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As we all know, Germany had a quite "unfortunate" 20th century. I, as a demographics fanate, was interested in how Germany's population would be different without both world wars and the heavy emigration that occured. I decided to post the results here.

I will explain how I calculated beneath, but for the people who just want to know the result, here it is: Germany would have roughly 120 million inhabitants (disclaimer: my own calculation, I am not saying this is 100% correct) now. Quite amazing to think how an already economical powerhouse would be even more powerful with 40 million extra inhabitants. Also, one can wonder if this would be sustainable on Germany's level. Could this possible have led to water or food shortages?

Some might call this calvulation too optimistic, but well, I simply wanted to make this "unfortunate" century a "fortunate" century for Germany :).

Here is the calculation:
I start in 1850. Germany's population is 33 million. Between 1850 and 1900, 7 million German emigrants leave for the US. Now, I make this 10 million emigrants in total with this rough estimate: there are 46 million German Americans, and ROUGHLY 20 million other German <insert denomyn>. So, I assumed German emigrants to other countries but USA were emigrating in the same proportion and "multiplying" at the same rate as German americans. Thus, if 7 million equals for 46mmillion, roughly 3 million equals for 20 million. Im not statin that these 3 and 7 million account for all the 46 and 20 (respectively) million, but it is a rough estimate to get the total number of German emigranta from 1850 to 1900.

Then I assume the following: about 1/4th reemmigrates to Germany: this would leave a total number of -7.5 million of net migrants (I assume immigrants to Germany, aside from the returning emigranrs, is negligible). This would give a net migrant rate of on average -3.6 migrants per year per thousand inhabitants (net migrants divided by 50 divided by average population Germany 1850-1900, not totally correct but pretty near). As Germany grew from 1850 and 1900 from 33 to 54 million, this would mean an annual growth rate of 0.99%. Substract the -3.6 net migrant rate (as in this version I take no emigrants) and you get an annual growth rate of 1.35%.

This would mean a population of 65 million in 1900, instead of 54 million. Next I use a simpler method: by using Wikipedia "Demographics of Germany" Vital Statistics. These give the Crude Birth Rate and Crude Death Rate from 1900 on for every year. The annual birth surplus rate (netto change rate) is also given, which is the growth rate minus the net migrant rate. So, I use these numbers to calculate population growth till the onset of WW1. The population of Germany on the First of January 1914 would be 78 million.

Now, I assume WW1 doesnt happen. What I do is the following: I let the birth rate of Germany drop with 0.5 births per thousand inhabitants per year, while I let the death rate drop with 0.1 deaths per year, to match the growth decline that was happening in Germany. This gives revised growth rates, and then I use the normal netto change rates given in the vital statistics table till 1940.

This gives a population of 98 million at the start of 1940.

Now I was doubting three cases: have the WW2 happen, with the baby boom, or no WW2 but no baby boom or have Hitler rise (and thus higher birth rates, which happened, due to the pro natalist laws of the nazies) but without Ww2 happening. I chose the last one. Now this might be one of the weaker choices I have made in terms of credibility of happening, but lets just say Hitler and his party would eventually fade away in history, but with the higher birth rates happening.

Crude birth rates were about 20 because of the Nazies, but I believe, if WW2 wouldn't have happensd, these birth rates would have automatically declined again, according to the laws of the Demographic transition model. So, for the time frame from 1940 to 1970, I use an average birth rate of 17.5, and a death rate of 11.5 (which was the average for Germany between 1946 and 1970). This gives an annual growth rate forGermany of 0.6% a year. The population of Germany would then be 117 million (!) at the end of the 1970 year.

For the case of the timeframe 1970 to 1990 I use a lazy trick, namely simply having the population of real life Germany in 1990 divided by the population of Germany in real life of 1971, multiplied of the population of my calculation in 1971. This would give the population of Germany of my version in 1990 if the Germany in my version had the same growth as real life Germany had between 1971 and 1990. I chose this because in this time frame there were more immigrants to Germany than emigrants, and as I wanted for Germany to have a more "fortunate" 20th century.

Between 1991 and 2000, growth rates of East Germany in real life were negative because of the extremely low fertility rates then there. In my version, the drop in fertility rate wouldn't have
happened after 1991 in East Germany as in my version, East Germany wouldn't be communistic (WW2 never happened) and thus the fall of Soviet Union wouldn't have such impact. As birth rates in general for Germany declined from 11 in 1990 to 10 in 1991, this would mean without the fall in fertility in Easr Germany, growth rates would be 0.1% plus more. Thus, at the beginning of 2001, Germany's population would be 124 million.

Then, I use the same growth as real life Germany had between 2001 and 2017. Population would be 125 million in 2017.

And well, that's it. I would love to hear remarks and have a discussion about this calculation or what for implication this higher population would be. What do you think?

Thanks for reading, it was a lot of text I know.
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