RodentRevolution
Banned
Because imperfect information sometimes results in imperfect decisions being made. In 1916/1917 CP powers were not fully aware of the imminent financial crisis facing the Entente, the CP powers were not fully aware of the crisis of manpower and morale facing the French army, or the imminent collapse of Imperial Russia.
If the US remains neutral (i.e. does not bankroll the Entente war effort), any one of the above matters could become critical/fatal to the Entente cause. Without the US, following the collapse of Imperial Russia, the CP powers would gradually recover while the Entente would gradually grow weaker.
Further, if the Entente can no longer afford to buy war material from the US, the 'pro-Entente' faction within the US may fade - others in the US will be demanding open trade with the CP powers...
So we are back to there needing to be a financial crisis for the Entente. Some sources with the relevant numbers would be good. Because one of the frustrating things about investigating this financial crisis of 1917 is outside some pop history speculation I am not finding much evidence for one.
I mean take the Federal Reserve Bulletin, April 1 1917
On March 8 the Federal Reserve issues statement noting that it does not in fact intend for banks to not take any foreign securities but "American funds may, with advantage to the country's foreign trade and the domestic economic situation, be employed in the purchase of such securities."
It also notes later that "The past month has seen a resumption of offerings of foreign securities in the United States, some protected by collateral, others not."
Among these in particular it makes mention of $100,000,000 of French 5.5% notes.
Hardly a cry of don't buy.
It might be worth noting that bulletin was prepared before Wilson had gone to Congress to ask for a declaration of war, let alone Congress making up its mind on the matter.