Arminius
Banned
The scenario in which I see Germany winning the First World War is that it is not a world war at all. By 1914 Germany's High Command realized that the Schlieffen Plan would not work, it wasn't feasible. So imagine this:
Germany reacts to Russian mobilization the same, by mobilizing its own forces on 30 July, 1914. However the plan is now not to invade Belgium and then swing into France as the Schlieffen Plan calls for, but to simply fortify the borders between Germany and Belgium/France, dig in along the border in defensive positions, move up troops and artillery, and use observation aircraft flying along the border but not into French or Belgian airspace. Thus Britain is deprived of a legal reason to enter the war (protecting Belgian neutrality since it has not been violated) and the French must now contemplate whether to declare war, or if they did after 31 July, to act on it, since it would now be obvious that Germany was not going to invade). In this scenario, Germany still declares war on Russia on 1 August, and France has a treaty with Russia to enter a war if a third party attacks either France or Russia. However, they had this treaty a decade earlier and ignored it, when Japan attacked Russian forces at Port Aruthur China in 1904 without a declaration of war. This was because Great Britain had a treaty with Japan of a similiar nature. Britain was not obligated to enter the Russo-Japanese War since Japan was the aggressor, but if France declared war on Japan as treaty called for, Britain had to enter against France. So the French sat on their hands, not wanting a war with the British Navy. If Germany had simply erected defensive positions along the border with France and Belgium, the French would have sat this one out too; despite a desire for revenge for the Franco-Prussian War and the loss of Alsace-Lorraine.
An Eastern Front only war would have, in my view, resulted in the inevitable defeat of Imperial Russia and Serbia, with Imperial Germany and Austria-Hungary demanding territorial concessions in the Ukraine and elsewhere, and the extradition of Gavril Prinicip to Austria for execution. A Central Powers victory in an Eastern Front only war would also have necessarily meant the extermination of the Black Hand terrorist group that supported Princip and was responsible for other terrorist acts against Austro-Hungarian rule.
Two defeats within a decade might well have led to a forced abdication of Tsar Nicholas II, but if the war only lasted, as I think it would have, until perhaps fall of 1915, this may not necessarily have been the case. If he abdicated in favor of a more reform minded relative, instead of a regent for his son, then perhaps the kind of democratic reforms that Tsar Alexander II had intended might have been instituted. But if the war is not prolonged for 3 years, and the shortages that came with it, then perhaps Nicholas could have staved off abdication. I tend to doubt it, but it might not necessarily have meant the end of the monarchy, but rather a constitutional monarchy like Britain.
This would also mean no war in Africa, no loss of German colonies there, no fighting in any Belgian colonies or between British and German forces in Africa (a neglected theater of study for The Great War). The German High Seas Fleet is intact, and ready to respond to any Japanese moves against German possessions in the Pacific. There would have been no Australian moves against German Neu Guinea or New Zealand attack against German Somoa. With the monarchy secure in Berlin and Vienna, and quite possibly in Rome (it would seem less likely that Mussolini's fascists could come to power), that would leave only Japan as a military-run dictatorship. The history of China is likely very different, and if Japan does try to take German possessions, she would have to face an intact German High Seas Fleet, as well as the German U-boat force. And quite possibly a combined German-French force, or even more nations against her.
With no unrestricted submarine warfare in the Atlantic, no involvement by Great Britain and supply by the U.S., there is no Lusitania incident nor a Zimmerman telegram, no American involvement. Britain does not incur the massive debt of the war, nor does France. If Japan enters the war to steal Germany's Pacific Possessions, she does so as a naked aggressor, since Britain is not involved. Japan may covet those islands, but is hardly likely to enter on the side of Russia. If she does invade Germany's islands, then the Kaiser can make the pitch to France that what is stop them from going after French Polynesia at some point, and can tell his cousin in London that since Japan grabbed the German islands in the Marshalls and Carolines and their concession at Tsingtao, China, what's to stop them going after Hong Kong, Sinapore, Malaya, even India? And the Kaiser could whisper in Wilson's ear about the threat to Guam, the Philippines and even Hawaii. Join us in wiping out this threat to our possessions. World War II becomes less of a possibility. The Lusitania and Brittanic are remembered as opulent ocean liners, they have a long service life, Adolph Hitler shuffles back to Austria to paint water colors, Brown Brothers-Harriman and Prescott Bush never get their hands on the Hamburg-America Line. Maybe the Cox-Roosevelt ticket wins the 1920 election, no Teapot Dome/Veterans Bureau/Alien Property scandals, maybe no Stock Market Crash and no Great Depression. And my grandfather doesn't get hit with poison gas in 1918 and doesn't die at age 44 in 1939.
Germany reacts to Russian mobilization the same, by mobilizing its own forces on 30 July, 1914. However the plan is now not to invade Belgium and then swing into France as the Schlieffen Plan calls for, but to simply fortify the borders between Germany and Belgium/France, dig in along the border in defensive positions, move up troops and artillery, and use observation aircraft flying along the border but not into French or Belgian airspace. Thus Britain is deprived of a legal reason to enter the war (protecting Belgian neutrality since it has not been violated) and the French must now contemplate whether to declare war, or if they did after 31 July, to act on it, since it would now be obvious that Germany was not going to invade). In this scenario, Germany still declares war on Russia on 1 August, and France has a treaty with Russia to enter a war if a third party attacks either France or Russia. However, they had this treaty a decade earlier and ignored it, when Japan attacked Russian forces at Port Aruthur China in 1904 without a declaration of war. This was because Great Britain had a treaty with Japan of a similiar nature. Britain was not obligated to enter the Russo-Japanese War since Japan was the aggressor, but if France declared war on Japan as treaty called for, Britain had to enter against France. So the French sat on their hands, not wanting a war with the British Navy. If Germany had simply erected defensive positions along the border with France and Belgium, the French would have sat this one out too; despite a desire for revenge for the Franco-Prussian War and the loss of Alsace-Lorraine.
An Eastern Front only war would have, in my view, resulted in the inevitable defeat of Imperial Russia and Serbia, with Imperial Germany and Austria-Hungary demanding territorial concessions in the Ukraine and elsewhere, and the extradition of Gavril Prinicip to Austria for execution. A Central Powers victory in an Eastern Front only war would also have necessarily meant the extermination of the Black Hand terrorist group that supported Princip and was responsible for other terrorist acts against Austro-Hungarian rule.
Two defeats within a decade might well have led to a forced abdication of Tsar Nicholas II, but if the war only lasted, as I think it would have, until perhaps fall of 1915, this may not necessarily have been the case. If he abdicated in favor of a more reform minded relative, instead of a regent for his son, then perhaps the kind of democratic reforms that Tsar Alexander II had intended might have been instituted. But if the war is not prolonged for 3 years, and the shortages that came with it, then perhaps Nicholas could have staved off abdication. I tend to doubt it, but it might not necessarily have meant the end of the monarchy, but rather a constitutional monarchy like Britain.
This would also mean no war in Africa, no loss of German colonies there, no fighting in any Belgian colonies or between British and German forces in Africa (a neglected theater of study for The Great War). The German High Seas Fleet is intact, and ready to respond to any Japanese moves against German possessions in the Pacific. There would have been no Australian moves against German Neu Guinea or New Zealand attack against German Somoa. With the monarchy secure in Berlin and Vienna, and quite possibly in Rome (it would seem less likely that Mussolini's fascists could come to power), that would leave only Japan as a military-run dictatorship. The history of China is likely very different, and if Japan does try to take German possessions, she would have to face an intact German High Seas Fleet, as well as the German U-boat force. And quite possibly a combined German-French force, or even more nations against her.
With no unrestricted submarine warfare in the Atlantic, no involvement by Great Britain and supply by the U.S., there is no Lusitania incident nor a Zimmerman telegram, no American involvement. Britain does not incur the massive debt of the war, nor does France. If Japan enters the war to steal Germany's Pacific Possessions, she does so as a naked aggressor, since Britain is not involved. Japan may covet those islands, but is hardly likely to enter on the side of Russia. If she does invade Germany's islands, then the Kaiser can make the pitch to France that what is stop them from going after French Polynesia at some point, and can tell his cousin in London that since Japan grabbed the German islands in the Marshalls and Carolines and their concession at Tsingtao, China, what's to stop them going after Hong Kong, Sinapore, Malaya, even India? And the Kaiser could whisper in Wilson's ear about the threat to Guam, the Philippines and even Hawaii. Join us in wiping out this threat to our possessions. World War II becomes less of a possibility. The Lusitania and Brittanic are remembered as opulent ocean liners, they have a long service life, Adolph Hitler shuffles back to Austria to paint water colors, Brown Brothers-Harriman and Prescott Bush never get their hands on the Hamburg-America Line. Maybe the Cox-Roosevelt ticket wins the 1920 election, no Teapot Dome/Veterans Bureau/Alien Property scandals, maybe no Stock Market Crash and no Great Depression. And my grandfather doesn't get hit with poison gas in 1918 and doesn't die at age 44 in 1939.
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