Geronimo : What if Osama Bin Laden was killed prior to 9/11?

President Bush is a known quality, so I understand from a storytelling perspective it's better to have the narrative follow familiar characters in an unfamiliar setting, than to multiply the counterfactual with a different administration in power.
Exactly right, I considered a Gore Presidency strongly, but I just couldn't find the justification and I thought it might take away from the terror aspect and become a Gore TL
 
Might you dip into the culture wars that brewed under that Republican administration
Given the butterflies, the culture wars, and the culture of the US (along with a good chunk of the world) will be affected and I look forward to exploring them.
The inflammatory stuff aside, there's Katrina, immigration reform, Medicare Part D, privatizing Social Security, Enron, and so on. Really curious if foreign policy might still be affected wrt Russia and China.
Bush Jr's presidency will certainly be different.
 
I almost wonder if the Overton Window applies to terrorists as well.
I would definitely agree here, prior to 9/11, truck bombings were the method based on the success of the Beirut bombing. 9/11 pushed terrorists to attack aircraft and is responsible for a lot of attacks that weren't directed by Al-Qaeda
That was also when American Muslims were predominantly Republican voters.
This is great information, I had yet to consider that, thank you.
 
Part 7: Early Days
Part VII

Early Days


The presidency of George W Bush would be different than that of his predecessor or even that of his father, he intended to champion a new wave of compassionate conservatism. And he laid it out in his first address to congress in February 2001, domestically it meant cutting taxes. reforming education, Medicare, and social security as well as increasing America’s energy independence, and a strong social conservative bent. Foreign policy-wise it meant a lot less, candidate Bush emphasized a reversal of Clinton's interventionism, but his administration was swimming with hawkish ‘neoconservatives' for instance Vice President Dick Cheney or Secretary of Defence Donald Rumsfeld who held more bullish and unilateral attitudes toward America's military might.[1]

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President Bush and Vice President Dick Cheney

The administration set to work on his agenda, starting with its campaign centrepiece a tax cut. Bush described it simply with the slogan "Whoever pays taxes gets a tax break.", the 90’s boomtime had produced budget surpluses that Republicans blamed on high taxes. However, by the time he assumed the presidency, economic predictions had shifted. In the aftermath of the dot-com bubble by March 2001, the United States had slid into recession. The President doubled down, claiming that tax cuts would boost the economy and turn things around, congress was presented with the Economic Growth and Tax Relief Reconciliation Act or, EGTRRA in May. The President attempted to court a bipartisan consensus, but legislators and the public defied him. Most Americans supported tax cuts but were divided on who should get them. Bush supported a vast tax cut of over a trillion and a half dollars across all income levels, as well as reducing capital gains and eliminating the estate tax. Democrats framed it as more beneficial to the rich and alongside moderate Republicans tried to tack on amendments that would cancel out the tax cuts should the downturn continue or worsen. Bush shunned their concerns; his approval ratings were high enough (mid 60’s) that he believed he could force congress to back him. However, his majorities were thin, with only a 10 house seats majority and Cheney was the tiebreaker in the Senate, this forced the bill to include sunset provisions set to expire after 10 years so it could avoid a Democratic filibuster, the act was passed by mostly Republican votes and sent to the President’s desk. Bush called it a “historic” moment and it was “about time”. While the Democratic Senate leader Tom Daschle warned that “reality is going to come crashing down on all of us and we're going to have to deal with it,". The immediate effect of the bill was the effect on the Republican party as Vermont Senator Jim Jeffords abandoned the Republicans dissatisfied with the party and began caucusing with the Democrats costing the Republicans their working majority.

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President Bush signs the Tax relief bill into law

Aside from domestic policy, the Bush administration was light in terms of any specific foreign policy goals. The main issue immediately facing the President was the middle east. The previous year saw President Clinton attempt to end the Israeli-Palestinian conflict via a summit at Camp David, all sides agreed that the efforts were the closest they’d come to a lasting peace arrangement before negotiations broke down. Following the failed peace, a large Palestinian uprising (the second Intifada) and subsequent Israeli crackdowns began. Bush’s approach was the first example of his presidency being trapped between the centre and right wings of his administration. Bush hoped to steer clear from the issue seeing Clinton’s failure as a perfect reason why not to involve the U.S. in such matters, they were too high risk. But escalating violence forced the U.S. to at least speak on the subject, it did so mostly neutrally calling on Palestinian leader Arafat to condemn and stop terror attacks, but also condemning the “excessive and disproportionate” actions of the Israeli Defence Forces, Bush dispatched Secretary of State Colin Powell but no cease-fire could be agreed.[2]

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Palestinians throw rocks at Israeli forces during the second Intifada

While Powell visited the middle east, the president took his first military action ordering further strikes on Iraq in order to enforce the no-fly zones in the country, the targets included radar systems and anti-aircraft weaponry. The President claimed that the strikes were due to Saddam’s continued efforts to challenge U.S. and U.K. planes and to send a message to deter his alleged pursuit of weapons of mass destruction.[3]

Bush also had to deal with China and Russia. Bush criticised Clinton and Gore as being too friendly toward China, and early in his presidency, he doubled down, affirming support for Taiwanese independence and increased arms sales. Tensions flared in April when a U.S. spy plane accidentally clipped a Chinese jet, killing the Chinese pilot, Chinese authorities detained the U.S. personnel until an apology was extracted, and tensions were further raised when reports were released concerning China’s warming relationship with Iraq. Many expected a similar rocky relationship with Russia, but these fears were initially defied following a meeting of the two Presidents in Slovenia. Bush claimed he “was able to get a sense of (Putin’s) soul, a man deeply committed to his country and the best interests of his country," and fully expected the two nations to become partners in democracy. The meeting came as criticisms grew over Russia’s role in the Chechen war, and many were sceptical of Bush's claims about Putin. However, these hopes/fears of closer Russian American relations were halted over Bush's new defence policy which included scrapping old cold war era treaties such as the Anti-Ballistic Missile treaty, that Putin saw as a move to isolate Russia.

1635703874955.png

Left: deceased Chinese pilot Wang Wei and his wife.
Right: President Bush and President Putin meet in Slovenia

Regarding defence policy, on the campaign trail, Bush had decried Clinton's intervention and nation-building and stressed the importance of upgrading the military rather than expanding it, to move past “cold war relics and to reflect today’s needs”. This slimming down was stressed by Defence Secretary Rumsfeld who saw a pervasive bureaucracy that needlessly extended the U.S. where it didn’t need to be and wasted taxpayer funds. In short, his was a brutalist view of defence policy, that the United States dictated the rules and courting allies was a waste, so long as the United States had the superior technology, superior air power and superior speed of deployment, its enemies wouldn’t stand a chance.

1635703613044.png

Secretary of Defence Rumsfeld is sworn into office
In regard to terror, the Bush administration was just as sceptical of CIA and FBI claims as Clinton, as far as the administration was concerned, tracking down individual terrorists was a waste of time, the President referred to these tactics as “swatting flies”. The U.S. worked with Jordan to track Zarqawi and determined he had fled to Afghanistan where he built his own organisation Jama’at but authorised no strikes on his supposed locations. Instead, the intelligence agencies were resigned to observation and report status to investigate, but no active measures were taken to attack the organisations.[4]

The President moved on to his second domestic issue, education reform. It had been a signature of both Bush and Gore’s campaigns. Education was the issue for Americans, when polled on Bushes’ agenda, education reform topped the list of priorities. It had won him early support for championing it in his gubernatorial days when most conservatives favoured the government getting out of schooling altogether and abolishing the department of education, Bush flipped the script on that. The administration dubbed their proposed reforms the No Child Left Behind Act and approached the Lion of the Senate Democratic Senator Ted Kennedy. Kennedy a long-time advocate of education reform accepted the White House’s offer. The bipartisan coalition was able to quickly marshal together support for bills in the house and senate, focused on creating an accountability system for public education that would be monitored by rigorous testing, the bills passed with flying majorities “Everyone was waiting to celebrate” said Bush advisor Margaret Spellings “we had these two mammoth bills that had passed so quickly. And then everything just stalled” The two bills needed to be reconciled, it seemed an easy task at first, but it became clear that when it came to education, the devil was in the details, it would take a lot of conferencing through to settle it, all the while the ongoing recession and continued investigations into his election victory ticked away at the President's approval ratings and Democrats felt more and more comfortable criticising him. By September the President was frustrated with progress, so in an effort to breathe life into negotiations and refocus media attention, he travelled to Florida to visit elementary schools.

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President Bush departs for Florida on September 10th, 2001



[1] Bush prior to 9/11 held unclear foreign policy views though they were less interventionist, but let’s be honest, he was not a deep thinker and always relied on his advisors and cabinet members though ultimately he was the “decider”
[2] Bush's Israeli-Palestine policy was heavily affected by 9/11 and the war on terror, so who knows where this could go?
[3] Bush and the neo-cons hated Saddam Hussein, Bush for especially personal reasons the attempted assassination of his father and his belief that failure to remove Saddam played a role in losing the 96 election
[4] Basically what the White House said regarding Bin Laden IOTL
 

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Hmm...

And nothing of note happened the next day, in TTL?
i think that Iwanh said earlier that Bush isn't going to be a war time President. something very interesting to examine is how the Arab spring or TTL version of it will be effected since while a certain Tunisian might not self immolate, civil unrest or uprisings would have accured regardless in countries like Egypt & Syria though the results will probably be different.
 
Part 8: September 11th
Part VIII

September 11th, 2001


John O’Neill had, only a few months ago been a committed and decorated member of the ‘Bureau’, but now he made his commute to his office in the world trade centre. The death of Bin Laden, the man that John had spent years searching for, had been the peak of his law enforcement career. It didn’t take long for the short-sighted politicians and the circle-jerk operation going in the CIA to sap up the credit. O’Neil didn’t complain, but it was clear that his superiors had had enough of him. His constant doomsaying and dire predictions on the state of U.S. security clearly didn’t fit right with them, it didn’t help that he had opposed the Afghan strikes as an inefficient way of beating Al-Qaeda. They boxed him out, set ethics investigators on his trail and spied on him. Instead of allowing the axe to fall upon him, he opted for early retirement so he could learn more about the rumoured private sector pay. He headed up to the 34th floor of the south tower and sat down at his desk.[1]

1636220048873.png

New York City Skyline, featuring World Trade Centres 1 and 2 known as the Twin Towers

Captain Ogonowski drove his Chevy to the Logan international airport. He’d been a pilot coming up on 30 years now, first for the military, flying supplies from South Carolina to Saigon, now for American Airlines. It was always his dream, and his dream had turned out well for him, he'd met his wife Peggy once a flight attendant on the job and now he only flew a week out of the month, which gave him plenty of time for his family farm. As the dawn came up over Boston and he glided by his uncles' house he honked his horn, a little tradition of his.

1636220245119.png

American Airlines Captain, John Ogonowski
18 thousand people worked at the Pentagon, even with all the renovations the building was undergoing, it was still flush with uniformed military and suited civilians alike struggling to get hard work done here, in the beating heart of the U.S. military. However to Toni, it was what she did to pass the time between fishing trips, she couldn’t think about that now though, the day hadn’t even started yet and already she had lost focus. Instead of analysing the army budget she couldn’t help but picture the cruise she’d be on in a month.

1636220261796.png

Budget Analyst, Antoinette "Toni" Sherman

United Airlines flight 175 departed Logan Airport for Los Angeles on time, just as Alona had scheduled it, despite it being a vacation she worked just as hard engineering her sightseeing in America as she engineered for a living in Israel. She’d travelled the world Paris, Amsterdam, Africa but America was different, the weather, the sights, the prices! But above all, it was the peace, a far cry from the fighting at home. Alona’s trip had only just begun and she dreaded the thought of it ending.

1636220279508.png

Israeli Engineer, Alona Abraham

‘Late, how could I be late’. That is what Greg thought to himself. Of course, he knew why he was late, too busy watching the Giants lose to the Broncos. First, he gets yelled at by his wife for going out on a weeknight, then his daughter for not watching the game with her, and now he’d get it from the manager and then from the customers, 'honestly nothing gets people angrier than missing breakfast'. Not even the view the Windows on the World could provide could smooth over the sin of slow service. As he jogged out of Penn Station, he braced himself for a confrontational day.

1636220316724.png

Windows on the World, The most valuable restaurant in the US

It was a busy time for Republican pundits, they were no longer riotous crusaders, fighting the powerful hedonist liberals to save America's moral fabric. Now, they were the powerful and the media was a lot less accommodating. Barbara Olson jotted notes down as the plane crossed the Appalachians. She’d need them for when she got to Los Angeles where she intended to defend Bush and attack the Clintons, where she would inevitably face a pack of liberals and the host Bill Maher. She’d be kidding herself if she pretended not to enjoy it, plus her new book Final Days would get good publicity from the appearance. It just pained her that it was all so last minute. ‘still’ she thought ‘it was either Ted's birthday or the earlier flight.’

1636220329509.png

Writer and Commentator, Barbara Kay Olson

9-11 is D-Day, that’s what the banners declared as hundreds of New Yorkers lined up one by one and cast votes in the New York City primaries. Both Republicans and Democrats were voting to decide on the nominees to succeed the thoroughly dampened mayor Giuliani. For the Republicans, it was all but sewn up for former Democrat billionaire businessman Michael Bloomberg. Polls predicted a much tighter race for the Democrats but it seemed that Mark Green the city’s public advocate held the advantage. Politicos across the city waited on tenterhooks for the results.

1636220336865.png

Candidates for mayor : (left) Michael Bloomberg (R) and (right) Mark Green (D)

President George W Bush sat in Emma E Booker Elementary School, listening politely to the second graders conduct a reading exercise. Rhythmically the children recited The Pet Goat for both President and press, and then after 15 minutes they finished. The President and teacher applauded the student's performance and the class concluded, the President took a moment to pull his chief of staff, Andrew Card, aside and whispered to him “You were right Andy, it's gonna be an easy day” [2]

1636220345401.png

George Bush visits Emma E Booker Elementary School

Howard Stern joked about Pamela Anderson[3], Madonna played to a sold-out staples centre, Alejandro Sanz took away the Latin Grammy for Record, Album and Song of the year[4], and the New York Yankees bested the Chicago White Sox. Michael Bloomberg and Mark Green[5] won their respective primaries. Passengers flew, pundits debated, the markets opened and closed[6], thousands commuted to and from work, and millions continued their days uninterrupted. Jay Leno came on that night at his usual time and gave the opening monologue for The Tonight Show. “The President was in Florida today, visiting elementary schools apparently, he even sat in on a 2nd-grade reading class. Isn’t that good to see? It just goes to show it really is never too late for you to go back to school.” the show featured an interview with Charlie Sheen and musical guest Gillian Welsh[7].

1636220352266.png

The Tonight Show with Jay Leno

United Airlines 93 touched down at San Francisco International airport, it was perfect luck that just as the flight had been delayed from taking off it was delayed from disembarking. Adjusting his watch Todd realised he still had time for the Sony meeting, but he’d be cutting it a lot closer than he’d like. He worked too hard, that’s what his wife told him, it was crazy, she was the pregnant one, yet he was the one working too hard, she was probably right. ‘God, Italy can’t come soon enough’ he thought.
“Don’t you think this is the worst part of flying?”. The guy speaking to him was a row behind him and standing impatiently, Todd looked and nodded politely from his seat. The guy continued “It’s like they get your hopes up when they land, and then they make you wait here with the airport right there! Do you fly a lot?”
“Me? all the time,”
Todd said.
“Same, I hate it, but it's work, so what are you gonna do about it? Say, you got kids?”

Tod still sitting and the guy (he said his name was Jeremy[8]) still standing talked about their work, their kids, and sports all through the tarmac delay until finally when the doors opened to the airport and people began exiting. Todd finally stood up and expressed relief
“All right, let’s roll”

1636220361549.png

Account Manager, Todd Beamer


[1] O’Neil is a character but one way or another it seemed he was on the way out of the FBI
[2] Andrew Card reportedly told the president just that
[3] Pamela Anderson was the subject of the broadcast immediately prior to the first plane
[4] The 2001 Latin Grammys never took place
[5] By my research, the Democratic primaries were a lot closer following 9/11 here Green walks away with the majority needed to avoid a runoff
[6] The economic implications of 9/11 are especially interesting
[7] The Tonight Show and the Daily show both went dark following the attacks Letterman was already on a break
[8] Jeremy Glick

This was something I felt had to be written for this timeline, to those who expecting something else I understand but don't worry, all shall be explained.
 
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Part VIII
September 11th, 2001


John O’Neill had, only a few months ago been a committed and decorated member of the ‘Bureau’, now made his commute to his office in the world trade centre. The death of Bin Laden, the man John spent years searching for had been the peak in his law enforcement career. It didn’t take long for the short-sighted politicians and the circle jerk operation going in the CIA to take the credit. O’Neil didn’t complain, but it was clear that his superiors had had enough of him. His constant doomsaying and dire predictions on the state of U.S. security clearly didn’t fit right with them it didn’t help that he had opposed the Afghan strikes as an inefficient way of beating Al-Qaeda. They boxed him out, set ethics investigators on his trail and spied on him. Instead of allowing the axe to fall upon him, he opted for early retirement so he could learn more about the rumoured private sector pay. He headed up to the 34th floor of the south tower and sat down at his desk.[1]

View attachment 693390
New York City Skyline, featuring World Trade Centre 1 and 2 known as the Twin Towers

Captain Ogonowski drove his chevy to the logan international airport. He’d been a pilot coming up on 30 years, first for the military flying supplies from South Carolina to Saigon, now for American Airlines. It was always his dream, and his dream had turned out well for him and met his wife Peggy on the job. He now only flew a week out of the month which gave him plenty of time for his family farm. As the dawn came up over Boston and he glided by his uncles' house he honked his horn.

View attachment 693392
American Airlines Captain, John Ogonowski
18 thousand people worked at the Pentagon even with all the renovations the building undergoing it was still flush with military and civilians alike struggling to get hard work done here, in the heart of the U.S. military. However to Toni, it was what she did to pass the time between fishing trips, she couldn’t think about that now though, the day hadn’t even started and already she had lost focus. Instead of analysing the army budget she couldn’t help but picture the cruise she’d be on in a month.

View attachment 693393
Budget Analyst, Antoinette "Toni" Sherman

United Airlines flight 175 departed Logan Airport for Los Angeles on time just as Alona had scheduled it, despite it being a vacation she worked just as hard engineering her sightseeing in America as well as she engineered for a living in Israel. She’d travelled the world Paris, Amsterdam, Africa but America was different, the weather, the sights, the prices! But above all, it was the peace, a far cry from the fighting at home. Alona’s trip had only just begun and she dreaded the thought of it ending

View attachment 693394
Israeli Engineer, Alona Abraham

‘Late, how could I be late’. That is what Greg thought to himself. He knew why he was late, too busy watching the Giants lose to the Broncos. First, he gets yelled at by his wife for going out on a weeknight, then his daughter for not watching the game with her, and now he’d get it from the manager and the customers, honestly nothing gets people angrier than missing breakfast. Not even the view the Windows on the World could provide could smooth over the sin of slow service. As he jogged out of Penn Station, he braced himself for a confrontational day.

View attachment 693395
Windows on the World, The most valuable restaurant in the US

It was a busy time for Republican pundits, they were no longer riotous crusaders, fighting the powerful hedonist liberals to save America's moral fabric. Now, they were the powerful and the media was a lot less accommodating. Barbara Olson jotted notes down as the plane crossed the Appalachians. She’d need them for when she got to Los Angeles where she intended to defend Bush and attack the Clintons, where she would inevitably face a pack of liberals and the host Bill Maher. She’d be kidding herself if she pretended not to enjoy it, plus her new book Final Days would get good publicity from the appearance. It just pained her that it was all so last minute. ‘still’ she thought ‘it was either Teds birthday or the earlier flight.’

View attachment 693396
Writer and Commentator, Barbara Kay Olson

9-11 is D-Day, that’s what the banners declared as hundreds of New Yorkers lined up one by one and cast votes in the New York City primaries. Both Republicans and Democrats were voting to decide on the nominees to succeed the thoroughly dampened mayor Giuliani. For the Republicans, it was all but sewn up for former Democrat billionaire businessman Michael Bloomberg. Polls predicted a much tighter race for the Democrats but it seemed that Mark Green the city’s public advocate held the advantage. Politicos across the city waited on tenterhooks for the results.

View attachment 693397
Candidates for mayor : (left) Michael Bloomberg (R) and (right) Mark Green (D)

President George W Bush sat in Emma E Booker Elementary School, listening politely to the second graders conduct a reading exercise. Rhythmically the children recited The Pet Goat for both president and press and then after 15 minutes they finished. The President and teacher applauded the students’ performance and the class concluded, the President took a moment to pull his chief of staff, Andrew Card, aside and whispered to him “You were right Andy, it's gonna be an easy day” [2]

View attachment 693398
George Bush visits Emma E Booker Elementary School

Howard Stern joked about Pamela Anderson[3], Madonna played to a sold-out staples centre, Alejandro Sanz took away the Latin Grammy for Record, Album and Song of the year[4], the New York Yankees bested the Chicago White Sox. Michael Bloomberg and Mark Green[5] won their respective primaries. Passengers flew, politics debated, the markets opened and closed[6], thousands commuted to and from work, millions continued their days uninterrupted. Jay Leno came on that night at his usual time and gave the opening monologue for The Tonight Show. “The President was in Florida today, visiting elementary schools, he even sat in on a 2nd-grade reading class. Isn’t that good to see? It just goes to show it is never too late for you to go back to school” the show featured an interview with Charlie Sheen and musical guest Gillian Welsh[7]

View attachment 693399
The Tonight Show with Jay Leno

United Airlines 93 touched down at San Francisco International airport, it was perfect luck that just as the flight had been delayed from taking off it was delayed from disembarking. Adjusting his watch Todd realised he still had time for the Sony meeting, but he’d be cutting it a lot closer than he’d like. He worked too hard, that’s what his wife told him, it was crazy, she was the pregnant one, yet he was the one working too hard, she was probably right. ‘God, Italy can’t come soon enough’ he thought.
“Don’t you think this is the worst part of flying?”. The guy speaking to him was a row behind him and standing impatiently, Todd looked and nodded politely from his seat. The guy continued “It’s like they get your hopes up when they land, and then they make you wait here with the airport right there! Do you fly a lot?”
“Me? all the time,” Todd said.
“Same, I hate it, but it's work, so what are you gonna do about it. Say, you got kids?” …

Tod still sitting and the guy (he said his name was Jeremy[8]) still standing talked about their work, their kids, and sports all through the tarmac delay until finally when the doors opened to the airport and people began exiting. Todd finally stood up
“All right let’s roll”

View attachment 693400
Account Manager, Todd Beamer


[1] O’Neil is a character but one way or another it seemed he was on the way out of the FBI
[2] Andrew Card reportedly told the president just that
[3] Pamela Anderson was the subject of the broadcast immediately prior to the first plane
[4] The 2001 Latin Grammys never took place
[5] By my research, the Democratic primaries were a lot closer following 9/11 here Green walks away with the majority needed to avoid a runoff
[6] The economic implications of 9/11 are especially interesting
[7] The Tonight Show and the Daily show both went dark following the attacks Letterman was already on a break
[8] Jeremy Glick

This was something I felt had to be written for this timeline, to those who something else I understand but don't worry, all shall be explained.
Very well written, and I must say, very tastefully done, since I’m sure it was difficult writing about some of these better-known victims of the September 11th attacks. Excellent update.
 
Very well written, and I must say, very tastefully done, since I’m sure it was difficult writing about some of these better-known victims of the September 11th attacks. Excellent update.
Thank you very much, to be honest I wasn't sure how to write this but I felt it would be missing something if I just breezed past it.
 
Thank you very much, to be honest I wasn't sure how to write this but I felt it would be missing something if I just breezed past it.
I agree, it would have felt strange to entirely elide it. I think you handled it the right way, with the care and delicacy it warrants.
 
but America was different, the weather, the sights, the prices! But above all, it was the peace, a far cry from the fighting at home.
i like the very accurate portrayal of culture shock here, i remember visiting relatives in the states when i was 14 and just the sheer shock about everything there! not just the low prices but the utter tranquility.
anyway i really like the way in which you wrote this update, not just from 9\11 being just another day, but also the little peeks into the lives of OTL victims. waiting for the next update.
Very well written, and I must say, very tastefully done, since I’m sure it was difficult writing about some of these better-known victims of the September 11th attacks. Excellent update.
this
September 11, 2001 is just another ordinary day in this timeline.
exactly
 
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