Geronimo : What if Osama Bin Laden was killed prior to 9/11?

World without 9/11 reminds me an interesting possibility, I had read an opinion is without 9/11, American would fall into the second Civil War, because 9/11 united the American people. I don't take that. Because in 1990s and 2000s, there's no any condition for causing the civil war.
I guess that opinion is way too far-fetched. The 90s saw an optimistic future as there was no USSR. There won't be a 2ACW.
Even during the 1960s-70s when the American public was divided over Vietnam and Civil Rights, it didn't even become a civil war.
 
I do wonder how the lack of 9/11 would effect the intelligence community, specifically with respect to its relationship with the news media.
 
I do wonder how the lack of 9/11 would effect the intelligence community, specifically with respect to its relationship with the news media.
I think it would be the same level during the OTL pre-9/11 years. The issue of the Patriot Act and the NSA spying on Americans will probably be toned down.
 
I think it would be the same level during the OTL pre-9/11 years. The issue of the Patriot Act and the NSA spying on Americans will probably be toned down.
I would argue that the intelligence community has gotten much more of a free pass from the press post 9/11 than before. How such manifests itself over time would be rather interesting.
 
Next time

new-orleans-hurricane-katrina-recovery-march-2006.jpg
050509_sc_rhenquist_vsml.jpg
 
Part 54: Reformation
Part LIV

Reformation



NBC A Concert for Hurricane Relief: September 2, 2005

Mike Myers: The landscape of the city has changed dramatically, tragically, and perhaps irreversibly. There is now over 25 feet of water where there was once city streets and thriving neighborhoods.

Kanye West: I hate the way they portray us in the media. You see a black family, it says, "They're looting." You see a white family, it says, "They're looking for food." And, you know, these people have nothing now, and because most of the people are black they had nothing before. And even for me to complain about it, I would be a hypocrite because I've tried to turn away from the TV because it's too hard to watch. I've even been shopping before even giving a donation, so now I'm calling my business manager right now to see what is the biggest amount I can give, and that’s what you and everyone should be doing. I’m going down there, and those are my people down there. So anybody out there that wants to do anything that we can help, with the way America is set to screw over the poor, the black people, to trap them down there. The soldiers and FEMA are doing everything they can but they can’t put buildings back up. And some of the cops down there are tagging people treating us like animals.

Mike Myers: … And subtle, but in many ways even more profoundly devastating, is the lasting damage to the survivors' will to rebuild and remain in the area. The destruction of the spirit of the people of southern Louisiana and Mississippi may end up being the most tragic loss of all.


Kanye West: Thank Jesus for John Edwards!

1682513560727.png

The awkward televised outburst by rapper Kanye West (Right)



80% of all New Orleans structures were damaged, 200,000 homes were destroyed, and 800,000 people evacuated from the region in what amounted to the greatest displacement of Americans in the United States since the Great Dustbowl of the 1930s. Hundreds of lives had been lost and countless more changed forever. The events of the last weeks had opened many eyes to the heart-breaking poverty that millions of their countrymen were subject to, broadcasted daily and hourly onto every screen in the country.

It had shaken many to action, from ordinary Americans and families to nations across the globe willing to provide aid and manpower to the region so greatly in need. The largest relief effort in the history of the American continent unfurled. Americans had donated upwards of 1.5 billion dollars, with hundreds of millions collected by the American Red Cross, the Salvation Army, and the Bush-Clinton Katrina Fund operated by the three ex-Presidents. Each was trying to rapidly bring hot meals, and shelters to the survivors of the disaster, not to mention the dozens of other funds established in Katrina's wake. For weeks, the media was equally flooded with heartfelt appeals for aid, the NFL, NBA, and NHL as well as many other events held auctions, paused play, or performed in dedication and memory of those that lost their lives.

An early sign of the legislative bouts ahead to come, the aid for Hurricane Katrina was not apolitical. Included among the public donations came international support requested by the state department. Practically every country in the world offered something, most pledged cash, and some put boots on the ground. Mexico, Canada, the United Kingdom, France, Singapore, Russia, The Netherlands, and Germany sent some form of military assistance to the region. However, there were more controversial offers, Cuba, Venezuela, North Korea, and Iraq all made offers of aid to the United States, the Cuban offer was very substantial considering the renowned quality of their doctors but all of those offers were firmly refused by the White House in a move some saw as controversial for a President who was trying to “reach out to everyone for support”.

1682513582045.png

(Left to Right) Donated supplies for Katrina survivors, early reconstruction effort, Mexican marines in New Orleans

The political atmosphere had comprised largely bipartisan shows of support for the immediate rescue efforts including a touching moment where Senator Trent Lott, the Mississippi Republican who lost his home in the flood, applauded the President's leadership despite the two being firm ideological adversaries. That unity began to slowly slip, as more Republicans and right-wing pundits pointed toward a perceived failure by the state and local government to adequately prepare for the hurricane or restore order swiftly enough, criticizing the Mayor, Governor, and President for a ‘fundamental lack of law and order in New Orleans’, and were able to point out that Republican-run states like Jeb Bush’s Florida would have fared better “If the Louisiana government wasn’t so riddled with corruption and incompetence and instead someone like Governor Bush was willing to take charge sooner, the situation would have been much better, they wouldn’t have needed to plead to the President” said a columnist for the conservative National Review.

Though the disaster had many heroes, the disaster created a small cadre of villains. A certain brand of Conservative Christian associated the hurricane with a form of divine retribution, Pat Robertson and Jerry Falwell, prominent televangelists were the worst, proud to preach that the city of New Orleans was being punished for the sins of ‘abortion, homosexuality, sodomy, feminism, promiscuity, and liberalism’ Robertson went further predicting a coming apocalypse as America continued to turn away from God. And the lobbying group Focus on the Family was all too happy to point out the similarities with the Biblical flood, it wasn’t uncommon for evangelicals to raise the specter of Sodom and Gomorrah in their sermons, the cities smote by God’s wrath and some politicians were roundly chastised for making similar remarks.

There were still many questions of how a disaster of such magnitude could have happened in the first place, and amidst the calls for aid, people both in and out of elective office asked ahead. Over time more criticism eventually lay at the feet of the Army Corp of Engineers for failures in the construction and maintenance of New Orleans Levees, Mayor Nagin for his lack of leadership before and during the crisis, the New Orleans Police Department for a collapse in discipline and some would argue illegal enforcement of the law, and the dire need to revamp the U.S. response network nationwide. To investigate the events a bipartisan House investigation was set up, the Hurricane Katrina Commission.

1682513601146.png

(Left to Right) Senator Trent Lott breaks down, Governor of Florida Jeb Bush, Televangelist Pat Robertson

Many looked toward the future, and what could be done to reduce the chances of this happening again. As thousands of pictures of the devastation were taken, many both at home and abroad associated the cause of the storm with the growing issue of global warming. “Katrina Should Be a Lesson for the World on the Danger of Global Warming” headlined the German Magazine Der Spiegel. The United States was not a signatory of the Kyoto Protocol, an international treaty designed to limit carbon emissions, and plenty of environmental activists drew the connection between higher temperatures, rising sea levels, greater flooding, and more powerful hurricanes.

President Edwards was more open to climate science than his predecessor (for a start he accepted its existence) but his commitments had been short on specifics, and he was not committed to joining the protocols citing America’s energy dependency and desire to ‘remain competitive’, instead proposing to negotiate a new more equal agreement. The most clear-cut commitment to fight global warming was his support for a cap-and-trade system, but procuring the votes necessary for such a bill would be a lengthy procedure and more immediate legislative needs entered the fray in the meantime.

The Katrina disaster became the focal point for the Edwards administration, and the President frequently returned to the topic and the region in his public speeches and addresses, not just as he promoted disaster relief, and his recovery bill, but as the most tangible symbols of the ‘Two Americas’ the theme he had hinged his Presidential campaign on, and now something that every Americans could relate to either personally or as witnesses.

The President made it clear in his statements, that he backed a large-scale reconstruction package, and the White House made its overtures to Congress about the full breadth of its plan through allies and in a single phrase spun across the news media, ‘on the scale of the New Deal’. Despite the public approval of the rebuilding effort the debate over the Federal role hadn’t been settled yet and the White House’s oft-repeated New Deal remark, echoed in the minds of small government conservatives like a fire bell in the night.

Already large dollar figures were floating around in Washington, 100 billion, 150 billion, 250 billion. But there was a base of firm congressional support for a large relief effort, most prominently from the Louisiana, Mississippi, and Alabama elected officials despite their varying political stripes they agreed “This disaster is a national tragedy” Said Mary Landrieu the Louisiana Senator alongside her gulf counterparts “The number is going to be high, but it will take and unprecedented response to recover from this”. Already the government had sped through legislation to pick up the payments for evacuees' medical costs and pay state and city governments employees in the region but it all stood apart from the final proposition unfurled by the White House and Congress.

1682513613948.png

(Left) Democratic Senators propose Katrina relief (Right) Republican Senators debate Katrina relief

The Gulf Coast Reconstruction and Recovery Authority, a new proposed agency explicitly tasked with overseeing and financing the rebuilding of the region. The plan would entail hiring thousands of workers, engineers, and planners, including hiring as many of the displaced residents as possible to do the actual reconstruction of the region. “Our government must respond in ways that are as good and compassionate as the American people. We can’t just fix the hole in the roof. We need to rebuild the whole foundation,” said President Edwards on the proposal, standing beside the bi-partisan proponents. Modelled after FDR’s Tennessee Valley Authority and the post-WWII Marshall Plan, to “help people help themselves, put people back to work, create good jobs, build affordable housing, schools, hospitals, and infrastructure, and safeguard the region from another storm”.

Edward believed he had the political capital to support his recovery plan, in Katrina’s aftermath his approval rating rose by around 6% putting him briefly back at his post-inaugural popularity of 66%. The public had largely approved of Edward's response to the hurricane and subsequent unrest and only 23% disapproved of his handling of the crisis.

The plan was big, with a hefty initial price tag of 180 billion Dollars, but with the state of the national psyche still in recovery mode, the project had support, the entire congressional Democratic caucus was united and nearly a dozen Senate Republicans were on record supporting a federal led recovery. But many Republicans were quickly off put by the language of the bill, a love letter to the New Deal era. Republicans demanded compromise, freeing contractors from federal regulations, union contracts, and wages, they argued for a speedier, cheaper recovery, or that the cost should be offset by cutting regular spending “There is a lot of pork in the budget” said Senator John Kyl R-Ariz “If Democrats work with us we can rebuild the Gulf Coast without any unnecessary spending.” And Republican House Leader Tom DeLay agreed “We will be glad to sign this, as long as there are offsets,”. Others raised the fears that the bill would require a tax raise “We have heard no specifics for paying for this bill”, said Sen Conrad Burns R-Mont “We owe that to the American taxpayer” Fears were heightened by some Democrats hinting at reversing the Bush tax cuts to pay for it. And especially conservative Republicans proudly put their foot down at the Federal Government's expansion. “We will never see a balanced budget in our lifetime if this President carries on spending like this” Said Chris Edward of the libertarian CATO Institute, Senator Rick Santorum (R-PA) proposed that funding should go toward charities and religious groups rather than the government, and these thinkers and politicians were slowly joined by a growing cadre of outspoken budget hawks “of course Katrina breaks my heart,” said Indiana legislator Mike Pence “but let’s not let it break the banks of our children and grand-children”.

As the parties debated the relief bill, other important government business went on, most importantly, the death of the sitting Chief Justice of the Supreme William Rehnquist after a 33-year-long Supreme Court career. His long career on the court was celebrated by much of the country's political class. Senator Charles E. Schumer of New York, the head of the Judiciary Committee, said the chief justice "served his country with honor, dignity, and distinction for over 30 years," "The imprint of his gavel has been deep," Senator Bill Frist, the minority leader, said in a statement

President Edwards, speaking Sunday Morning at the White House, called Rehnquist a “Justice of dedication, truly committed to the law, who honored this country with his service”. Rehnquist’s tenure had witnessed the court shift toward conservatism as right-leaning justices held a 5-4 majority since the appointment of Clarence Thomas in 1991. But now, with a Democratic President, Rehnquist’s death provided an opportunity for the more Liberal Justices to retake the majority and the political fight rapidly became one of the most important political fights despite the dispute over the Gulf Reconstruction Act.

The President moved to fill the vacancy and from a field of candidates announced his preferred nominee, the Solicitor General and former Dean of Stanford Law School, Kathleen Sullivan (45) to be the first female Chief Justice of the United States.

"Thank you, Mr. President. Thank you very much. I am very grateful for the confidence in me that you've shown by this nomination, and certainly, I am honored by it. I have had a magical reception here, and thank you, Mr. President, for this tremendous honor."

1682513642325.png

(Left to Right) Supreme court justices leave Renquists funeral, Chief Justice Renquist, Edwards nominates Solicitor General Kathleen Sullivan

With the entire court's balance on the line, the political fight quickly consumed much of the oxygen in Washington. Many Democrats applauded Edward's choice of a woman for the highest court in the land, as a ‘trailblazer’ ‘well respected’ and a ‘rock star in legal circles’ and Democrats anticipated a swift confirmation. However, Republicans were rubbed the wrong way, Sullivan was clearly a liberal-leaning choice and by comparison, lightyears to the left of the late Chief Justice Rehnquist, having defended abortion, argued against the role of states in deciding elections, for affirmative action, against the nomination of Robert Bork to the supreme court in 1987 and against sodomy laws in the ’90s.

Through a series of grilling confirmation hearings, Sullivan laid out her most important commitments to her role as chief justice, But she faced tough questions, regarding her qualification considering she had never served as a judge, and answering the embarrassing admission that she had failed to pass the bar exam in California but she defended herself as well as any veteran lawyer could and a litany of her colleagues and peers celebrated her qualifications arguing that any lawyer who argued in front of the Supreme Court was clearly qualified to sit the bench.

After her selection, there was no descent from the Democrats but on the right, it was clear that her confirmation was becoming a test of loyalty, the gun activist group the NRA said they would be using the vote to rank legislators and talk radio host Rush Limbaugh called her ‘political hack’ and ‘raging lesbian’ quickly Republican Senators demanded her confirmation be stalled, former Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich went further calling her an ‘inexperienced liberal activist, unfit to fill Rehnquist’s shoes’. With more Republicans turning the heat up, the threat of a judicial filibuster reared its head. Senators Jeff Sessions R-AL and John Cornyn R-Texas both on the judiciary committee pledged to fight her nomination. As was increasingly common in the Edwards administration the numbers were very tight as even a few Democrats in the heartland were concerned over the scale of the right-wing pushback.

Just as it seemed the lid was fit to bursting in Washington a further bombshell dropped, on the 28th of September 2005 Representative Tom DeLay of Texas, the House Republican leader, the most powerful member of the GOP in Washington was indicted. a Texas grand jury accused him of being part of a criminal conspiracy regarding campaign fundraising.

1682513657365.png

(Left to Right) Kathleen Sullivan confirmation hearings, the mugshot of GOP House Leader Tom Delay, conservative talk radio host Rush Limbaugh

For the last year, DeLay and several associates had been under investigation for misuse of campaign funds. The allegations had followed him since, and now the indictment forced DeLay to step down from his leadership role and came with a potential 2-year prison sentence "I have done nothing wrong," Mr. DeLay said, adding that he had violated "no law, no regulation, no rule of the House." Said Mr. DeLay, speaking on Capitol Hill. The indictment brought an uncomfortable amount of attention to the Republicans during the tense legislative session following Katrina. The tension was compounded by Republican Senate Leader Bill Frist being accused of improper stock dealings. “There is no doubt that this is hurting Republicans' ability to hold this President accountable, to prevent a liberal court takeover and control massive runaway spending of taxpayer money.” Said Republican columnist Bill Kristol

Despite the loud and growing conservative backlash the Rebuilding and Enhancing our Shores Through Organized Relief Efforts and the Guided Usage of Lifesaving Funds Act (RESTORE GULF Act) sailed through Congress backed by a dozen Republican Senators. The bill created the new Gulf Reconstruction & Recovery Authority to be headed by former Labor Secretary Alexis Herman. The agency would work with the affected states of Alabama, Mississippi, and Louisiana and respective local governments to reconstruct and reinforce the decimated areas of the Gulf states, utilizing 180 billion dollars of funding. The bill also created a work program (The Disaster & Emergency Economic Relief Program) to employ displaced Americans in the recovery effort and created The USA Opportunity Corps to organize and fund volunteer recovery efforts. Both programs provided health and childcare benefits as well as college credit or the partial paying of student loans.

With the passage of the RESTORE GULF Act, John Edwards celebrated the tremendous effort taken by Congress, “Thank you for moving swiftly and in a united fashion to approve the creation of these emergency programs, thanks to this we will finally help people, help themselves and each other to get the Gulf firmly back on its feet”.

Alongside the passage of the Act, it was decision time for the Senate regarding Kathleen Sullivans Court confirmation. More and more Republicans, including members of the judiciary committee, were declaring themselves in opposition on various grounds largely related to her supposed ‘inexperience’ or ‘courtroom activism’ but the fight came to its conclusion when the Senate voted 60-40 to end debate, ultimately 7 Republicans. Susan Collins, Lindsay Graham, Judd Gregg, Richard Lugar, Olympia Snow, Arlen Spectre (The Judiciary Committee minority chair), and Lincoln Chafee voted with the Democrats, while two Democrats Zell Miller and Ben Nelson voted against closure, and a similar vote confirmed Kathleen Sullivan as the first female Chief Justice of a very different United States Supreme Court.

1682514689165.png

(Top) President Edwards signs the RESTORE GULF ACT
(Below Left to Right) Logos of the Gulf Reconstriction Authority, Disaster Relief Programme, and Opportunity Corps


1682515042069.png

October 2005, Issue of Newsweek Magazine
On the other side of the country in Sacramento California, the California legislature became the first legislative body in the country to approve of same-sex marriages, for state representative Mark Leno it was a powerful moment in the state’s history “It is about time to do what we know is right, and make sure all California families have protection under the law”, only Massachusetts had legalized same-sex marriage when the courts defined it as legal and the state declined to challenge the decision. All through the summer the issue had been simmering in the background as the California Supreme Court began granting gay couples the same parental rights and many suspected that the court wouldn’t be far behind eliminating the marriage ban. It was a hard-fought fight, and the opposition came out in force "Engaging in social experimentation with our children is not the role of the legislature," said Assemblyman Ray Haynes, a Republican from Southern California. And Republicans were firm that the legislature shouldn’t overturn public opinion, citing the 2000 referendum where 61% voted to limit marriage to between a man and a woman “We cannot betray our constituents and their moral values” said Jay La Suer a San Diego Republican.

Also in the arena was the state’s Governor, the Greek socialite turned politician Arianna Huffington who responded with a typical mix of poise and bombast “It is time to show what leadership can do, fighting for freedom means fighting for freedom for everyone, this is not a left issue or right issue and it is time that we grew a spine on this and stop listening to these man-babies, on the religious bigots these agents of intolerants.”

The bill was signed, marking a major achievement for same-sex civil rights advocates. The largest state in the country with a population of 35 million had legalized gay marriage, doubling the number of people globally who now enjoyed that same right. And escalating the importance of the issue throughout the country. The move also further raised the celebrity of Governor Huffington who lavished the media attention and further built her brand as an unapologetic liberal Californian and was praised by Massachusetts Representative Barney Frank (the first openly gay member of Congress) who proposed an amendment to the constitution that would allow any naturalized American to be eligible for the Presidency nicknamed the Arianna Amendment.

1682513708331.png

(Left) Governor of California Arianna Huffington, (Right) Californians celebrate the legalization of gay marriage


1682513725061.png

Aides to exiled Iraqi cleric arrested
By Anthony Shadid
September 28, 2005​
Two aides to Iraq's most senior Shia cleric, Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani, have been arrested, it emerged today. Mahmoud al-Madaen a representative of Sistani within Iraq has been taken into Iraqi custody along with another unnamed cleric who worked with Sistani.
The Iraqi government has claimed that Sistani’s allies are mounting a campaign to inflame tensions between Iraq’s Sunni and Shia populations. These tensions have emerged since Sistani was barred from re-entering the country in March of this year.
Iraq’s 60% Shia majority has been long oppressed by Saddam Hussein’s regime and Sunni Muslims hold most positions of power in the country, leading exiled Shia clerics have released messages of support of massacred worshipers in the holy city of Najaf, killed while protesting Sistani’s exile.
Sistani has himself appealed for calm saying that revenge could destroy the country, but Saddam’s forces have clamped down harder on Shia communities and they find themselves the frequent victim of his security forces brutality…

Call for an uprising by rebel Iraqi leader
By Jonathan Finer
October 15, 2005
The Iraqi cleric Moqtada al-Sadr, the supposed head of an anti-Saddam Shia militia. Has called for an uprising among the majority Shia population, in the face of growing tensions between the Saddam regime and the religious community.
Moqtadah al-Sadr, a 32-year-old Shiite leader and son of Muhammad al-Sadr the Grand ayatollah of the Shia who was assassinated by Hussein’s government in 1999 is one of the few remaining high-profile Iraqis inside of the country who opposes the Saddam government.
Those close to Sadr have reported that Shia communities are organizing in response to the previous week's arrest of Shia clerics and the deaths of Shia worshipers. The anti-Saddam cleric whose militia has reportedly clashed with Iraqi police has called for supporters to commit unrest in defiance of the Saddam Baathist government.
Mr. Sadr is an evident challenge to the supposed infallibility of Iraq’s long-time dictator Saddam Hussein. But representatives of Saddam's government have so far dismissed Sadr as a ‘pathetic nonentity' and an ‘Iranian stooge’.
Though it is unclear how much support Mr. Sadr has or the real strength of his movement, it may represent an emerging threat to the Iraqi regime…

Explosion kills 20 Iraqi Soldiers in Basra
By Atef Hassan
November 1, 2005
At least 20 Iraqis were killed in the southern Iraqi city of Basra last night after a truck bomb went off in an army compound in one of the last cool evenings of the holy month of Ramadan.
The interior ministry said that 20 soldiers have been killed, dozens of others are wounded, and several buildings and vehicles were devastated. The bombing came at the end of a violent month in Iraq, 6 other soldiers have been reported killed in the last few weeks.
This bombing comes as tensions have continued to rise between the Saddam government and the southern Shia population. In the south of Iraq though Saddam remains in control of the region's ground forces, American patrols in the no-fly zone to prevent Saddam’s troops from organizing effectively and forcing them not to use conventional military bases as they are frequent targets for American airstrikes.
Saddam’s forces have come under more frequent clashes with Shia cleric Moqtada al-Sadr’s ‘Mahdi Army’ who has repeatedly called for a Shia revolt to ‘wipe out the vipers in Babghdad’ …


 
Last edited:
The bill was signed, marking a major achievement for same-sex civil rights advocates. The largest state in the country with a population of 35 million had legalized gay marriage, doubling the number of people globally who now enjoyed that same right. And escalating the importance of the issue throughout the country. The move also further raised the celebrity of Governor Huffington who lavished the media attention and further built her brand as an unapologetic liberal Californian and was praised by Massachusetts Representative Barney Frank (the first openly gay member of Congress) who proposed an amendment to the constitution that would allow any naturalized American to be eligible for the Presidency nicknamed the Arianna Amendment.
Arianna as president would certainly be something, but I doubt that it'll happen. Still, a great update!
 
I wonder if we'll see the Iraqi government storming the Imam Ali Shrine like the storming of the Golden Temple in India in the 80s.
 
Top