Germany used Original Schliefen Plan

[Gurroruo]

So after reading the Sea Mammal vs Schliefen Plan I wondered how might using the original Schliefen Plan have affected WWI. I know it would have failed. But would the French be able to counter attack and end the war quickly? How would a Germany tragedy on the Western Front affect the rest of the war's front. And what would a shorter war with an Entente victory mean?

 

[BooNZ]

So after reading the Sea Mammal vs Schliefen Plan I wondered how might using the original Schliefen Plan have affected WWI. I know it would have failed. But would the French be able to counter attack and end the war quickly? How would a Germany tragedy on the Western Front affect the rest of the war's front. And what would a shorter war with an Entente victory mean?

In the interests of giving this a bump, I'll say that if the original Schliefen Plan was executed when it was conceived (circa 1905-1906) it had a reasonable chance of success.

The following would help:
- Russia had been humbled by Japan and was dealing with internal issues - it would not be a threat to Germany for a few years.
- The British were not so close with the Entente and its army was ill equipped to reach or participate in a continental war - arrive late if at all.
- Italy was closer to the CP powers and Serbia was not yet a continental power - not considerations.
- The French and German armies were proportionately smaller, meaning less strain from a logistical perspective.
- The use of Dutch territory (the appendix) would provide an additional rail line which would assist logistics significantly.
- Technology was such that aerial recognisance and machine guns would not be as prevalent - this would favour the attackers.

On the other hand:
- Germany had done less logistical planning
- Germany only had a handful of super heavy artillery pieces and therefore would have to mask many Belgium fortresses
- If the war lasts longer than a few months the Dutch might be compelled to actually attack the Germans in some capacity.
- If the war lasts longer than 12 months the British navy is likely to starve Germany of nitrates.

On balance, I would not be betting on (French) blue.

 

[Riain]

The original "plan" called for 300, 000 troops to be provided but from 1906 and 1914 the German army only expanded by 135, 000 as a political trade off to both expand the army but not bring in too many middle class officers, with their fancy ideas. So unless another 165, 000 troops were going to be provided the original plan cannot stand in the circumstances.

 

[BooNZ]

The original "plan" called for 300, 000 troops to be provided but from 1906 and 1914 the German army only expanded by 135, 000 as a political trade off to both expand the army but not bring in too many middle class officers, with their fancy ideas. So unless another 165, 000 troops were going to be provided the original plan cannot stand in the circumstances.

I assumed the POD was to run the plan with whatever was available, requiring a level of improve - otherwise it would be ASB material.

 

[Riain]

I think that given OTL resources and a commitment to keep the right wing strong the Germans could still not have taken Paris but would have "won" the race to the sea. I believe that holding the French channel coast would go a long way to being a war winning position for Germany.

 

[Saphroneth]

When did the Germans get an equivalent of the canon de 75mm? I seem to recall it took "at least" ten years for other guns to match the soixante-quinze for rapid fire field gun work.

So the Germans have a serious problem in open field engagements.

 

[Riain]

The Germans had the 77mm gun which was a serviceable piece, but each division had a regiment or something of 105mm howitzers which gave the Germans the firepower advantage.

 

[Gurroruo]

I'm not asking if the plan had been used in 1905 or 1906, but in 1914

 

[Saphroneth]

I'm asking if the plan had been used in 1905 or 1906, but in 1914

Ah, right - sorry, things got a bit sidetracked.

The basic problem the Germans have is that they need to get force for one wing from another. If you strengthen the right wheel over OTL you weaken the left one, and that means that there might be more success on the coast but less inland.

The question then becomes - once the dust settles, is Germany in a better overall position?

 

[Riain]

I'm asking if the plan had been used in 1905 or 1906, but in 1914

Then no, not a chance. In 1906 it wasn't a plan with troops assigned to railways, marching routes and objectives and all the things that staffs do. It was a strategic concept paper with a lot of hopeful assumptions about troops and the like, it would have to be turned into a plan using the forces at hand before being put into action.

 

[ObssesedNuker]

The original Schliefen Plan called for cramming a further two corps forward with absolutely no actual way to get them and their supplies forward. Schliefen basically had them teleport there in the papers, but the impossibility of the actual logistics of moving and supplying those two additional corps to the front eventually drove him to complete despair over the plans prospects. Of course, by that point he was already retired and could have only limited impact on the official plan or planning process.

 

[jahenders]

I'm not so sure. True, the original plan wasn't really "fleshed out." However, I'd argue that Germany was at least as strong relative to France in 1905 as in 1914. If you then have Germany stick with the divisions in the plan (not diverting some to the East) and the focus of the plan (keeping the wheel tight and other attacks only being feints), I think it has a good probability of success.

 

[ObssesedNuker]

IIf you then have Germany stick with the divisions in the plan (not diverting some to the East) and the focus of the plan (keeping the wheel tight and other attacks only being feints),

There is no road space for those other divisions and their supplies. They would just cause traffic jams that slow and exhaust the advance even more. Cramming more forces to the front without the logistical assets and infrastructure to support them is a fundamentally counter-productive move.

 

[raharris1973]

Speaking first on the 1906 diversion -

I have one more item to add to the anti-German side of the ledger-

On the other hand:
- Germany had done less logistical planning
- Germany only had a handful of super heavy artillery pieces and therefore would have to mask many Belgium fortresses
- If the war lasts longer than a few months the Dutch might be compelled to actually attack the Germans in some capacity.
- If the war lasts longer than 12 months the British navy is likely to starve Germany of nitrates.

- The French won't sacrifice excessive forces attempting to mount offensives beyond their capabilities.

---getting back to the OP, which I presume means that the Germans in *1914* deploy their actual forces in at least the same *proportions* as in the Schlieffen Plan (strong right wing, weaker left wing, pretty much no Russian wing) and advance through the southeast Netherlands.

In that case, I don't think the logistics are there to support a successful envelopment of Paris in the opening campaign. Greater forces in Belgium may assist in the later "race to the sea".

French forces may well make more substantial progress against the weaker German left-wing, regaining much of Alsace and Lorraine.

This has the net effect of lengthening the entire western front battle-line. That should ultimately be an advantage for the more numerous side.

It makes it more likely one side or the other is successfully flanked. Perhaps the French interrupt the rail lines at Metz and compound German logistical problems to an impossible level.

Or, with the longer battle-line and a political commitment to hold on to liberated Alsace-Lorrainer territory, in follow up battles in the autumn, the Germans may be able to push south in Champage, east of Paris, but west of the fortress line, and cut off the French right-wing. After defeat of the right-wing in detail, in follow-on campaigns the French do not have enough to hold back the Germans. It is probably 1915 or so by this point.

This is what Liddell Hart speculated would have happened. That the benefit of the Schlieffen Plan was the *weak* German left-wing yielding ground to the French, rather than a stronger right wing. Once overcommitted to the east, the Germans can cut them off, just as they were able to cut off the French of 1940 who were overcommitted to northwest Belgium.

The factor of the Dutch army however is a wildcard. If they do or even threaten mobile counter-attacks, that is a bad wrinkle for the Germans.

In the east, the Germans as in OTL should be able to stun the Russians and stop them in their tracks even without reinforcement of the west, as they did in OTL.


By the way, ever heard of Terence Zuber's argument that the conventional understanding of what the Schlieffen Plan actually was is incorrect?

http://www.amazon.com/Inventing-Schlieffen-Plan-Planning-1871-1914/dp/0198718055

http://www.historytoday.com/terence-zuber/schlieffen-plan-fantasy-or-catastrophe

 

[LordKalvert]

The Germans had the 77mm gun which was a serviceable piece, but each division had a regiment or something of 105mm howitzers which gave the Germans the firepower advantage.

Except that the French 75 had a much greater range (about 1000 meters) and higher rate of fire (about 2 1/2 times depending on conditions).

Germany doesn't really develop an artillery advantage until she drops out of Naval Race after the 2nd Moroccan Crises. German War stocks are much lower as well.

Germany probably still has a firepower advantage but its going to be much smaller than in 1914

 

[LordKalvert]

The real problem for the plan is the invasion of the Netherlands. The Dutch aren't going to put up with that anymore than the Belgians

The Dutch are a real force and field about 10% of the Germans That's a chunk given the other commitments of the Germans. Dealing with it would remove a sizable chunk of the right wing. The Dutch are also far in the rear of the right wing- any breakthrough is going to cause havoc in a hurry

Going through the Netherlands might also make Joffre realize the extent of the sweep that was being planned (just kidding) and shift his forces to the north. If he does so, the Germans aren't going to get mcuh

Even assuming that the Germans can sweep through Belgium and move into northern France, they are still going to run into the same logistical problems as in OTL but with a much weakened right (diverted to deal with the Dutch).

A successful French advance into Alsace-Lorraine might keep the southern armies from participating in the Marne equivalent but the French have plenty of reserve divisions and fortress troops to throw in the hole- the Germans are breaking through

If the French get around Metz the German iron ore fields are lost and the war is over

A good work on the Dutch army of the period

The Netherlands and World War I: Espionage, Diplomacy and Survival
By Hubert P. Van Tuyll

 

[BooNZ]

Except that the French 75 had a much greater range (about 1000 meters) and higher rate of fire (about 2 1/2 times depending on conditions).

Germany doesn't really develop an artillery advantage until she drops out of Naval Race after the 2nd Moroccan Crises. German War stocks are much lower as well.

Germany probably still has a firepower advantage but its going to be much smaller than in 1914

The French 75 was stunning, but the Germans were introducing an equivalent from 1904 (similar range and rate of fire) - the French light artillery was hugely superior in 1905, but negligible by 1914.

Germans maintained a proportionate and absolute numerical advantage in all artillery - at least from the early 1890s. In the category of light artillery this was negated by the French 75, which was without peer from its introduction in 1895 for about 10 years. The German advantage in heavy artillery was both qualitative (incl training) and quantitative.

The most obvious artillery development by 1914 by Germany was the super heavy artillery, which were previously more rare.

 

[BooNZ]

The real problem for the plan is the invasion of the Netherlands. The Dutch aren't going to put up with that anymore than the Belgians

The Dutch are a real force and field about 10% of the Germans That's a chunk given the other commitments of the Germans. Dealing with it would remove a sizable chunk of the right wing. The Dutch are also far in the rear of the right wing- any breakthrough is going to cause havoc in a hurry

Going through the Netherlands might also make Joffre realize the extent of the sweep that was being planned (just kidding) and shift his forces to the north. If he does so, the Germans aren't going to get mcuh

Even assuming that the Germans can sweep through Belgium and move into northern France, they are still going to run into the same logistical problems as in OTL but with a much weakened right (diverted to deal with the Dutch).

A successful French advance into Alsace-Lorraine might keep the southern armies from participating in the Marne equivalent but the French have plenty of reserve divisions and fortress troops to throw in the hole- the Germans are breaking through

If the French get around Metz the German iron ore fields are lost and the war is over

A good work on the Dutch army of the period

The Netherlands and World War I: Espionage, Diplomacy and Survival
By Hubert P. Van Tuyll

The original plan was to pass through the Maastricht appendix, which represented strategic depth of 5-20km. The best the Dutch could hope to do is a bit of sabotage before they are overrun. I am sure that the minute the Germans had secured the Rail lines with moderate strategic depth, an offer of truce would be on the table - agreeing to compensation and a complete with drawl from the occupied territory within six months (by which point the war would be lost or won).

That leaves the Dutch with the choice to launch an offensive against a temporarily distracted Germany, or secure its forces behind incredibly strong defensive positions and wait for the return of its territory. My money would be on the Dutch taking at least six months to 'organise' an offensive against the Germans.

The Dutch rail would improve logistics significantly and I think it would be an interesting debate if the action was in 1906 (with no Russia and a late UK), but in the OP's 1914, using an even more obsolete plan, the Germans a funked!