Germany wins WW1, starts WW2?

  • Thread starter Deleted member 1487
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Deleted member 1487

Inspired by this idea:
http://www.firstworldwar.com/features/ifgermany.htm
What if WW1 ends in a negotiated peace in 1918, perhaps like my other thread about a better planned German series of offensives, having a white peace in the West, though Luxembourg is annexed, and a free hand in the East? No one pays reparations, AH falls apart in 1919 resulting in Germany grabbing Austria and Bohemia/Moravia, Romania regains its freedom, Italy falls into civil war, Russia ends up with a Republican government after a German intervention in the Civil War, Germany loses her colonies and has limits on her navy, and the US is pissed because the war ends before she can finish it. Poland is independent, but economically dependent on Germany; Germany loses the Ukraine in the Russian Civil War; Germany annexes the Baltic states. The Ottoman Empire exists, but is a rump that only retain what ground it held in 1918. It is neutral and is ejected from the Caucasus during the Russian Civil War.

If you can think about any scenario questions, please ask.

So Germany gets off scot free, but has no more powerful allies (Hungary is divided up between Romania and Yugoslavia, which here is Croatian and Slovenian dominated, leaving a rump that still retains Slovakia, but is weak economically and more a German satallite). But she is still cut out of the world markets after the war and her economy takes time to recovery. She is still a monarchy, but a constitution is pushed through that gives the chancellor much of the powers the Kaiser once had.

Socially the country turns conservative as the WW1 generation ages and nationalistic and militaristic veterans groups keep a solid majority in the Reichstag. So in this situation, especially where Germany has weakened rivals and is economically and militarily more prepared for a second war, can she start another one for total domination of the continent and to marginalize the British?

Obviously this would be the British nightmare scenario, as the German navy is much larger and Germany never had checks on her military to recover from. There isn't an exodus of intellectuals and Jews from Germany either. Economically and technologically she is much stronger and probably has a strategic bomber force. Russia and France are weaker than OTL, but there is probably still a Maginot line. Thanks to a strong position in Europe, Germany still has economic ties to Romania and now a more oil-rich and neutral Turkey (retains Mosul) that is still bitter at the British, while also likely having a more stabile and friendly Yugoslavia as an economic ally, especially if Italy turns Fascist.

But could such a war happen without the humiliation of the Versailles treaty, the problems of the weak economy, and without the single-minded determination of the Nazis to leverage Germany into war again, despite the OTL Nazi German populace not being in favor of war?
 

Anderman

Donor
One important question is will the monarchy survive and if yes with how much will be left for the Kaiser :confused:
 

Deleted member 1487

One important question is will the monarchy survive and if yes with how much will be left for the Kaiser :confused:

Yes, but Wilhelm steps down in the 1930's in favor of the Crown Prince.
The Kaiser loses authority over the army, appointments of ministerial positions, the naval office is under the war ministry, the air force is an independent service under the war ministry. Pretty similar to Britain in the authority of the monarchy today, but more formalized in the constitution. Also the Reichstag is reformed so that one man has one vote, not the tiered system of the pre-1914 era, and there is no property requirements to vote. Not sure if women would have the vote by this point, but probably.
 
Also the Reichstag is reformed so that one man has one vote, not the tiered system of the pre-1914 era, and there is no property requirements to vote. Not sure if women would have the vote by this point, but probably.

The German Reichstag was elected by general and equal (male) vote since 1871. As the Great War made women indispensable for the war effort, there would be general and equal secret vote (both sexes) in force at the time of your TL.

The tiered Prussian voting system was already earmarked for abolition during the war; in this scenario most probably having fallen immediately after peace had been signed.

If Germany wins the Great War, she dominates Europe. No second war is necessary to confirm that. A police action might become opportune to stop English impertinence, but that is about all.
 
I don't see Hungry being divided up between Romania and Yugoslavia. A generation of border wars to settle the final borders down there yes.

Also I really don't know about Germany becoming conservative. The voting trade pre and post war was for increasing power of the SPD and other socialist parties. If nothing else use UK after WW2 as a template, Churchill's thanks for winning the war was to be tossed out.

Michael
 

Anderman

Donor
The German Reichstag was elected by general and equal (male) vote since 1871. As the Great War made women indispensable for the war effort, there would be general and equal secret vote (both sexes) in force at the time of your TL.

The tiered Prussian voting system was already earmarked for abolition during the war; in this scenario most probably having fallen immediately after peace had been signed.

If Germany wins the Great War, she dominates Europe. No second war is necessary to confirm that. A police action might become opportune to stop English impertinence, but that is about all.

Which leads to an important institution in the German Empire which is most often overlooked the Bundesrat. How will control the 17 votes the Kingdom of Prussia has in it ? Can the Crown keep the control of the votes ?
In short terms the whole constitution is in need of an overhaul.

Back to WW2 why is there a new war and why will it be a word war? The empire could fight another war in Europe borders etc but a wordl war is unlikely.
 
The German Reichstag was elected by general and equal (male) vote since 1871. As the Great War made women indispensable for the war effort, there would be general and equal secret vote (both sexes) in force at the time of your TL.

The tiered Prussian voting system was already earmarked for abolition during the war; in this scenario most probably having fallen immediately after peace had been signed.

If Germany wins the Great War, she dominates Europe. No second war is necessary to confirm that. A police action might become opportune to stop English impertinence, but that is about all.

Probably a series of police action but in the East to prop up the new nation created by the peace treaty, without Germans troops they will not last for long and don't forget the looming menace of the communist, some spontaneous people republic will pop up somewhere and there will still be some type of proselitism on the general population; there is the situation in the former A-H empire, how is the break up? peacefull? the usual Balkan mess? (this last situation is a lot more propable of an Italian civil war, hell probably the fascist go in power a couple of years early lead by D'Annunzio). So we have a Germany still with troops in the east for the immediate future, trying to inglobate catholic austrian in the reich and in the middle of some political unrest (this is WWI, win or lose you will be faced by it it's impossible to avoid) ... things are gonna be interesting
 

yourworstnightmare

Banned
Donor
Why would Germany start another war? To reconquer her Colonies? (I take it Germany lost her colonies in WW1, but gained Luxemburg and East European puppets).

I don't think Hungary would be divided. With no Austria, I can see Germany supporting a strong Hungary.

What would happen to Galizia though? Split between Germany's Polish and Ukrainian puppets?
 

Inhato

Banned
I think German control over Central Europe would be very unstable one.

Polish people will resist the plans to exploit them economically and oppressive control. The same but on different scale will happen in Ukraine and in Czech territories.

Neither Poles nor Ukrainians will be happy about any solution to their territorial disputes by Germans.

I can see nationalists and military pushing for emergency powers to combat Bolsheviks, and sending opposition to camps in OberOst territories in Belarus.

Perhaps as a result of hostility the focus of nations in the East will be on German authorities and eventually you will see rebirth of neo-slavic movement, proposing to put aside differences of Slavic nations to defend against German expansion(not a unified state but some forum to negotiate differences and disputes). Maybe formation of some panslavic version of communism.

I think England, France will sponsor movements resisting German rule, even if it is just sabotage or espionage.

The loyalty of nations such as Czechs or Poles during next war will be seriously in question, and Germans will perhaps need troops to occupy them rather than count on their forces(imagine several divisions turning against their former German masters). Ukraine will likely be divided between pro-Russian and pro-German faction.



So Germany is surrounded by hostile nations, and needs to keep control over several areas that will be opposed to its rule. It will need to keep some military resources focused on keeping its conquests obedient. The countries of Mitteleuropa will in turn be ruled by Germans with high position for German military there. There are some parallels with Japan before WW2.
 
Which leads to an important institution in the German Empire which is most often overlooked the Bundesrat. How will control the 17 votes the Kingdom of Prussia has in it ? Can the Crown keep the control of the votes ?
In short terms the whole constitution is in need of an overhaul.

If the crown looses its influence on the government, it will also loose its influence on the Bundesrat votes. In any case, the relative power of Prussia will diminish anyway. wiking has Austria, Bohemia-Moravia and Luxemburg join as states. With these added, the majority of Prussia is gone - unless Prussia annexes these territories.

Considering the basic question whether WWII is possible: I think it is. The German victory as described preserves the pre-war situation which allows for WWII. It may be avoided, as rast points out in his excellent timeline, where Germany manages to get an early European community. France will be crucial. Rapprochement is what is needed to avoid WWII.
 
If Germany wins the Great War, she dominates Europe. No second war is necessary to confirm that. A police action might become opportune to stop English impertinence, but that is about all.

To stop English impertinence? In this scenario UK (please stop equating English with British, it's really irritating) and Germany are the 2 big winners, both come out significantly strengthened but suffering strategic overstretch. It is arguable that it is in both countries interests to work to maintain the new balance of power with UK ensuring France and Italy don't rock the boat and Germany doing the same for the Ottomans and Russia

You don't believe me? think about the scenario. The UK has gained everything they gained in OTL and can legitimately claim that they have successfully defended Belgium's independence, their stated reason for entering the war. Germany while having lost it's colonies has gained vast new vassal states in the East and South. The war in the west was primarily a holding action for them so they can legitimately claim they won as well. In short the 2 colossi have gained immense new power and prestige at the expense of their allies. I can see in this scenario a revaunchist France, Italy, Russia, Hungry and Ottoman Empire starting a WW2 analogue against a British-German alliance of convenience
 

Deleted member 1487

I don't think Hungary would be divided. With no Austria, I can see Germany supporting a strong Hungary.

What would happen to Galizia though? Split between Germany's Polish and Ukrainian puppets?

With Galicia I would think that it would be: the Ukranians were too numerous in Galicia to ignore and would probably take East Galicia, but falter around Lemberg/Lwow/Lviv. Congress Poland would like to help, but they have serious political differences with the Polish rulers of West Galicia. Plus the situation in Congress Poland would require the full attention of the underground Polish army, who are trying to define themselves against the Germans and Bolsheviks.

I see Ukraine as being a 'bridge too far' for the Germans, as there was more support for the Bolsheviks ultimately and the Russians than as a German puppet.

OTL by 1918 Hungary was inevitably turning toward communism among the peasants, who were the majority of the population and soldiers. Basically when the war ends and the Hungarian nobility demand independence, something they were gearing up for in 1918, then the Hungarian communists strike. They kill off important figures and launch a revolution to overthrow their government. This prompts other communist groups in the empire the rise as well, Vienna especially having a large 'red' population.
Soon the radicalized nationalists throughout the empire are seizing the opportunity to revolt.
Germany is locked in her own troubles in the East and at home with Socialist agitation and can really only spare troops to help hold Bohemia/Moravia and Austria. Kaiser Karl eats a bullet during the unrest in Vienna and no one cares because EVERYONE hates the Habsburgs by their point. Still it further destabilizes the situation, as now everyone is declaring independence.

Meanwhile Romania, which has by now received its territory back, but at a reduced level plus Bessarbia (which they OTL CPs gave Romania). Its army and state are still cohesive and jump in to the fracas to take Transsylvania. It repudiates the treaty with Germany and AH, while helping fight the communists in Hungary.

Yugoslavia is formed in the war by the revolting Croats and Slovenians, who annex Bosnia-Herzogovina, while also grabbing the still occupied rump Serbia and the Serb portions of Southern Hungary. The Hungarians are fighting on three fronts and have a civil war, so aren't really holding anything successfully besides Slovakia.

Austria asks for German annexation and gets it, which quiets the situation there and results in Germany grabbing Bohemia, Moravia, Austrian Silesia, Sopron and Burgenland, and the disputed areas along the Slovenian border.
 
To stop English impertinence? In this scenario UK (please stop equating English with British, it's really irritating) and Germany are the 2 big winners, both come out significantly strengthened but suffering strategic overstretch. It is arguable that it is in both countries interests to work to maintain the new balance of power with UK ensuring France and Italy don't rock the boat and Germany doing the same for the Ottomans and Russia

Not very likely; the old (British) concept (pre-war) was 'There's equilibrium in Europe - and Britannia rules the waves'. The new (German) concept will be 'There's equilibrium around the world, and Germany rules Europe'. - No British meddling with European affairs any more; Germany will make sure that France and Italy don't rock the boat - without any British help, thank you.
The British may enjoy their enormous empire, the largest they ever had, but Europe will be closed for them.
That - at least - will be the hardliner approach; if the democratic parties in Germany win notable influence after the war, things may shape out much softer.
 
If Italy falls into civil war I could see a Socialist government taking over with irridentist claims over parts of Austria still frustrated. Given that Mussolini started out a socialist it's possible he'd end up in charge still, but butterflies would probably change that. Maybe it falls into a long-term Spanish-style civil war, with Populists in the South fighting Futurists and Syndicalists in the North.

As for a world war, I could see Britain becoming more isolationist, or alternatively casting around for new allies; maybe Japan given their colonial arrangements in the Far East during the War. I could see a war in Europe being caused by Russian claims to German-occupied areas of Eastern Europe in a manner similar to Austro-Serbian tensions before 1914, albeit on a much larger scale.
 

yourworstnightmare

Banned
Donor
If Italy falls into civil war I could see a Socialist government taking over with irridentist claims over parts of Austria still frustrated. Given that Mussolini started out a socialist it's possible he'd end up in charge still, but butterflies would probably change that. Maybe it falls into a long-term Spanish-style civil war, with Populists in the South fighting Futurists and Syndicalists in the North.

As for a world war, I could see Britain becoming more isolationist, or alternatively casting around for new allies; maybe Japan given their colonial arrangements in the Far East during the War. I could see a war in Europe being caused by Russian claims to German-occupied areas of Eastern Europe in a manner similar to Austro-Serbian tensions before 1914, albeit on a much larger scale.

National Syndicalist Italy. Left wing nationalism at it's best. That would be awesome!!

For a WW2, yes Russia would in this case be the loser in WW1, and most willing for a rematch (of course depend on the government). Remember in this scenario Britain, France and Germany all could retire from the war claiming victory. Britain and France for colonial annexations, and Germany for mastery of Central- Eastern Europe.
 
Not very likely; the old (British) concept (pre-war) was 'There's equilibrium in Europe - and Britannia rules the waves'. The new (German) concept will be 'There's equilibrium around the world, and Germany rules Europe'. - No British meddling with European affairs any more; Germany will make sure that France and Italy don't rock the boat - without any British help, thank you.
The British may enjoy their enormous empire, the largest they ever had, but Europe will be closed for them.
That - at least - will be the hardliner approach; if the democratic parties in Germany win notable influence after the war, things may shape out much softer.

Europe won't be closed to UK for the same reason the British Empire and US won't be closed to Germany - they need each other for trade and to maintain the new balance of power.

It really is a myth that the UK cared for nothing but maintaining the balance of power in Europe. If that were true the British would have intervened to stop Prussia defeating Austria, stopped Prussia defeating France and uniting the German states into an empire. It would have stopped the US defeating Spain and taking it's empire. In short UK acted first and foremost in defence of British interests. If it was in UK's interests to support the new status quo then they would have done and given the scenario outlined it would have been in the UK's interests to back the new status quo.
 
But could such a war happen without the humiliation of the Versailles treaty, the problems of the weak economy, and without the single-minded determination of the Nazis to leverage Germany into war again, despite the OTL Nazi German populace not being in favor of war?

I would be worried about a future war starting in the mideast about oil. Germany needs oil. As national policy "Our place in the sun" becomes "Our source of petrol".

Aftter the peace in this TL, the whole area Syria, Jordan, Nothern Iraq, Northern Persia and the Caucasus are in a state of flux.

Britain will retain full control of Palestine (shield for the Suez) and Iraq (sheild for the Persian Gulf), but depending on timing much is left in Turkish control and the Germans are in Georgia.

The Germans have invested too much in this area to let the Turkish goverment fail but are rivals with Turkey in the Caucusus.

Baku, Mosul and Kirkuk are big sources of oil, but who is in control? I can see some scenerio where the Turks have to deal with minorities of Arabs, Greeks, Armenians and Kurds all revolting, the Turks are unable to control things, the Germans intervene (maybe across the Black sea from a German friendly or controlled Ukraine) to secure their rail and oil interests, the British don't want the Germans so close to the Persian Gulf and the Suez, demand they withdraw, the German refuse etc...
 
Europe won't be closed to UK for the same reason the British Empire and US won't be closed to Germany - they need each other for trade and to maintain the new balance of power.

Yes, but the German leadership in 1918 is no longer Anglophile Bethmann Hollweg and his inept gang of diplomats, but a bunch of generals and politicians who know that Britain is Germany's worst enemy. They can't get at Britain's throat, but they'll make sure that Britain influence in continental affairs is neutralised. The British blockade 1914-19 most likely killed more German civilians than the Allied air war 1939-45 did, these victims will not be forgotten.
 
Still, for Germany to recover economically and be able to maintain their hold on their vassal states they need to trade. The only powers in a position to do so are the British and Americans. This means that Germany needs to be open and trade with UK if she is to recover (the opposite is also true btw). At the end of this war UK and Germany will need each other
 
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