Germany wins WW1 but loses WW2

No, it could definately enforce it. In fact it did enforce it while still fighting in the West. Russia was in no shape to challenge German forces and failed when it tried.

If by enforce it you mean recognizing the USSR and backing the first White Armies which failed to capture the region around the Don.
 
If by enforce it you mean recognizing the USSR and backing the first White Armies which failed to capture the region around the Don.

By enforcing it I meant crushing the Red Armies in Frebruary 1918 and advancing with essentially no resistance. The Red Army struggled to defeat the poorly led and divded White forces IOTL, it stood no chance of opposing even token German garrisons.
 
By enforcing it I meant crushing the Red Armies in Frebruary 1918 and advancing with essentially no resistance. The Red Army struggled to defeat the poorly led and divded White forces IOTL, it stood no chance of opposing even token German garrisons.

The Germans did not send their troops west until after that advance. The Germans cannot send large armies traipsing into the center of Russia to hold and occupy it unless they want to become the second center of European communism.
 
The Germans did not send their troops west until after that advance. The Germans cannot send large armies traipsing into the center of Russia to hold and occupy it unless they want to become the second center of European communism.

But they can certainly hold what they already occupy; Ukraine, Belarus, the Baltics, etc.
 
The Germans did not send their troops west until after that advance. The Germans cannot send large armies traipsing into the center of Russia to hold and occupy it unless they want to become the second center of European communism.


No, but they could seize Moscow and Petrograd and hand them over to a White army coming from the east or south.

OTOH, they might be wiser not to. It might be better to use the threat of such intervention to secure a truce which leaves a small Bolshevik state in nthe middle and White regimes in Siberia and the south. That leaves a power vacuum, or close, on Germany's eastern flank.
 

Promor

Banned
Germany could definitely see being defeated in second world war. Although not by your exact scenario.

Russia can't be kept down, its too large and has too many resources.
If Germany goes on with its idea of creating puppet Ukraine it will naturally attract Russian antagonism.

A good idea would be(in terms of interesting scenario) if Germany gets bogged down in its Mitteleuropa plan and needs to constantly keep both Ukrainian and Polish national liberation movements as well as prop up Austro-Hungary from collapsing.
The oppressive nature of German rule will incite national feelings and you can see a rebirth of panslavism united against common enemy.
Poles and to lesser degree Czechs and Ukrainians will be excellent and natural tools for any powers that want to strike against German Empire.

You can envision Poland being ten times worse than Ireland for Germany, and Czechs using passive resistance like in India to compare the situation.
Ukrainian nationalist probably will result into hit and run attacks and some assassinations.

When war comes, Germany will be faced with mutinous army in Poland, uprising, and strikes in Ruhr, Bohemia, while Ukraine probably will have some guerilla movement as well.

Since the Mittleuropa plan had German minority and colonists used to administer exploited territories you will see vengeance attacks, probably like the Volhynia Massacres only in larger areas and bigger scale.
 
The problem is that I can't see these resistance movements siding with the Russians either, so once the Russians try to occupy the Ukraine, Baltics, and Belarus they're going to face organized and experienced partisan movements. Plus Russia will not be nearly as industrialized as it was IOTL; hell, it'll likely be at least partly dependenton the Ukraine for food imports. Imperial Germany's plan from the start was to cripple France and Russia as economic and military powers.
 
The problem is that I can't see these resistance movements siding with the Russians either, so once the Russians try to occupy the Ukraine, Baltics, and Belarus they're going to face organized and experienced partisan movements. Plus Russia will not be nearly as industrialized as it was IOTL; hell, it'll likely be at least partly dependenton the Ukraine for food imports. Imperial Germany's plan from the start was to cripple France and Russia as economic and military powers.

Again, Germany can only occupy Ukraine and the like territories if it's willing to face its own endless partisan resistance and if it's willing to pay in peacetime for one million Germans occupying territory which was far longer on promise than it was on delivery.
 
Again, Germany can only occupy Ukraine and the like territories if it's willing to face its own endless partisan resistance and if it's willing to pay in peacetime for one million Germans occupying territory which was far longer on promise than it was on delivery.

Ukrainian partisan movements against Germany were never extremely large and only picked up when German was on the brink of collapse and the regions had been essentially abandoned anyways. They existed of course but weren't nearly on the level of WW2 partisan movements. IOTL Germany was able to occupy Belarus, Ukraine, and the Baltic states with a couple hundred thousand men.
 
Last edited:
Ukrainian partisan movements against Germany were never extremely large and only picked up when German was on the brnk of collapse and the regions had been essentially abandoned anyways. They existed of course but weren't nearly on the level of WW2 partisan movements. IOTL Germany was ableto occupy Belarus, Ukraine, and the Baltic states with a couple hundred thousand men.

However at the same time the Germans were much less willing to depopulate entire regions to maintain control of it as was the standard practice in the WWII occupation. Either way, the Germans *will* have issues maintaining an occupation force one million strong when the war is over.
 
US does not enter the war on the side of the Entente

For that to happen you´d need to deal with 3 things:
- the Wilson administration which wanted to enter the war
- the German government which in its stupidity played into the hands of the Wilson administration (Zimmermann telegram, unrestricted submarine warfare)
- and maybe US banks which by that time have loaned a lot of money to the Entente powers. And facing the possibility that the losing side (especially Russia, maybe France and Italy?) might not be able to repay the loans.

German victory is late and not thorough; France is overrun either in 1918 or next year but Germany itself nearly collapses

In that case a negotiated peace of exhaustion (your point 3) seems plausible. However in that case I also see considerable pressure in Germany to move closer to a constitutional monarchy. Social Democrats, Catholic Center party (Zentrum) and the progressive Liberals after all do have a clear majority in the German parliament (Reichstag).
Millions of death and crippled soldiers aren´t exactly a recommendation for the old system.
It´s also possible that Emperor Wilhelm II might be forced to abdicate in favor of his son. His battlefield tourism (safely in the rear) and his "leadership" during the war made him somewhat unpopular...

The peace treaty is much less harsh, as Britain is still able to enforce some of its ideas; as Britain continues to rule the seas Germany makes no massive colonial gains

As I said above, plausible if this is a negotiated peace of exhaustion.
No great German gains in the West, no crippling reparations and no massive colonial gains. The treaty of Brest-Litovsk probably won´t be part of that peace treaty.

On the territory awarded to Germany by the treaty of Brest-Litovsk a chain of buffer states are formed: the Baltic States, Bielorussia and Ukraine; Poland becomes incorporated into Germany

You forgot Finland. :)
The rest is plausible with the exception of Poland. Won´t be incorporated into Germany. Don´t think Germany wants even more Poles inside Germany. It´s much more likely that we see "Congress Poland" (maybe with some parts pf Bielorussia and Austrian Galicia added) as an additional buffer state.
And all of them will probably be drawn into the German economic sphere.

Russia becomes communist, just as in OTL

Well, possibly...(to channel Blackadder :D)
Of course with Germany not defeated (no Versailles treaty) I would expect more German support (equipment and volunteers) to the White Russians?
Once the Great War ends I just can´t see Germany not involved. They´ll switch sides immediately.
Patriotic pragmatic German Social Democrats are one thing, atheist revolutionary Czar murdering Russian Communists are another. :)

Austro-Hungary disintegrates, with Greater Hungary, the Czech lands, Croatia and Austria becoming independent

Uh oh, a powder keg.
And no, if Austria-Hungary disintegrates, (German-) Austria will join Germany. The question is, in what borders? And what happens with minorities?
- How do you define Czech lands? German Austrian majority in the Sudetenland for example. German Austrian minorities in Czech cities. With an undefeated Germany you´ll likely see a smaller Czech state.
- Greater Hungary included - if I remember correctly - Croatia? And Slovakia too? So how does Croatia become independent?

A combination of feeling betrayed by the Peace Accords and the Great Depression brings to power sth like the Nazi Party in Germany in a more or less analogous way to OTL Italy

But Germany didn´t lose the war?
And German speaking Austria is now part of Germany. The "Reich" is larger.
No Versailles treaty and no reparations (except maybe to Belgium?).
One main reason for the Great Depression in Germany were the reparations. Getting US loans which were then transferred to the Entente countries as reparations. Who then used the money to repay their US war loans. Nice money circle for the USA. :)
And when the Great Depression started in OTL the US banks wanted their German loans back. And Germany couldn´t deliver.

Without Versailles there´s much less need for US loans to Germany.
Likewise without Versailles the German industry doesn´t lose its patents. Before WW1 the German chemical industry had an almost monopoly on dyes for example. So exports in the 1920s will be higher.
Not to mention that the new buffer states will be export markets for Germany.

WW2 goes on in a roughly parallel way to OTL with Bielorussia and Ukraine playing the part of Poland

Why?
Germany doesn´t has any (Versailles) territory claims against Bielorussia and Ukraine. Quite likely both of them are in the German economic (influence) zone. So why attack them?

And just to mention it.
The German generals in OTL weren´t that convinced of Hitler´s plans. There were quite a few assassination and coup plans. In your TL the generals still have a "higher" authority, the Emperor. Which means that in your TL the officers never swore an oath to obey a Nazi "Fuehrer". They´re still loyal to the Emperor, making it much more likely that more of them would support a coup if they felt that the country was in danger.
(In the - in my opinion - unlikely case that a Nazi like party would get a majority in your TL.)

At the end Germany is defeated and the maps are redrawn sth like OTL

Given my comments above I just don´t see any reason why your TL Germany should start WW2?
Likewise your TL Germany is unlikely to produce anything like our TL holocaust. Just like our TL fascist Italy - which you used ("in a more or less analogous way to OTL Italy") didn´t produce something like that.

Seems to me that if you somehow get your (Turtledove) result you´ll get a resentful post-WW2 Germany analogous to our TL post-WW1 Germany? :D
 
Ukrainian partisan movements against Germany were never extremely large and only picked up when German was on the brnk of collapse and the regions had been essentially abandoned anyways. They existed of course but weren't nearly on the level of WW2 partisan movements. IOTL Germany was ableto occupy Belarus, Ukraine, and the Baltic states with a couple hundred thousand men.

Darn, I guess that much of Kaiserreich isn't as far out in left field as I thought.
 
For that to happen you´d need to deal with 3 things:
- the Wilson administration which wanted to enter the war
- the German government which in its stupidity played into the hands of the Wilson administration (Zimmermann telegram, unrestricted submarine warfare)
- and maybe US banks which by that time have loaned a lot of money to the Entente powers. And facing the possibility that the losing side (especially Russia, maybe France and Italy?) might not be able to repay the loans.


Only the second of these really matters.

It is not at all clear that Wilson wanted war - though he may have been concerned at the prospect of being excluded from the peace table if he remained neutral to the end. Despite this, however, he had taken no action over the late 1916 sinkings of the armed merchantment Marina and Arabia, though these violated the strict letter of his Lusitania notes. Even in 1917 he hesitated to the bitter end, not finally summoning Congress until March 21, nearly two months after the resumption of unrestricted u-boat war, and practically a full month after reading the Zimmermann Telegram.

Nor is there any evidence that fear of an Allied defeat caused him any concern - if only because he did not particularly expect one. As of March 1917, conventional wisdom was betting on the Entente to win, probably before the end of the year. Even the Germans thought the same, hence their gambles on USW and the ZT. Only a handful in the upper reaches of the RN and the British Treasury knew better, and their views were of course a closely guarded secret, certainly not to be revealed to any neutral.

Regarding the loans (and apologising to all those for whom this is old hat) all loans prior to the declaration of war were secured on Allied (mainly British) property or investments in North America, so there was no danger of the subscribers losing their money. There would probably be a recession when the war ended, due to the cessation of munitions etc export, but this would happen whenever the end came and regardless of the outcome. It was indeed, exactly what did happen OTL, and gave Harding an additional (though unnecessary) boost on his way to the White House. From the pov of Wilson and the Democratic Party, it would have been better to have it in 1917/18, leaving time for recovery before the 1920 elections. They gained nothing by putting off the evil day.
 
Last edited:
Top