Germany Wins WWI and Experiences a Revolution in the 1940s

CaliGuy

Banned
Here is my scenario here: Hindenburg and Ludendorff (H & L) decide to delay the resumption of unrestricted submarine warfare (USW) on the U.S. in January 1917. Since Russia descends into revolution shortly afterwards, H & L decide to completely scrap their plans to resume USW. A year later, after the Bolshevik Revolution occurs in Russia, Germany acquires massive Eastern European territories in the Treaty of Brest-Litovsk. While the 1918 German Spring offensive still fails (in part due to H & L's inability to think well in strategic terms), the lack of U.S. involvement in WWI causes Germany to acquire a peace treaty which is more-or-less based on a status quo ante bellum in the West in exchange for Germany acquiring a free hand in the East.

After the end of WWI, H & L focus on consolidating their new Eastern European empire. This is especially evident in the new United Baltic Duchy (Latvia + Estonia), where H & L get a bunch of ethnic Germans from both Germany (primarily consisting of German WWI veterans and German hyper-nationalists) and Russia to settle there (specifically on the land that the ethnically German Baltic Barons donated for ethnic German settlement). Also, after the end of WWI, H & L march onto Russia and overthrow the Bolsheviks only to withdraw afterwards and allow the White forces to fight it out among themselves.

In regards to the economy, Germany's economy is in pretty good shape in the 1920s--after Germany's success in WWI. However, an economic crisis in the U.S. at the end of the 1920s (or at the start of the 1930s) reverberates across Europe and causes Germany's economy to significant deteriorate. Thankfully for Germany, though, H & L (and their successors--after all, H & L are already getting quite old by this point in time) initiate a program of massive military increases as well as Autobahn construction in order to stimulate the German economy. However, this economic improvement only continues for several years and Germany's economy once again implodes in the early 1940s (in part due to the lack of stimulus spending to reinvigorate German domestic industries).

As a result of this economic downturn, a massive number of Germans begin protesting. Afterwards, when the German military leadership orders German troops to fire on these protesters, many German troops mutiny against their leadership and instead join these protests. These protests keep increasing and quickly transform into a revolutionary movement which overthrows the old regime (figurehead Kaiser + German military in charge) in Germany and establishes a socialist-leaning republic in Germany in its place.

Anyway, what exactly do Britain, France, Italy, Austria-Hungary, and Russia do in response to this revolution in Germany? Also, what exactly do Germany's various Eastern European puppet states do in response to this revolution in Germany?

Any thoughts on all of this?
 

Deleted member 94680

Firstly, if the Germans win WWI it won't be H&L in charge after the fighting stops. They've done their job, the war's been won and power would be handed back to the Kaiser and (Wilhelmine form) parliamentary control. That's how it would work, unless there's a coup to put the army in charge over the civilian government permanently - which with victory, I can't see a reason for.

Secondly, would there be an American financial crisis if they don't get involved in WWI or their shipping isn't hit by USW? I know that one is a bit harder to gauge, but surely an unaffected America would be more financially sound and less likely to have a crisis?

Lastly, if Germany is the Master of the continent, why would there be military build up? There's no justification for it, they have no enemies left to fight that require an expansion on the Heer's post-victorious WWI strength. The Reichstag was always reluctant to spend on the military when it was anything other than absolutely necessary (or intense horse trading paid off) so it seems unlikely that buying military kit for the sake of it would pass.

You're more likely to have Germany's neighbours invade at the build up than an internal revolution in this TL.
 

CaliGuy

Banned
Firstly, if the Germans win WWI it won't be H&L in charge after the fighting stops. They've done their job, the war's been won and power would be handed back to the Kaiser and (Wilhelmine form) parliamentary control. That's how it would work, unless there's a coup to put the army in charge over the civilian government permanently - which with victory, I can't see a reason for.

Do you honestly think that H & L would be willing to so easily give up their own power after the end of WWI?

Secondly, would there be an American financial crisis if they don't get involved in WWI or their shipping isn't hit by USW? I know that one is a bit harder to gauge, but surely an unaffected America would be more financially sound and less likely to have a crisis?

Honestly, I'm not sure. However, given the creation of the Federal Reserve in 1913 as well as the lesser amount of knowledge in regards to the economy back then (for instance, Keynesianism wasn't as popular back then as it currently is), I wouldn't rule out the possibility that the Federal Reserve and U.S. federal government do something stupid in response to a minor financial crisis in the U.S. which causes this crisis to escalate and to become an extremely severe one.

Lastly, if Germany is the Master of the continent, why would there be military build up? There's no justification for it, they have no enemies left to fight that require an expansion on the Heer's post-victorious WWI strength. The Reichstag was always reluctant to spend on the military when it was anything other than absolutely necessary (or intense horse trading paid off) so it seems unlikely that buying military kit for the sake of it would pass.

Wouldn't the creation of more jobs during a severe recession in itself be a sufficient reason for more German military spending, though?

You're more likely to have Germany's neighbours invade at the build up than an internal revolution in this TL.

Do Germany's neighbors want a butt-kicking at Germany's hands, though? After all, that is what they are going to get if they are going to invade a stable, robust Germany!
 

Deleted member 94680

Do you honestly think that H & L would be willing to so easily give up their own power after the end of WWI?

I do believe that, yes. They would have to as officers of a victorious Heer under the authority of the Kaiser, still on his throne. That's the way the system works. If not, it's a coup and other Generals would come gunning for them in the name of the Kaiser.

Honestly, I'm not sure. However, given the creation of the Federal Reserve in 1913 as well as the lesser amount of knowledge in regards to the economy back then (for instance, Keynesianism wasn't as popular back then as it currently is), I wouldn't rule out the possibility that the Federal Reserve and U.S. federal government do something stupid in response to a minor financial crisis in the U.S. which causes this crisis to escalate and to become an extremely severe one.

That's the hard point of this. The Crash isn't a certainty and I don't even know if the real cause of it has been found after all these years.

Wouldn't the creation of more jobs during a severe recession in itself be a sufficient reason for more German military spending, though?

No. A victorious Germany would have a large Social Democrat presence in its parliament and they were almost always opposed to military spending. Rampant arms spending isn't going to happen without a decent reason - maybe adventurism in Russia? What's happened to the German Colonial Empire in this TL? German bush wars maybe? Obviously it's an option to spend their way out of trouble - but why isn't it used more OTL? Parliaments oppose it due to the destabilising effect it has on a nation's neighbours, there needs to be a need for it (real or imagined) which so far this TL seems to lack. Other spending options would be used first before simply buying guns and bombs.

Do Germany's neighbors want a butt-kicking at Germany's hands, though? After all, that is what they are going to get if they are going to invade a stable, robust Germany!

Well, this TL is meant to be a German revolution, so it's not that stable obviously. Or robust if it's in the grip of an economic crash.
 
Hidenburg was already a retired officer even before WW1. He never demonstrated a profund interest in politics. I'm certain that after a victorious war he'd just resume his retirement as a war hero that defended the fatherland against the perfidious entente than risk to become persona non grata by bickering against the Reichstag and the Kaiser in a most vain way to try to retain power.
 

CaliGuy

Banned
Hidenburg was already a retired officer even before WW1. He never demonstrated a profund interest in politics. I'm certain that after a victorious war he'd just resume his retirement as a war hero that defended the fatherland against the perfidious entente than risk to become persona non grata by bickering against the Reichstag and the Kaiser in a most vain way to try to retain power.
What about Ludendorff, though?
 

Deleted member 94680

What about Ludendorff, though?

Apart from the retired bit, the same.

If you want a military dictatorship, you'll have to POD it into reality. Maybe have the Kaiser have a crisis of confidence and abdicate before the Treaty is signed, leaving H&L as figureheads of the Reich?

Of course, you've still got the Crown Prince ready to take over...
 

Thomas1195

Banned
No. A victorious Germany would have a large Social Democrat presence in its parliament and they were almost always opposed to military spending. Rampant arms spending isn't going to happen without a decent reason - maybe adventurism in Russia? What's happened to the German Colonial Empire in this TL? German bush wars maybe? Obviously it's an option to spend their way out of trouble - but why isn't it used more OTL? Parliaments oppose it due to the destabilising effect it has on a nation's neighbours, there needs to be a need for it (real or imagined) which so far this TL seems to lack. Other spending options would be used first before simply buying guns and bombs.
Maybe a dream of "a navy second to none". Now they have the whole continental to exploit the resource for another naval arm race. This time they would outbuild Britain.
 

Deleted member 94680

While the 1918 German Spring offensive still fails (in part due to H & L's inability to think well in strategic terms), the lack of U.S. involvement in WWI causes Germany to acquire a peace treaty which is more-or-less based on a status quo ante bellum in the West in exchange for Germany acquiring a free hand in the East.

In this scenario, I imagine, the Reichstag wouldn't be too keen on another arms race seeing where the last one lead to. They also don't have a whole continent to exploit, just modern Belarus, Poland and possibly the Baltic States. Russia seems to exist still, as does importantly France and Belgium.
Going by the OP, the British Empire would recover eventually and it's always been British policy to contest control (or attempted control) of the High Seas. If this produces British enmity, then there's every chance it'll bring the German people together rather than produce a revolution.
 

CaliGuy

Banned
Apart from the retired bit, the same.

If you want a military dictatorship, you'll have to POD it into reality. Maybe have the Kaiser have a crisis of confidence and abdicate before the Treaty is signed, leaving H&L as figureheads of the Reich?

Of course, you've still got the Crown Prince ready to take over...
Please keep in mind that Ludendorff participated in the 1923 Munich Beer Hall Putsch in our TL, though.
 

CaliGuy

Banned
In this scenario, I imagine, the Reichstag wouldn't be too keen on another arms race seeing where the last one lead to. They also don't have a whole continent to exploit, just modern Belarus, Poland and possibly the Baltic States. Russia seems to exist still, as does importantly France and Belgium.

You forgot to mention Germany's control of Ukraine and the Caucasus here.

Going by the OP, the British Empire would recover eventually and it's always been British policy to contest control (or attempted control) of the High Seas. If this produces British enmity, then there's every chance it'll bring the German people together rather than produce a revolution.

You mean a new Anglo-German naval arms race, correct?
 

CaliGuy

Banned
I do believe that, yes. They would have to as officers of a victorious Heer under the authority of the Kaiser, still on his throne. That's the way the system works. If not, it's a coup and other Generals would come gunning for them in the name of the Kaiser.

OK.

That's the hard point of this. The Crash isn't a certainty and I don't even know if the real cause of it has been found after all these years.

OK.

No. A victorious Germany would have a large Social Democrat presence in its parliament and they were almost always opposed to military spending. Rampant arms spending isn't going to happen without a decent reason - maybe adventurism in Russia? What's happened to the German Colonial Empire in this TL? German bush wars maybe? Obviously it's an option to spend their way out of trouble - but why isn't it used more OTL? Parliaments oppose it due to the destabilising effect it has on a nation's neighbours, there needs to be a need for it (real or imagined) which so far this TL seems to lack. Other spending options would be used first before simply buying guns and bombs.

How much authority did the German Reichstag actually have in the last years of WWI, though? After all, I seem to recall that the 1917 Reichstag Peace Resolution was simply ignored by the German leadership!

Well, this TL is meant to be a German revolution, so it's not that stable obviously. Or robust if it's in the grip of an economic crash.

You appear to have challenged my premise about a German revolution in this TL, though.
 
A problem for H&L continuing after the end of the war is that the Reichstag controls the budget. Emergency powers would lapse after the end of WWI. If Kaiser Wilhelm supported a coup by H&L he would be forced to abdicate. The armies of Bavaria, Wurttemberg and Saxony plus loyal units of the Prussian army are more than adequate to defeat any coup by H&L. Revision of the German constitution reducing the power of the Kaiser is likely in this event.

If you want a revolution in the 1940's something other than an H&L dictatorship might be a more viable POD.
 

CaliGuy

Banned
Perhaps Wilhelm II suffers from Alzheimer's and declares a war over something trivial. The Reichstag votes against funding and protests erupt. I don't know is this would result in a socialist republic though.
What about having Kaiser Wilhelm II refusing to reward the working people of Germany for their sacrifices during WWI (by refusing to make Germany into a British-style constitutional monarchy) and thus angering Germany's workers so much that they eventually spark a revolution?
 
What about having Kaiser Wilhelm II refusing to reward the working people of Germany for their sacrifices during WWI (by refusing to make Germany into a British-style constitutional monarchy) and thus angering Germany's workers so much that they eventually spark a revolution?
Reducing the constitutional prerogatives of the Kaiser can be achieved through legislative actions. Other German states resented Prussian dominance.

German was more democratic prior to WW I than either the UK or the USA.
 

Anderman

Donor
Perhaps Wilhelm II suffers from Alzheimer's and declares a war over something trivial. The Reichstag votes against funding and protests erupt. I don't know is this would result in a socialist republic though.

The Kaiser couldn´t declare war by himself he needed the consent of the Bundesrat article 11 of the imperial constitution. But if he try to do it without the consent because of his Alzheimer it could have lead to some strange situations because their no mechanism in the imperial constitution to remove a Kaiser because the Kaiser was only name/title for King of Prussia who had the presidency of the empire. So only the Kingdom of Prussia could change the King of Prussia but i don´t now how at the moment.
 

Deleted member 94680

Please keep in mind that Ludendorff participated in the 1923 Munich Beer Hall Putsch in our TL, though.

I'm well aware of that well known fact. It was, of course, in the aftermath of losing WWI. Conservative, "loyal", right-wing officers felt they weren't constrained by the 'system' once the Kaiser abdicated.

How much authority did the German Reichstag actually have in the last years of WWI, though? After all, I seem to recall that the 1917 Reichstag Peace Resolution was simply ignored by the German leadership!

That, again, was during the course of the War. In this ATL, the Germans have won, so the Reichstag has all the authority vested in it by the Wilhelmine constitution. Victorious Germany, with the Kaiser still on the throne, would return to 'normality' when the Treaty is signed - much the way France and Britain did OTL.
 
What about having Kaiser Wilhelm II refusing to reward the working people of Germany for their sacrifices during WWI (by refusing to make Germany into a British-style constitutional monarchy) and thus angering Germany's workers so much that they eventually spark a revolution?

He refused to use the army - as Bismarck advised - to disperse the protesting miners in Silesia early in his reign. Why he'd that after one the greatest victories of all time, that was only possible due to the sacrifices of the german working class? Note that even under the british system the head of state still holds significant power, if the political culture of Germany doesn't exactly mind to have the Kaiser as a significant political player, then, de facto, the transformation of the german constitutionalism to a british one is of little significance.
 
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