Germany wins ww1, communist France & Soviets vs. Germans

I'm thinking about a XXth century ATL and I'd like to hear some of your opinions.
A couple of observations:
- I know the TL is quite cliche-like; I mostly just collected ideas that I liked.
- I am more interested in Big History, so I'm looking for PODs and TLs which do not depend on the actions of an individual, but more like on greater economic/historical trends (which may partially excuse the usage of rather worn-out scenarios)
- I've highlighted the parts I would most like to discuss

So, the prelude is that the US fails to maintain its unity during the 19th century and is fragmented into 3-4 states. I'm thinking of a larger CSA(including the border states), a California which does not join the union and ends up controlling roughly the lands west of the Continental Divide, perhaps an independent Texas, plus the US keeping the rest of the lands. The point is to have some kind of American balance of powers that keeps this part of the world busy with itself and unable to intervene in the European wars of the XXth century.

So as a consequence of this and a number of other PODs of choice it is the Central Powers that win the First World War. Still, it is a long and bloody war, with all the OTL horror. The Russians collapse into revolution and civil war, the Germans end up taking Paris and the British are forced into a negotiated peace. I am largely assuming OTL economic/industrial/military capabilities for everyone, so the following speculations should be judged based on that too.

This was sort of the intro, I am most interested in what would happen after this. Here's one version.

- Germany organises the lands gained in the East into satellite-states: Poland, Ukraine, Belorussia, Baltic states
- Russia goes communist but maintains a leadership more focused on internationalism and does not degenarate into stalinist genocide & crap. Which is not to say it is an attractive regime, but keeps within the boundaries of a 'normal' dictatorship, without the extremes of OTL
- Communism, or sth very leftist, anyway, emerges as a dominant force in France and Italy. France is in a deep economic/social crisis and unlike OTL Germany it knows well that it cannot hope to ignite and win a new war. This bitter realisation discredits the far-right rethoric and (with or without a Great Depression) favours the rise of a left focused on attacking the establishment and demanding social reform. I would really like to see a communist France- I think the social basis is there, the French Far Left has always been very strong even in OTL and a lost world war could have provided the push in such a direction
- Austria-Hungary falls apart sooner or later; Austria, the Czech Republic, Greater Hungary, Croatia+Bosnia+Slovenia & Galicia become independent under German patronage; Austria joins Germany later and the Czech Republic becomes incorporated
- Germany finds itself slowly surrounded by leftist states: Russia, France, Italy, which instead of OTL fascism gravitates towards communism(also huge tradition and social base, think of OTL post WW2 Italian communist movement) and Spain, where the Civil War goes the other way. To make it a little more realistic Italy & Spain might remain alligned with the right due to German support for anti-communists
- But conflict brews in the east. In Ukraine and Belarus the far-right puppet-regimes kept in power by Germany are widely hated and support turns to underground communist movements run from Russia. Both Ukraine and Belarus have large Russian or Russophone populations who would be opposed to German rule and would rather gravitate towards the Soviet Union, which, I must emphasize again, would be much more attractive than OTL.
- The communist movement gains momentum in Germany too, and although it is nowhere near taking over power it creates a mass hysteria and inadvertently leads to the rise of more militant nationalists (not Nazis though)
- A successful communist coup in Ucraine leads to German intervention and a possible casus belli between the Soviets and the Germans

In fact this is one of my big questions: can u see a realistic Soviet-Russian war happening along the lines of the above scenario?


Anyway, this post is already long enough, so I'll end it here. Hope to have some answers.
 
Ok, perhaps the thread is too long and confusing.

So I'll just focus on the last question. If the Germans win WW1 and Russia goes communist as in OTL can you see a clash between these two powers within the next 20-30 years, or will Germany be too strong to be challenged?
 
So I'll just focus on the last question. If the Germans win WW1 and Russia goes communist as in OTL can you see a clash between these two powers within the next 20-30 years, or will Germany be too strong to be challenged?

IMO, Imperial Germany would not allow the Red government to stay in power.

The difficulty is that it is going to be very difficult for Germany to win with a PoD after the October Revolution, as the U.S. has already declared war.

If the PoD is earlier, preventing the U.S. from entering the war, then the Bolshevik takeover is probably avoided, as it was a very contingent event.

Or maybe not.

PoD: Germany has a bit more common sense in 1916-1917. German intelligence figures out some things: Russia is about to fall apart, Britain and France are close to exhaustion, the U.S. could be provoked into declaring war, and direct U.S. support would be worth more to the Allies than unrestricted submarine war would cost them.

Let's say that Britain adopts a convoy system in 1916, reducing the effectiveness of the U-boats considerably. Germany sends U-boats further afield, into the western Atlantic, with little success, and the U.S. screams bloody murder. Germany decides that the reduced damage the U-boats can do is not worth provoking the U.S. over. They back off. They stop worrying about a U.S. declaration of war, and don't commit the cosmic folly of the Zimmerman Note.

The U.S. remains neutral.

This has little direct effect on Europe. The Tsar is overthrown in the February Revolution. The Provisional Government tries to continue the war, but the army starts to dissolve and Red parties and assemblies spring up. In late 1917, the Bolsheviks seize control.

Germany forces a Brest-Litovsk style treaty on the Bolsheviks.
Meanwhile, Britain and France are in bad shape - very low on manpower and everything else. The French army mutinies against the suicide tactics of its commanders. The defeat of Russia is very demoralizing. In May 1918, Germany makes a major new attack in the west, which drives the Allies back to the outskirts of Paris - much closer than 1914. (It's not the lack of U.S. troops which makes the difference from OTL, it's the lack of U.S. money and supplies. Also, Germany waits longer to start the attack, since they are not trying to beat the arrival of the Americans, so they have time to bring more troops from the east.)

Though Germany has pretty much shot its bolt, the Allies don't know that. They offer peace.

So now we get to your premise: German victory, Bolshevik Russia.

This is going to be followed by a Russian Civil War much like OTL, and regardless of any treaty with the Reds, I think Imperial Germany intervenes to remove them.

The possibility of Red governments coming to power elsewhere is intriguing. However, one must also realize that even with the successful example of the Bolsheviks, there were no Communist revolutions or takeovers elsewhere. (Aside from Bela Kun's four-month reign in post-WW Hungary.)
 
The main difficulty with such a scenario is weakening Germany to the point where Russia and her allies see a reasonable chance of victory.

the Germans end up taking Paris and the British are forced into a negotiated peace .

If France is to remain as strong as possible, having the war in the west end in stalemate may be a better way to go.

- Germany organises the lands gained in the East into satellite-states: Poland, Ukraine, Belorussia, Baltic states.

That a German victory over Russia always results in Brest-Litovsk borders is a cliche which I find somewhat overused. IOTL the original German demands were IIRC congress Poland, Lithuania, Courland and nothing else.

- But conflict brews in the east. In Ukraine and Belarus the far-right puppet-regimes kept in power by Germany are widely hated and support turns to underground communist movements run from Russia. Both Ukraine and Belarus have large Russian or Russophone populations who would be opposed to German rule and would rather gravitate towards the Soviet Union, which, I must emphasize again, would be much more attractive than OTL.

Such unrest doesn’t have to be limited to Ukraine and Belorussia. If Germany tries, it can antagonize all the nationalities in the east. The direct incorporation of the whole of Bohemia won’t endear Germany to the Czechs and attempts at colonizing bits of Latvia and Poland, even if they fail, also won’t go down well with the locals.

IMO, Imperial Germany would not allow the Red government to stay in power.

Suppose Germany concludes that a Red Russia will be weaker/less dangerous then a White one, why wouldn’t it leave the Reds be?
 
That a German victory over Russia always results in Brest-Litovsk borders is a cliche which I find somewhat overused. IOTL the original German demands were IIRC congress Poland, Lithuania, Courland and nothing else.

Great point; I think the chances of a second war are definately greater if Russia is allowed to keep Ukraine. It can get stronger and pose a real challenge to German supremacy.

So now we get to your premise: German victory, Bolshevik Russia.

This is going to be followed by a Russian Civil War much like OTL, and regardless of any treaty with the Reds, I think Imperial Germany intervenes to remove them.

If Germany intervenes and forces a White victory than I think any chance of a future conflict is doomed. Maybe if the war in the West gets messy enough- I mean even more messy than it was- and distracts Germany for an other year or so, giving the Bolsheviks time to at least emerge as dominant among the various forces in the Civil War? Also, if the war ends in a stalmate in the West intervention in the East is unlikely and a second war some 10-20 years later almost certain.

The possibility of Red governments coming to power elsewhere is intriguing. However, one must also realize that even with the successful example of the Bolsheviks, there were no Communist revolutions or takeovers elsewhere. (Aside from Bela Kun's four-month reign in post-WW Hungary.)

There was a Bavarian Soviet Republic in OTL (defeated) Germany, but basically you're right, the French or Italian communist movements were just at their beginnings after WW1. Bela Kun's episode was kind of an anomaly and could only happen in the extreme situation that was Hungary's falling apart. I was thinking maybe later on in the 1930s or 40s after a Great Depression or some sort of an analogous economic downturn the Reds might gain strength, especially in France.
 
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