I'll be honest, that excuse for not making a second Gump kind of felt a bit lame to me, as they covered a lot of not so "family-friendly" stuff in the first one, especially in the 60's. I just don't buy it.
Geronimo : What if Osama Bin Laden was killed prior to 9/11?
- Thread starter Iwanh
- Start date
Maybe they felt the whole thing was like a "lightning in a bottle" moment and felt they wouldn't be able to replicate the success.
Maybe they felt it would be weird to create a film about the notable events of the 80's and 90's given the weight of events in the 00's.
mapuche lautarino
Banned
I wonder how the war in Colombia evolves, without US support for the war on terror
Colombia was receiving support from the U.S. since the 1980s. Probably just the same as OTL. Bogota would be a customer for American foreign military sales.
Yeah Plan Colombia would likely have happened regardless. If anything, the Bush admin may even have diverted even more attention/resources that way once Uribe took office without AFghanistan/Iraq being the giant elephant in the room.
Maybe a roundup in Latin America with a no 9/11 could be an interesting chapter? Not to add anything to @Iwanh’s plate since this TL is basically perfect as is but the Pink Tide was starting to rise right around now, so it could be an area of exploration to see some of the butterflies
I am probably brining this up again, but they would not drop the mad bomber missions in GTA III.
I know the movie Zero Dark Thirty couldn't be made now, but what about a movie about the killing of bin Laden in 1998 with John O'Neil as the protagonist?
Maybe a made for TV Movie but ITTL Bin Laden will largely have been forgotten by the public
Part 29: Second Thoughts
Part XXIX
Second Thoughts
Gore launches presidential campaign
Says he’s prepared for a rematch in 2004
Thursday, March 13, 2003, Posted: 6:26 PM EST (2326 GMT)
CARTHAGE, Tennessee (All Politics, March 13) -- Former Vice President and former Democratic Presidential nominee Al Gore officially launched a campaign for the Presidency. In his home state, the same place where he launched his candidacy 4 years ago Gore promised to make Americans' faith in government the centrepiece of his effort to reclaim the Democratic party’s nomination and win the Presidency.
The issue of Gore's candidacy had been an outstanding question since the end of the 2000 election which Gore conceded to President Bush, narrowly losing despite a razor-thin margin in the tipping point state of Florida that require a recall, that issue was settled in Bush’s favour by the Supreme court by a 5-4 majority. Gore had consistently polled higher than any other Democratic candidate. And maintains nationwide support including a strong base of those who are quick to point out he already won the popular vote and are suspect of the Supreme Court’s decision authored by Republican-appointed justices. Speculation about Gore's potential candidacy has fluttered ever since, rising every time he made an appearance, especially as an opponent of George Bush’s economic, foreign and environmental policies.
“This country needs real moral leadership, genuine experience and an uncorrupted authority to lead, this campaign will be tough, tougher than the last, but I am prepared to serve, today I announce to you that, I am indeed a candidate for the president of the United States”
“This is not a debate about the past, I am here to focus on the future, this is a campaign about vision and about the President's lack of vision”
Gore’s announcement was met with support from high-profile Democrats including former President Bill Clinton “Al Gore is the best vice president America has ever had and he is still the best candidate to speak for America's working families and bringing a positive difference to our country” and his wife Senator Hillary Clinton, D- New York “Al Gores energy and ideas are just what the country needs to make a valuable contribution to our country”. Also supportive was Gore's 2000 vice presidential pick Connecticut Senator Joe Lieberman who had pledged not to enter the race if Gore did, he said of the man “He has extraordinary leadership, I have known him for 20 years now and was proud to serve on a ticket with him” He declined to comment if he would be willing to serve on the ticket again.
Gore’s announcement followed weeks of public statements and public appearances in which he often criticized the Bush administration and talked about the direction he believes the country should take. However, though he is the all-around favourite for the nomination, unlike in 2000 when Gore faced only token opposition from a few party mavericks, his loss left many Democrats disappointed and many have been looking for another candidate who might have a better chance at winning the sufficient support to defeat Bush.
Massachusetts Senator John Kerry is one potential candidate who has formed a Presidential exploratory committee, he has consistently polled as Democrats' second choice and has been making some campaign-style appearances and has courted support and money for a campaign.
Former Vermont Governor Howard Dean has already announced his candidacy in an effort to build momentum for his long-shot run. And other big hitter Democrats are exploring launching their own campaigns, including Speaker of the House Dick Gephardt, Senate Leader Tom Daschle, and South Carolina Senator John Edwards.
Al Gore's announcement confirmed many Democrats' expectations, hopes and fears at once. His candidacy had been long suspected, he had been the obvious candidate since the Supreme Courts contentious decision that prematurely stopped the recount in Florida, a recount that most Democrats believe would have handed the state and thus the election to Gore, a majority of Americans continue to feel that President Bush was not legitimately elected president, and it is well known that Gore won the popular vote by over 500,000 votes. Though too many Democrats are quick to point out obvious flaws in Gore's campaign that they feel, flushed a 5 point victory into a virtual tie. Perhaps if Gore hadn’t side-lined the still popular President Clinton, perhaps if he hadn’t selected the moderate Joe Lieberman as his running mate, or had a better, less stilted performance in debates, campaigned stronger, or attacked harder. Any of those small unforced errors kept Gore out of 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue. Could those Democrats really trust Gore to perform better this time, against a sitting President; were enough voters desperate enough to return to the 20th century and drop Bush, some were unconvinced of Gore’s ability to deliver better a second time.
The chief rival that surfaced was Massachusetts Senator John Kerry, who was already running for the Presidency prior to Gores and his own official campaign announcements in the summer. Kerry emerged as one of Bush’s vocal opponents in the Senate and had a depth of experience in government stretching back to his anti-Vietnam war activism as well as good access to campaign funds. Kerry had focused his campaign on attacking Bush for his poor economic and foreign policy due to continued unemployment levels and for hurting the US’s reputation on the world stage. “Every day of this campaign, I will challenge George Bush for fundamentally taking our country in the wrong direction.” Kerry appealed best to the centre of the Democratic Party that wanted most of all to defeat Bush, and ditch Gore.
The third major candidate to jump into the race was Senate leader, South Dakota Senator Tom Daschle who announced just after Gore from his hometown Aberdeen, South Dakota “Though my passion lies currently in the Senate, I am prepared to take that passion to the Presidency”. Perhaps above all others, Daschle had taken the President to task most over the years, becoming the face of Democratic opposition by holding up filibusters against Republican legislation including the vicious battle over the congressional Iraqi resolution, he had become persona non grata by the White House as a result of his staunch opposition, naming him the ‘chief obstructionist’ and some especially vicious attacks accused him of aiding Iraqi dictator Saddam Hussein. A Democrat from the heartland he held moderate policies on some social issues, he supported the partial-birth ban and opposed some gun control measures, he was placed to perform very well in Iowa the first state to vote given the state's geography and his party connections.
Candidates: Senator Kerry, Former Vice President Gore and Senate Majority Leader Daschle
Senator John Edwards was the last of the major players to jump into the race, like Dean, Edward's campaign had a populist tone to it, as the freshman North Carolina Senator he attacked Bush’s policies as only benefiting the wealthy and leaving the working class behind. ''We deserve a president who is close to our people, not the lobbyists,' A president who hears them when they cannot speak, because they've lost their jobs or because they're caring for a child or just because the simple struggle to make ends meet leaves them no time for anything else.''. Unlike Dean, he did not bring up foreign policy (he had been one of the Democrats who supported the President in Iraq) and remained focused on the economy giving his declaration to run in front of a closed North Carolina factory. Also, unlike Dean, Edwards had some party support the type that wanted to replicate Clinton's victory by promoting a fresh-faced charismatic politician with the southern cadence and a salt-of-the-earth feel as opposed to any of the party's old faces.
Candidates: Former Governor Dean and Senator Edwards
The other candidates were African American civil rights activist Al Sharpton, former Illinois Senator Carol Moseley Braun (the first black woman elected to the U.S. Senate) and Ohio congressman Dennis Kucinich. Sharpton largely led an issue-focused campaign, as he said, to prevent the Democratic party drifting away from progressive ideas including threatening to run on a third party ticket if the Democrats didn’t adopt more liberal attitudes toward affirmative action, health care, criminal justice and electoral reform. He had generated a significant following over his decades in activism and prominent arrests for protesting. He said that the Democratic party cannot win the White House next year "unless it expands its base, unless it goes and gets those who have been disaffected.". Moseley Brauns Campaign started with a simple pitch "It is time to take the Men Only sign off the White House door," she placed single-payer health care as her signature issue but struggled to gain much attention at all, raising little in the way of funds and some suspected the campaign was merely an effort to redeem her image or to split the black vote from the Sharpton campaign. Kucinich, the final of the candidates ran on the left of the Democratic party and had the support of the Green Party and former Presidential candidate Ralph Nader he also endorsed single-payer health care, anti-free trade and eliminating tuition fees, his campaign was unabashedly left-wing, openly supporting gay marriage and abortion rights, his quixotic campaign failed to attract much support.
Candidates: Representative Kucinich, Civil Rights activist Al Sharpton and former Senator Carol Moseley Braun
The major Democrat who had been expected to run but ultimately didn’t was Speaker of the House Dick Gephardt, who announced that he would not seek the nomination for President and would ultimately try to help the Democratic party from the House, oppose President Bush and ultimately keep control of the House of representatives. “My job will be to stay in the House and see through a Democratic victory there, and help whoever the eventual nominee is”. His campaign was seen as assured due to his high profile, previous attempt, and his support in Iowa from organized labour and previous campaign. He was said to be deep in the planning stages for his candidacy. But perhaps the entrance of Gore, Kerry and Daschle dissuaded him.
Others who declined to run included Senator Hillary Clinton, the first, first lady to serve in elected office, who was committed to serving her full term in the Senate. " I am intent upon being the best senator that I can be. That is what I want to do," Clinton said. Others who declined included, Florida Senator Bob Graham a moderate who had been regularly considered for the vice presidency and Delaware Senator Joe Biden who considered entering the race but thought that the pack was already too full.
With the candidates in the race, the long march began, Al Gore’s running placed him ahead of his opponents' thanks to his name recognition and experience, followed by Kerry, Daschle, Edwards then Dean with the rest scrambling at the bottom rung. Candidates competed to attack President Bush in order to stand out amongst the pack, taking apart the President’s economic agenda and throughout the summer as candidates began their formal campaigns the heat began to turn up. The Iraqi disarmament crisis interrupted the campaign cycle and pushed foreign policy front and centre, Gore placed himself fully opposed to the idea of war with Iraq without U.N. approval or an imminent threat, and said that the whole process called into question the President's diplomacy “We should advance an agenda of peace first and foremost, I worked with the nations of the world with President Clinton to create the Good Friday agreement in Northern Ireland, we used vigorous diplomacy and our military to end ethnic cleansing in Bosnia and Kosovo and we worked to ease tensions and further US ties with our former enemies, instead what I see from the White House is an effort to manipulate facts and distort the truth in pursuit of a political agenda”. Dean too was openly opposed to intervention and also took the opportunity to hit the establishment as the only candidate fully outside of the beltway he took broad anti-Bush criticism being the only candidate who would fully repeal all of Bush’s tax decreases. Dean's attacks on the Washington insiders gave him an advantage in early candidate debates and his blistering attacks pulled him out of the no-hopers category, and he briefly peaked at 3rd place but his efforts to turn a base of fervent so-called ‘Deaniacs’ into a full-fledged movement stalled as the Iraq crisis slowly faded from the public, and his campaign donations began to stumble then he settled into a low 5th place in the polls.
Gore’s campaign also met some trouble, as the campaign continued Gore’s lead began to be whittled down, despite the universal name recognition he had two stains on his record, his 2000 loss and his political makeup. No Democrat wanted to repeat the 2000 election and renominating Gore seemed a sure-fire way to do that “Gore lost that election” said one unnamed Democratic party staffer “he lost those debates, he lost that campaign to Bush” when Democrats were asked what factor mattered most to them in a candidate the main response was beating Bush. Then it was Gore’s character, the calm centrist southerner did not make him the most excitable candidate on the trail, most journalists often complained about being on the campaign trail with Gore, this campaign needed to be different Gore told his staff “last time I focused too much on polls and tactics this time I am pouring my heart and my vision into it, let the chips fall where they may”. He adopted a more aggressive, occasionally even mocking tone, critiquing Bush’s lack of principles and poor leadership skills, the attacks allowed him to maintain his lead through 2003 and he received a boost when Dean citing a lack of funding dropped out and endorsed Gore “If Al Gore were President the country would not be in the situation it is today, with his judgement and common sense our country will once again have a strong and steady leadership”.
Howard Dean endorses Al Gore
The chips seemed to be falling in place for Gore to replay his 2000 primary victory, with his other three opponents Kerry, Daschle and Edwards competing for second place. The Kerry campaign despite initial polls that showed him putting up a strong fight against Gore and having a higher approval rating and likability than Gore, the campaign struggled to distinguish itself and gain donations leading to Kerry financing his campaign with his family funds and shaking up his campaign staff regularly, he began to pour everything into a come from behind victory in Iowa and New Hampshire and pitched himself as the candidate best able to defeat Bush nicknaming himself ‘The Real Deal’.
Daschle was in the same boat as Kerry who very much needed the Iowa caucus to go his way, to build the momentum necessary to carry him forward, he presented himself as the best legislator among the candidates, best able to cross political lines to get things done and turned the tables by presenting Bush as the obstructionist who had prevented economic stimulus, campaign finance reform or Medicare expansion. But Daschle suffered from consistent right-wing criticism stronger than any other candidates due to his high-profile attacks on Bush’s foreign policy, with Gore’s more liberal side on show Daschle hoped that he would be the candidate best positioned to appeal to moderates and defeat Bush, pushing his fiscal responsibility and reform. But Daschle struggled on the trail, battling hard over the airwaves it became clear that Daschle’s message wasn’t taking hold, still struggling in the pack in Iowa, Daschle doubled down and put everything on the state.
John Edwards's campaign fared better, seen as a rising star in the Democratic party a made-for-television politician, and something of a media darling, many had expected him to run for the Presidency at a later date 2008 or 2012, but Edwards shunned the political class with an early run in 2004. His campaign was initially small and was lumped at the back of the pack, but his message was different from every other candidate instead of trying to out bash Bush, Edwards focused on the economy, the price of prescription drugs, and job creation. Edwards caught up in the polls as Dean past his peak and Daschle receded nationally and Edwards entered 3rd place. Most of the criticism for Edwards was his inexperience, being a first term Senator compared to the veterans Gore and Kerry, Edwards had built a strong chest of funding he spent on advertising in Iowa and New Hampshire focused solely on the economy and stayed away from attack ads, even while Gore, Kerry and Daschle tore into Bush’s Iraq policy Edwards struck a tone that largely agreed with the President “The United States must be prepared to act with as many allies as possible to address this threat.”. Edwards still had trouble defeating either of the Democratic front runners and failed to poll ahead of them anywhere, but still Edwards decided to bet big and announced he would not run for re-election in North Carolina, his campaign focused on his positive message and some suspected that he was no longer running for the Presidency and was more vying for the vice presidency or a role in a future Democratic administration by raising his profile with his populist message, critics noted that Edwards did not vote dramatically out of step from either Kerry or Daschle but Edwards doubled down on his economic message “There is one candidate guaranteed to wake up every morning thinking about you” speaking to factory workers “one who supports not just free trade but fair trade,'' .
During the last weeks of the campaign prior to voting it became clear that a three-horse race had emerged, as Daschle’s support dwindled into the single digits, the Gore campaign also lost its lead due to Kerry and Edwards's cash and energy infusion into the state of Iowa, the Edwards campaign was significantly aided by a few major endorsements including Iowa Senator Tom Harkin (a prominent Gore backer in 2000) and the Des Moines Register the state’s largest newspaper, calling him the “best candidate not just to defeat Bush but to bring positive change and new energy to America”. There were numerous debates between the Democratic candidates and some of the most notable moments included debates over free trade agreements, national security and Bush’s tax cuts issues that largely placed Senator Edwards across from Kerry and Gore but the context of which was broadly positive.
(Left to Right) Al Gore, John Edwards, John Kerry and Tom Daschle campaigning in Iowa
Tens of thousands gathered for the first key test of the presidential election season: the Iowa caucuses. The field of Democratic hopefuls shifted with the result, what seemed to be a runaway victory for the Gore camp only a few weeks prior steadily crept into a tight contest between Gore, Kerry, Daschle and Edwards with polls favouring Edwards then Gore then Kerry then Daschle, the key reason for Gore’s slippage was voters reconsidering his electability ''I thought he was going to be the only chance we had to get Bush out of there'' one caucus goer said. But now, she said, ''I'm just not sure anymore that he's the best one to go up against him'' And candidates bussed in hundreds of activists and organizers to drum up support for the caucuses
2004 Democratic Iowa Caucus
Senator John Edwards of North Carolina won the Iowa Caucus on Monday catapulting him to the top tier of presidential contenders who only a few weeks ago was expected to place 4th in the contest. His victory has significantly dented Gore’s front-runner status pushing him into third place. “Tonight we started a movement to change this country that will sweep across America,” Edwards said, practically giddy, celebrating his victory in Des Moines “Only 2 weeks ago I never would have believed it”, “Other candidates outspent us, they had pre-built organisations while we were the little engine that could”.
Senator John Kerry of Massachusetts came in second, a race he labelled a ‘key part of his campaign’ and will likely keep him going in the contest. His strong showing threatened to humiliate Mr Gore who has led all national polls for over a year and until recently expected a first or second-place finish in the state.
Edwards jubilance compared to the more taciturn Gore supporters “I am not disappointed, because this is only the beginning, we took a hit but I can guarantee you I am not out”. Gore Supporters pointed to his strong national support and his strength in the southern states later in the contest.
Senator Daschle of South Dakota finished 4th a devastating showing that led the Senator to end his bid for the presidency, “My campaign for the nomination may be over but I will not stop fighting for every American” offering congratulations to his rivals and lending his support to the eventual nominee.
The Iowa campaign quickly shifted the election into a three-man race heading into the New Hampshire primary, electrifying the Edwards campaign, keeping the Kerry campaign chugging and dealing a blow to the Gore campaign who was facing high expectations given his frontrunner status. Time would tell if Edwards could capitalize on the momentum that Iowa afforded him.
Iowa Caucus Results
2004 Iowa Democratic Presidential Caucus
(Clockwise) John Edwards celebrates, Al and Tipper Gore, John and Teresa Kerry
With the focus on the Democrats the White House got to work building its own Bush Cheney re-election team, ready to go toe to toe with whichever of the Democrats came out on top, most expected Gore to be the victor and the Republican leadership was practically salivating at the idea of a rematch, only seeing the upside of going up against the already defeated Gore, with the incumbency advantage on their side, though the President was not hugely popular across the country (His approvals at the mid '40s), his staff were hoping that months of Democratic infighting would leave Bush looking like the clear strong candidate. This is what made the Bush team even more furious when Republican Rhode Island Senator, Lincoln Chafee, one of the moderates Republicans who had consistently challenged the President in occasional feisty language laid down the gauntlet and said he intended to mount a primary challenge to the President. During the Iraqi disarmament crisis, Chafee said that he was concerned about the leadership and direction of the Republican party and could not support the President going forward, determined to send a message he made himself a candidate for the Republican 2004 nomination starting with the New Hampshire primary. His announcement was made in a press conference from New Hampshire, Chafee laid out why he opposed the President “The Republican Party is supposed to be a big tent party, but this President is dividing the party” He cited the Presidents tax policy, ballooning the nation's deficit, ignoring environmental concerns, extreme conservative social views and a dangerous foreign policy, all views that Chafee thought broke pledges then-candidate Bush had made in his campaign for President. His declaration certainly had less flash than most, the usually quiet Senator made a splash with his public proclamation to challenge the President and his open attacks on the legislative failures. “Since day one, this President has ignored a lot of the country while expecting loyalty, I came to the conclusion that I could no longer support this President and that I owed it to the President to state that publicly and not hide away ... Today I am formally entering the race for the Republican nomination for President because we need to show that there is more to be done to solve our issues, the President called himself a uniter, not a divider, he promised his foreign policy would be humble, not arrogant and he would regulate polluters, these promises have all been broken, this simply isn’t an administration that can be trusted”.
The run could constitute a serious threat to the Bush administration, though they held immense confidence that Chafee would not occupy the White House in this, or any universe, all the analysts were aware of the impact a primary challenge had on a sitting President. Truman, Johnson, Ford, and Carter all faced one resulting in them either withdrawing from the race or losing the general election, no one was more cognizant of the threat than the President himself who recalled reassuring his father that Pat Buchanan’s primary challenge in 92 wouldn’t be a threat to him, only to learn of the consequences later. Chafee’s announcement forced the Bush-Cheney campaign into overdrive and the President’s schedule became packed with more campaign stops determined to smother the Chafee campaign in its infancy drumming up enthusiasm for the administration, singing the praises of the recovering economy, applauding the impact of his tax cuts (the ones that Chafee opposed) “Some people may say that that money isn’t enough for people, well maybe for those rolling in cash, but to some people that’s a lot and it makes a difference” he said in a hasetely arranged stop in Concord, New Hampshire; and the Bush war chest was quickly fired up, bombarding the state with advertisements, 4 years ago the Bush team neglected New Hampshire a potentially killer error that allowed John McCain to become a serious threat, today there would be no such error, supporters were mobilized and a campaign called Chafee the ‘Number one RINO’ (Republican in name only) or the ‘biggest ass in the Republican party’ and the polls seemed to show the Bush teams efforts were working as Bush gained a 63% - 18% lead over Chafee with the rest undecided.
(Left) George Bush campaigns in New Hampshire, (Right) Lincoln Chafee announces his primary campaign
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And Edwards who never met Noelle Hunter on the 2008 campaign trail would be an interesting take. He wasn’t known as a ladies man in the way Clinton was, after all, until that incident
Andrei cel sexy
Banned
Thanks to a worse chechen war do you guys think that Chechnya will gain independence? And interesting it is that Putin thanks to this war is more radicalised and showed his True colors earlier. What do you guys think will this alternate Putin do in 2014 Ukrainian Maidan?
Simply never, the Chechen war might be longer and a little bit bloodier but, in the end, there is simply no way for the Chechens to win. With regards to Ukraine, if the Ukrainians don't attack the Russians and the European Union still signs the Minsk Agreement, Putin will do the same thing that he did in OTL. Russia was already prepared for war in 2014 (to be more accurate the Ukrainian army at the time was a lot worse than the one of today) but decided not to directly intervene because he wanted to reach an agreement over Ukraine with the West. We could even see the war of OTL 2022 be avoided if the UE and USA feel that the Russians are not bluffing and force Ukraine to adhere to the Minsk 2 Agreements. Yes, Crimea will be lost but Donbas would be reintegrated into Ukraine and all the suffering would have been avoided.
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