Geronimo : What if Osama Bin Laden was killed prior to 9/11?
- Thread starter Iwanh
- Start date
I guess the Bushes just don't do well in domestic affairs. For TTL, 9/4 would be considered more as a Russian thing, hence it didn't help Bush get a second term.
CBS calling OH for Edwards remind me of Fox calling AZ for Biden OTL 2020
The thoughts and prayers of Ukrainians, of course, will be with Russians, but one must understand that, despite the 2004-2014 culture wars, the Ukrainian voters majority rationally chose not between Bandera and general Vatutin, but between a "bright European future" and "profitable economic ties with Russia". The unnecessary war's prospect doesn't fit into the picture of a brighter future.
Yanukovych's victory in 2004 is interesting PoD in itself. My thoughts on this
1) The Ukrainian security forces have never wanted to get involved in politics during a crisis. Neither the militsiia in 1993, when Kravchuk wanted to dissolve the parliament, nor the SBU in 2004, nor the army in 2014
2) Mykola Azarov will most likely be the prime minister. He is from Donetsk, that is, an Yanukovych ally. Obvious agents of Russian influence such as Medvedchuk will be in more secondary positions and Yanukovych will think how to replace them with his own people
3) Orange will win the 2006 elections. Yushchenko will become prime minister. Tymoshenko will be his personal pain in the ass, but since her popularity will be much lower than that of Yushchenko, she will only betray him if Yanukovych offers her the prime minister's chair.
4) A customs union with Russia will be like controversial as NATO IOTL during Yushchenko. Its ratification depends on the situation in the Rada.
5) The crisis of 2008 will hit any Ukrainian government, providing the opposition with a victory in the 2009 elections.
6) The price of Russian gas will grow, but it will be lower than IOTL
Uday's Night Out Part 1
Ever since Bush's attempt to oust his father had failed, Uday had been in a very celebratory mood. He'd been an eager spectator at the interrogations of several Scorpions in the Mukhabarat's detention cells and even partook in a few 'questioning' sessions. He wanted to hear about the training camps in Nevada but more than that he wanted to hear about what they saw in America. He'd demand that the captives be kept alive until they answer all his questions about their lives abroad. If one of them died before giving all the answers he wanted, Uday would ensure that the officer responsible was severely punished.
He played the part of the grieving brother in front of the TV cameras as his father expected. Qusay's remains were interned in a public ceremony consisting of family members and his father's inner circle. Uday felt that he'd put on the appropriate display of despondence, weeping in front of his brother's casket and doing to make the Americans pay for what they did.
In truth though, he was ecstatic that his biggest rival was out of the way. No need for any convoluted plans that his father would see through almost immediately. Sometimes Uday wondered just what Saddam thought would happen to him if Qusay took over.
As his car headed in the direction of the segment of Bagdad housing several embassies, he decided that he didn't need to waste his time wondering 'what if.' He was hungry and wanted something he'd never tasted before. No restaurant in the country would deny him but he was in the mood for something truly unique. And since he couldn't leave Iraq for other countries, he had to settle for the next best thing. He had lists of all the dinner functions being organized by the foreign ministry at which embassies each day.
Colombian was what piqued his interest that evening. As per usual, he never called in advance. He liked spontaneity.
Colombian food, wine, and potentially women.
He was certain this would turn out to be a wonderful evening.
Ever since Bush's attempt to oust his father had failed, Uday had been in a very celebratory mood. He'd been an eager spectator at the interrogations of several Scorpions in the Mukhabarat's detention cells and even partook in a few 'questioning' sessions. He wanted to hear about the training camps in Nevada but more than that he wanted to hear about what they saw in America. He'd demand that the captives be kept alive until they answer all his questions about their lives abroad. If one of them died before giving all the answers he wanted, Uday would ensure that the officer responsible was severely punished.
He played the part of the grieving brother in front of the TV cameras as his father expected. Qusay's remains were interned in a public ceremony consisting of family members and his father's inner circle. Uday felt that he'd put on the appropriate display of despondence, weeping in front of his brother's casket and doing to make the Americans pay for what they did.
In truth though, he was ecstatic that his biggest rival was out of the way. No need for any convoluted plans that his father would see through almost immediately. Sometimes Uday wondered just what Saddam thought would happen to him if Qusay took over.
As his car headed in the direction of the segment of Bagdad housing several embassies, he decided that he didn't need to waste his time wondering 'what if.' He was hungry and wanted something he'd never tasted before. No restaurant in the country would deny him but he was in the mood for something truly unique. And since he couldn't leave Iraq for other countries, he had to settle for the next best thing. He had lists of all the dinner functions being organized by the foreign ministry at which embassies each day.
Colombian was what piqued his interest that evening. As per usual, he never called in advance. He liked spontaneity.
Colombian food, wine, and potentially women.
He was certain this would turn out to be a wonderful evening.
I suspect it's going to go badly for him in the end and no doubt he will end up doing something that will really piss off Saddam
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I never knew Uday was a party crasher.
I think he has an idea that he could make out with a hot Colombian girl.
How do you think Saddam will punish UdayI suspect it's going to go badly for him in the end and no doubt he will end up doing something that will really piss off Saddam
Sadly, Muslims would still be labeled as a terrorist, those vicious "Muslims driving airplanes hitting the building" joke would still existed, just didn't related to Twin tower
Basically an extension of the 90s. If anything happens, the 2000s here from a socio-political standpoint begins in 2004 rather 2001 of OTL.
The death of Ahmed Shah Massoud, which was an ominous two days before the attacks.
I'd forgot about that, I strongly suspect that Afghanistan would be a better place if he hadn't have been assassinated.
Some agree he would have ruled as a moderate. We would never know.
Bin Laden wasn’t completely stupid, that's why he killed Massoud before unleashing 9/11. They weren't Republic Pictures serial villains.
The assassination in particular really were brilliant, because it definitely crippled the ability of the Afghan opposition to build an effective government. Something that he could never allow if he wanted to drag the United States in an endless war in Afghanistan.
I think there’d be a lot of commentary - particularly from Republicans - who after the fact probably felt like Bush spent too much time and capital on trying to bounce Saddam/intervene in Iraq and wound up ignoring domestic issues, just like his dad, and parallels between the two would be much more stark in popular culture.
Especially if the slick, handsome and charismatic Southern populist Dem that beats Bush the Younger wins two terms and presides over economic growth. Without the War on Terror you maybe push subprime out a bit and Social Security/public pensions are way more solvent
Working on part 2 of the Uday story but here' a side story about a Fox News segment in the wake of the Bay of Goats fiasco. Bill O Reilly is interviewing an academic from the Project for the New American Century, a neocon foreign policy think tank.
"My guest today is Doctor Ellis Combs of the Project for the New American Century, Doctor Combs good to see you."
"It's good to be here, Bill," said the bespectacled man in a green suit.
"Now, I'd imagine that what's happened in Iraq has caused a great deal of concern for you and your fellows."
"That's putting it lightly, Bill. What we witnessed was a horrendous intelligence failure and it hasn't just strengthened Saddam but it could compromise America's long term goals in the Middle East."
"Is it really that dire?" Combs nodded.
"The ousting of Saddam from power was supposed to kickstart a wave of uprisings against Middle Eastern dictators. It was supposed to provide encouragement for revolutionary movements. But for the most part, the Iraqi public didn't take part in the planned uprisings so those who tried fighting were just wiped out piecemeal. We will never have another chance at an operation like Wolverine in the foreseeable future and we've only undermined our own credibility over the course of a year starting with the Disarmament Crisis."
"So you'd say Saddam is riding pretty high right now?"
"He spoke on 60 Minutes before Wolverine kicked off and now he's only increased his clout at our expense. Killing his son Qusay was very small consolation if any at all."
"What's the worst case scenario you and your fellow researchers are predicting?"
"The complete opposite of what our group hoped would happen. It may be possible that Wolverine's failure spurs the creation of an alliance between Iraq, Syria and Iran, maybe even Afghanistan. We could see an anti-American bloc take shape in the Middle East with the potential to greatly unbalance the current global order. Israel could be threatened. Saudi Arabia could be threatened. They could carry out joint projects with the North Koreans and put South Korea in danger. A group like this may not form but the possibility is enough that I believe we really need to put the pedal to the metal in regards to military recruiting if we hope to contain it."
"Do you think that what happened might negatively impact recruiting?"
"It certainly isn't helping, Bill. We're not in crisis territory just yet but the recruiting deficiency was worrying enough before Wolverine. If our worst projections come to pass, we're going to need a lot more young Americans in uniform. But from where I'm standing, encouraging them to join the military is already very challenging."
"You think they don't hear the call of duty?"
"You could phrase it that way, yes. You have a great deal of disinterest in the military. They're choosing college, trade schools or other options, we've been finding. Military service isn't that appealing to them and we're struggling to find a way to fix that. Before the turn of the millennium we predicted that the rate at which our manpower is shrinking makes acting on our foreign policy objectives very difficult. But if the trend of apathy toward the armed forces among young Americans continues we could really be in trouble."
"How so?"
"Their apathy can make the all the more vulnerable to anti-American propaganda spread by hostile countries and what they hear back at home."
"Discouraging them from joining the military. How do you see this propaganda being spread?"
"We could see it being circulated on social networking sites where teenagers hang out. It could build on a lot of the anti-military narratives some segments of the Democratic Party spread. Deliberately aggravating a manpower crisis could be a potential tool used by such an alliance."
"We'll be right back," said Bill.
"My guest today is Doctor Ellis Combs of the Project for the New American Century, Doctor Combs good to see you."
"It's good to be here, Bill," said the bespectacled man in a green suit.
"Now, I'd imagine that what's happened in Iraq has caused a great deal of concern for you and your fellows."
"That's putting it lightly, Bill. What we witnessed was a horrendous intelligence failure and it hasn't just strengthened Saddam but it could compromise America's long term goals in the Middle East."
"Is it really that dire?" Combs nodded.
"The ousting of Saddam from power was supposed to kickstart a wave of uprisings against Middle Eastern dictators. It was supposed to provide encouragement for revolutionary movements. But for the most part, the Iraqi public didn't take part in the planned uprisings so those who tried fighting were just wiped out piecemeal. We will never have another chance at an operation like Wolverine in the foreseeable future and we've only undermined our own credibility over the course of a year starting with the Disarmament Crisis."
"So you'd say Saddam is riding pretty high right now?"
"He spoke on 60 Minutes before Wolverine kicked off and now he's only increased his clout at our expense. Killing his son Qusay was very small consolation if any at all."
"What's the worst case scenario you and your fellow researchers are predicting?"
"The complete opposite of what our group hoped would happen. It may be possible that Wolverine's failure spurs the creation of an alliance between Iraq, Syria and Iran, maybe even Afghanistan. We could see an anti-American bloc take shape in the Middle East with the potential to greatly unbalance the current global order. Israel could be threatened. Saudi Arabia could be threatened. They could carry out joint projects with the North Koreans and put South Korea in danger. A group like this may not form but the possibility is enough that I believe we really need to put the pedal to the metal in regards to military recruiting if we hope to contain it."
"Do you think that what happened might negatively impact recruiting?"
"It certainly isn't helping, Bill. We're not in crisis territory just yet but the recruiting deficiency was worrying enough before Wolverine. If our worst projections come to pass, we're going to need a lot more young Americans in uniform. But from where I'm standing, encouraging them to join the military is already very challenging."
"You think they don't hear the call of duty?"
"You could phrase it that way, yes. You have a great deal of disinterest in the military. They're choosing college, trade schools or other options, we've been finding. Military service isn't that appealing to them and we're struggling to find a way to fix that. Before the turn of the millennium we predicted that the rate at which our manpower is shrinking makes acting on our foreign policy objectives very difficult. But if the trend of apathy toward the armed forces among young Americans continues we could really be in trouble."
"How so?"
"Their apathy can make the all the more vulnerable to anti-American propaganda spread by hostile countries and what they hear back at home."
"Discouraging them from joining the military. How do you see this propaganda being spread?"
"We could see it being circulated on social networking sites where teenagers hang out. It could build on a lot of the anti-military narratives some segments of the Democratic Party spread. Deliberately aggravating a manpower crisis could be a potential tool used by such an alliance."
"We'll be right back," said Bill.
@Iwanh Why 9/4 terrorist chose Russia instead of America? (I know because this is the world without 9/11 ofc no America) But I wonder what's the reason for TTL terrorist didn't pick America as a target?