I'm thinking about a XXth century ATL and I'd like to hear some of your opinions.
A couple of observations:
- I know the TL is quite cliche-like; I mostly just collected ideas that I liked.
- I am more interested in Big History, so I'm looking for PODs and TLs which do not depend on the actions of an individual, but more like on greater economic/historical trends (which may partially excuse the usage of rather worn-out scenarios)
- I've highlighted the parts I would most like to discuss
So, the prelude is that the US fails to maintain its unity during the 19th century and is fragmented into 3-4 states. I'm thinking of a larger CSA(including the border states), a California which does not join the union and ends up controlling roughly the lands west of the Continental Divide, perhaps an independent Texas, plus the US keeping the rest of the lands. The point is to have some kind of American balance of powers that keeps this part of the world busy with itself and unable to intervene in the European wars of the XXth century.
So as a consequence of this and a number of other PODs of choice it is the Central Powers that win the First World War. Still, it is a long and bloody war, with all the OTL horror. The Russians collapse into revolution and civil war, the Germans end up taking Paris and the British are forced into a negotiated peace. I am largely assuming OTL economic/industrial/military capabilities for everyone, so the following speculations should be judged based on that too.
This was sort of the intro, I am most interested in what would happen after this. Here's one version.
- Germany organises the lands gained in the East into satellite-states: Poland, Ukraine, Belorussia, Baltic states
- Russia goes communist but maintains a leadership more focused on internationalism and does not degenarate into stalinist genocide & crap. Which is not to say it is an attractive regime, but keeps within the boundaries of a 'normal' dictatorship, without the extremes of OTL
- Communism, or sth very leftist, anyway, emerges as a dominant force in France and Italy. France is in a deep economic/social crisis and unlike OTL Germany it knows well that it cannot hope to ignite and win a new war. This bitter realisation discredits the far-right rethoric and (with or without a Great Depression) favours the rise of a left focused on attacking the establishment and demanding social reform. I would really like to see a communist France- I think the social basis is there, the French Far Left has always been very strong even in OTL and a lost world war could have provided the push in such a direction
- Austria-Hungary falls apart sooner or later; Austria, the Czech Republic, Greater Hungary, Croatia+Bosnia+Slovenia & Galicia become independent under German patronage; Austria joins Germany later and the Czech Republic becomes incorporated
- Germany finds itself slowly surrounded by leftist states: Russia, France, Italy, which instead of OTL fascism gravitates towards communism(also huge tradition and social base, think of OTL post WW2 Italian communist movement) and Spain, where the Civil War goes the other way. To make it a little more realistic Italy & Spain might remain alligned with the right due to German support for anti-communists
- But conflict brews in the east. In Ukraine and Belarus the far-right puppet-regimes kept in power by Germany are widely hated and support turns to underground communist movements run from Russia. Both Ukraine and Belarus have large Russian or Russophone populations who would be opposed to German rule and would rather gravitate towards the Soviet Union, which, I must emphasize again, would be much more attractive than OTL.
- The communist movement gains momentum in Germany too, and although it is nowhere near taking over power it creates a mass hysteria and inadvertently leads to the rise of more militant nationalists (not Nazis though)
- A successful communist coup in Ucraine leads to German intervention and a possible casus belli between the Soviets and the Germans
In fact this is one of my big questions: can u see a realistic Soviet-Russian war happening along the lines of the above scenario?
Anyway, this post is already long enough, so I'll end it here. Hope to have some answers.