Germany victory WW1 in first submarine offensive

pacifichistorian said:
Grey, have you considered the impact of DF & crypto? Rm 40 was reading HSF messages, & could tell when HSF was going to sortie; with increased pressure, I imagine they'd soon get onto knowing when U-boats are sailing. Also, I'd expect RN to mine the approaches to Kiel Canal posthaste, knowing U-boats are using it...
- - -
In addition, I'm unconvinced sinking a couple of liners is enough to bring the U.S. in. Now, a real (or rumored) U-boat massacre of passengers, of women & children...except, AFAIK, there never was one, nor do I think USG is going to respond to HMG propaganda claiming one. Of course, if it was a mistake, a U-boat skipper firing to KO a liner & hitting a lifeboat full of women/kids in error...

I don't THINK WW1 u-boats used radio much, and they certainly weren't co-ordinated into hunting packs by it like at theheight of WW2's Battle of the Atlantic. There is really no NEED for radio, since once sent out, the u-boat has a designated hunting ground, and presumably a mission length.

I don't think that u-boats had call signs either - I recall that the HSF flagship did, and that the German admiralty confused the British by transferring its call-sign to shore when starting an operation. Given that this is the FLAGSHIP, I don't think that ANY u-boats would have such. Since there is no effort at co-ordination after the fact, no German transmitters are going to be sending out signals either

Well, given the political landscape of 1915, I went with what DID happen. If the Germans had refused to do anything aftter the Lusitania it would have prevented the powering down of tension, whilst an Arabic type incident would have ramped things up again massively. I obviously don't KNOW that rhetoric and bombasity would result in a US declaration of war, but it seems that Wilson would have no choice after what he'd said.

Best Regards
Grey Wolf
 
I don't THINK WW1 u-boats used radio much, and they certainly weren't co-ordinated into hunting packs by it like at theheight of WW2's Battle of the Atlantic. There is really no NEED for radio, since once sent out, the u-boat has a designated hunting ground, and presumably a mission length.

I don't think that u-boats had call signs either - I recall that the HSF flagship did, and that the German admiralty confused the British by transferring its call-sign to shore when starting an operation. Given that this is the FLAGSHIP, I don't think that ANY u-boats would have such. Since there is no effort at co-ordination after the fact, no German transmitters are going to be sending out signals either
Maybe I'm being too influenced by WW2. Still, IMO, you're wrong about no callsign; every ship has a callsign so it can be addressed in messages, & can ref what ship a message comes from. Also, there's bound to be some U-boat message traffic to be DFd: contact reports of important units & sinkings, at least, unless WW1 BdU was much quieter even than PacFlt Sub Force WW2 (which was about as quiet as it got, IMO).

In re "confused the British", it really didn't; Rm 40 noticed it, & knew the change meant HSF was about to sortie...
Well, given the political landscape of 1915, I went with what DID happen. If the Germans had refused to do anything aftter the Lusitania it would have prevented the powering down of tension, whilst an Arabic type incident would have ramped things up again massively. I obviously don't KNOW that rhetoric and bombasity would result in a US declaration of war, but it seems that Wilson would have no choice after what he'd said.
You may be right, there. As noted, I'd rather see a stronger incident on top of Lusitania, myself, but if you're satisfied, I'll let go.
 
For each boat on station you will want one marching for relief, one returning to base after relief, and one (if not two) at base for repair and maintenance.
90 x 4 = 360.
In 1917, there were 136 boats available, of which 105 were for front use. That means approx. one quarter for the u-boat-school.
360 + 90 = 450.

I forgot, there were 10 boats at Istanbul, additional to those at Pola and Cattaro.

Germans used radio and transmitted orders to deployed boats, but the process was cumbersome and took time. Irish Sea was always critical because of great distance.
They also had radio reconnaissance and had broken into RN codes and used radio callsigns to detect ships. (Only didn't make that much fuss about it - even after the war.)
 
Rast, I'm afraid I am going to have to continue to disagree. I can't quote facts and figures back at you, since I simply don't know where to find them and it would take me days to gather sufficient information just to make one post. I just feel that your numbers are completely wrong - I'm not challenging the basis for your derivation of them, only the logic that leads to them.

I read a lot of important people saying that losses are becoming increasingly difficult to sustain. I see a report from early 1917 saying that if losses continue at this rate then the war is lost by November. The German Navy had nowhere near the strength you are saying it needed to win, but what it did have was doing a good enough job. If in Autumn 1915 its numbers could begin to approach 1917 numbers, with better bigger u-boats, then the countermeasures are going to be much less developed against them.

Couple the shortages in Britain with the unremitting bad news from every front, and you have a combination of unrest and a fall in morale. I could go into detail about how this works in practice, but again do I want to spend several days researching strikes, the agreements between the unions and industry, shortages, the political scene at grassroots, and the position of Ramsey MacDonald ? None of these particuarly enthrall me as something to be spending my time reading about. I've read it all in the past and feel there's enough synthesis there to work with.

David Marquand in his biography of MacDonald describes what he calls "a great meeting" at Briton Ferry in S Wales, addressed by MacDonald and attended by many who opposed the war. The authorities tried to sabotage it by turning off the electricity but it went ahead by candlelight. I assume he uses the term "great" to imply an impressive attendance, even in OTL early 1916. Such meetings and subsequent agitation would be far more numerous in this timeline

Instead of having him and his views increasingly reviled and denounced, the shortages and unremitting sense of imminent doom would begin to swing popular opinion around his way.

Anyway, its probably too late to rescue this timeline now, so its probably another one consigned into the dustbin of alternate history

Best Regards
Grey Wolf
 
No worry, my numbers are for a knock-out victory by submarine warfare. - You are building a picture of slow and uncertain progress that eventually leads to a different end of the Great War.

IOTL when the 1917 submarine offensive started, the Germans thought they needed 200 boats to fill 48 combat stations around Great Britain - but had only 105 at the front and 136 in total. Many of these were small UII Flanders boats without sufficient range and carrying only two to four torpedos.

What is needed are more large boats, so get Tirpitz to abolish Mackensen class and SMS Württemberg and Sachsen and shift to building U-Boats instead.
 
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Sub Wars !
The Prelude


The idea is that a result of German victory in Unrestricted Submarine Warfare in the Great War, the powers turn their attention to the building of large submarine fleets in the 1920s. Not just the fleets are large, but also the submarines themselves, as a new kind of naval race engulfs the nations

Yes, I know people don't agree with it, but THIS aapect that you are reading NOW is the one I wanted to devote my energies to; the first was just a how to get there thread.

After a Winter of Discontent 1915-1916, Britain is forced to sue for peace. One imagines that Asquith's coalition government quits, and that a new coalition under MacDonald reforms. Germany is in no position to be doctrinaire about things - yes, 1915 has been largely a victorious year, but it has been expensive, and many of the victories have been in defeating offensives against them. They are in no clear way any closer to winning the war, and the United States is hurriedly scrabbling together a meaningful force to send to France, to augment Theodore Roosevelt's 15000-strong volunteer force.

But Germany's apprehension can easily be turned on its head by all of the Allied & Associated Powers. Worst of all is Serbia who has virtually ceased to exist - its country has been conquered, its army, court, government and many of its people dead or fled. A few starving formations have already been deployed to Salonika, the majority are in desperate straits on Corfu. Russia can hardly look on things in a rosy light - its made gains and advances on the Caucasus front, but its campaigns in the West have ended in unmitigated disaster. Poland has been lost and Warsaw fallen, counter-attacks have been ghastly failures, and since the Tsar saw fit to appoint himself directly commander-in-chief in high Summer, his personal popularity has plummeted, whilst the government, abandoned in Petrograd by their Autocrat, has fallen under the sway of the empress and Rasputin.

France remains hopeful, however. US forces would plug the gap left by the British, the army is continuing to build up and replace even horrendous losses, and the generals have great plans for the coming year. Italy also remains optimistic - all of its Isonzo campaigns to date may have achieved little, but they have made more gains than losses in territory, and though the loss in manpower is higher on the Italian side, than on the Austrian, it is still heavy on the latter.

Thus, after starvation, riots, strikes and civil strife leads Britain to sue for terms, the rest of the Allies continue to try to fight on. It doesn't work

US troopships are convoyed across the N Atlantic by the US battlefleet as Washington realises that all of Germany's u-boats are now free to face the Americans. Meanwhile, in early Spring 1916 civil war breaks out in Ireland, crippling Britain's will, and making it certain that they will not resume the war if the Armistice does not become permanent.

Roosevelt and Joffre launch a massive offensive on the Western Front, but it collapses within the week, and German counter-attacks over-run many outer Allied trenches. Meanwhile, US relations with Mexico have plumetted, and General Pershing is forced to focus much of the US armed forces there. General Wood leads the newest units to Europe, and provokes a major internal crisis in US affairs by demanding the senior role from the established Roosevelt

Freed of having to fight the British and Indians in Mesopotamia, the Ottoman Empire diverts forces towards the Caucasus and the new Russian offensive is blunted and turned back upon itself. At the same time, new Russian offensives in the West collapse almost completely and lead to a German-Austrian advance

Food supplies and raw materials are now reaching Germany in greater quantities, though Britain and the dominions refuse to participate, and the US attempts to impose a blockade of its own.

Mutinies begin to affect various units of the French army as the relentless call for new offensives, and the chaos amongst its Allies, lead many troops to wonder what they are fighting for.

British and German representatives meet at The Hague. Germany's demands are simple - restitution of all property seized and sequestrated, immediate release of all POWs, British and dominion evacuation of all colonies occupied, and an immediate resumption of trade. MacDonald's position is weak, but he has to hold out on the dominions. Canada and Australia have already agreed to the Armistice in withdrawing their forces from combat, but neither Australia, New Zealand or South Africa will retrocede the colonies they have occupied. They have told MacDonald that they will remain in the war as long as necessary to achieve these aims, even if this continuance of war is effectively a meaningless state of affairs

MacDonald is able to offer immediate evacuation of Kamerun, Togoland and Tanganyika, but makes clear that the dominion objections over the rest are not within his power to do anything about. German negotiators are caught in a trap - on the one hand they desperately need the Armistice to turn into a final treaty in order to completely pull the rug out from under the feet of the Allies, but on the other they can't justify to the Reichstag abandoning the colonies. As a compromise they offer 'compensation' for the effort to seize them, effectively offering to buy them back. With the terms leaked, and with many people weary of the war, Australia and New Zealand agree but name a seemingly high figure. This is accepted by Berlin, and Britain, Canada, Australia, New Zealand and all Crown Colonies sign the final treaty. South Africa remains in a state of war, demanding SW Afrika by right of conquest

News of the peace treaty comes as a hammer blow to the Allies. Roosevelt has already been ailing from nervous stress after his battles with his one-time friend Long over command and representation, and learning of the Treaty of the The Hague pushes him into a terminal decline. This blow to US morale is coupled with the spreading of the mutinies amongst the French army, and the outbreak of strikes, riots and civil strife in France itself.

In Petrograd, a cabal of young nobles and royals effectively stages a palace coup, murdering Rasputin, and relegating the empress to Tsarskoe Selo. Tsar Nicholas II attempting to return to the capital from STAVKA is way-laid by a group of senior Grand Dukes who attempt to convince him to save the dynasty and the monarchy. Meanwhile, Petrograd is bubbling uneasily, with men and women taking to the streets, and the news from Britain and France leadnig to hundreds of thousands calling for peace. Prince Lvov is installed as Acting Prime Minister after guards, loyal to the Grand Dukes, take the ineffective and hated incumbent into custody.

The Tsar is all for executing the conspirators, reinstating his man as Prime Minister, and calling the guard out on the demonstrators. The Grand Dukes, backed by the commanders of the military trains, insist that such a course is suicidal and that for his own good they will not allow the Tsar's train to return to the capital.

Falkenhayn orders a targeted attack in the West, breaking through some of the most depleted and demoralised French forces before reinforcements, and General Wood's taking of direct command with the American contingent plug the gap. Most mutineers so far pledge to defend the line, but no longer to attack, but the collapse is indicative of how much they may be unable to do this in current circumstances.

Fighting has now broken out on the streets of Paris, with the government withdrawing to Bordeaux in order to be able to continue to operate. Votes of no confidence bring down the administration, but the president is unable to find anyone able to weld together enough of a coalition in order to govern

In the East, Mackensen is unleashed upon the Russians, and the line collapses. German and Austrian forces thrust East in several areas, whilst it is all the Russians can do to regroup and withdraw without being cut off. Tens of thousands are not so lucky, and POW camps begin to rapidly fall up. German forces besiege Riga, whilst in the South only swift action prevents a surprise German thrust from breaking out towards Kiev.

As Summer 1916 begins, President Wilson is faced with the unpalatable truth - the war in Europe is lost, and the US will gain nothing from continuing to pour its money and manpower into it. His hopes for re-election are virtually nil, and his only consolation is that he has outlived Roosevelt. All military resources are diverted to Pershing to help crush resistance in N Mexico, whilst the US Ambassador to France informs President Poincare that Washington is of the opinion that the Allies should immediately press for an Armistice, before things get any worse

In Petrograd, worker unrest has led to the formation of emergency committees who exist side by side with the guard units and Lvov's struggling administration. Nicholas, eventually worn down by the Grand Dukes issues a decree, formalising events in Petrograd and announcing his abdication in favour of the Tsesarevitch, with his brother Michael as Regent. There is much rejoicing along the front when the latter is made public, and Michael hurries to Petrograd to take up his responsibilities

Poincare and Wilson issue a joint statement, requesting an Armistice off the German Empire. It is agreed to within 24 hours, and fighting ceases along the Western front.

In the East, King Constantine's royalist government declares for the Central Powers, and sends loyalist forces towards Salonika. This threat leads the Allied commanders there to browbeat the Serbs into agreeing the Armistice, and agreeing an immediate withdrawal from the enclave.

Renewed Russian spirit halts a German drive towards Riga, but Michael's first act upon taking the oath as Regent is to direct Prince Lvov to request an Armistice on all fronts from the Central Powers. This is in place within 48 hours

Rome is in chaos, with the front holding (*see Note) but Italy's allies deserting her en masse. Opposition assembly members force through a vote of no confidence, and Giolitti is reappointed Prime Minister. He immediately orders a ceasefire across the Northern front, and negotiates an Armistice with Berlin and Vienna.

The end to the war is viewed by many as a victory in itself. A general European Congress is convened at The Hague, where the experience of holding the Anglo-German talks has given the Dutch government confidence in their abilities.

In Japan, the end of the war in Europe comes as something of a puzzle. It has clearly been on the cards for some months, so is not a shock, but at the same time what to do about it confounds many. The empire has mainly dedicated its energies to subjugating China in the absence of any meaningful US opposition, and Yuan's declaration of himself as Emperor of a new dynasty has been supported by, in fact abetted, by the Japanese.

The government in Tokyo has no intention of giving up anywhere it considers vital for its hold on China - both Port Arthur (where they took over the Russian lease at the end of the R-J War) and Tsingtao (which they took by conquest in 1914) qualify as this. Berlin uses Sweden as an intermediary, and the Swedish embassy passes on proposals from the German government. Now that most of the colonies have already been returned, and that the end of the war equates to a de facto victory in Europe, Germany can afford to be more generous, and accept some losses. Berlin proposes that Tokyo offer modest compensation for Tsingtao and remain in possession of it, but retrocede the N Pacific island groups. Tokyo requests to hold onto Yap and Truk as bases, and a compromise is reached where they will return to German civil administration, but where Japan can build and operate their own bases. Berlin also asures itself that Tokyo has no intention of renewing the alliance with Britain when it lapses - as additional confirmation, Germany will accept Japan's position in China for assurances on this point

Best Regards
Grey Wolf

*Note - Austria does not launch the Trentino Offensive against Italy in May because its armies are surging forward in the East, and even Conrad is not mad enough to try a second major offensive at the same time.
 
The Congress of The Hague opens against a background of civil strife in France, Russia and Great Britain, of a new pro-German government in Rome, and Greek accession to the Central Powers. Britain only has an Observer role, though South Africa, as a continuing belligerent, has full status, an anomaly that many take to mean that the Union intends to declare its independence from London as soon as formalities are over

Its probably worth noting who IS here

- German delegation
- Austro-Hungarian delegation
- Bulgarian delegation
- Ottoman delegation
- Greek (royalist) delegation

- French delegation
- Russian delegation
- British Observer
- US delegation
- Italian delegation
- South African delegation
- Belgian delegation
- Serbian delegation
- Montenegrin delegation

- Polish contingent
- Lithuanian contingent
- Albanian contingent
- Senussi contingent
- Japanese Observer

- - -

GENERAL TREATY OF THE HAGUE

-1- The stipulations of the Anglo-German Treaty of The Hague are agreed and ratified by all delegations

-2- All German, Austrian, Bulgarian, Ottoman and Greek property and assets which have been seized or sequestrated by Allied governments, military or agencies are to be returned to their rightful owners immediately. Compensation will be paid at market value for any liquidated assets unable to be returned.

-3- All German POWs are to be released without delay and allowed to return home

-4- Belgium, Serbia and Montenegro are to be evacuated and reconstituted subject to the following :-

-a- King Albert of Belgium will abdicate in favour of his heir, King Leopold III; as he is only 15, his aunt and uncle, Princess Josephine of Belgium and Prince Karl Anton of Rumania will act as Regents until his 18th birthday
-b- Prince George Obrenovic will be recognised as King of Serbia, and the Karageorgevic dynasty exiled from the country
-c- King Nicholas of Montenegro will abdicate in favour of his second son, Prince Mirko who will assume the kingship

-d- German forces will occupy the Belgian frontier forts for a period of 15 years
-e- German u-boat bases at Ostende, Zeebrugge and Nieuport will remain, under Belgian civil authority, but German military control
-f- Serbia will cede Macedonia to Bulgaria

-5- All Allied POWs held by the Central Powers will be repatriated in stages, with Allied governments contributing 50% of the transportation costs

-6- The Kingdom of Poland shall be reconstituted, consisting of (Russian) Congress Poland, and (Austrian) Galicia-Krakow-Bukovina, to be ruled as a parliamentary monarchy under the kingship of Archduke Karl Stefan of the Habsburg Teschen line

-7- The kingdom of Lithuania shall be reconstituted as a parliamentary monarchy under the kingship of Prinz Joachim, youngest son of His Imperial Majesty, Kaiser Wilhelm II

-8- The province of Cyrenaica shall be constituted as a hereditary beyalik under the head of the Senussi Order, within the overall sovereignty of the Ottoman Empire. The Ottoman Empire reconfirms Italy in possession of the province of Tripoli

-9- The Kingdom of Albania shall be reconstituted under the kingship of King William of Wied, with her territory returned fully to her control, and with a German pacification force to restore order, and remain in the country for 5 years

-10- Italy shall cede the islands of the Dodecanese to the Kingdom of Greece

-11- Russia shall cede the regions of Kars and Batumi to the Ottoman Empire

-12- Khedive Abbas Hilmi shall be restored to rule in Egypt, which will remain under British control and Ottoman sovereignty

-13- Tunis will be reconstituted as an independent kingdom under the former bey, with both France and the Ottoman Empire enjoying equal rights as protectors and guarantors

-14- France will evacuate its garrisons from Morocco which will be restored to full sovereignty. This will be jointly guaranteed by Germany, France and Spain. Spanish possessions in the North are not affected by this treaty article

-15- The French frontier defences centred on Verdun will be destroyed and not rebuilt, either at that location or at a substitute location that fulfills the same purpose.

-16- The Franco-Russian alliance shall be dissolved and not reconstituted without anulment of this article at a subsequent General Congress, to be held not less than 5 years hence

- - -

I don't think this is unreasonable - the Central Powers have won by default, but their ability to push it is in doubt, since their own populations are also sick of war.

With regard to Serbia and Montenegro, the CP have opted not for annihilation but for control. Mirko was in Vienna during the war, whilst George Obrenovic is a bastard with little real claim, and will rely on his CP allies for maintenance of his position

In OTL it took a fair degree of looking, discussing and negotiating for Wilhelm, 2nd Duke of Urach to be decided upon as king of Lithuania. Throughout the war there were rumours that the Kaiser was looking for a throne for his youngest son. Here, I have simply conflated the two - nobody has yet been considered, Wilhelm II wants something for Joachim, and Berlin wants Lithuania to be a German client.

I think that the US will sign, but that ratification will have to wait until after the election, and that the incoming Charles E Hughes administration may not ratify it.

Germany's gains over France are more global than of direct impact on the frontier.

Every one of the CPs gains directly
- Germany in the French controls, the end of the Franco-Russian alliance, in her protectorship of Morocco and client states in Lithuania, Albania and (with Austria) Poland
- Austria in her client states in Serbia, Montenegro and (with Germany) Poland
- Bulgaria by annexing Serbian Macedonia
- The Ottoman Empire by annexing Kars and Batumi from Russia, seeing the anti-British Khedive reinstated in Egypt, the Senussi gain Cyrenaica, and with joint equal status as guarantors of Tunis
- Greece by receiving the Dodecanese from Italy


Best Regards
Grey Wolf
 
By the Spring of 1917

The Irish Civil War continues to rage

In Russia, Regent Michael has managed to secure his position, with ex-Tsar Nicholas II and empress Alexandra confined to Tsarskoe Selo. The Tsar, Alexei, is moved to live in the capital for half the time, whilst the Grand Duchesses, daughters of the ex-Tsar, can come and go at will, with escorts

Prince Lvov has managed to effect a synthesis between the Duma, the Zvestoe and the workers' committees. The end of the war has brought welcome relief in terms of easy access to supplies, but the mass of returning troops and POWs coupled with the collapse of French investment in the country has caused a severe economic crisis.

Tensions rise between Poland and Lithuania over their mutual border, but Falkenhayn orders Bavarian army units under Prince Leopold to occupy the disputed borderland and refers it to a neutral tribunal. Joachim, King of Lithuania and impetuous younger son of the Kaiser, complains voiciferously to his father, but Berlin (here a euphenism for the Chancellor's government with Imperial assent) reminds him of his responsibilities. The neutral tribunal defuses the crisis, but Joachim seethes at the slight he has suffered

Giolitti sees passage of ratification through the Italian assembly, but the blows to Italian prestige cannot be hidden, and by early 1917 he is out. Elections prove a riotous and tumultuous affair, and in the chaos ensuing Gabriele D'Annunzio seizes power with the connivance of military and court factions. The king approves the new "Emergency Government" but in the immediate term D'Annunzio can do no more than condemn a peace that his predecessor has already ratified. Longer-term, he reconstitutes Italy's advisory force to Albania, and opens economic negotiations with the Kingdom of Tunis

In Washington, President Charles E Hughes refuses to allow the Treaty of The Hague to proceed to ratification, specifically objecting to Article 2 which would undermine patents seized by American companies during the war. Instead, he sets up a series of legal committees to which the Central Powers can submit individual claims.

This goes down very badly in Berlin, but since the onus is not upon government but upon the plaintive, many commercial ventures, including Balin (sp ?) and his Hamburg-Amerika Line, initiate individual claims.

Bethmann Hollweg has remained as German Chancellor throughout the war and the peace process, but new elections in Spring 1917 greatly increase the SPD representation in the Reichstag. Depressed at the prospect of trying to create a workable parliamentary coalition in these circumstances, he resigns, and after some indecision Wilhelm II appoints former Chancellor Bernhard Von Bulow as an interim Chancellor whilst certain reform measures, not least to the Prussian constitution, are carried out

In Britain, MacDonald's government has through a resumption of trade, and some financial wizardry on the part of Lloyd George (who joined the coalition during The Hague Congress) managed to stave off bankruptcy and restore some order to industrial relations, and some stability to prices. Ireland is still a nightmare with no end in sight, but the mainland is finally settling down

Best Regards
Grey Wolf
 
Political and Naval Developments from 1917

Von Bulow proves to be a surprisingly successful Interim Chancellor of Germany, serving until the end of 1918 and overseeing reform of the Prussian constitution, as well as creating an Oversight Committee to log and follow claims against the United States, and compile a list of failures or those areas where claims drawn up during The Hague talks have not been entered. He is able to get a Navy Bill passed, thanks to its heavy weighting towards developing the submarine arm, which has the advantage of being both victorious and cheaper by far than the battleship alternative. During this period, also, the colonies are put on a firmer autonomous footing with their own ensigns, governments and military establishments, tho how far this means anything in reality differs greatly between them

In the face of Internationalist Support for Irish rebels, MacDonald's coalition collapses after a vote of no confidence. Indications of an unholy trinity of German, Spanish and American support for the rebels plays across the newspapers and the newly-created National Radio Service. Its obvious to anyone who looks into it that this is not a matter of governmental support, but of individual groups drumming up monies and arms and arranging shipment, but the anti-MacDonald press makes great play of it as an international conspiracy, playing the craven pacifist for a fool

The elections of early 1918 are disastrously inconclusive. Splinter parties on all sides rack up surprising numbers of seats, whilst the main parties are as far apart as ever, each riven by factionalism, with Labour member against Labour member, Liberal against Liberal, Tory against Tory. Faced with this confusion, King George V asks MacDonald to try to form a new government, but he cannot. Next the king turns to David Lloyd George, the rebel Liberal leader, a former member of MacDonald's coalition and a man with the reputation of having friends in surprising places

Germany and Japan signed a formal treaty in early 1917, once Tokyo was sure that The Hague treaty would stand. The N Pacific islands return to German control, whilst German statements of support for Japan in China inflame American opinion, but to no useful end, coming as they do at the same time as President Hughes' refusal to ratify the treaty and his undermining of Article 2

- - -

As the 1920s approach, Britain under Prime Minister Lloyd George approves a new navy bill which follows the German lead of spending money primarily on submarines. To both Labour and Liberal this is very popular as it seems to avoid the ruinous expense of another battleship race. Churchill, in disgust, quits the rump Asquithian Liberal party and joins the new Progressive Party, formed of a fusion of traditionalist Liberals and reform-minded Tories.

Italy also approves a new Navy Bill which focuses primarily upon submarines. Its battleship programme is impossible to complete, anyway, the Francisco Caracciolo class abandoned on the slips and scheduled for breaking up. Under the waves offers real hope

Kaiser Franz Josef dies in late 1916, shortly before Christmas, having seen the signing and ratification of The Hague treaty. He is succeeded by Kaiser Karl whose first task is to renegotiate the Ausgleich with Hungary in 1917. Victory as it is in the war has strengthened the monarchy, and Hungary can clearly see how it gains by remaining loyal. Thus, 1917 mainly sees a strengthening and formalisation of the 1907 agreement. The only change is a promise from the Kaiser to appoint more Hungarians to Imperial office, and to work to separate the Austrian and Imperial functions in War, Foreign Affairs and Industry.

Czech and South Slav aims are sacrificed in this agreement, but neither of them have the power to challenge it.

After the ratification of the Ausgleich, the Kaiser is able to get a new navy law, two of the Ersatz Monarch class battleships will be slowly built to a new plan (one is named Hunyadi for Hungarian interests) but the major aspect of the plan is for the development of a submarine force to rival that of other great powers

In the United States, President Hughes sees the way that other nations are reorganising their naval priorities and does likewise. Submarines become a large part of the new US navy bills


Best Regards
Grey Wolf
 
To The 1920s

Submarines of course are not the be-all and end-all of naval construction in this period, but they ARE where the powers devote their energies and substantial portions of their budget

Battleships do get built, but only a few over a period, and relatively slowly. I would imagine that Wilhelmine Germany has recreated the Sachsen and Wurttemberg as Improved Badens, but they won't see service till around 1920.

In the meanwhile, after 3-4 years of peace, Germany has by 1920 developed larger, better-armed u-boats of much greater endurance. At the same time, a diversification in types occurs, with new experimental types - some from the drawing board, some from designs in progress now extended, and some from the mind of crazy admirals, or the Kaiser himself

Thus you would get large mine-laying submarines, submarines with primary mercantile functions, and whopping great submarine cruisers, some of them with a single gun of small battleship size.

This of course would kick off a submarine race, with other powers not being sure of the benefits but not wanting to lag behind the country who won the Great War by using u-boats to break Britain

- - -

Bases would also be important. By the treaty of The Hague, Germany has secured those in Belgium which it operated from during the Great War. It would, also, look to use and establish bases abroad

In part, this would be in the territory of its allies - for example, Pola and Cattaro in the Adriatic, presumably also Valona in Albania, as well as Bulgarian and Ottoman ports.

In other parts, it would be in the colonies, and one could see Germany develop a base in Kamerun, another in Tanganyika, plus others in the Bismarcks, Samoa and in the N Pacific islands

This kind of expenditure in tune with a slow and reduced battleship programme would probably look to ANY Reichstag like good house-keeping.

- - -

For Germany, after Bulow I am envisaging some sort of neutralist Chancellor, with a high birth but able to bring on board the SPD. Prince Max of Baden might well be the man, even though he is a cliche. He was a cliche chosen for a reason, after all. Thus perhaps until 1921, Germany sees a neutralist catch-all government under Prince Max

One can also approach this from the position of the SPD. They would be well aware that the war has brought great dislocation to all areas of German life, and that a settling-down period is necessary. Whilst Von Bulow handled the immediate post-war crises, the SPD leadership could also see partnership in government with someone else's name on the ticket as being the ideal for the second phase, reconstruction. They get to press their policies, with Prince Max taking the flak, and as a quid pro quo, the military get their programmes for national defence, and the Kaiser remains generally happy (as much as he is able)

Germany would be involved in :-

- Belgian forts until 1931
- Poland
- Lithuania
- Albania until 1921
- Morocco

And the navy...

- - -

Lloyd George as British Prime Minister is responsible for the war with Ireland, but it is a costly responsibility. His being chosen for office was partly because he was friends with Bonar Law, and cordial with Churchill, which in this timeline would bring the traditional Tories and the Progressives into his orbit, but Ireland is not a rational item on any agenda

He soon loses Tory trust, whilst the Progressives begin to see themselves as the proper Opposition and begin to oppose him on that basis. He ends up having to ally with Labour fragments and Liberal factions, and is voted down when he suggests negotiating with the rebels

The vote of confidence goes against him and new elections are called. But the British people are fed up with the Irish war. They give Lloyd George's coalition a healthy majority, and despite George V's complaints, his government negotiates for an all-Ireland dominion, to include Ulster.

Whilst these negotiations are ongoing there begins a Unionist bombing campaign upon the mainland. On his way to the House of Commons to vote on the deadlock, Lloyd George is blown to bits by a Unionist bomb

In shock, Secretary of War Henderson imposes martial law and Irish men are rounded up throughout the capital. The coalition executive elects him leader, and George V in shock approves Arthur Henderson as Prime Minister. He immediately approaches maverick politicians of all parties about joining the government, and Winston Churchill agrees, suggesting that they use Dominion forces to secure a ceasefire in Ireland

ANZAC forces enthusiastically re-enlist for this purpose, escaping the sterile economic situation back home, and soon Henderson can tell the king that he can keep the various factions apart. This change in the role of the British government is recognised by the Nationalists who order all attacks upon British forces to cease, but the Unionist campaign is ordered to intensify

- - -

France has taken longer than other powers to recover from the Great War, the internal dissention and the civil strife causing incessant problems which undermined successive governments.

By the early 1920s a leftist moderate government is in power, and looks askance at the naval build-ups occurring on all sides. France enters the submarine race with a crash-building programme

- - -

In the USA, President Charles E Hughes gets re-elected relatively easily in 1920

In his second term he is determined to bring an end to Central Powers claims under Article 2, and institutes the Twelve Month Rule - if by March 1922 a claim has not begun to be processed the USA will consider it invalid. This of course causes a rash of new claims, whilst the complex legal arguments against US theft of various patents enters confusing legal ground. The plaintives, powerful German companies, compose a case which the Berlin committee submits a day before the deadline. If the US rejects it, it is making a political statement that it would never have considered it. President Hughes makes no comment and lets events take their natural course

Meanwhile, in the naval buildnig arena, the USA commissions the first of its submarine super-cruisers


Best Regards
Grey Wolf
 
by the mid 1920s

Just to standardise things...

Britain

Prime Minister Henderson, with Churchill increasingly Number Two in his government, negotiates peace for Ireland, the establishment of the self-governing Dominion of Ireland, with the same local powers as Canada

Unionist bombing camaigns continue, and Churchill on a couple of occasions narrowly escapes death. Law lords and parliamentary whips are often less lucky

USA

1924 sees President Hughes stand down, and his Vice President face off against both a Democratic and a Progressive opponent, in the fashion for political fragmentation that is everywhere noticeable. His VP wins the popular vote, but the electoral college gives the presidency to the Progressive, Robert La Follette

Germany

Prince Max of Baden is followed by the first SPD Chancellor, Philip Scheidemann, who is adept at calming his constituency and continuing existing policies with as little trouble as possible. Believing in the possibility of synthesis between Socialist and Nationalist policies, he accepted by both sections of the Reichstag, and works with Wilhelm II in a surprisingly successful partnership

Social reform measures get passed, whilst German interests overseas are kept up, and German submarine building building plans are immune to naval cutbacks which impact the surface fleet. No one can criticise and curtail submarines which won the war, and as they are cheaper (tho the Kaiser Dreams are not THAT much cheaper) they are the ultimate fallback

- - -

Best Regards
Grey Wolf
 
Thanks for an interesting and well-written TL. A greater effort on submarines seems entirely plausible, just like after the Second World War the Soviet Union concentrated on having the largest army in the world and USA the best strategic bomber force in the world. In both cases the respective arms were built well beyond over any reasonable needs.

On technical level, here's some suggestions for additional development:

ASW submarines:


Historically RN built R-class submarines ("SSK's") for ASW warfare. These were designed for fast underwater speed and a significant torpedo salvo (six tubes forward) to enable submerged interceptions. They had the best passive sonar suite of the period for intercepts.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/British_R_class_submarine

The subs themselves had significant teething problems. With precedent of succesful German sub campaign I think this line of development will be continued, especially in case of RN. Next generation SSK might have also ASDIC for fire control and a radio buoy to co-operate actions with other subs.

For more exotic stuff, here's some concepts:

Escort submarines


Historically at least Finnish Navy used submarines as escorts for convoys during WW II, even fitting them with depth charges. The operational idea was to use them as distant support craft, utilizing their passive sonar suite, low visibility and silent surface running to ambush Soviet subs which came to surface during night to recharge their batteries using noisy diesels. (This was during mid October-early Nov when sunrise is about 7 AM and sunset 17 PM).

Within three weeks the three subs employed sank three Soviet submarines.

The idea is bound to surface elsewhere, so how about specified escort submarines? The submarine should have following qualities with 20's and 30's technology.

- Enough surface speed for reaction abilities, around 17-20kts. This will
provide enough speed to race forward of the convoy for setting up
ambushes, enough speed to prosecute contacts and enough speed to
catch up the convoy after investigation of a contact.
- High enough masts for RDF gear
- Large forward salvo for attacking hostile submarines. Rear salvo is not
important.
- Ability for a short but high-speed undewater sprint for:
a) Interception of enemy cruiser sub pounding the convoy with large gun
b) Enabling interception of contact after it's prosecuted by surface forces
(ie. when the sub is put down by surface contacts an escort sub can
stay in an ambush position to intercept the enemy sub surfacing.)
- Medium caliber guns to have a quick effect on sub within close range,
perhaps two 4-5" guns
- Small number of depth charges to make a single attack when necessary.
The fuze settings should be operable from inside the submarine.
- Ability to cross the Atlantic without refuelling
- Simple and reliable communication system with other submarines and
surface forces, in essence a radio buoy, smoke signals, rockets and small
detonation charges

Something like historical USN "V-boats" might provide enough size for these demands. An escort sub might be a variant of a fleet sub.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/USS_Barracuda_(SS-163)
 
Some very good points there - these would be the mainstay submarines which would prove most useful in actual combat. They would also make up the bulk of the fleets

But what would get the most attention are the specialist submarines, the larger cruisers and aircraft-carrying vessels, the Kaiser Dreams etc. I do realise that in WW2 such vessels that still survived proved of little actual use, and more vulnerable due to their relative lack of manoevrability. But I would think that national pride and the curse of invention would run away with them during the 1920s, into the 1930s

Best Regards
Grey Wolf
 
Grey Wolf

I could see the possible German U-boat victory but I don't see the mass obcession with subs post-war. They would get a lot more attention and the expensive and apparently irrelevent battleships will be unpopular. However for any power that relies heavily on trade, most especially Britain the plan will be to find answers to subs not simply to build large numbers themselves. Despite the potential of the R class subs are not suitable for trade protection of themselves. [If nothing else they can't really do anything about the increasing potential of air power]. As such I could see a huge amount of resources going into various anti-submarine options. Some will probably be irrational but expect a lot of work on convoys and light naval vessels with anti-sun weaponary].

Steve
 
Hmm many interesting ideas and the general thrust is pretty good though your fascination with large fleets of large submarines fails to distinguish between sea control and sea denial. Submarines can really only perform the latter function. There are other functional assymetries with the old standard of seapower the battleship such as submarines are an ambush weapon and do not fight effectively in concentration.

You seem obsessed with the 'M' class.

Getting back to the war, so MacDonald was PM for a while? Exactly how long?

I have long held that Germans could be moderate in negotations but in your TL they are very moderate. I would think the annexation of Luxembourg, Briey and Longwy would be insisted on.

With moderate terms the right wing political parties in Germany would be aghast and form into a new right wing party that believes the peace treaty was a "stab in the back". This would cause postwar difficulty.

Why do the Germans want Albert deposed? In this sort of situation I think he would try to make a seperate peace before the Hague even opened. In OTL he did pursue secret negotations for a while.

The German negotiating position towards South Africa should be to ween them away from Britain as a potential future ally in Afrika.

No attempt by the Lithuanians to preempt a Hohenzollern monarch with Mindaugus?
 
Hmm many interesting ideas and the general thrust is pretty good though your fascination with large fleets of large submarines fails to distinguish between sea control and sea denial. Submarines can really only perform the latter function. There are other functional assymetries with the old standard of seapower the battleship such as submarines are an ambush weapon and do not fight effectively in concentration.

The issue is far more complicated than you portray, IMHO. As elements for sea control even 1920-1930's submarines have great potential as they can ambush enemy units trying to perform sea denial duties, they can lay mines stealthily and perform signals and visual intelligence. Before advent of reliable airplanes the fleet boats can also perform the cruiser role as reconnaissance elements of the battle fleet.
 
For each boat on station you will want one marching for relief, one returning to base after relief, and one (if not two) at base for repair and maintenance.
...
In 1917, there were 136 boats available, of which 105 were for front use. That means approx. one quarter for the u-boat-school.
...I forgot, there were 10 boats at Istanbul, additional to those at Pola and Cattaro.
Your proportions are right, but I think you're misreading the numbers: 136 boats gives you 31 in training, 35 on station, & 35 en route or in refit, which is what you'd expect. The Germans seem to place more emphasis on training than the USN, AFAIK; I doubt the USN %in training was so high (but that's just a guess).
 
The issue is far more complicated than you portray, IMHO. As elements for sea control even 1920-1930's submarines have great potential as they can ambush enemy units trying to perform sea denial duties, they can lay mines stealthily and perform signals and visual intelligence. Before advent of reliable airplanes the fleet boats can also perform the cruiser role as reconnaissance elements of the battle fleet.

Jukra

That's still sea denial your talking about. They can seek to stop other powers using the seas but their a lot less effective at protecting their own nations traffic. They can be used for scouting but surface vessels are overall much better as they can move a lot faster and see further. [A low slow sub is not a good platform for seeing very far, or fighting well if you do see something]. Furthermore, other than night surface attacks, which can be countered by properly organised forces, submarines have to submerge to fight other naval units, or even survive. Once they do their ability to see drops even further, their speed and range plummet and their limited to torpedoes as weapons. Those are effective but relatively few can be carried so while not one shot wonders they have little sustained combat ability.

As we know from OTL subs could be largely defeated by the simple implementation of convoys. More and specialised escorts, the longer ranges a/c under development, which could be prioritised in such a circumstance, and weapons for attacking subs could also help.

Steve
 
Its OK, I've realised my ideas are flawed

I probably need to write science fiction, I don't really think I am fit for alternate history at the moment

Thanks to all contributors for their input. Sorry I'm not really up to it

Steve, a historical note, not an argument on my part, just a note - the towed kite-like apparatus from u-boats provided oversight, as of course did aircraft carried by sbmarines. The sub itself may not see all that much of the surroundnig sea, but its appendages can.

Best Regards
Grey Wolf
 
Germany exempts passenger vessels from attack and the U-boat commanders obey orders so Bryan remains secretary of state. The Barralong incident goes ahead and the US makes a few mild protests
 
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