Germany wins the Marne... if there is a Marne

Title comes from the book "What If?: The World's Foremost Military Historians Imagine What Might Have Been" composed by Robert Crowley. It's my principal source for this speculative thread and the soruce of the title (which sounds too cool to not pass up), but I remember bits and pieces of information from elsewhere.

OK, now that the credit is given where it's due here we go.

Helmuth von Moltke attempted to execute a pre-war plan known as Aufmarsch II West, which called for 75% of the Combat manpower (this count excludes logistic personnel, but these guys do come west too... I'm guessing the number of logistics personnel you need is proportional to combat troops and length of supply line) to France and some to Russia.

France was anticipated to try to reconquer Lorraine. When they moved into the German territory, an army would march through Belgium and smack the rear lines where logistics structures would be and where long ranged artillery units would end up in short range of this force. A "hook" of the German wing under Kulk was supposed to encircle Paris.

It should be noted that during the early days of the Western front, cavalry was still actually useful for skirmishing, reconnaissance, and pursuit (obviously a cav frontal assault would fail even against poorly organized soldiers thanks to bolt action rifles). It was maneuverer rather than trench warfare, and some units used bayonets and sabers. Sometimes units moved 20 kilometers in a day, and the cavalry divisions sometimes moved in quick bursts of speed.

Of course the plan is not exactly how things went.

First off, the Schlieffen Plan for Promenade West had some flaws. The designer wanted to use the Belgian railroads to resupply the troops and... surprise in the real war they were destroyed before the Germans could use them. Moltke three years prior to the war started working on a plan B using horse transportation of food and ammunition. It worked decently enough in 1914. Some of the flaws involved some of the Belgian forts, but the defenders made some ill-advised sorties, so that worked just fine. If the French focused everything on a defensive posture on the Rhine, even if they were surprised by an attack from the North, they would probably be able to parry the Germans, but in the early days before Nancy the French were pretty much doing everything the plan assumed they would do.

And then things started going wrong. Instead of having 75% of the combat manpower, Moltke moved four corps from the west army right flank before the war to Prussia.

When going through Belgium, Moltke respected Dutch neutrality, which surprisingly went OK. The troops marched through an awkward squeeze, but this didn't go too bad with Moltke's improvisations. So far so good.

On August 20, the French suffered a humiliating defeat and were sent scurrying back to the Nancy area or the Grand Couronne. Germany cavalry ran down some of them until nightfall. General Krafft (forgot surname) wanted to peruse the French, arguing they were disorganized. On August 22 Moltke gave permission "Pursue direction Epinal" (quote comes from Cowley's book). he hoped to replicate the battle of Cannae and squeeze the French like pincers (Cannae was a bit of an obsession of the Moltke) A three pronged attack with 3 corps from the North and East attacked the Grand Couronne, but while the retreating soldiers offered little resistance, the infantry reserves in Nancy and Epinal did and the Epinal fortress artillery proved to massacre the Germans. Whoops. Also, the Epinal fortress was most armed in the attack the Germans came from.

On August 22, Moltke tried to send 3 corps and a cavalry division from the German center in the West to the East because the Russians were attacking Prussia and the roads in the East was clogged with fleeing Germans. In the end, he took 1 corp from the right wing (that was already in Belgium) and one from the center to help the east. General Ludendorff claimed they were not needed. In fact, the troops arrived seven days after the battle and they could only help the pursuit phase. Moltke would say that was his biggest mistake before the Marne.

And two more corps were unavailable for the Marne. One was sent to a frontal assault on a fortress, and one was sent to help the siege of one, despite the commander there protesting he had three times as many soldiers as he needed. Eventually the battle of Marne fought, a decisive anti-German victory. Even if the Germans had won, they would have only been able to do a limited pursuit due to the fact that their ammunition consumption exceeded what was being brought in by rail, so horses and men were porting stuff over.

Timeline Proposal

OK, so let's had a few changes to history, but this isn't going to be all about the Germans. Back in 1880s, suppose something is done to make the Savoy dynasty of Italy unpopular in the cities. This continues.

Eventually in 1911, a revolution sweeps Italy. it looks like a repeat of the revolutions of the 1830s. The government forces want to hold. It is estimated that perhaps there are 13% revolutionaries, 40% loyalists, and everyone else simply are neutrals. The monarchy retains support in rural areas close to Savoy, the Island of Sardinia, and the Po river valley as well as the city of Venice. The king however is unnerved by the angry mob in Rome who kills an aide and the army refuses to use lethal force unless the mob becomes armed. A shot is fired and the king runs away. Once in the safety of a building, he orders the evacuation of the royal family and orders the gold reserves be put on a ship. He sneaks away to Vienna with his family... leaving the loyalist cause headless. The Republic of Italy is declared.

The dethroned King asks the Hapsburgs to restore him, but the Germans veto that idea as long as Italy behaves along modified lines of the triple alliance. Previously it was purely a defensive one. Germany proposes an admenmant to the treaty. In exchange for "not pushing the King's claim for this generation" the defensive alliance would remain and Italy would declare on France within 3 months of Germany declaring war on France. It does not explicitly deny the legitimacy of the deposed monarch's claim, but the claim will not be pushed.

Over the next few years, the Italian Republic attempts to stabilize itself. The army is purged of royalist looking officers. Elections are held, but many weak and... loopy MPs appear. A four month period goes through four elections. The republic has little gold reserves. They attempt to issue debt and raise taxes to finance themselves. It gives out generous farm subsidies, to attempt to appease the rural areas as this revolution was primarily based on the cities and a huge Roman mob deriving off their king. Foreign debt piles up to 310% of GDP and another 30% from internally. Inflation runs at 30%. Apparently these investors are investing in debt of a government that can't pay back. These investors are completely unrealistic. The army sometimes has weeks without pay.

Moltke decides to move 4 corps from the right army as in OTL, but only one goes east and the other three go to the center of the west army group.

In 1914, the assassination of the Archduke happens as in OTL. A European War is on.

The French attack Lorraine, attempting to drive the Germans to the Rhine. The Germans attack through Belgium and surprise the French (and Belgians... seriously that was a dick move). Moltke manages to restrain himself from sending more corps east and at the Grand Cournne ignores the "opportunity" for a Cannae.

This means General von Kluck's first army proceeds faster. With more manpower, the hook can go around Paris. According to Crowley, the Verdun forts were nearly surrounded in OTL late September, according to him without detaching crops fromt he Grand Cournne or the East,in TTL they can be surrounded mid September. Rhiem will fall. The German left launched a single pronged breakthrough attack while the German center launches two, one towards nothing (just west I guess) and one towards Kluck's army.

But it gets worse for the French. He assumed the redeployment to the east prewar still happened, but I had TTL West front have 3 more corps than OTL, and they make the center smack that much harder.

And, my personal addition, in TTL, 7/8 of the French manpower on the continent and most of their artillery is stuck in east France or Lorraine with kluck behind them (with Rhiem captured) and the German center in front of them. This group has no friendly rail line to feed them. This might actually be an underestimation of their commitment to the front with plan 17 in OTL.

Crowley says the deceive battle might be in Fontineblue. If the French pull of a Battle of balaclava (where a numerically inferior British cavalry changed uphill and won and a numerically inferior British Light cavalry Brigade charged a different battery and... well lost but by all odds should have not overrun the battery they were charging at before losing) and beat the odds, they can break out and regroup to the west, but give the Germans time to resupply and think about their next move (they can't peruse for more than a week without outrunning their own supply lines). if they lose (the expected result, no way to get food and ammo and the Germans have the favorable ground), then that's 7/8 of the French Continental gone and most of their artillery.

That leaves the Belgians, and the British. In TTL, the British have been on the recieving end of a German attack, thanks to the speed of the Germans. At most, they might have engaged Kluck's army in a few counterattacks and he might have driven then off, but they always disengaged successfully.

In the East, the Germans destroy an entire army at Tannenberg, but without the extra corps, their pursuit is weaker.

Suddenly, unlike Corwley's WI, republic Italy (revolutionary Italy?) with their unstable government with several unstable MPs suddenly declare war on Austria as Rhiem is falling to the Germans. The caussia belli is that the previous king stole their gold reserves and he's in Austria.

For the army, many of the artillery regiments sabotage their guns and walk away. There are other desertions. Meanwhile, many Italians successfully attack the undefended Austria boarder. In three weeks, the army is at 30% of its 1911 size (desertions) but desertions stop with two factors. One is the government giving all the back pay owed by the government and promising to not fall behind. Another is the Austrians declaring since the Italians elected a liberal anti-royalsit party in charge that violated the alliance agreement, it is not only the government that needs to be punished, but the people of Italy.

The Germans immediately transfer 32,000 from the Russian front to Austria.

Thoughts

Who do you think ultimately wins?

If the Germans finish up in the West, despite the "distraction" Italy is making, how do you think it's done? Remember, the French still have 1/8 of their manpower in their European army, and can call a colonial army to reinforce. The British have seen several battles and gotten their hands on some real battle, but without suffering significant casualties.

Also, how does the Italian revolution followed by inflation and declaring war of Austria will work? They attacked much sooner than OTL and the Austrians would be 100% unprepared by the betrayal instead of half expecting it.
 
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