Germany's fate in a early WW1 allied victory

With a few military missteps ca. 1915 and Charles and Austria-Hungary quitting the war in late 1916/1917 perhaps leading to an earlier German loss at the hands of UK/France/Russia, what happens to the German state? I was reading a bit about the more extreme post WW2-partition plans, and was wondering if anything like that was on the table for Germany in any post WW1-plans. Is some kind of vague restoration of a new German Confederation feasible? Or is basically OTL's territorial cessions more or less the worst that could have happened?
 
Nah. The earlier the loss the better. If it's early enough Germany probably has to pay reparations, limit its army some, and depose the Kaiser (possibly in favour of his son). The later it goes on, and the more men die in trenches, the tougher the demands will be. Culminating in OTL's Versailles Treaty.
 
Strikes me as worse for Germany if they lose early enough to have to owe territorial demands and reparations to 3 major powers (Britain, France and Russia) and their small allies instead of just 2 (Britain and France and Belgium). that is especially so if Allied Russia sides with France over the Ruhr issue.
 
Nah. The earlier the loss the better. If it's early enough Germany probably has to pay reparations, limit its army some, and depose the Kaiser (possibly in favour of his son). The later it goes on, and the more men die in trenches, the tougher the demands will be. Culminating in OTL's Versailles Treaty.

I agree with this.

However Germany will have to pay a very high price even if the death toll is less catastrophic than OTL.

Germany proved in 1914 that not only It was a threat to the balance of powers because it was too powerful but that It acted as a rogue State.

So although It seems obvious that the eastern frontiers of Europe will be very different from 1918 OTL (no restored Poland and Baltic States since Russia had not collapsed in 1915) and that Britain will never accept France getting more than Alsace-Moselle and maybe Saarland, the inner structure of Germany may be upset.

It would be possible that the southern german States be separated from the Reich and that Rhineland become an independant State.
 

Insider

Banned
I agree with this.

However Germany will have to pay a very high price even if the death toll is less catastrophic than OTL.

Germany proved in 1914 that not only It was a threat to the balance of powers because it was too powerful but that It acted as a rogue State.

So although It seems obvious that the eastern frontiers of Europe will be very different from 1918 OTL (no restored Poland and Baltic States since Russia had not collapsed in 1915) and that Britain will never accept France getting more than Alsace-Moselle and maybe Saarland, the inner structure of Germany may be upset.

It would be possible that the southern german States be separated from the Reich and that Rhineland become an independant State.
They declared the war on Russia because they were bound by alliance with Austria - Hungary and they have already said it in public that they would support its ally. Hardly something a rogue state do. If you want to look for a rogue State in early XX century I think it would be Serbia. To back down in July 1914 would turn Germany to laughing stock and propably cause the only people - backed military putsch in history.
 
Germany loses Alsace-Moselle, and some lands in the east - likely Poznania.
Austria-Hungary likely loses Galicia-Lodomeria, Istria, Trentino-Alto-Adige and Bosnia-Herzegovina.
 

Deleted member 94680

I agree with this.

However Germany will have to pay a very high price even if the death toll is less catastrophic than OTL.

Germany proved in 1914 that not only It was a threat to the balance of powers because it was too powerful but that It acted as a rogue State.

So although It seems obvious that the eastern frontiers of Europe will be very different from 1918 OTL (no restored Poland and Baltic States since Russia had not collapsed in 1915) and that Britain will never accept France getting more than Alsace-Moselle and maybe Saarland, the inner structure of Germany may be upset.

It would be possible that the southern german States be separated from the Reich and that Rhineland become an independant State.

You agree with @Dathi THorfinnsson yet posit a scenario that's worse than OTL Versailles? Okay..?

As others have said the earlier the peace, the better the scenario for Germany. If it's pre-1916, there's every chance there'd only be a status quo ante bellum peace and the 'Great Powers' would get ready for round two, sooner than OTL.
 

Cook

Banned
They declared the war on Russia because...

Actually they declared war on Russia because the Russian government had ordered a general mobilisation of all military districts, including the western districts abutting East Prussia.
 

Cook

Banned
They declared the war on Russia because...

Actually they declared war on Russia because the Russian government had ordered a general mobilisation of all military districts, including the western districts abutting East Prussia.

...OTL's territorial cessions more or less the worst that could have happened?

OTL's result is the worst that could happen because Germany was completely exhausted by the time it asked for an armistice; it no longer had any choice other than to accept whatever terms were offered. If instead, following some significant setback, the German leadership had proposed opening negotiations, then they would have received much more favourable terms - simply because if they didn't they would continue fighting. They grave mistake they made was to seek a purely military solution, forgetting that war is the continuation of politics by other means.
 

Deleted member 1487

Pretty much the Allies rip Germany apart and vassalize her. Now, unlike after 1918, they have the power to do so and with Russian help to enforce it.
 
It depends if the surrender is conditionnal and the peace treaty is negotiated.
If the peace is negotiated, then it will be lighter on Germany - not a diktat. But Alsace-Lorraine will be returned to France.
If it is not negotiated, it will resemble strongly Versailles -but with Russia eager to apply it.
 
As others have said the earlier the peace, the better the scenario for Germany. If it's pre-1916, there's every chance there'd only be a status quo ante bellum peace and the 'Great Powers' would get ready for round two, sooner than OTL.

Why the bolded part in particular? What the powers don't get their fill of war for a generation unless its 4 or 5 years long? They face an unprecedentedly nasty war that's briefer, so they all think, "hey, we've got to go back for some more"?
 
Since their Army was in a state of mutiny in the summer of 1917, & the success of the suppression not at all certain the French government has a powerful incentive to negotiate something at that point. If the Germans are willing to trade off Alsace Lorraine, or a portion thereof a significant part of the weary French citizenry is going to see that as 'good enough'. There would be other expectations from France, but that would be a hell of a start. further if word gets out that the Germans offered a cease fire & negotiations & the French government refused heads may roll, literally. Most nations were full sick of the war by 1917 & a sincere offer of a cease fire by France or Germany is going to be nearly unstoppable if it becomes public knowledge.
 

Deleted member 1487

Since their Army was in a state of mutiny in the summer of 1917, & the success of the suppression not at all certain the French government has a powerful incentive to negotiate something at that point. If the Germans are willing to trade off Alsace Lorraine, or a portion thereof a significant part of the weary French citizenry is going to see that as 'good enough'. There would be other expectations from France, but that would be a hell of a start. further if word gets out that the Germans offered a cease fire & negotiations & the French government refused heads may roll, literally. Most nations were full sick of the war by 1917 & a sincere offer of a cease fire by France or Germany is going to be nearly unstoppable if it becomes public knowledge.
No German government could survive offering A-L in a negotiation without being militarily defeated to the point that the Allies/Entente could just take it.
 
Depending just how early the War might end, the fate is variable. I think I agree that most likely it will be a negotiated peace. They may lose their colonies and pay money. Possibly A/L if really trumped on the battlefield.
 

Deleted member 94680

Why the bolded part in particular? What the powers don't get their fill of war for a generation unless its 4 or 5 years long? They face an unprecedentedly nasty war that's briefer, so they all think, "hey, we've got to go back for some more"?

Because an early, negotiated, peace where "everyone gets something" also is a peace where "everyone is missing something". It took Germany - broken, poor, denuded militarily and missing territory - 20 years to go for a second attempt. Why would a Germany with more money, no military restrictions and probably no territorial reductions take so long to try to achieve it's goals? Remember in the 20 years between WWI and WWII there were a string of armed conflicts, wars and 'incidents' over the Eastern European territories. A stronger Germany, with Prussia intact and the Heer in it's dominant position in society, would almost certainly get involved in the Lithuanian/Soviet/Polish quagmire.
 
Nah. The earlier the loss the better. If it's early enough Germany probably has to pay reparations, limit its army some, and depose the Kaiser (possibly in favour of his son). The later it goes on, and the more men die in trenches, the tougher the demands will be. Culminating in OTL's Versailles Treaty.
They'd probably lose Alsace- Lorraine and the colonies.
 
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