Germany vs Japan 1915

Lets say Germany wins the 1914 campaign through a couple of PODs. Perhaps the Austrians stay deployed defensively in Galacia, combined with no German panic in East Prussia means more German forces remain in the west. Germans win the Marne, keeping Rheims, encircling Verdun and ending up with Amiens and bulk of the Calais area. Austrian Galacia is held by Austria.

December 1914: In a position of advantage, and concerned about long term economic damage Germany offers easy terms. France only suffers colonial losses (Togo extended north to Niger). Belgium loses Liege to Germany, Germany gains Luxembourg too. Russia forced to deal with Austrian occupation of north Serbia until Austria is satisfied with investigation of assassination (no Russian territorial losses though). Britain also makes peace without losses. The troops are all home by Christmas.

However Japan refuses to give up any territory taken from Germany. Is it possible for the High Seas Fleet to deploy into the Pacific and take Tsingtao and the various islands back by force.
 

cpip

Gone Fishin'
Possible? Yes. The ships are seaworthy enough, the crews are competent enough, and given some work they might even be able to arrange a logistical train.

Likely? Well, making that logistical train is going to be chancy -- the Russians managed it by having the French on their side, for instance -- and the High Seas Fleet isn't really designed for crew comfort on a painfully long deployment like that. Further, they'll have to secure friendly ports in the region of some kind. Additionally, they'll want to retain SOME of the ships at home to deter any European power from getting too adventuresome.

It's not beyond the realm of possibility, and there will be voices in America willing to offer to sell coal to the Kaiser and let him make a brief stop at Manila Bay along the way.

This probably won't end like Tsushima. It won't, however, be a pushover either way, I think.
 
Possible? Yes. The ships are seaworthy enough, the crews are competent enough, and given some work they might even be able to arrange a logistical train.

Likely? Well, making that logistical train is going to be chancy -- the Russians managed it by having the French on their side, for instance -- and the High Seas Fleet isn't really designed for crew comfort on a painfully long deployment like that. Further, they'll have to secure friendly ports in the region of some kind. Additionally, they'll want to retain SOME of the ships at home to deter any European power from getting too adventuresome.

It's not beyond the realm of possibility, and there will be voices in America willing to offer to sell coal to the Kaiser and let him make a brief stop at Manila Bay along the way.

This probably won't end like Tsushima. It won't, however, be a pushover either way, I think.


If Germany has defeatd Frnce then the French would be very helpful towards Germany. Picking on Japan is a low cost effort. The French bases in Vietnam remain and can serve to support German operations. The technical improvements from 1904 would make the operation much easier. The turbin engine above all

The Japanese fleet isn't that great in 1914 and the Germans ccan concentrate their fleet. Japan really has little chance at all
 
The biggest concern is the terrible endurance of the Hochseeflotte battleships and battlecruisers. They were designed almost explicitly for operations in the North Sea, with short ranges (Bayerns could go 5,000 nmi. at 12 knots) and poor crew habitability. German battleship crews rarely spent more than three days at sea at any one time and lived onshore in barracks at their naval bases. You could look at the habitability issues the Soviets faced with their ships in the 1970s and 1980s. Having said that, I think the Germans would have a better chance of getting to Indochina than the Russians in 1904 did.

Once they get there, however, the German fleet will be clearly dominant over the Japanese battle line. The Japanese fleet would have four hexagonal dreadnoughts, two Kongo-class battlecruisers, and a number of slow pre-dreadnoughts (they might be able to bring four or so). The Hochseeflotte would probably bring 3rd Battle Squadron's eight Konig- and Kaiser-class battleships and 1st Scouting Group's five battlecruisers, which could easily defeat whatever the Japanese could bring, unless the Kongo and Hiei punch above their weight.
 
If Germany has defeatd Frnce then the French would be very helpful towards Germany. Picking on Japan is a low cost effort. The French bases in Vietnam remain and can serve to support German operations. The technical improvements from 1904 would make the operation much easier. The turbin engine above all

The Japanese fleet isn't that great in 1914 and the Germans ccan concentrate their fleet. Japan really has little chance at all

This is a joke, right?
 
This is a joke, right?

No, what makes you think that? The thread assumes that the French have been defeated. What would the French gain by being antagonistic towards a power that has just beaten her armies? What reason would the French have in resting Germany to help the Japanese retain Kaichow? The French know that picking a new fight with Germany is a sure loser. Why are they risking Paris?
 

GarethC

Donor
PERFIDY IN CHANNEL!
GERMAN FLEET IN SURPRISE ATTACK!

The Grand Fleet will shadow the HSF to make sure it isn't actually a cover for an invasion of Britain - as it is an expeditionary force for the invasion of somewhere, and it would be quite embarrassing if the Andrew let it sail blithely up the Humber and deposit three divisions unmolested.

French, Dutch, and possibly Danish ships will also be present, along with a hodgepodge of civilian shipping.

What if, during a fog, one ship opens fire and a general melée results?

The HSF contingent will be overwhelmed by the GF -more so than Jutland, as some German units will be retained to defend Germany and the firing will start in close contact with further to retreat and possibly without minefields to retreat through.
 
One factor that might be worth considering is the Anglo-Japanese Naval Treaty (renewed and expanded in 1911). Under the terms of this, Britain would be obliged to assist Japan if Japan is attacked. If Germany has sent the HSF to the Pacific (and we'll ignore the likelihood or otherwise of it getting there), then the HSF is not near the German coast. If Britain decides to honour the terms of the treaty, German coastal locations might be in for a world of hurt.

It is likely that the German Powers That Be will be aware of this, and this might affect what forces get sent in the first place.
 
No, what makes you think that? The thread assumes that the French have been defeated. What would the French gain by being antagonistic towards a power that has just beaten her armies? What reason would the French have in resting Germany to help the Japanese retain Kaichow? The French know that picking a new fight with Germany is a sure loser. Why are they risking Paris?

Fair point, but I still wouldn't use the word "helpful" of them.
 
Its probably likely the Germans could use Rabaul, Lae and Samoa as staging areas as Australia and New Zealand are not going to stand up to Germany.

Use of Dutch ports and shipping are likely as Japan might not mind seeing Japan knocked down a peg or two.

Russia I could see being helpful, especially if shut out of the Balkans and Turkey in making a power vacuum in the east by making Japan weaker.

France, unsure how much after a war on her own soil, even if she gets off easy, may not be interested in helping Germany, but if Germany is paying cash for supplies, having the Germans distracted in a far away place might not be a bad idea.

England, will be putting pressure on the Japanese to make peace on pre-war terms, which the Germans would take if offered. But any German ships lost in the Pacific only helps England and having the German distracted out here is not a bad idea. They certainly won't be helping Germany and will be giving intel to the Japanese and even materiel assistance in terms of supplies. If Germany wins and offers reasonable terms though Britain will stand by.

Tirpitz and the naval boys are going to be all over this as a way to prove the value of the German fleet.
 

cpip

Gone Fishin'
If Germany has defeatd Frnce then the French would be very helpful towards Germany. Picking on Japan is a low cost effort. The French bases in Vietnam remain and can serve to support German operations. The technical improvements from 1904 would make the operation much easier. The turbin engine above all

The Japanese fleet isn't that great in 1914 and the Germans ccan concentrate their fleet. Japan really has little chance at all

Are you suggesting that Germany will simply threaten a new war against France if they do not yield the ports?

While I don't doubt France will (perhaps grudgingly) sell them coal, without becoming a co-belligerent there are very specific rules concerning what France may do to "assist" Germany. I find it more likely that they'll simply abide by the duties and rules of neutrals: sell coal and help fill the German bunkers as long as the HSF departs a port within twenty four hours.

One factor that might be worth considering is the Anglo-Japanese Naval Treaty (renewed and expanded in 1911). Under the terms of this, Britain would be obliged to assist Japan if Japan is attacked. If Germany has sent the HSF to the Pacific (and we'll ignore the likelihood or otherwise of it getting there), then the HSF is not near the German coast. If Britain decides to honour the terms of the treaty, German coastal locations might be in for a world of hurt.

It is likely that the German Powers That Be will be aware of this, and this might affect what forces get sent in the first place.

The Anglo-Japanese treaty has a couple of outs in it: one is that if the Japanese are only involved in a war with a single power, then the British are not yet bound to intervene (the clause that kept things interesting in the Russo-Japanese War and kept the French sitting very much out of it). Germany is unlikely to bring anyone else along to the fight, for instance. However, Germany is quite unlikely to dispatch the entirety of their fleet and leave their shorelines undefended, which reduces the force that can be dispatched against Japan even further.

Which brings us back to Aphrodite's point above: if France begins providing more aid than the requirements of neutrals -- say, by providing German ships with operating harbors -- then the British are freely able to intervene against the Germans: and the number one threat of Germany, its fleet, is off battling the Japanese. The Grand Fleet can administer quite the drubbing against the German shore, should it feel inclined, if it no longer needs to fear the HSF.
 
I am thinking the German HSF fleet would go around South America, lots of neutral ports for supplies.

Germany could just arrange for neutral shipping to drop off coal food and other supplies at Rabaul and work their way up the Marshals, Carolines, etc,

It seems Germany could bring all the Dreadnought class Battleships and Battlecruisers (plus Blucher), along with a still intact East Asia squadron from Chile.

Leaving back all the pre dreadnought and older torpedo boats and submarines for coastal defense.

Bringing the escorting destroyers along seems the tricky part, might take some repair time in a decent port after such a voyage
 
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