Germany without 1871?

As I sit on a bus on my way to Boston for a convention, I'm reading a bit about Germany in the 1860s. One thing which I just came across is that in 1870, the pro-Prussian cabinet in Munich was replaced with one dominated by the Patriot Party, which was led by particularists opposed to continued German centralization.

I don't think Bismack's motives asre as clear cut as susano thinks; it's not clear to me that Bismarck didn't want a united Germany, ultimately, even if he called it an "unripe fruit" in the 1860s.

But even in 1871, it was a very federal state. Without the Franco-Prussian War, what would it look like?
 
Well my first observation is that the Southern German states have no reason to join in the Northern German Confederation. Now, this doesn't mean that they won't in the future, but it's up in the air whether they will. This could mean the Austria-Prussian rivalry over these states continues, although I doubt Austria could really compete with Prussia at this point. This is also an interesting scenario with regard to France with the Second French Empire remaining intact. Perhaps we could see a Franco-Austrian alliance?
 

Valdemar II

Banned
A interesting aspect are what happens to the minor members of the North German Confederation, Whether they will be seen as a integrated part of a North German state or whether the North German Confederation will be seen as some kind of EU-like construction. Of course in pure industry and population NGC or Prussia alone will be bigger than France, but the difference won't be as overwhelming as OTL, making Prussia/NGC seem less of a threat to the balance of power. if that happens we could see a Austrian-Prussian-British alliance against Russian and French expansion, while the South German states joins Switzerland in neutrality.

But I think the South German states will keep going through pure inerti, of course their continued survival may dampen the the pan-Germans in Austria-Hungary.
 
As I sit on a bus on my way to Boston for a convention, I'm reading a bit about Germany in the 1860s.

Off Topic: Off to PAX East? Hell to the yeah! I can't make it to this, the Mecca of our culture, but go see The Protomen. You will not be disappointed.

On Topic: It partly depends on what prevents the war. A Spaniard is lined up for succession? Could work. The problem of Spain could cause any number of conflicts though. OTL just happened to be a war between France and Prussia. I, for one, would like to see Bavaria go to Austria somehow, but that is supremely unlikely.
 
Any thoughts on what happens in the Near Eastern crisis of 1877-8?

OTL, France basically kept her head down, but will Emperor Napoleon IV do do? And if not, which side will he be on?
 

Susano

Banned
Perhaps Germany forming without the South?

That already was the North German Confederation, which really was already as tight-formed as the German Empire - more so because the new members of it got special rights.

Hm, to be honest, Im not sure what would happen. If theres no Franco-German War, then I think the main source of unrest in Europe will remain Napoleon III, and thus the question most likely is what hes up to...
 
That already was the North German Confederation, which really was already as tight-formed as the German Empire - more so because the new members of it got special rights.

Hm, to be honest, Im not sure what would happen. If theres no Franco-German War, then I think the main source of unrest in Europe will remain Napoleon III, and thus the question most likely is what hes up to...


I'd love a TL with a Second Napoleonic Wars, where Nappy III, Austria, and the South German states take on Italy, Spain, and the NGC(Prussia). It is possible that the Southern German States could drift toward France, if there is a larger nation to their North which has factions wanting to annex them.
 
How long would Napoleon III last though? Especially with Britain against them again (would it be safe to say that this is inevitable?)

and a stronger United States in the mix here as well.
 
How long would Napoleon III last though? Especially with Britain against them again (would it be safe to say that this is inevitable?)

Um, no? The man was nuts about a British alliance, and as for us, we never minded him. We'd been among the most receptive to his new regime back in the 1850s.

I think that it's possible for NIII's regime to last at least as long as he does if he switches to a sounder constitutional basis and retreats from politics to a large extent, and we were seeing the first steps in that direction. That's hardly to say he couldn't fall, but "inevitable"? Nah.

and a stronger United States in the mix here as well.

After the ACW, the USA was increasingly able to act as the hemispheric power implied by the Monroe Doctrine, but it didn't, and probably won't, take any particular interest in European power-games until the European powers have an extensive colonial or world war which messes with American interests.
 
Was there any thought given at the time to an EU arrangement? Could Bismarck or Wilhelm II been capable of the thought process whereby the various nations would unite in a single economic group without political union? Or,as I suspect, was nationalism too over reaching at the time?
 
I'm not as sure as everyone else that southebrn Germany will remain seperate. Yea, they're Catholic. More Catholic than Munster? Or the Prussian Rhineland?

Look at how widespread support was for the Franco-Prussian War there. Bavarians didn't debate stabbing Prussia in the back. Some of this was the blowback from 1866, but it was more than that.
 
How long would Napoleon III last though?


Well, OTL he died in 1873, so he doesn't have to last much longer

If still on the throne, however, he would probably have postponed the bladder stone operation which killed him. Most likely he abdicates in June 1874, on his son's 18th birthday.

After that it's a question of how long Napoleon IV lasts.
 

Valdemar II

Banned
I'm not as sure as everyone else that southebrn Germany will remain seperate. Yea, they're Catholic. More Catholic than Munster? Or the Prussian Rhineland?

It has nothing to do with religion, Wüttermberg was majority Protestant, and so was Ansbach, Pfalz and Bayreuth in Bavaria. The reason they will stay seperate are because Prussia doesn't wish to include them in NGC, the fact that they're economical viable states and pure inerti.

Look at how widespread support was for the Franco-Prussian War there. Bavarians didn't debate stabbing Prussia in the back. Some of this was the blowback from 1866, but it was more than that.

Yes there's a lot of popular support for unification, but so was there among the Germans in Austria in the same periode.
 
Um, no? The man was nuts about a British alliance, and as for us, we never minded him. We'd been among the most receptive to his new regime back in the 1850s.

Hmmmmm, true but do you think those ties would be close enough to get them from staring each other down and reviving their historical rivalries again when the colonial scrambles begin? I see a Franco-Austrian grouping, and then it's really a toss up with the UK being the deciding factor involved. Prussia is naturally going to stay cozy with the Russians which isn't likely to spawn great feelings with the Brits but I'm not convinced it will be enough to push the UK totally into a French Austrian camp. And the British might actually decide to keep the natural balance that such a 2v2 alliance seems to create with their splendid isolation.
 
Hmmmmm, true but do you think those ties would be close enough to get them from staring each other down and reviving their historical rivalries again when the colonial scrambles begin? I see a Franco-Austrian grouping, and then it's really a toss up with the UK being the deciding factor involved. Prussia is naturally going to stay cozy with the Russians which isn't likely to spawn great feelings with the Brits but I'm not convinced it will be enough to push the UK totally into a French Austrian camp. And the British might actually decide to keep the natural balance that such a 2v2 alliance seems to create with their splendid isolation.

Oh, absolutely. We could end up on the other side of the fence from France (although the Bonapartist Anglophilia doesn't help this, stranger things have happened); we could end up in a colonial war, even. But it is not "safe to say this is inevitable" as ENZ posited.
 

Susano

Banned
Surprisingly ;) and unfortunately I must agree with Valdemar: If nothing happens in Central Europe, then inertia will reign. Of course, how likely is "nothing" happening in the long run? Hence why I wondered about Napoleon III, he is the most likely trouble maker...

Hm. But if indeed nothing does happen, then if William I dies on schedule in 1888... well, his successor Frederick III. was kinda sympathetic to national-liberal groups (even if that has been exaggerated at times). And if not sick as IOTL he will certainly dismiss Bismarck. Then everything is indeed open again. But not before both William and Bismarck are removed from the scene, I think.
 
Consider where we are in 1870. The North German Confederation contains some 29 million souls. The southern states are members of a Zollverein with the North German Federation, 8.5 million strong. Prussia has ninety percent of the production in mining and metallurgy, half the output in textiles, and two-thirds of all workers employed in the core industries in Germany. Departing form ties with North Germany would be economic suicide. The Zollverein contained representatives appointed by princes at its council, and a lower house elected by popular vote. Baden, under its liberal Duke, had tried to join the North German Confederation.

Okay, the Luxembourg Crisis illustrated some flaws. When Napoleon blundered into the negotiation with the King of Holland over the purchase of Luxembourg, he immediately unleashed a storm of indignation in Germany, which was adroitly exploited by Bismarck. Under treaties with Prussia after 1866, the south German states increasingly aligned theirmilitary forces along the Prussian model. On the other hand, Bavaria and Württemberg had in this crisis not been willing unreservedly to commit themselves to war alongside Prussia. The alignment of the South German with the Prussian armed forces met much resistance and in many quarters a militia on the Swiss model would have been preferred. The demands of military service on the Prussian model and high military expenditure were factors feeding the antiPrussian sentiment in the south.

So, come 1877, when the Prussian Constitution is being renegotiated, what's going to happen? Inertia doesn't seem likely.
 
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