Geronimo : What if Osama Bin Laden was killed prior to 9/11?

Following this, as in my simplistic worldview 9/11 was the tipping point that wrecked the End of History once and for all. One wonders if the subprime mortgage house of cards and the economic devastation of 2008 would have gone differently had the U.S. not been preoccupied with the War on Terror for seven years. Certainly different leadership could lead to different policies.
 
This is excellent. The late 90s are a really unexplored canvas for a TL; obviously overshadowed by the Soviet collapse a few years earlier and then all the tragedy post-2001. Really forgotten but interesting times and certainly fertile ground for some fine work like you’re doing here. Eagerly watched!
 
This is excellent. The late 90s are a really unexplored canvas for a TL; obviously overshadowed by the Soviet collapse a few years earlier and then all the tragedy post-2001. Really forgotten but interesting times and certainly fertile ground for some fine work like you’re doing here. Eagerly watched!
Thank you very much.
 
Part 5: The New Millennium
Part V

The New Millennium


Islamic extremists viewed the Hashemite Kingdom of Jordan with special contempt. They saw it as a puppet of Judaeo-American forces. It had betrayed Muslims by reaching peace with Israel and expelling Hamas and attracted significant hate from Palestinian and Islamic militants because of it.

Throughout 1999 intelligence agencies across the world braced themselves for terrorist attacks on par with the African embassy in retaliation for Bin Laden's death and continued monitoring Al-Qaeda and its affiliates. However, it seemed that despite reports of larger numbers of volunteers the Jihadist movement had frayed significantly and would require a lot more effort and manhours into investigating them; time and money agencies and nations weren’t willing to apply. It allowed Al-Qaeda affiliates to slip under the net, such was the error made by Jordanian security forces in 1999.[1]

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Children dressed as angels in Jordan on New Year's eve 1999

At approximately 23:51 as crowds gathered in celebration of the new millennium, a truck carrying thousands of pounds of explosives detonated just outside the fully booked Radisson SAS Hotel in Amman Jordan[2] .2 Minutes later a suicide bomber detonated himself at a Christian service being given at Mount Nebo the supposed site of Moses’s burial, followed swiftly by gunfire from 2 attackers. Again at approximately the same time a 2nd suicide bomb was detonated amongst tourists at Al-Maghtas the supposed site of Jesus’s baptism on the eastern bank of the Jordan River that separates Jordan and Israel also followed by gunfire from another 2 attackers. Finally, 10 minutes later just as the new millennium ticked over, gunfire broke out at the 'King Hussein bridge' a border crossing between Jordan and Israel. The gunfire was aimed at tour busses waiting in line following the first reports of the attacks.

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[3]
Left to right. Raddison SAS, Mt Nebo, Ak-Naghtas and the King Hussein bridge
Jordanian police and armed forces responded, the military was already present at the Jordan river and neutralized the 2 shooters within minutes. However, border police at the King Hussein bridge were slower, insisting on waiting for regular infantry to arrive (police stated that they were not able to leave their post out of concern it was a diversion) when the mechanized military did arrive 15 minutes later, the shooters were gunned down quickly as they stood in the middle of the road. The attack at Mt Nebo was harder to respond to, Jordanian forces were unable to coordinate a response in time, due to the terrain and the general confusion, allowing the 2 attackers to flee the scene in a car, they attempted to drive northwest (potentially to join the shooting underway at the Abdulla bridge) but were stopped by security forces who killed them when they tried to rush a police cordon.

By 30 past midnight, the 1st of January 2000, the attacks had concluded, and the enormity of the tragedy began to be calculated. The Radisson bombing dealt the greatest blow, the truck detonated in the parking lot, on the north side of the 14-story fully booked-out hotel; building (nearly 1000 people combining guests and employees were inside at the time). The explosion partially collapsed its north side destroying the tightly packed, bar and restaurant within seconds (where most of the deaths occurred) and shattered glass and the damaged cars in the vicinity all leading to the death of 273 people and injuring over 1400 others (though it took days of digging to know this). Examining the bombing revealed that the hotel likely would have collapsed if the bomb detonated even a few feet closer resulting in the deaths of hundreds more.[4]

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[5]
Raddison bombing aftermath
The bombings and shootings at Mt Nebo and the Jordan river led to 14 and 6 more deaths and 3 were killed at the Abdullah bridge. Bringing the total casualties to 296 dead including the perpetrators (3 at Mt Nebo, 2 at Al-Maghtas, and 2 at the border) 303 deaths occurred in the Jordan Millennium attacks. 166 of the (non-attacker) deaths were Jordanian the other 130 were foreign tourists including 34 Palestinians 28 Americans, 22 Iraqis, 15 Israelis, and 5 Germans the remaining deaths came from a wide range of tourists including Britons, Italians, Egyptians, Spanish, Syrians, Saudis, and Indians.

It was the bloodiest day in Jordan since the 1970 civil war and the targeting of tourists brought the world together in mutual condemnation and mourning. King Abdullah II who had only ascended to the throne in February gave an address that condemned the attacks and vowed to “pursue these terrorists and any who aide them; we will reach them wherever they are, pull them from their lairs and submit them to justice.”. Many nations gave similar messages including Russia's new President Vladimir Putin who condemned the “criminal acts”.
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King Abdullah II
The attacks affected the world's millennium celebrations as western Europe and the Americas had yet to experience the new year. In Britain, celebrations were abruptly canceled following a threat to attack the specially constructed Millennium dome (later deemed a hoax)[6] but it didn’t stop thousands from pouring into the streets to celebrate and witness the fireworks.

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London millennium fireworks

In the United States, President Clinton paused a millennium dinner at the Whitehouse to condemn the attacks as “Cowardly attacks against those of all faiths who were joined together in celebration for the New Year” and pledged to work with the King and the Jordanian people “In the ongoing battle against terrorism”. He and the countries mayors undertook vast police operations, in major cities primarily, Washington DC and New York to search for possible plots, and a large police presence was sent out, the government issued warnings regarding suspicious packages and vehicles but ultimately celebrations went ahead, in spite of the attacks in Jordan. Agent O’Neil took personal command over New York overlooking times square but no plots were revealed stateside[7] (other attacks that were deemed to merely coincide with the date were clashes between Lebanese militants and the Lebanon army, and a hostage crisis in India that ended peacefully).

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Bill Clinton speaks following Jordan attacks

The nations immediately investigated any and all perpetrators but Jordan believed they knew exactly who was behind the attack, Jordanian radical Abu-Musab Al-Zarqawi. Zarqawi had been released from prison in a general amnesty only a few months prior and quickly returned to fomenting terror. An immediate manhunt was underway, and Zarqawi quickly ascended to become the world's most wanted terrorist, but he was nowhere to be seen and Jordanian officials stated that he had left for Pakistan a few days before the attacks took place.

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Artists impression of Al-Zarqawi

In the days that followed Jordanian and American authorities investigated and made arrests. They found that the attackers were mostly Jordanian and Palestinian and besides Zarqawi, they held only tertiary connections to Al-Qaeda. Amman went under lockdown as they searched for more conspirators and prevent more attacks, Jordanian authorities arrested dozens including an American, Raed Hijazi accused of planting and detonating the truck bomb outside the Radisson. The quick arrests were attributed to Jordanian intelligence already monitoring members of the group [8], they were supposedly in the preparation for more attacks focused on Jordanian airports. Richard Clarke cheif of counter-terrorism on the National-Security-Council described it as the next step for terrorism “this is the new era for Islamic terrorism, we’ve got to learn from this”. The nature of the attack paralyzed the White House, it had little ability to respond as it had with the embassy attack. It had no information on Zarqawi they didn’t even know how many legs he had[9]. All it could do was fly the victim’s home and memorialize the dead.

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A rare double headline day for the New York Times, Jan 1st, 2000


[1] The Jordanian plot was thwarted IOTL due to Al-Qaida’s participation, as Jordon monitored phone calls of Abu-Zubaydah. ITTL Al-Qaida leadership has no role in the plot.
[2] The details of the real plot are hazy but truck bombs were certainly a common tactic of terror groups in this era.
[3] All OTL targets
[4] I’ve based the details of this attack on the Oklahoma City bombing
[5] Picture from the Khobar Towers bombing
[6] As if the Millennium Dome couldn’t have been a worse fiasco
[7] There was a plot to attack LAX that is butterflied
[8] This is likely what was happening IOTL, but Jordanian authorities are unable to pin down the timing and the danger of the group.
[9] The CIA had conflicting facts about Zarqawi forever including this one.
 
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Part 6: 2000
Part VI

2000


As the world reeled from the Jordanian Millennium Attacks, the Clinton administration struggled to respond. More Americans had been killed than in the embassy attacks, but the White House held far fewer options. Zarqawi was in the wind, with no known location, or accomplices, the best they had, was that he had left for Pakistan. The Pakistani government was incredibly reluctant to provide the U.S. with any aid, but it was likely that by now he had already moved to Afghanistan. It meant that striking him directly was, for now impossible. His remaining network in Jordan as far as investigations showed was quickly bundled up by the local and state police and the arrest of the American Hijazi (pinned as the bomb maker and chief co-conspirator) provided some cover for the White House but many pushed for further action. Zarqawi’s tenuous Al-Qaida connections, from his time in the Soviet-Afghan war, pushed CIA officials to get Clinton to back another round of strikes aimed at Al-Qaida but Clinton wanted confirmation of their involvement first, which neither the CIA nor FBI was able to find.[1]

The Jordan attacks punctuated the new era of Jihad after the death of Bin-Laden. Zarqawi was now the new face of Islamic terror, and he used his newfound fame to grow his own organisation Jama'at al-Tawhid wal-Jihad or simply Jama’at, aimed at overthrowing the Jordanian monarchy prior to the attack, it now drastically expanded in scope and unlike Atef or Zawahiri he embraced the position and fame and presented a more brutal view of the Islamic Jihad. Jama’at members and Zarqawi were radical Sunnis who saw all other sects of Islam as heresy, making them legitimate targets. It saw the path to a new middle east as a conquest it viewed the Taliban, Al Qaida, and Al-Jihad as moderates. His ultra-radical vision and the devastation of the Jordan attacks created an effective propaganda machine for Jama’at going forward.

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President Clinton and King Abdullah II speak on the US-Jordanian anti-terror efforts

The 2nd Chechen war morphed considerably through 2000, as Russian forces step by step dislodged the Chechen fighters from the countryside leaving only the mountainous south and the capital Grozny. The separatists/freedom fighters shifted tactics, away from open fighting toward guerrilla warfare with the only clear objective to raise Russian casualties. Casualties indeed grew, in the month of January, the Russian casualty rate doubled, as convoys and patrols were attacked and helicopters were downed. In February, Russian forces seized hold of Grozny but in its afterburn, the Mujahidin showed their hand embracing the use of suicide bombings to increase the Russian deaths, though public knowledge of the rising cost was severely restricted by the Russian government and media.[2] The Russians capitalised on the capture of Grozny by appointing a Chechen defector Akhmad Kadyrov head of the transitional government in Chechnya.

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Chechen suicide truck bombing aftermath

Al-Jihad and Zawahiri hoped to use the war to train fighters and to boost its image in the Islamic world, his tactic was semi-successful. The conflict, especially in its early conventional stages, was unkind to the volunteers', hundreds were captured or killed in the fall of Grozny but the success came from Al-Jihad’s altered image. The Jordan attacks took western eyes and attention away from Zawahiri, and the public perception of the Chechen conflict tended to paint the group as radical freedom fighters fighting the oppression and brutality of the Russians. Zawahiri was able to leverage this perception to build relations with other (less radical) Islamic groups and gain access to funding and additional membership (so long as Zawahiri remained out of sight). The prime example of Al-Jihad’s change in fortunes was its unusual inroads into the supposed secular Ba’athist Iraq.

Saddam Hussein following the Gulf War and Kurdish uprisings pursued a faith campaign that involved him courting Islamists in order to both attract radical fighters to his cause and shore up support for him nationally. The campaign involved altering the flag to display God Is Great, the creation of a Quran written in his own blood and adjusting the nation's policies in a more conservative, theocratic direction. Saddam had been especially untrustworthy of Bin Laden and other Al-Qaida operatives but Saddam (just like leaders in Sudan, Afghanistan, and Yemen) believed that after Bin Laden's death, he could control the radicals in Al-Jihad, and should it become necessary he would simply root them out. Saddam (over the heads of his advisors) entered the Islamist fray, hoping to use the movement for his benefit. Zawahiri and Saddam (who had met once in 1993) supposedly entered into an informal agreement that began to open up Iraq as a pseudo-safe haven (though no training or funding was provided by the regime) in return for non-interference and aiding the regime's religious image in return where the two groups objectives overlapped it would lend the other support. Released CIA reports described the relationship akin to that of rival mob bosses, they would cooperate where and when it was required though they remained adversaries. [3]

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Iraqi propaganda depicting Saddam as a committed Muslim, as part of the faith campaign

The attacks in Jordan, despite the 28 dead Americans had little effect on the nation’s politics. When questioned, issues of defence and terrorism were only most important to 5% of voters, far behind economic or social issues.[4] No candidates felt comfortable politicising the issue of terror. The primaries were mostly unremarkable for the Democratic Party, Vice President Al Gore rolled over his only other primary opponent Senator Bill Bradley winning every state in the process. And while the Republicans had the potential for a battle, it slimmed down when the Governor of Texas, George W Bush (son of former president George H W Bush) was able to rally the party bosses, allowing him to dominate the polls and fundraising. His strongest competitor, Arizona Senator John McCain ran a strong race able to appeal to moderates and independence, winning him New Hampshire. But the Bush team fought hard in South Carolina to stall McCain’s momentum, the race got dirty, accusations of McCain fathering a child out of wedlock, being a homosexual or even a “Manchurian candidate” (alluding to McCains time as a prisoner of war in North Vietnam) were raised to aid Bush's campaign. It worked, Bush won the state and wrapped up the Republican nomination neatly with little further issue.

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Democratic candidate Al Gore (left) and Republican candidate George Bush (right)
The general election campaign also focused on domestic issues, though at times the Republicans took swipes at the Clinton administration's foreign affairs claiming that policies regarding Somalia, Sudan and Afghanistan would be different under a Bush administering little was substantival promised. The closest terror came to a public issue was late in the campaign when Bush's Vice Presidential candidate former Secretary of Defence Dick Cheney said that “Those kinds of attacks would not occur if George W Bush were president”. Even in the debates terrorism failed to be brought up once. The polls predicted a tight race with Bush and Gore bouncing back and forth often within the margin of error.

Unlike the previous 2 elections, there was no strong third-party candidate, Ross Perot’s Reform Party had split and what remained had been taken over by the radical right. The strongest third-party candidate was Ralph Nader of the progressive green party which attracted a decent sum of support occasionally polling above 5 per cent. Nader declared that the two candidates Gore and Bush were too similar, calling them 'Tweedledee' and 'Tweedledum' in a large rally in Maddison Square Garden where Nader criticised U.S. Foreign policy in Iraq, and the Al-Shifa strike alongside a red carpets worth of celebrities.

As the results of the 2000 US election came in on November 7th, the election was closer than anybody could have predicted. In terms of the popular vote, Gore was in the lead but the electoral college held the final say. By the end of the night, three states were left uncalled Wisconsin, Oregon, and Florida but regardless of the others Florida would decide the election. Finally, late on November 7th, the networks called it for Gore. Only three hours later, to retract the call and branded the state once again as undecided. 4 hours later the networks called it for Bush which prompted Gore to privately phone his concession, however, only 2 hours after that call, the reporters again retracted the previous declaration and placed it back again into the undecided column. Bush had a lead of just over 2000 votes but as the final ballots came in it dwindled and dwindled and dwindled. Gore retracted his concession and Americans awoke unsure who the next president would be and remained unsure for a while.

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Chicago Sun-Times releases 4 separate headlines in the immediate aftermath of the 2000 election.
Bush held the majority by the slimmest of margins only (823) votes enough to trigger a recount, the automatic machine recount reduced Bush’s margin to 302. Both campaigns hired legal aid to help their fights. Gore’s team pushed for manual recounts in specific precincts while Bush fought against any recounts, but time was an important factor. State law gave them only a few days to certify recounted results which would be impossible to do in a manual recount, so Gore sued to extend. While the Bush team sued against the procedure as a violation of the 14th amendment which guaranteed equal protection under the law and viewed a partial recount as illegal.

The recount was heavily disputed and drew most media attention as all through November, ballots were individually litigated. Republican staffers organised an effective riot at a Florida recount facility when hundreds of people wearing corporate attire violently attempted to force their way into the building and a few were injured. The Brooks Brothers riot organised by Republicans succeeded in stopping the recount in the precinct as the deadline made it impossible to complete.

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(Left) an inspection of ballots (Right) the so-called Brooks Brothers riot

An In-depth analysis found many issues with the election in Florida, confusing ballots, improperly sent overseas ballots and all manner of incomplete ballots were scrutinised. Many Democrats viewed the actions of Florida Republicans as a deliberate effort to hand Bush the presidency the governor was Jeb Bush the candidate’s brother and the Florida Secretary of State Katherine Harris (in charge of submitting the states election certification) was co-chair of the Bush campaign in Florida, who despite the incomplete recounts certified the Florida election with Bush in the lead by only a 393 vote lead. The Florida supreme court (comprised mostly of Democrats) on December 8th ruled for a full recount of all non-machine ballots a long process. But the next day, the Supreme Court (comprised mostly of Republicans) halted all recounts citing 'irreparable harm', and the possibility of a 'needless cloud' over Bush. Following oral arguments, the court released its decision, a 5-4 partisan majority in favour of halting the recount citing that it would be impossible to finish a recount in the established timeframe. It meant that the original certification would stand, and Bush would win the state and the election. Many derided the Supreme Court decision as partisan. TV Host Jon Stewart's comedic Daily Show mocked the ruling in his 'Indecision 2000' special “It’s official Bush has won Florida by a 5 to 4 majority”.[5]

Gore conceded the election in a public speech on December 12th "for the sake of our unity as a people and the strength of our democracy, I offer my concession.” Becoming the fourth candidate to lose a Presidential election despite winning the popular vote and the first since 1888. President-Elect Bush spoke as well “The President of the United States is the President of every single American, of every race and every background. Whether you voted for me or not, I will do my best to serve your interests, and I will work to earn your respect. Thank you and good night. May God bless America.”

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Vice President Al Gore concedes the 2000 election

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2000 Election WikiBox

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George W Bush, the 43rd President of the United States


[1] This is essentially what Clinton's reaction was to the USS Cole bombing (averted in TTL) and there the US had way more reasons to point the blame at Al-Qaeda. I see no reason why Clinton would have a different reaction.
[2] The increased number of volunteers from hundreds to thousands boosts Russian casualties and resistance cohesion but is not enough to turn back the Russians.
[3] This is a change, the Bush administration's claims about Saddam's Al-Qaeda connections are overhyped and mostly false, to say the least. But it's clear that Saddam was totally willing to drop the path of secularism so long as it kept him in charge. Here Saddam spies an opportunity to bolster his own regime and image while still holding the option to cut them all loose.
[4] A true statistic
[5]The election pretty much goes OTL with a slightly butterflied final vote count, as I previously mentioned anything could have altered the 2000 election but given how little time Americans had to learn the name Bin Laden, his death means little to them and is overshadowed by the deadlier Jordan attacks and Monika Lewinsky meaning Americans feel mostly the same in terms of terror and defence. Plus I think the US’s actions would end up attracting more support to Nader than Gore. Anyway, just thought I should explain my reasoning, see you next time.
 
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President Bush is a known quality, so I understand from a storytelling perspective it's better to have the narrative follow familiar characters in an unfamiliar setting, than to multiply the counterfactual with a different administration in power.
 
bummer, i was hoping for a Gore victory. still a great timeline, waiting to see what changes here.
Same. That said, a well-done "Bush '00 but No 9/11" TL is a rare creature, so I'm curious if this will go in that direction.
Same here. I was thinking the butterflies would case Gore to win. Guess I was wrong.
President Bush is a known quality, so I understand from a storytelling perspective it's better to have the narrative follow familiar characters in an unfamiliar setting, than to multiply the counterfactual with a different administration in power.
I think Bush would be a domestic-issue president. With 9/11 being butterflied away that is, unless an equivalent attack would occur some point in the 21st century. All remains to be seen if Bush Jr. would be a one-termer like his father or not.
No 9/11, but a more terrorist-adjacent Saddam is a particularly fun knuckleball to throw.
Saddam better not screw around with the U.S. or else there will be an Iraq Invasion akin to our TL.
 
I think Bush would be a domestic-issue president. With 9/11 being butterflied away that is, unless an equivalent attack would occur some point in the 21st century. All remains to be seen if Bush Jr. would be a one-termer like his father or not.

It's high time that this forum got some contemporary reexamination of that era. Might you dip into the culture wars that brewed under that Republican administration, forgotten because of the fiery insanity of our previous one? Even without the War on Terror/Iraq being the dividing factor, Bush was still known as a rock-solid Evangelical, back when that was the liberal bugbear. People these days have forgotten the pre-Obergefell country, and the retrospectively quaint stuff that happened then like Ashcroft covering the statue of the Spirit of Justice's exposed breasts.

The inflammatory stuff aside, there's Katrina, immigration reform, Medicare Part D, privatizing Social Security, Enron, and so on. Really curious if foreign policy might still be affected wrt Russia and China.
 
It's high time that this forum got some contemporary reexamination of that era. Might you dip into the culture wars that brewed under that Republican administration, forgotten because of the fiery insanity of our previous one? Even without the War on Terror/Iraq being the dividing factor, Bush was still known as a rock-solid Evangelical, back when that was the liberal bugbear. People these days have forgotten the pre-Obergefell country, and the retrospectively quaint stuff that happened then like Ashcroft covering the statue of the Spirit of Justice's exposed breasts.

The inflammatory stuff aside, there's Katrina, immigration reform, Medicare Part D, privatizing Social Security, Enron, and so on. Really curious if foreign policy might still be affected wrt Russia and China.
As I recall, Bush planned to make a more open-ended commitment to a Palestinian state (rather than saying he supported the concept but not until the Palestinians elected their own leadership) in fall 2001, but that got quietly scuttled due to 9/11.
 
You think there wouldn't be any 9/11 to avenge Laden?
The title is what if Osama Bin Laden was killed "BEFORE 9/11"
Implying that somebody else did the 9/11 to avenge Laden.
who says it would be successful? these things get screwed up all the time. also let's assume there shall be one (which is the most likely outcome) it might not be the ''9/11'' we all know, which leads to an entirely different outcome. say a 10/12 attack that has a suicide bomber blow up at Ellis Island and leads the US to attack Sudan for example (in my opinion a US invasion of Sudan is an underexplored subject in alt history)
 
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who says it would be successful? these things get screwd up all the time. also let's assume there shall be one (which is the most likely outcome) it might not be the ''9/11'' we all know, which leads to an entirely different outcome. say a 10/12 attack that has a suicide bomber blow up at Elis Island and leads the US to attack Sudan for example (in my opinion a US invasion of Sudan is an underexplored subject in alt histor)
There's one timeline where the U.S. invades Sudan alongside a reformed USSR. It's from the timeline known as New Union.

The premise is the New Union Treaty gets signed and the USSR reforms itself as the Union of Soviet Sovereign Republics. It is akin to the Russian Federation in terms of being a semi-federal constitutional republic while retaining the red banner for symbolic purposes. Since the USSR does not collapse, the civil war in Afghanistan ends in 1995 with the Soviets mediating the return of the monarchy. This butterflies the rise of the Taliban (https://althistory.fandom.com/wiki/Differences_(New_Union)#Afghanistan).

Because of this, OBL instead choses to hide in Sudan. Come by 9/11 (which is a carbon copy of OTL), Omar al-Bahir refuses to handover Bin Laden. So the U.S., NATO, the USSR, and the CTSO invade Sudan and topple Al-Bashir. Bin Laden is captured.
 

SOAWWIISoldier

Monthly Donor
The last sentence should be the 20th not the 19th century.

Part IV
Moving Forward


The western world moved past terror following the death of Bin Laden. In the United States, the news cycle moved quickly and all eyes returned to the Lewinsky affair. However, operation infinite reach would not be the last airstrike campaign of the Clinton presidency.[1]

CIA members and what remained of the Bin Laden station desk pressed for further strikes citing the death of Bin Laden as proof of their effectiveness (while also bracing for some form of retaliation). Station chief Scheuer wanted to strike all known al-Qaeda training bases and its economic assets. However, Clinton was satisfied that Al-Qaeda was no longer a significant threat and was keen not to make another Al-Shifa level error or further erode US-Arab relations. Instead, the US focused on its more traditional enemies chief among them Saddam Hussein’s Iraq.

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President and Prime Minister of Iraq Saddam Hussein

1998 was also a key year for US-Iraq relations. In October the US passed the Iraq Liberation Act which defined US policy in Iraq to “support efforts to remove the regime headed by Saddam Hussein from power”. The United States and Great Britain launched operation Desert Fox, a 3-day bombing campaign designed to “degrade” Iraq’s ability to produce weapons of mass destruction. The US alleged that the reason for the strikes was Saddam’s non-cooperation with U.N weapons inspectors however most analysts viewed the explanation incomplete at best and attributed the action more to the liberation policy with the intention to isolate and destabilise the regime when combined as well as the no-fly zones imposed by the US and Britain. After a combined 600 missiles struck Iraq both sides declared victory, Saddam emerged in military fatigues to say that "God rewarded (the Iraqi people) and delighted your hearts with the crown of victory,” Meanwhile prime minister Blair said that both the US and Britain were "ready to strike again”

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Saddam Hussein (Left) Tony Blair (Centre) Bill Clinton (Right), each declared the victory following the strikes conclusion.

Returning to terror, the turning of the millennium was a key moment for the emirs who each vied for pre-eminence in the Jihadist world. Atef and Zawahiri sought to outshine the other and attract more devotees to their cause. Zawahiri’s Al-Jihad was visibly first to act, its ideology was militant and he sought to grow the movement by backing the Islamic revolution. He hoped to lead the war and emerge the true successor by returning Al-Qaeda to its origins in the mujahidin, to prepare fighters for the coming uprisings and the perfect opportunity arose at the dawn of the millennium in the Chechen Republic of Ichkeria.

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Chechen Republic of Ichkeria (Green)

Following victory in the first Chechen war, the Chechen republic won effective independence. however it was only recognised by Taliban-ruled Afghanistan. The country was horrifically unstable and political/gang violence was especially common. Disagreement between radical Islamists and nationalists paralysed it. 3 years after its independence Ibn al-Khattab a Saudi-born leader of the Chechen mujahadeen and Shamil Basayev a popular Chechen General directed the invasion into neighbouring Dagestan. Combined with the bombing of apartment buildings in Moscow that killed over 300 actions supposedly carried out by Khattab[2]. President Yeltsin and the new prime minister Vladimir Putin began the second Chechen war in August 1999.

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Left Picture : Prime Minister Putin (Left) President Yeltsin (Right)
Right Picture: Mujahadeen leader al-Khattab (left) Chechen general Basayev (right)

Khattab (and to a lesser extent Basayev) held links to Al-Qaeda having fought in the Soviet-Afghan war and helped funnel hundreds of fighters in and out of Afghanistan for training. He also held personal relations with Al-Jihad leaders which allowed al-Zawahiri saw the perfect opportunity to present himself as the new Bin Laden by aiding another fight against the Russians from the mountains that happened to be the other side of the Caspian Sea.[3] Unlike Bin Laden, Zawahiri operated in complete secrecy and worked entirely through deputies including his brother through them he issued directives that endorsed fighters to go to Chechnya it was echoed by jihadist media that he and not Atef held control over.

His directives resulted in an influx of volunteers from across the Muslim world, for instance, Abu Zaid a Kuwait actor, Melfi Al Harbi a Jordanian combat pilot, and Mohammed Atta an Egyptian student studying in Germany.[4]

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Chechen Mujuhadin Volunteers Kuwait, Harbi and Atta

Through 99 the war in Chechnya was especially brutal, as Russian forces used overwhelming air power to pummel the pseudo-state for a month before the land phase began in October. Western coverage leaned towards sympathy for the defenders as Chechen civilians were bombed in droves, including missile attacks on the capital Grozny. President Clinton warned that Russia risked isolation and it would “pay a heavy price” for its tactics, equating Russian forces tactics with that of Milosevic’s Yugoslavia. However, there was no threat to bomb Russian forces as Yeltsin made clear that Russia was still a nuclear power. By December Russian forces laid siege to Grozny so heavily, it would later be dubbed “the most destroyed city on earth”.

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Grozny during the siege

It took time for the Mujahadin fighters to arrive but by December they joined the battle in the hundreds and began contributing to the war. Due to heavy Russian censorship, it is difficult to determine exact casualties but as the warriors began to resort to more and more vicious guerrilla/insurgent tactics Russian deaths ballooned as Groznyy’s siege continued Basayev and Khattab pledged to begin “kamikaze” attacks against Russians including civilians as legitimate targets. For Zawahiri, the move was successful Al-Jihad gained more support and funding, and was deemed less of a threat by the nations that it relied on for safe harbour for Afghanistan, Yemen, Sudan, Somalia, and Pakistan.

Atef’s Al-Qaeda however chose to go the traditional route as feared by some US law enforcement, it intended on following up on commitments made after Bin Laden's death, to strike back at the United States. Atef ran through potential targets, more US embassies or military bases. A target heavily considered was the US’s fifth fleet based in the Arabian sea (favoured by Atef due to their use in Infinite Reach), one plan was to create dozens of kamikaze ships and simultaneously attack US vessels however Al-Qaeda had little in the way of maritime intelligence[5]. Atef insisted on thinking big, and it attracted the support of the committed enemies of the United States, the most important being Khalid Sheik Mohammed one of the so-called “independent terrorists” [6] who had an idea Atef was interested in, he called it the planes operation.

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Khalid Sheik Mohammed

The final day of terror in the 19th century was unleashed however with little input from either Al-Qaeda or Al-Jihad. On December 31st, 1999, 3 bombs detonated across the Kingdom of Jordan...



[1] ITTL the bombing in Yugoslavia and Kosovo still occurs I just haven’t mentioned it for brevity.
[2] I wonder why this is here.
[3] Zawahiri himself travelled to Chechnya only to be arrested and released Litvenenko alleged he had been a Russian agent in some capacity.
[4] IOTL Atta and the “Hamberg Cell” intended to go to Chechnya only to go to Afghanistan at the last moment. Here they follow through.
[5] The mastermind of the USS Cole bombing al-Nashiri being dead
[6] KSM may or may not have officially joined Al-Qaeda, ITTL he definitely doesn't seeing better opportunities staying indepedent.
 
There's one timeline where the U.S. invades Sudan alongside a reformed USSR. It's from the timeline known as New Union.

The premise is the New Union Treaty gets signed and the USSR reforms itself as the Union of Soviet Sovereign Republics. It is akin to the Russian Federation in terms of being a semi-federal constitutional republic while retaining the red banner for symbolic purposes. Since the USSR does not collapse, the civil war in Afghanistan ends in 1995 with the Soviets mediating the return of the monarchy. This butterflies the rise of the Taliban (https://althistory.fandom.com/wiki/Differences_(New_Union)#Afghanistan).

Because of this, OBL instead choses to hide in Sudan. Come by 9/11 (which is a carbon copy of OTL), Omar al-Bahir refuses to handover Bin Laden. So the U.S., NATO, the USSR, and the CTSO invade Sudan and topple Al-Bashir. Bin Laden is captured.
thanks!
 
who says it would be successful? these things get screwed up all the time. also let's assume there shall be one (which is the most likely outcome) it might not be the ''9/11'' we all know, which leads to an entirely different outcome. say a 10/12 attack that has a suicide bomber blow up at Ellis Island and leads the US to attack Sudan for example (in my opinion a US invasion of Sudan is an underexplored subject in alt history)

Maybe al-Qaeda is no less stochastic or random as any of the (post-)ISIS franchises, far right bogeymen, or random crazies who are the vague threats of the modern day. Yes they had their own network and resources, but maybe killing off OBL and some of their leadership early, before their chance to really do a big strike against the West, might take the wind out of their black sails. Without the charismatic leaders and masterminds, without their spectacular victories for morale, maybe they would just end up another listing in counterterrorist databases, just another shadowy group among many.

I almost wonder if the Overton Window applies to terrorists as well. No 9/11, no one else is emboldened to try to attack airline flights in the same way. No Richard Reid. The idea of such a blatant attack on Americans on their own soil is not normalized. Maybe suicide attacks just in general do not come to the West, they remain a tactic used by desperate insurgents in the Middle East, and in the Sri Lanka Civil War. To American civilians, terrorism remains the province of Tom Clancy technothrillers and Counter-Strike, not a risible threat.

On the other hand, maybe some other plan, a Bojinka or a Christmas Day bomb plot, does come to fruition, and that becomes the new 9/11, setting the tone for future engagements to come.

As I recall, Bush planned to make a more open-ended commitment to a Palestinian state (rather than saying he supported the concept but not until the Palestinians elected their own leadership) in fall 2001, but that got quietly scuttled due to 9/11.

That was also when American Muslims were predominantly Republican voters. Would be interesting to see how that political culture continues without the massive Islamophobia caused by the War on Terror!
 
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