Germany Tries Building Nuclear Weapons in the 1990s

CaliGuy

Banned
This is borderline-ASB, but I figured that I might as well ask this question here:

What if, after German reunification in 1990, Germany experiences a resurgence of (more mild) nationalism and thus tries building nuclear weapons in the 1990s?

How would the other Western countries--as well as both Eastern Europe and Russia--react to such a German move?

Also, could such a German move spark a nuclear arms race in Europe--especially in Eastern Europe--in this TL?

Any thoughts on this?
 
This is borderline-ASB, but I figured that I might as well ask this question here:

What if, after German reunification in 1990, Germany experiences a resurgence of (more mild) nationalism and thus tries building nuclear weapons in the 1990s?

How would the other Western countries--as well as both Eastern Europe and Russia--react to such a German move?

Also, could such a German move spark a nuclear arms race in Europe--especially in Eastern Europe--in this TL?

Any thoughts on this?

France and England feared exactly a reunited economic and military powerhouse in the middle of Europe that might be a threat one day. also the Eastern European countries would be on high alert, a nuclear armed reinsurgent Germany wouldn´t give a * on the previous treaties regarding the Oder-Neiße border. But that would be relatively ASB at that time, European Intergration was on it´s way, even with Thatcher still in charge in the UK. In 1992 the European Union was formed with the Maastrich treaty, a radicalisation after 1990 without major butterflies is unthinkable, although the financial problems resulted out of Unification already had been visible.
 
So, the creation of a non-Soviet/non-Communist Warsaw Pact?

Conceivably. Ukraine might not give up its nuclear weapons in 1994 if Germany is known to be developing them, and a nuclear-armed Germany is going to scare the Poles no matter what treaties they signed in 1990. Czechoslovakia too has had occasional shouting matches with Germany whenever they start talking about the Benes decrees. A super-Visegrad Group (now including Ukraine) or just more widespread nuclear proliferation in Europe could be the answer.
 

CaliGuy

Banned
Conceivably. Ukraine might not give up its nuclear weapons in 1994 if Germany is known to be developing them, and a nuclear-armed Germany is going to scare the Poles no matter what treaties they signed in 1990. Czechoslovakia too has had occasional shouting matches with Germany whenever they start talking about the Benes decrees. A super-Visegrad Group (now including Ukraine) or just more widespread nuclear proliferation in Europe could be the answer.
OK; also, though, could we see the Belgians and/or the Dutch develop nuclear weapons in this TL?
 
This is borderline-ASB, but I figured that I might as well ask this question here:

What if, after German reunification in 1990, Germany experiences a resurgence of (more mild) nationalism and thus tries building nuclear weapons in the 1990s?

How would the other Western countries--as well as both Eastern Europe and Russia--react to such a German move?

Also, could such a German move spark a nuclear arms race in Europe--especially in Eastern Europe--in this TL?

Any thoughts on this?

There would be a great opposition against it in the German population.
There was even in OTL-Germany a large opposition against the German participation in the Kosovo War in 1999.
A possible resurgence of nationalism wouldn't affect all parts of society equally, so there would be still many groups (Green party, peace movement, groups against nuclear energy, left wing groups) in society which would demonstrate against such a nuclear policy.
Other (more conservative) voters or politicians would criticize the government, since such a nuclear program would damage the foreign relations and the security of Germany.
The government could start such a program only in secrecy. A leak would create an enormous scandal which could lead to the downfall of the current government.
You should check, if such a nuclear program would ignore several international treaties signed by Germany. A continuation of the friendship with France would be impossible, as further projects of European Integration.
You need far more than "mild nationalism".

You are correct that this scenario is borderline-ASB.

A more realistic scenario for (West)German nuclear weapons would be possible, if you make Franz Josef Strauß (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Franz_Josef_Strauss) chancellor during the Cold War, this could lead in some cases to an a little bit more authoritarian (West)Germany (See "Spiegel" scandal) . When Strauß was minister of defence, he argued for submarines with nuclear engines for the German Navy.
 
They could almost develop nukes, so they would be able to complete the program on short notice
If a president wants to gut NATO, I don't think Britain, France, Poland etc would care that much.
 

nbcman

Donor
This is borderline-ASB, but I figured that I might as well ask this question here:

What if, after German reunification in 1990, Germany experiences a resurgence of (more mild) nationalism and thus tries building nuclear weapons in the 1990s?

How would the other Western countries--as well as both Eastern Europe and Russia--react to such a German move?

Also, could such a German move spark a nuclear arms race in Europe--especially in Eastern Europe--in this TL?

Any thoughts on this?

There were tens of thousands of US and Soviet / Russian troops in Germany through 1994 who may have something to say about it. Additionally as part of the Final Settlement Treaty in 1990, Germany affirmed their commitment to the Non-Proliferation Treaty. The Final Settlement Treaty could be considered void and the 4 powers could theoretically return.
 
Bearing in mind that Germany has had nuclear power since the 60s, the likelihood of them building a bomb is decidedly high. It's also widely known that the South Africans and Isrealis were helped by Germany during their pursuit of nuclear weapons.

Adenauer's government in the early 60's was attempting to get Polaris missiles.
 
There would be a great opposition against it in the German population.
There was even in OTL-Germany a large opposition against the German participation in the Kosovo War in 1999.
A possible resurgence of nationalism wouldn't affect all parts of society equally, so there would be still many groups (Green party, peace movement, groups against nuclear energy, left wing groups) in society which would demonstrate against such a nuclear policy.
Other (more conservative) voters or politicians would criticize the government, since such a nuclear program would damage the foreign relations and the security of Germany.
The government could start such a program only in secrecy. A leak would create an enormous scandal which could lead to the downfall of the current government.
You should check, if such a nuclear program would ignore several international treaties signed by Germany. A continuation of the friendship with France would be impossible, as further projects of European Integration.
You need far more than "mild nationalism".

You are correct that this scenario is borderline-ASB.

A more realistic scenario for (West)German nuclear weapons would be possible, if you make Franz Josef Strauß (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Franz_Josef_Strauss) chancellor during the Cold War, this could lead in some cases to an a little bit more authoritarian (West)Germany (See "Spiegel" scandal) . When Strauß was minister of defence, he argued for submarines with nuclear engines for the German Navy.

Strauss or not Strauss, neither the USSR, nor the USA, the UK and France would ever accept Germany becoming a nuclear military power. And most of all not Germany's western allies which want an allied but not too strong Germany. And just remember that there still are weser' troops stationed in Germany.

Germany taking the nuclear path against the will of the 4 occupying powers is literally a casus belli. So either Germany would understand the message and give-up its military nuclear projects, or the former allied of WW2 would literally force Germany into some kind of demilitarized country or even force It evolving into some kind of loose confederation that can develop again such military ambitions.
 
The german left, peace, ecological and anti-nuclear movements would go just about nuts. I suspect Wackersdorf would be a mild summer breeze compared to the storm unleashed by trying o build nuclear weapons at that period in Germany.
 
Strauss or not Strauss, neither the USSR, nor the USA, the UK and France would ever accept Germany becoming a nuclear military power. And most of all not Germany's western allies which want an allied but not too strong Germany. And just remember that there still are weser' troops stationed in Germany.

Germany taking the nuclear path against the will of the 4 occupying powers is literally a casus belli. So either Germany would understand the message and give-up its military nuclear projects, or the former allied of WW2 would literally force Germany into some kind of demilitarized country or even force It evolving into some kind of loose confederation that can develop again such military ambitions.

Strauss alone is not enough but a step in the right direction. If we combine this with more tensions during the Cold War in Europe, and some problems to finance nuclear rearmament in other countries of the NATO, we could maybe see under the right circumstances some change, if there is at the time a trend for more and more middle powers to start nuclear weapon programs. Such a hypotetical nuclear weapon program would be limited, and under strong supervision by the NATO allies.
I doubt that (West) Germany even could start a nuclear program against the will or in secret from the other NATO countries during the Cold War, because of the many foreign troops on German territory.

Such a scenario is highly unlikely but not as much unlikely as a 1990ies Germany which tries to develop nuclear weapons without any reasons.
 
OK; also, though, could we see the Belgians and/or the Dutch develop nuclear weapons in this TL?
Considering those countries already had essentially free nukes courtesy of the American weapon sharing program, I doubt even wack-o Germans would make that happen.
 
There were tens of thousands of US and Soviet / Russian troops in Germany through 1994 who may have something to say about it. Additionally as part of the Final Settlement Treaty in 1990, Germany affirmed their commitment to the Non-Proliferation Treaty. The Final Settlement Treaty could be considered void and the 4 powers could theoretically return.
Correct. Any German nuclear program or even talk of it would quickly be stomped into the groud by NATO allies. Even today, more so in the 1990s.

It's important to remember Thatcher was against German reunification to begin with, it took years for her to soften her position somewhat, and even Miterrand told Gorbachev's government "France by no means wants German reunification, although it realises that in the end it is inevitable."

So the animosity towards German reunification in the 1990s was palpable, a German nuclear program would positively drive European relations towards the edge, with military intervention or a "palace coup" by NATO to replace the German leadership highly likely.
 
Weren't those nukes under U.S. control, though?
They still are. The thing is, the minute there's a nuclear threat, nuclear proliferation treaties lose their binding force, and the warheads will be attached to Dutch F16s. It's still fully functional nuclear deterrence. Developing domestic nuclear capability wouldn't be worth it even if Germany becomes more nationalistic, which probably wouldn't actually be a military threat to the Netherlands.
 
In the movie 2001: A Space Odyssey, there is a German Luftwaffe orbital nuclear weapons platform orbiting Earth along with USAF and French Armee de l'Aire orbital nukes and also a Chinese PLAAF ASAT weapon.
 
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