Let's put it this way, I am developing a back story for a piece of science fiction. In this piece, Germany wins the first World War, and gradually develops into the dominant world power. The Kluck and von Bulow armies getting separated under Moltke's command seems like one of those pivotal moments where history could have diverged widely from what we know today. As I understand it, whether it is Moltke's fault or not is a subject of considerable debate. That's not really the meat of what I'm looking for here, because I can use a number of devices to make the victory over Paris more plausible (such as a last minute plan that has a more efficient strategy.)
I didn't mean to imply that Germany would become a superpower right off the bat, rather that the victory over France is the inciting incident. The further we move away from this event the more artistic license I have, and by the end of the story we have moved pretty far away from 1914. But I am looking for some speculation on a plausible way that Germany could end up assuming the role of the most powerful nation in the world, both politically and technologically. Without the disaster of the First World War, the stab in the back theory, the economic recession and subsequent Depression possibly averted or impact lessened, Hitler's rhetoric wouldn't be as appealing. He might remain a shabby artist. With Hitler's rise to power and the Economic Miracle in mind as proof that the German people can be leveraged by their leaders for good or bad, what could they do with a truly brilliant and mostly benevolent dictator replacing the reign of Hitler and his dubious motivations? I want to explore how nationalism could have actually stimulated positive momentum, while keeping the vague air of displaced cataclysm hanging in the air. Going back to immediately after the defeat of Paris, what would it take to defeat Russia and force Britain to back down? What would the political landscape of Germany be like after the victory? What type of leader would appeal to the German people of the twenties or thirties? I'm focusing almost exclusively on Germany, but what might other important nations be doing?
These questions form the basis for the beginning of my story, there is much more to it but I want to make sure the details have some degree of plausibility. So I encourage you to help me out with a bit of speculation. I have my story arc prepared and I'm trying to build facts around it so I know what world my story exists in before I write it. Any help is appreciated, and your insights so far have been helpful.
Well...
Getting Germany to be THE most dominant power is going to be quite a slog.
They simply do not have the right positioning to do that, they could be one of the top 2 or 3 powers with some ease, but THE number one... not so much.
North America has far to much potential for Germany to overcome without a level of global conquest that would outside her character historically (British propaganda not withstanding), as well as being outside the realm of what the Kaiser would support politically. And that last part is a real problem until Wilhelm 2 dies and it is not likely to be much better under his heirs but it might.
Paris falling within the first year of the war leaves you with a German monarchy which even after the historic war maintained significant support for it politically. Not having the kind of war that saw the slide of German society into chaos would strengthen that support far more likelier then not. This makes Hitler or someone with nearly identical views a non starter as a leader in Germany, and that I think we would all agree is a good thing.
And since Wilhelm found the naked grabbing of land a bit distasteful, the proof of that pudding is the German desire for the Philippines did not end with them bashing Spain over the head and taking them and the treaty of Brest-Litovsk to a degree; Germany did not transfer the territory gained directly to her but rather to client states that were created out of it. Now some will disagree with those conclusions and in part their disagreement will be based in the rather excellent job the entente did of trashing Germany's reputation post victory. But considering documents that surfaced not that long ago that pretty decisively cast Britain in the role of the party actively seeking not only war, but the destruction of as much of the German state as possible? We have to seriously discount if not outright ignore anything based in whole or in part their version of history. It is tainted by a strong motivation to lie.
Part of the reason that I am responding to this is because I came across this thread in a google search while looking for a map I recently saw of what the CP's plans were post victory. I downloaded them on my other machine who in the interim has had a video card failure and I can't access them until I replace the dang thing as the HD in it won't fit in the laptop. Otherwise I would post the map of the plan and a link to the documents (note to all: sync up your history and bookmarks between your laptop and desktop fairly frequently). But in comparison to what the entente actually DID and what the Germans planned to do? The Germans plans were by far the least evil, the least expansionistic and grabbed the least land from others. By comparison between the dream outcome of the CP's and the actions of the entente the Germans were positively little Mary sunshine. Sure it called for in the West the Dutch coming into the German sphere of influence economically and if the Belgians did not wish to transfer key parts of the Congo then they would as well. But the amount of colonial transfers was quite minimal: Upper Kameroun, Dahomey and the pre approved by the British splitting of the Portuguese colonies are the highlights of what I can remember. The Brits did not have to give up anything as far as I can recall and the French get docked nearly nothing. The only losers are the Portuguese who if the war had not happened would have had their empire carved up with the Brits holding the fork while the Germans moved the knife.
And the motivation for the transfers that did occur in their post war plans was to ensure a secure source of raw materiel for German industry. Making it a bit unlikely that they would wish to part with their colonies in the event of them winning the war either through a negotiated peace or outright victory. The point of them building up the Hochseeflotte was so that they could protect those resources and considering the amount of resources that took it is a strong indicator of the importance that they placed on those colonies in the long view.
So... you knock France out of the war reasonably early; Italy and Romania would join the CP as would the Turks. The Japanese might have motivation to stay out of the war but won't as honor would dictate they honor their treaty with England. Never underestimate the value of not losing face when it comes to Japan of that era or any other, they'll honor the alliance and in the doing you will see if they mirror their historic fleet deployments some kind of fighting between the IJN and the RM in the Med of all places. The Japanese had a substantial number of ships in the Med doing convoy duty during the actual war so there is no reason to think that they would have fewer given that the situation is not going to be better for the entente then historical. Net result is Italy and Japan bashing it out with the Austrian fleet thrown in as well as the Turks and whoever else wants a piece of that fight.
Which brings us to the question: What of the French fleet?
If Germany has knocked the French out and there exists the possibility of the Germans acquiring the ships at the treaty table, would Britain perform Mars El Kabir a generation sooner? And if so, what effect would it have on the French and the greater perception of the British in the rest of the world? I think that the British would with little hesitation turn their guns on the French fleet and that the French would be none to pleased by it, nor would the American reading audience. It comes across as a bit to ruthless in that era to civilians and that kind of thing can have political consequences.
Britain would be a bit hard pressed to mount an invasion of Europe via France and with the French out I can't imagine the Belgians staying in for very long making it unlikely for Britain to move a huge amount of troops into Belgium. The Dutch are going to stay out of it, so Britain will have to content herself in bashing on colonies for as long as it takes Germany to defeat Russia which won't be all that long really. At the end of that, Britain is going to have to come to the table and in doing that likely accept a return to the status quo.
Now that would be enough to make Germany the de facto second or third power in the world and it is likely given the probable gains from the West and in the East that she would be able to maintain that status for a couple of generations at the least.
Post war we probably would still see a Russian civil war during which time the Japanese are going to try and grab some of the Russian Far-East but this time I don't think that there is going to be enough leverage to make them give it up once they grab it. Don't have much to base that on but a gut feeling, and since I trust my gut more often then not... Also my gut is telling me that we probably won't see the Austrian empire around for very long as even being on the winning side during the war will not be able to plug up all the hits to the hull she had taken the last century; she was simply to damaged to really have a chance of staying together much beyond 1933. How that might play out with Italy being in the mix would depend upon timing and personalities in charge, not really sure Italy and Germany would maintain being allies beyond Il Duce coming into power (odds still favor that as Italy would still have been on the winning side regardless and still would not have likely gained much if anything for the effort so likely to still have the same conditions present for it). If they are allies when the break up of AH occurs I know that Italy will press of Istria and Dalmatia, and considering the German penchant for trying to restore her 15th century if not earlier borders when they have a chance of doing so; I don't think that is going to go very far as it is very likely that Austria will try and join with Germany as intact as possible and Germany will want that to happen.
Hungary is going to try and hold onto as much of the territory that were assigned to her crown as she can but considering the situation might have to cough up Dalmatia as the Austrians are going to be pissed and that is likely to translate as the Germans being miffed or ticked off and they can appease the Italians with Dalmatia as a way of keeping Istria intact and tossing a bit of mud on the Hungarian's cookie.
The Czech's will likely become a Bohemian client state of the new Germany as even in the historic timeline there was considerable support for some sort of economic union with Austria with greater autonomy rather then outright independence. This could translate into something similar with Germany w/Austria if not outright joining if they can have the same kind of status as Bavaria in the second reich. An event that is probably acceptable given the amount of industry in the country that could be joined with Germany without firing a shot. The Czechs would probably go for it given the access to overseas markets that they would get for nearly free and if they are given the "Bavarian" option they will have much of the trappings of independence without a boatload of the overhead costs for it(they would be able to maintain a separate military inclusive of air force and a separate though attached to the German mission diplomatic presence as well as as great amount of internal autonomy that Bavaria had). With the inclusion of Bohemia and Moravia as well as Austria proper into Germany along with all of those resources and industry that would propel Germany pretty easily one step up the great power ladder.
Given the client states in the East and West (taking the Dutch economic incorporation as a given in this timeline), and the erosion of the Russians because of the war and probable civil war as well as whatever damage has been done to the French state, that would put Germany easily as the number two power behind Britain and just ahead of the US. Britain just has way to big of an empire to overcome quickly, we are talking about 25% of the globes surface lays under the Union Jack and a sizable portion of her population and resources. That is not something that Germany can overcome quickly nor would she want to as the garrisoning of such would be a mighty strain on her.
In the long term, say the rest of the 20th century, and if there is no second world war and no post colonism, it is likely that the top three are going to remain the top three though their positions might fluctuate. It is also possible that the Russians might get close to cracking into it just do to land area and resources available.
But here is the thing: Even if there is no second world war, and that is not very likely given the realities; there WILL be a post colonial era and that is where Britain is going to take it in the shorts! Far more of her is tied to overseas colonies that will be breaking away then are the Germans. Germany will still likely have her client states in the East and in the West it is true that the Dutch will lose the NEI as a result of post colonialism, they won't be as negatively impacted as Britain will be by the loss of India. Though the timeline favors slightly orderly transitions of colonies to dominions or allied client states then not. That being said though the German clients in the East are still going to be there and with far more robust economies then the newly released members of the British commonwealth and given how the Germans ran their colonies in comparison to the British that will also be the case more likely then not with her former colonies. The Germans actually had a better colonial administration set up the the British in the long term, they relied a lot more on natives doing the job then did the Brits and they trained them to do those jobs. The result would be colonies better able to stand on their own two feet and with a broader class of native leaders then the English model making for more orderly and stable former colonies.
Now the Ottomans are going to be a bug in the ointment so to speak...
They just might last long enough to be a real major pain in the butt when they start coming apart. The Germans are likely to pour a lot of resources into them during the period that they are still around, and those resources will be targeted at developing their resources such as the massive amounts of oil...
So when they come apart, and it is likely to happen for much of the same reasons that it will happen to AH though it may take a bit longer due to population densities in some of the areas (you are only ever going to have a certain percentage of a population group actually get off their butts and take direct action to free themselves, so in low density populations it easier for a large population density state to maintain order as they will have a net manpower advantage); it will just eventually become to much of a PITA for the German population to want to deal with and the Turks won't be able to hold things together for very long after that on their own.
This will leave a great potential for a set back to German long term planning as well as a rather substantial loss of critical resources that will be hard to make up for.
Well I have prattled on more then long enough...