Sub Wars !
The Prelude
The idea is that a result of German victory in Unrestricted Submarine Warfare in the Great War, the powers turn their attention to the building of large submarine fleets in the 1920s. Not just the fleets are large, but also the submarines themselves, as a new kind of naval race engulfs the nations
Yes, I know people don't agree with it, but THIS aapect that you are reading NOW is the one I wanted to devote my energies to; the first was just a how to get there thread.
After a Winter of Discontent 1915-1916, Britain is forced to sue for peace. One imagines that Asquith's coalition government quits, and that a new coalition under MacDonald reforms. Germany is in no position to be doctrinaire about things - yes, 1915 has been largely a victorious year, but it has been expensive, and many of the victories have been in defeating offensives against them. They are in no clear way any closer to winning the war, and the United States is hurriedly scrabbling together a meaningful force to send to France, to augment Theodore Roosevelt's 15000-strong volunteer force.
But Germany's apprehension can easily be turned on its head by all of the Allied & Associated Powers. Worst of all is Serbia who has virtually ceased to exist - its country has been conquered, its army, court, government and many of its people dead or fled. A few starving formations have already been deployed to Salonika, the majority are in desperate straits on Corfu. Russia can hardly look on things in a rosy light - its made gains and advances on the Caucasus front, but its campaigns in the West have ended in unmitigated disaster. Poland has been lost and Warsaw fallen, counter-attacks have been ghastly failures, and since the Tsar saw fit to appoint himself directly commander-in-chief in high Summer, his personal popularity has plummeted, whilst the government, abandoned in Petrograd by their Autocrat, has fallen under the sway of the empress and Rasputin.
France remains hopeful, however. US forces would plug the gap left by the British, the army is continuing to build up and replace even horrendous losses, and the generals have great plans for the coming year. Italy also remains optimistic - all of its Isonzo campaigns to date may have achieved little, but they have made more gains than losses in territory, and though the loss in manpower is higher on the Italian side, than on the Austrian, it is still heavy on the latter.
Thus, after starvation, riots, strikes and civil strife leads Britain to sue for terms, the rest of the Allies continue to try to fight on. It doesn't work
US troopships are convoyed across the N Atlantic by the US battlefleet as Washington realises that all of Germany's u-boats are now free to face the Americans. Meanwhile, in early Spring 1916 civil war breaks out in Ireland, crippling Britain's will, and making it certain that they will not resume the war if the Armistice does not become permanent.
Roosevelt and Joffre launch a massive offensive on the Western Front, but it collapses within the week, and German counter-attacks over-run many outer Allied trenches. Meanwhile, US relations with Mexico have plumetted, and General Pershing is forced to focus much of the US armed forces there. General Wood leads the newest units to Europe, and provokes a major internal crisis in US affairs by demanding the senior role from the established Roosevelt
Freed of having to fight the British and Indians in Mesopotamia, the Ottoman Empire diverts forces towards the Caucasus and the new Russian offensive is blunted and turned back upon itself. At the same time, new Russian offensives in the West collapse almost completely and lead to a German-Austrian advance
Food supplies and raw materials are now reaching Germany in greater quantities, though Britain and the dominions refuse to participate, and the US attempts to impose a blockade of its own.
Mutinies begin to affect various units of the French army as the relentless call for new offensives, and the chaos amongst its Allies, lead many troops to wonder what they are fighting for.
British and German representatives meet at The Hague. Germany's demands are simple - restitution of all property seized and sequestrated, immediate release of all POWs, British and dominion evacuation of all colonies occupied, and an immediate resumption of trade. MacDonald's position is weak, but he has to hold out on the dominions. Canada and Australia have already agreed to the Armistice in withdrawing their forces from combat, but neither Australia, New Zealand or South Africa will retrocede the colonies they have occupied. They have told MacDonald that they will remain in the war as long as necessary to achieve these aims, even if this continuance of war is effectively a meaningless state of affairs
MacDonald is able to offer immediate evacuation of Kamerun, Togoland and Tanganyika, but makes clear that the dominion objections over the rest are not within his power to do anything about. German negotiators are caught in a trap - on the one hand they desperately need the Armistice to turn into a final treaty in order to completely pull the rug out from under the feet of the Allies, but on the other they can't justify to the Reichstag abandoning the colonies. As a compromise they offer 'compensation' for the effort to seize them, effectively offering to buy them back. With the terms leaked, and with many people weary of the war, Australia and New Zealand agree but name a seemingly high figure. This is accepted by Berlin, and Britain, Canada, Australia, New Zealand and all Crown Colonies sign the final treaty. South Africa remains in a state of war, demanding SW Afrika by right of conquest
News of the peace treaty comes as a hammer blow to the Allies. Roosevelt has already been ailing from nervous stress after his battles with his one-time friend Long over command and representation, and learning of the Treaty of the The Hague pushes him into a terminal decline. This blow to US morale is coupled with the spreading of the mutinies amongst the French army, and the outbreak of strikes, riots and civil strife in France itself.
In Petrograd, a cabal of young nobles and royals effectively stages a palace coup, murdering Rasputin, and relegating the empress to Tsarskoe Selo. Tsar Nicholas II attempting to return to the capital from STAVKA is way-laid by a group of senior Grand Dukes who attempt to convince him to save the dynasty and the monarchy. Meanwhile, Petrograd is bubbling uneasily, with men and women taking to the streets, and the news from Britain and France leadnig to hundreds of thousands calling for peace. Prince Lvov is installed as Acting Prime Minister after guards, loyal to the Grand Dukes, take the ineffective and hated incumbent into custody.
The Tsar is all for executing the conspirators, reinstating his man as Prime Minister, and calling the guard out on the demonstrators. The Grand Dukes, backed by the commanders of the military trains, insist that such a course is suicidal and that for his own good they will not allow the Tsar's train to return to the capital.
Falkenhayn orders a targeted attack in the West, breaking through some of the most depleted and demoralised French forces before reinforcements, and General Wood's taking of direct command with the American contingent plug the gap. Most mutineers so far pledge to defend the line, but no longer to attack, but the collapse is indicative of how much they may be unable to do this in current circumstances.
Fighting has now broken out on the streets of Paris, with the government withdrawing to Bordeaux in order to be able to continue to operate. Votes of no confidence bring down the administration, but the president is unable to find anyone able to weld together enough of a coalition in order to govern
In the East, Mackensen is unleashed upon the Russians, and the line collapses. German and Austrian forces thrust East in several areas, whilst it is all the Russians can do to regroup and withdraw without being cut off. Tens of thousands are not so lucky, and POW camps begin to rapidly fall up. German forces besiege Riga, whilst in the South only swift action prevents a surprise German thrust from breaking out towards Kiev.
As Summer 1916 begins, President Wilson is faced with the unpalatable truth - the war in Europe is lost, and the US will gain nothing from continuing to pour its money and manpower into it. His hopes for re-election are virtually nil, and his only consolation is that he has outlived Roosevelt. All military resources are diverted to Pershing to help crush resistance in N Mexico, whilst the US Ambassador to France informs President Poincare that Washington is of the opinion that the Allies should immediately press for an Armistice, before things get any worse
In Petrograd, worker unrest has led to the formation of emergency committees who exist side by side with the guard units and Lvov's struggling administration. Nicholas, eventually worn down by the Grand Dukes issues a decree, formalising events in Petrograd and announcing his abdication in favour of the Tsesarevitch, with his brother Michael as Regent. There is much rejoicing along the front when the latter is made public, and Michael hurries to Petrograd to take up his responsibilities
Poincare and Wilson issue a joint statement, requesting an Armistice off the German Empire. It is agreed to within 24 hours, and fighting ceases along the Western front.
In the East, King Constantine's royalist government declares for the Central Powers, and sends loyalist forces towards Salonika. This threat leads the Allied commanders there to browbeat the Serbs into agreeing the Armistice, and agreeing an immediate withdrawal from the enclave.
Renewed Russian spirit halts a German drive towards Riga, but Michael's first act upon taking the oath as Regent is to direct Prince Lvov to request an Armistice on all fronts from the Central Powers. This is in place within 48 hours
Rome is in chaos, with the front holding (*see Note) but Italy's allies deserting her en masse. Opposition assembly members force through a vote of no confidence, and Giolitti is reappointed Prime Minister. He immediately orders a ceasefire across the Northern front, and negotiates an Armistice with Berlin and Vienna.
The end to the war is viewed by many as a victory in itself. A general European Congress is convened at The Hague, where the experience of holding the Anglo-German talks has given the Dutch government confidence in their abilities.
In Japan, the end of the war in Europe comes as something of a puzzle. It has clearly been on the cards for some months, so is not a shock, but at the same time what to do about it confounds many. The empire has mainly dedicated its energies to subjugating China in the absence of any meaningful US opposition, and Yuan's declaration of himself as Emperor of a new dynasty has been supported by, in fact abetted, by the Japanese.
The government in Tokyo has no intention of giving up anywhere it considers vital for its hold on China - both Port Arthur (where they took over the Russian lease at the end of the R-J War) and Tsingtao (which they took by conquest in 1914) qualify as this. Berlin uses Sweden as an intermediary, and the Swedish embassy passes on proposals from the German government. Now that most of the colonies have already been returned, and that the end of the war equates to a de facto victory in Europe, Germany can afford to be more generous, and accept some losses. Berlin proposes that Tokyo offer modest compensation for Tsingtao and remain in possession of it, but retrocede the N Pacific island groups. Tokyo requests to hold onto Yap and Truk as bases, and a compromise is reached where they will return to German civil administration, but where Japan can build and operate their own bases. Berlin also asures itself that Tokyo has no intention of renewing the alliance with Britain when it lapses - as additional confirmation, Germany will accept Japan's position in China for assurances on this point
Best Regards
Grey Wolf
*Note - Austria does not launch the Trentino Offensive against Italy in May because its armies are surging forward in the East, and even Conrad is not mad enough to try a second major offensive at the same time.