Right, because of the Dotcom Bubble Burst and the other stuff like Worldcom Bankrupcy and so on. Because these financial issues are the main talking points of the early 2000s, this will change the narrative formed around the Great Recesson, with all of them being grouped together as this period of fiscal irresponsabiltiy and thus turning the sudden eruption into more of a rapidly growing geyser. This change of the narrative will have political, economic, societal and cultural rammifications no doubt and I'm looking forward to seeing it.
Geronimo : What if Osama Bin Laden was killed prior to 9/11?
- Thread starter Iwanh
- Start date
Without 9/11 and the subsequent invasion of Iraq Bush II is likely to be a one-term president.
Just caught up on this. One knock on effect is that with Schwarzenegger staying out of politics, it could well hurt the Republican party and Bush come election time. The guy was popular at least on the national level, so much so he was a principal speaker at the RNC in 2004. Couple that with no rally-round-the-flag, nearly going to war with Iraq with even less pretense than OTL, and what @CountDVB said regarding a bigger fallout from the collapse of financial and energy companies in the early 2000s due to irresponsibility, and things aren’t looking rosy for the GOP in the next election.
Whatever Democrat that wins 2004 is getting a poison chalice tho
Especially if it’s Edwards
Honestly, they’ll do all right until it hits the fan, though the incumbent may still be able to run on being the one to fix it and blame his predecessor. The GOP winning in 2008 would still be a one termed because they’d guarantee a lackluster “recovery”
Well it may not be as bad as OTL due to no distraction overseas and the spending on two wars. Further, if the Democrats make wins in 04 then they could take some action to partially undercut some causes of the Great Recession although I don’t think they could avoid it completely. A lot of the seeds were planted back in the 90s with giving out home loans to people who really couldn’t pay and derivative trading wasn’t really on most lawmakers’ radar until it blew up.
Hurricane Katrina will still suck (a lot of things are due to state-level government) but it’s hard to mess up OTL’s bungled response any worse.
Yeah. In fact, given what Gore wanted to do, he could accidentally make the housing market happen sooner though that's only if the GOP weren't impeding him (something about the low income housing, am not sure). That said, that's Gore. I'm unsure of the othered when approaching the Recession.
Yeah, it'd be close. He would be a pretty lukewarm president and his loss perhaps more because of the Dems flubbing it. That said, it all depends who runs. Did we still lose Senator Wellstone in the plane crash or does he still live? Future presidential run from him could be intriguing.
That or he becomes Obama's VP and has an influence.
Honestly, I do think that the GOP will still win the White House, but their loss in 2008 will be much more painful and with the focus on the economy, that could lead to some interesting places there.
If the economy is good he’ll win but many Democrats will still hate him. They’ll think he was appointed. Remember how deep the anger towards Bush was pre-9/11
The economy will be rather tepid I think. I mean, thing is, besides the tax cuts, what exactly would we have done without 9/11?
Three one-termer US Presidents in a row? Wow!
So what you're saying is that Bush will lose to a Democrat in 2004, the Democrat will lose to another Republican in 2008 due to the 2008 Recession, and that Republican will lose to another Democrat in 2012 due a poor economic recovery?
Actually, while there is a closer chance for Bush to lose in 2004, he will scrape a win, but barely.
If a Dem wins in 2004, then 2008 becomes tricky because making the Recession earlier or later by a year changes who wins, obviously.
But yeah, the GOP if winning in 2008 would likely lose to the Dems in 2012 for poor economy ecovery,
Well, more like because they think just cutting taxes and austerity measures will be enough, and thus make things worse.
What I want t say could get me into trouble.
But I cannot see the GOP wanting to bail out whomever.
They’d only do it if things were getting real bad, but it’d stil be so underwhelming it’d doom them. Hell, I expect Sanders to become a prominent voice much quicker along with the progressive wave arrive several years sooner, coinciding with the 99% protests evolving into an earlier political movement
Without the Iraq War I have a very hard time seeing Obama rise to prominence on the national stage
I'm pretty sure Bush is planning the iraq war in TTL so Obama could still rise.