Germany/UK vs Russia/France

I'm not looking for World War here, though it might very well have theatres around the globe.

Possible PoDs?
Who would win?
Would any other countries join in, and if so, on what side?
Reason for war?

Edit: PoD for ~WW1 or ~WW2
 
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You want Russia and France to be stronger than they were in 1914 OTL (when Germany and Britain together could have wiped the floor with them pretty comprehensively). So, very quick sketch:

-Kaiser Wilhelm II falls into a pond as a young boy and develops acute hydrophobia. Expansion of the Kaiserliche Marine is small and conservative.

-Russia wins the Russo-Japanese war: not that hard to do. That, or possibly Bezobrazov and his pig-headed colonialists don't get the ear of the Tsar and Russia recognises Japanese primacy in Korea in exchange for recognition of Russia's own priveleges in Manchuria, which is easier still; but victory makes the Russians look even more menacing.

-So, we've got a Russia that at any rate appears stronger as there has been no lost was disastrous for its prestige, and no 1905 revolution. Russia continues to strengthen its presence in Manchuria, to the alarm of Britain.

-The Russian capitalists, as in OTL, start to obsess over the possibilities of the "Petersburg-Persia line".

Now, this is where I'd want to start cracking open actual reference works and looking at the intricacies of how the R-J war affected diplomacy, but in very broad strokes:

- Franco-German relations still sour.

- French military leaders still become increasingly confident in their own capabilities; defiant pro-Russians become foremost in the French government.

- Less warming of Anglo-French relations. The Entente, as it came about OTL, was in part a result of the R-J war. Britain and France, after Fashoda, had nothing left to scrap about, but changing the R-J war and then the diplomacy around Morocco can keep them at arm's length. No fleet agreements, certainly.

- A deviation from the usual here, but I think the scenario works best if the Ottomans are on the Franco-Russian side, which isn't so hard as it sounds. Russia was always keen on making the Ottomans a client-state, and the French bankers obviously held lots of Ottoman debt. A Russo-Ottoman alliance was actually something people were discussing anxiously just before Franz Ferdinand got himself shot, IIRC.

We have the Ottoman Revolution, the fate of Bosnia, *Illinden, everything we like, to play with here. I think it's possibly to create a scenario in which the Ottomans come to rely on Franco-Russian protection (no 1905 revolution, btw, butterflies the Tsar's relations with the Dashnaks, so if factors elsewhere bring them together, the Russians and Ottomans can be united by hostility to the Armenian national movement, too); and this, with no Tsushima, means Russia is a more credible threat to Britain on the seas.

Then just throw in German insecurities about growing Franco-Russian military power, British popular worries about the straits, and then have some stupid attempt to ovethrow the government in Tehran by one side or the other, and assasinate somebody important. Bang.

It must be remembered that in 1914, the French generals dismissed the military significance of the BEF - in other words, they genuinely counted on winning a war with Germany themselves. Our war, though, need not be in 1914, so the French might have a fighting chance of it.

I'll come back to these sketches in more detail after I've hit the library.
 
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loughery111

Banned
You want Russia and France to be stronger than they were in 1914 OTL (when Germany and Britain together could have wiped the floor with them pretty comprehensively). So, very quick sketch:

-Kaiser Wilhelm II falls into a bond as a young boy and develops acute hydrophobia. Expansion of the Kaiserliche Marine is small and conservative.

-Russia wins the Russo-Japanese war. Not that hard to do. That, or possibly Bezobrazov and his pig-headed colonialists don't get the ear of the Tsar and Russia recognises Japanese primacy in Korea in exchange for recognition of Russia's own priveleges in Manchuria, which is easier still; but victory makes the Russians look even more menacing.

-So, we've got a Russia that at any rate appears stronger as there has been no lost was disastrous for its prestige and no 1905 revolution, and Russia continues to strengthen its presence in Manchuria, to the alarm of Britain.

-The Russian capitalists, as in OTL, start to obsess over the possibilities of the "Petersburg-Persia line".

Now, this is where I'd want to start cracking open actual reference works and looking at the intricacies of how the R-J war affected diplomacy, but in very broad strokes:

- Franco-German relations still sour.

- French military leaders still become increasingly confident in their own capabilities; defiant pro-Russians become foremost in the French government.

- Less warming of Anglo-French relations. The Entente, as it came about OTL, was in part a result of the R-J war. Britain and France, after Fashoda, had nothing less to scrap about, but changing the R-J war and then the diplomacy around Morocco can keep them at arms length. No fleet agreements, certainly.

- A deviation from the usual here, but I think the scenario works best if the Ottomans are on the Franco-Russian side, which isn't so hard as it sounds. Russia was always keen on making the Ottomans a client-state, and the French bankers obviously held lots of Ottoman debt. A Russo-Ottoman alliance was actually something people were discussing anxiously just before Franz Ferdinand got himself shot, IIRC.

We have the Ottoman Revolution, the fate of Bosnia, *Illinden, everything we like, to play with here. I think it's possibly to create a scenario in which the Ottomans come to rely on Franco-Russian protection (no 1905 revolution, btw, butterflies the Tsar's relations with the Dashnaks, so if factors elsewhere bring them together, the Russians and Ottomans can be united by hostility to the Armenian national movement, too); and this, with no Tsushima, means Russia is a more credible threat to Britain.

Then just throw in German insecurities about growing Franco-Russian military power, British popular worries about the straits, and then have some stupid attempt to ovethrow the government in Tehran, and assasinate somebody. Bang.

It must be remembered that in 1914, the French generals dismissed the military significance of the BEF - in other words, they genuinely counted on winning a war with Germany. Our war, though, need not be in 1914, so the French might have a fighting chance of it.

I'll come back to these sketches in more detail after I've hit the library.

That's about as brilliantly thought out as anything I could do to create the alliances, but anytime up until 1950 or so, Germany will wipe the floor with France without a POD before 1871. Not only was France's industrial potential smaller than Germany's pretty much from the outset, but the gap was widening, not narrowing. That trend would have eventually slowed as France actually got an incentive to industrialize... but Germany probably would always have outmatched them by a large margin. Combine that with the UK, especially if they don't bankrupt themselves fighting a world war and can thus hang onto the empire or most of it (industrialize India, you blithering morons), and Russia and France are utterly screwed until Russia reaches OTL 1950's level of industrialization...
 
Given colonial possessions anything that is UK-Germany vs. France-Russia is going to go global. You can expect conflict in Central Asia and throughout Africa as well as in Europe.
 
Would any other countries join in, and if so, on what side?

Well, here is an estimate based around IBC`s scenario:

Alliance 1:
-Germany
-UK
-A-H
-Japan
-Greece*
-Bulgaria*
-other countries (Sweden, Portugal, USA...)*

Alliance 2:
-France
-Russia
-Ottoman Empire
-Serbia*
-Romania*

*optional

Italy is a wild card here, and could go either way, but I think they would end up in alliance 1 sooner then alliance 2.
 
That's about as brilliantly thought out as anything I could do to create the alliances,

Indeed, that's great IBC.

-other countries (Sweden, Portugal, USA...)*

I think it'd be better to get the USA on France's side, but it might be difficult with Canada being right next to the USA and all.

Portugal's definitely going to be with the UK of course, why Sweden?
 
I think it'd be better to get the USA on France's side, but it might be difficult with Canada being right next to the USA and all.

Near-impossibble, actually. The USA might stay neutral through the whole thing, though.

Portugal's definitely going to be with the UK of course, why Sweden?
There was this one incident at the start of the war where a Russian captain almost attacked the Swdish navy for apparently no good reson, but he was stopped before he did anything stupid. From what other members have claimed, the captain could have attacked the Swedes (thus comitting them in the war) before the Russians managed to stop him.
 
From what other members have claimed, the captain could have attacked the Swedes (thus comitting them in the war) before the Russians managed to stop him.

I imagine that would be butterflied away, the Captain may not be born depending on the PoD.
 

Xen

Banned
Actually I think the Ottoman Empire would be 100% likely to join the British-German Alliance rather than the Franco-Russian Alliance. The Ottomans knew the British were strong but thought the Germans were stronger and backed the wrong horse, however put the Germans and British together there is no way the Ottomans were going to side with the French and Russians. Especially since the French and Russians had designs for Ottoman territory (so did Britain, but they would likely view the French and Russians with greater suspicion)

Switch Austria-Hungary to side with the French and Russians, might have to have an earlier POD such as Austria remaining diplomatically neutral in the Crimean War, then have a less reconciliatory approach with Germany after the Austro-Prussian War which would make them natural allies of France and Russia. There will still be tension over what to do with Bosnia between Austria and Serbia though.

With a Franco-Russo-Austrian Alliance in place Italy will likely join the British-Prussian Alliance. Austria and France could very well over run Northern Italy and if they reach Rome could we see them try to reconstitute the Papal States?

If you want to be clever get rid of the Spanish-American War and have Spain join the Franco-Russo-Austrian Alliance where we would see the British occupying Puerto Rico and Cuba, as well as the Philippines. They will have to skate carefully with Puerto Rico and Cuba though as I am certain they do not want to draw the ire of the US and fight another bloody war. Perhaps they will simply recognize their independence and back pro-independence groups in those territories and help them secure their own Republic.
 
Actually I think the Ottoman Empire would be 100% likely to join the British-German Alliance rather than the Franco-Russian Alliance. The Ottomans knew the British were strong but thought the Germans were stronger and backed the wrong horse, however put the Germans and British together there is no way the Ottomans were going to side with the French and Russians. Especially since the French and Russians had designs for Ottoman territory (so did Britain, but they would likely view the French and Russians with greater suspicion)

This seems to me to be thinking purely in terms of 1914, when the Ottomans needed to escape from the Armenian reform package and when Germans had been helping run the army for some time.

Our PoD can be plenty before that. Need we have a Turkish revolution? We certainly needn't have the same Turkish revolution, and certainly not the same Balkan war. So we could have a completely differant government, completely differant territory, rather differant military circumstances...

As for the Russians: as I keep saying, the Armenian business was a device to control the straits (whethe rthe Russians could control the Dashnaks was another matter), not to mention that the Russian-Dashnak alliance is very easy to butterfly, and the claim to the straits was made once Russia was already at war. Russia's real goal was the passage of the straits: if that can be secured by treaty, why go to war for some largely worthless mountains? Russo-Ottoman alliance was not considere impossible even just before WW1 broke out, as a means for the Ottomans to duck out of the reform package and the Russians to get their passage at the expense of everybody else. Unlikely, but it was a serious worry.

What French territorial claims? Once France was at war, she was determined to secure her traditional interests in the Levant, true, but French bankers held lots of Ottoman government debt and were pro-Ottoman.

Switch Austria-Hungary to side with the French and Russians, might have to have an earlier POD such as Austria remaining diplomatically neutral in the Crimean War,

That's going to have big butterflies. Like, Russian might force a draw on points, and the whole diplomatic situation is changed immediately. It probably could lead to a *WW1 with the alliances in question, but for all we know "Germany" might be a completely differant state.

then have a less reconciliatory approach with Germany after the Austro-Prussian War which would make them natural allies of France and Russia.

The German alliance was a matter of domestic politics. The Hapsburgs never had any choice about it, but immediately after it was formed Germany asserted a special privelege in Hapsburg affairs (over the Czech crisis) which the German-Austrians were only too keen to accept.
 
The problem with a French-Austrian-Russian alliance is also that in this case, the previously seemingly invincible British-German alliance is not so invincible anymore. In this scenario, Germany has not only a two front war, but many more fronts. Typically, scenarios assume that either the Russians or the Austrians are allied to Germany. If the Russians are allies and the Austrians are enemies, this should ensure a quick victory by Germany, Russia, Italy, Serbia and Montenegro and Romania over the Austrians and hence a secured border. If Austria is on the German side and the Russians are the enemies, Austria has to guard its frontier and Germany is in the same situation as IOTL - only that the BEF is lacking if Britain is on the German side.

To conclude, Germany securing an alliance with Britain but ending with a French-Russian-Austrian hostile alliance is in a very difficult situation. Nevertheless, I think such an alliance is rather ASB and relies heavily on massive diplomatic failure of both Britain and Germany over decades.
 
I imagine that would be butterflied away, the Captain may not be born depending on the PoD.

I would have to check a couple of treads I participated in a few months ago to confirm, but AFAIK it was a very old navy officer (probably born before the preposed PODs). But anyway, I put the Swedes down as "optional", so the Russians might stop him ITTL as well.

Heck, depending on the diplomatic relations, a lot of countries could end up on both sides of the war. If the Germans take a "Russia first" strategy because Belgium is off limits, France might try to go through the Low countries to avoid A-L defences, bringing Belgium and the Netherlands into the war on the Anglo-German side.
 
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