an observer status in the organization like OTL Serbia.
The Ukrainian security apparatus would be significantly strengthened and the opposition quietly dealt with. If Euromaidan happens in TTL 2010s it will very likely be handled in a way similar to the OTL 2022 Kazakhstan protests with the deployment of Russian or CSTO troops inside Ukraine.
Really hoping for a quick stabilization for TTL Afghanistan
I doubt Uday would be willing to leave the country ITTL anymore both out of fear of assassination and his father wouldn't allow it
Point taken. Do you think he'll be allowed to interact with foreign diplomats or would he be forbidden to go near them?
Uday with his antics in Iraq has made a LOT of enemies and it's sure bet that many of the next of kin of his many victims (Especially the women he raped) would jump at the chance to get even with him if he ever set foot outside of Iraq.
As a Hussein unless it's his father he is untouchable, so he could easily force his way into diplomatic meetings.